1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The scale of the central bank's bond purchases in October was significantly lower than market expectations. The subsequent bond - buying rhythm should be objectively evaluated, and there is still significant room for the total scale of the central bank's bond purchases compared to overseas countries. The specific scale is difficult to determine, with a monthly purchase of 200 billion yuan being a relatively fast pace [1][2][3]. - The bond market's α - mining strategy has entered the middle stage. The market is currently focused on the implementation of the new fund fee regulations and their subsequent impacts. The new regulations may drive some funds with a strong preference for liquidity to redeem funds, but it is expected that the 10 - year treasury bond is unlikely to reach new highs [4][5]. - In the interest rate bond market, the bond market was in a weak and volatile state due to the central bank's bond purchases being lower than expectations and concerns about the new fund regulations. The central bank's OMO had a large - scale net withdrawal, and the capital market was balanced and loose. The net financing of treasury bonds increased, while that of policy - financial bonds, local bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased. The term spreads of treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds both narrowed [10][11][55]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Objective View of the Scale and Rhythm of the Central Bank's Bond Purchases 3.1.1 Overseas Reference - Compared with overseas countries, the proportion of the central bank's treasury bond holdings in its total assets and the overall treasury bond market in China is relatively low. For example, in Japan, the eurozone, Canada, and the United States, the proportion of central bank treasury bond holdings in total assets is over 60%, while in China, it is about 4.7%. The proportion of central bank treasury bond holdings in the total treasury bond market in Japan and the eurozone is 48% and 36% respectively, while in Canada and the United States, it is around 11.9% and 14.1%, and in China, it is about 5.7% [2][15]. - Historically, the proportion of the Federal Reserve's treasury bond holdings in the total US treasury bonds was around 9 - 10% before 2008, and it gradually compressed to around 10% near the end of each round of QT after 2008 [2][16]. 3.1.2 Scale Deduction - If the central bank's annual bond - buying increment is 1 trillion yuan, it will not be until 2030 that the proportion of bond - holding scale to the total treasury bond scale approaches the Federal Reserve's normal - state level of 10%. If the increment is expanded to 2 - 3 trillion yuan, this proportion can be reached by the end of 2026 [22]. - Currently, the central bank has a high degree of flexibility in bond - buying scale. It is difficult to directly compare with last year's level. A monthly net purchase of about 100 billion yuan is a neutral level, while a monthly net purchase of 200 billion yuan may lead to a smoother year - end market trend [25][26]. 3.2 Bond Market Strategy: The α - Mining Strategy Enters the Middle Stage - Since October, the bond market has continued to fluctuate within a narrow range, mainly fluctuating around 1.8%. The market is currently mainly concerned with the implementation of the new fund fee regulations and their subsequent impacts [28]. - The impact of the new fund fee regulations is relatively controllable. It is expected that the 10 - year treasury bond is unlikely to reach new highs, but the regulations may drive some funds to redeem funds, with the estimated redemption scale being around 500 billion yuan. The impact on the bond market can be referenced to the small - scale redemption tides since the second quarter of 2025 [32][33][39]. - The 10 - year treasury bond is still in a volatile market, and the α - mining strategy has entered the middle stage. For perpetual bonds and credit bonds, short - term profit - taking is advisable, and the right - side allocation opportunities should be grasped after the redemption disturbances. For interest rate bonds, different varieties have different investment strategies. For example, local bonds with a maturity of over 6 years have seen a significant decline in their variety spreads, and the medium - term spreads still have some room for compression but are approaching the central level. The purchase of treasury bonds can be carried out in a dumbbell - shaped manner [40][41][44]. 3.3 Interest Rate Bond Market Review: The Bond Market was in a Weak and Volatile State due to the Central Bank's Bond Purchases being Lower than Expectations and Concerns about the New Fund Regulations 3.3.1 Capital Market - The central bank's OMO had a large - scale net withdrawal, and the capital market was balanced and loose. The issuance price of 1 - year national and stock - holding bank certificates of deposit decreased, and the weighted price of DR007 also decreased [11]. 3.3.2 Primary Issuance - The net financing of treasury bonds increased, while that of policy - financial bonds, local bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased [61]. 3.3.3 Benchmark Changes - The term spreads of treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds both narrowed. The short - end yields of treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds increased by 2.19BP and 2.51BP respectively, and the long - end yields increased by 1.88BP and 2.35BP respectively. The 10Y - 1Y spread of treasury bonds narrowed by 0.31BP to 40.97BP, and that of policy - financial bonds narrowed by 0.16BP to 33.68BP [55].