1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market in Q1 2025 was affected by "tight funds" and "negative Carry", with the central bank's stance and operations playing important roles. The central bank's statements and actions in Q1 led to a multi - level impact on the bond market, including the reversal of expectations, actual operational impacts, and the collapse of the long - position [4][9]. - Since Q2, the central bank has rarely mentioned concerns about bond market yields, with the key objective shifting to stable growth. The central bank has repeatedly mentioned increasing counter - cyclical adjustment, maintaining ample liquidity, and strongly supporting the real economy [16]. - Looking ahead, if interest rates show a rapid downward trend, the central bank may issue risk warnings again. The bond market is currently in a range - bound oscillation, and in terms of strategy, it is necessary to maintain duration and increase the weight of band trading in an environment of low coupons and expensive funds [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Directory 3.1 Q1 Bond Market and Central Bank's Concerns - The bond market in Q1 was characterized by "tight funds" and "negative Carry". The central bank mentioned the excessive decline of long - term bond yields in several articles in January. The bond market showed some immunity to the central bank's "verbal intervention", and long - term bond yields remained in the range of 1.60% - 1.65% [4][5]. - The central bank's influence on the bond market in Q1 was multi - faceted. It reversed the expectation of a "moderately loose" monetary policy, increased the central level of capital interest rates while maintaining reasonable and ample liquidity, and led to the collapse of long - positions in the bond market in February [8][9]. - From the perspective of the interval returns of medium - and long - term bond funds, 75% of public funds in January - February 2025 were in a loss state, indicating that the short - term long - position clustering in the bond market was actually broken [10]. 3.2 Marginal Changes in the Central Bank's Stance on the Bond Market - There may be no so - called "desirable point". The central bank's articles this year mainly focused on "curbing the excessive decline of long - term bonds" and "preventing interest rate risks". Referring to the first article after the bond market correction at the beginning of the year, minus a 10bp policy interest rate cut, the corresponding 10 - year treasury bond yield may be 1.55% [13][16]. - Since Q2, the central bank has rarely mentioned concerns about bond market yields, and its key goal has shifted to stable growth. After the equal - tariff implementation on April 3, the central bank's short - term policy goal shifted from "preventing idle funds" and "stabilizing the exchange rate" in Q1 to "stable growth" [16]. - Historically, the central bank's risk warnings in Q1 preceded the inflection point of interest rates. If interest rates decline rapidly in the future, the central bank may issue risk warnings again. Currently, the bond market is in a range - bound oscillation, and strategies should focus on maintaining duration and increasing band trading [16].