宏观周报 2025 年 08 月 24 日 新型政策性金融工具即将落地 宏观研究团队 ——宏观周报 | 何宁（分析师） | 沈美辰（分析师） | | --- | --- | | hening@kysec.cn | shenmeichen@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522110002 | 证书编号：S0790524110002 | |  | 国内宏观政策：新型政策性金融工具即将落地 | 过去两周（8 月 9 日-8 月 23 日）国内宏观主要聚焦以下几个方面： 经济增长方面，政策包括国家主席习近平在《促进民营经济健康发展、高质量发 展》中强调要扎扎实实落实促进民营经济发展的政策措施；国务院总理李强主持 国务院第九次全体会议，强调持续激发消费潜力，系统清理消费领域限制性措施； 国常会讨论进一步强化财税金融等政策支持，综合施策释放内需潜力等。 基建与产业方面, 《服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策实施方案》发布，对服务业经 营主体贷款给予财政贴息；工信部等六部门部署进一步规范光伏产业竞争秩序工 作，要求加强产业调控、遏制低价无序竞争；国家发展改革委将报批加快设立投 放新型政策性金融工具，地方正积极筹备 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 震荡 | 全面降息可能性下降，加上股市 风险偏好上升 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 8 月 21 日） 专业研究·创造价值 1/2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各国债期货均震荡小幅下跌。昨日央行公布了 8 月 LPR 利率，维持不变，符 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent recovery in the market has led to an increase in fund issuance, with several funds announcing early closure of their fundraising periods, indicating a positive shift in investor sentiment towards the A-share market [1][5]. Fund Issuance - Multiple funds have announced early closure of their fundraising periods since August, including浦银安盛医疗创新混合, which closed on August 19 instead of August 21 [2]. - Other funds such as长城港股医疗保健精选混合,华富中证A500指数, and银华上证科创板综合增强策略ETF also ended their fundraising early in August [2]. - Smaller fund companies like百嘉基金 have also followed suit, with百嘉科技创新混合 closing early on August 15 [3]. Rapid Fund Deployment - New funds have been quick to deploy capital after establishment, with泰康资源精选股票型发起式 closing its fundraising on August 8 and starting to build positions shortly thereafter [4]. - Similarly,兴业科技创新混合型发起式 also closed early on August 7 and began trading shortly after [4]. - Other funds like汇丰晋信港股通核心资产股票发起式 and鹏扬研究精选混合 have also shown rapid deployment of capital post-establishment [4]. Market Outlook - The outlook for the second half of the year appears optimistic, with expectations of continued liquidity in the stock market due to a "moderately loose monetary policy" from the central bank [5]. - Increased investor risk appetite is anticipated, supported by improving corporate earnings and ongoing policy measures [5]. - The A-share market is expected to maintain an upward trend, with a focus on sectors such as AI, military, industrial metals, banking, insurance, and pharmaceuticals [5].

● 本报记者 万宇 随着市场回暖，基金发行逐渐升温，多只近期发行的基金宣布提前结束募集，一些新基金还在成立后火 速建仓。公募基金机构认为，上证指数突破前期高点，权益市场有望在赚钱效应带动下持续提振投资者 风险偏好，资金整体流入A股市场的态势料延续。 多只基金提前结募 8月以来，多只基金宣布提前结束募集。 8月15日，长城基金、华富基金、银华基金、西部利得基金均发布了提前结募公告，旗下长城港股医疗 保健精选混合（QDII）、华富中证A500指数、银华上证科创板综合增强策略ETF、西部利得中证A500 指数增强均提前结束募集。 一些小型基金公司也有基金提前结束募集，比如百嘉基金8月12日发布公告称，百嘉科技创新混合于8月 4日开始募集，原定募集截止日为8月22日，基金管理人百嘉基金决定提前结束募集，认购截止日提前至 8月15日。 新基金快速建仓 8月18日，浦银安盛基金发布公告称，基金管理人浦银安盛基金与基金托管人招商银行协商一致，决定 提前结束浦银安盛医疗创新混合的募集，募集截止日由原定的8月21日提前至8月19日。 一些基金公司在8月有多只基金提前结束募集，比如易方达基金8月9日发布公告称，易方达价值回报混 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Glass futures have good prospects for continued long - positions. The supply is shrinking, and the demand has new growth points, so it's advisable to continue going long on glass futures [3][4][5]. - The short - term A - share market will continue to oscillate upward at a high level. The central bank reaffirms a moderately loose monetary policy, and many places in the property market are accelerating the deployment of urban renewal [8][9]. - Gold is favored by the market as the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US increases, and currently, it is in a short - term platform with small oscillations [12]. - Iron ore has strong fundamental support and is in a resonance upward trend. It should be treated with a high - level wide - range oscillation mindset recently [16][17]. - For glass, considering the improvement of the macro - environment and effective lower support, a low - buying strategy should be maintained [20][21]. - Methanol in ports should be treated with a bearish and oscillating view as the inventory continues to accumulate [24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Futures - **Supply**: Policy promotes capacity clearance, and 4 production lines with a daily melting capacity of 2800 tons have stopped kilns, resulting in a shrinking supply [4]. - **Demand**: Although the demand from new commercial housing completion has declined, there is strong demand in urban renewal, old community renovation, interior decoration, the automotive industry, and the home appliance and kitchenware field, and export demand is also increasing [4]. A - share Market - **Market Performance**: On Monday, the three major A - share indexes opened higher, slightly declined, and then reached new highs in this round of rebound. The Shanghai Composite Index hit a 10 - year high [8][9]. - **News**: The central bank reaffirms a moderately loose monetary policy, and many places in the property market are accelerating the deployment of urban renewal [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The short - term market will continue to oscillate upward at a high level [8]. Gold - **Market Driver**: The July non - farm payrolls data was significantly lower than expected, especially the significant downward revision of May and June data, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US, which is beneficial to gold [12]. - **Market Condition**: Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is in a short - term platform with small oscillations [12]. Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: Steel mills' profitability has improved, iron - water production remains high, and the black - industry chain is in a healthy state, presenting a resonance upward trend [16][17]. - **Technical Aspect**: There was an adjustment today, and it should be treated with a high - level wide - range oscillation mindset recently [16]. Glass - **Supply and Demand**: The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak [21]. - **Market Driver**: The main driving force for the recent market is the improvement and strengthening of the domestic economic recovery expectation [21]. - **Technical Aspect**: The lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy should be maintained [20]. Methanol - **Port Inventory**: Last week, the methanol port inventory continued to accumulate. Although the提货 in the mainstream storage areas in East China increased with a small amount of re - export and ship departure, the stable supply of foreign vessels led to continuous inventory accumulation [24]. - **Market Outlook**: It should be treated with a bearish and oscillating view [24].

Economic Performance - In July, the industrial production growth rate was 5.7%, down from 6.8% in June, indicating a slowdown in production[12][14]. - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) for January to July was 288,229 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%, a decrease from 2.8% previously[12][14]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods in July reached 38,780 billion yuan, growing by 3.7% year-on-year, which is a decline of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month[12][14][23]. Investment Trends - Infrastructure investment decreased by 1.4 percentage points, while manufacturing investment growth fell by 1.3 percentage points in July[20][28]. - Real estate development investment from January to July was 53,580 billion yuan, down 12.0% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.8 percentage points[21][28]. Consumer Behavior - Retail sales growth for categories excluding automobiles was 4.3%, indicating a shift in consumer spending patterns, particularly a decline in automotive sales[12][23][27]. - The recovery in dining consumption suggests that the overall decline in consumption is primarily driven by a drop in retail sales of goods[27][29]. Policy Outlook - The government is expected to implement more proactive fiscal policies and maintain moderately loose monetary policies to support economic recovery in the second half of the year[5][32]. - Continued focus on infrastructure and real estate investment is anticipated to stabilize fixed asset investment and support economic growth[5][32]. Risks - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in international financial conditions, and unexpected shifts in China-US policies[6][33].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China emphasizes that maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy is essential for improving the quality and efficiency of credit allocation [2][1] - As of the end of Q2 2025, the balance of funds utilized by insurance companies exceeded 36 trillion yuan, reaching 36.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.4% [3][1] - China Shenhua Energy announced the acquisition of 13 coal, electricity, and chemical enterprises from State Energy Investment Group, with the transaction involving assets worth 250 billion yuan [1][3] Group 2 - The report from the People's Bank of China outlines the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, considering both domestic and international economic conditions [2] - The stock investment balance and proportion of both life insurance and property insurance companies have been continuously increasing [3] - The performance of brokerage firms in the first half of the year has been generally positive, with 33 firms reporting net profits, and several firms showing significant year-on-year growth in net profit [3]

Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China released the 2025 Q2 monetary policy execution report, emphasizing the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy [2] - The report highlights the importance of promoting a reasonable recovery in prices and maintaining them at a reasonable level as a key consideration for monetary policy [2] - Financial policies will focus on supply-side efforts to create effective demand through high-quality supply [2] Company Announcements - Huahong Semiconductor (688347.SH) announced plans to acquire control of Shanghai Huahong Microelectronics Co., Ltd. to resolve competition issues related to its IPO commitments [4] - China Shenhua (601088.SH) plans to acquire 100% equity stakes in multiple subsidiaries from the State Energy Group and intends to raise funds through a private placement of A-shares [4] - Several companies in the AI computing sector, including Dayuan Pump Industry and Jintian Co., issued risk warnings, indicating potential short-term price corrections due to high speculative trading [5] Energy Sector Developments - Sinopec's "Deep Earth Engineering - Sichuan-Chongqing Natural Gas Base" achieved a significant breakthrough with the addition of 1,245.88 billion cubic meters of proven geological reserves in the Yongchuan shale gas field [8] - The development supports the construction of a natural gas production base with a capacity of over 100 billion cubic meters, contributing to clean energy supply for the Yangtze River Economic Belt [8] Trade and Tariff Updates - President Trump announced that there are currently no plans to impose tariffs on China for purchasing Russian oil, following a meeting with President Putin [7] - Trump indicated that he may consider tariffs on semiconductor imports, with rates potentially reaching up to 300%, impacting U.S. semiconductor stocks negatively [10]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy to promote reasonable price recovery and effective demand creation [2] - The report highlights the importance of tracking the transmission and actual effects of previous policies to enhance flexibility and continuity [2] Group 2 - Huahong Semiconductor plans to acquire the controlling stake in Shanghai Huahong Microelectronics to resolve competition issues related to its IPO commitments [3] - China Shenhua intends to purchase 100% stakes in several energy companies from the State Energy Group, with the transaction approved by its board [3] Group 3 - The AI computing power sector shows strong potential, but some stocks have experienced excessive short-term price speculation, indicating a need for caution [4] - The shale gas sector in China is witnessing significant growth, with production exceeding 25 billion cubic meters last year, accounting for 10% of total natural gas output [6] Group 4 - The U.S. plans to impose tariffs on imported chips and semiconductors, with rates potentially reaching up to 300%, causing a decline in U.S. chip stocks [7][9] - The Trump administration has expanded tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, affecting hundreds of derivative products [10] Group 5 - The meeting between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin did not result in any agreements, but both leaders expressed a desire to improve bilateral relations [11] - Upcoming announcements include the release of the LPR and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes, which may impact market expectations [12] Group 6 - Major U.S. indices reached historical highs, with mixed performances among large tech stocks, while Chinese concept stocks saw an overall increase [13] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission approved IPO registrations for three companies, indicating ongoing market activity [14] Group 7 - A total of 43 companies will have their restricted shares unlocked this week, with a total market value of approximately 952.48 billion yuan, highlighting significant market movements [16][17]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes a moderately accommodative monetary policy to support high-quality economic development and ensure a favorable financial environment for sustained economic recovery [1][2]. Monetary Policy Implementation - The PBOC plans to implement a detailed and moderately accommodative monetary policy, ensuring liquidity remains ample and aligning social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations [2]. - The report highlights the importance of promoting reasonable price recovery as a key consideration in monetary policy, aiming to maintain prices at a reasonable level [2]. Structural Support and Financial Stability - The PBOC aims to utilize both the total and structural functions of monetary policy tools to support sectors such as technology innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilize foreign trade [3]. - The report stresses the need to maintain the stability of the RMB exchange rate and prevent excessive fluctuations, enhancing the resilience of the foreign exchange market [3]. Price Level Trends - The report indicates a moderate recovery in price levels, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) turning positive in June, and core CPI showing a gradual increase since April [4]. - Factors influencing price levels include ongoing economic improvements and efforts to address low-price competition in certain industries, which are expected to positively impact reasonable price recovery [4]. Credit Structure Optimization - The report discusses the continuous optimization of the credit structure, with a significant portion of new loans directed towards strategic sectors and areas needing support, such as technology and green finance [5]. - The proportion of medium- and long-term loans is increasing, providing stable funding for high-quality economic development, while direct financing's share is also rising [5]. Enhancing Service Consumption - The report highlights the importance of improving high-quality service consumption supply, with a focus on creating effective demand through high-quality supply [6][7]. - Financial policies will target supply-side improvements, ensuring ample liquidity and lowering financing costs to foster consumption growth [6][7].