021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 铁矿石日评 日期 2025 年 11 月 18 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：11月17日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2601 | ...

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 日期 2025 年 11 月 14 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：11月13日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2601 | 3038 | 3040 ...

Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current supply of iron ore has growth expectations, while demand continues to weaken under the suppression of downstream steel enterprises' profits. The overall fundamentals are weak, leading to a weak operation of ore prices. The current iron ore futures market lacks a clear mainline logic, and the price fluctuates within the previous trading range. It is necessary to observe whether there are signs of improvement in steel enterprises' profits and the support level of the lower edge of the previous trading range. Considering that the current rebar - iron ore ratio is at a historically low level, one can try the arbitrage strategy of "going long on rebar and short on iron ore" [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Future Outlook 1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - On November 6, the main quotes of major iron ore external markets remained flat compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of major - grade iron ores at Qingdao Port were mainly flat compared with the previous day. Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract continued to decline, and the green bar of the daily MACD indicator has enlarged since yesterday's death - cross [9]. 1.2 Future Outlook - In terms of supply, the shipments from Australia and Brazil have rebounded, and the arrivals have significantly increased after two consecutive weeks of low levels. Considering that the cumulative shipments in the past four weeks reached 109.784 billion tons, a 3.78% increase compared with the same period last month, and as the end of the year approaches, the shipment volume is expected to remain at a relatively high level. The arrivals in November are expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level, showing a pattern of being low in the first half and high in the second half. The first shipment of iron ore from Simandou in Guinea by Rio Tinto is expected to be in November, with a relatively low short - term shipment volume and limited actual impact, but the price of far - month iron ore contracts may be suppressed under the expectation of increased supply. - In terms of demand, the current daily average pig iron output has continued to decline, remaining below 2.4 million tons for two consecutive weeks, and the recent decline has been significant, mainly due to the continuous narrowing of steel production profits, with more than half of steel enterprises in a loss state. It is expected that the pig iron output will continue to decline in the near future. For the five major steel products, both production and demand have declined. Considering the gradually cooling weather, the demand for construction steel is expected to be further suppressed. - In terms of inventory, steel mills have returned to the state of replenishing inventory on demand, with the inventory available days at a relatively low level of 20 - 21 days this year. The port inventory has continued to accumulate and has now reached 145 million tons, and it is expected that the port inventory will continue to accumulate slightly in the future [10][11]. 2. Industry News - According to Mysteel data, from October 27 to November 2, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.7436 million square meters, a 3% increase month - on - month and a 35.9% decrease year - on - year. During the same period, the total transaction (signing) area of second - hand housing in 10 key cities was 2.1225 million square meters, a 5.9% decrease month - on - month and an 18.5% decrease year - on - year [12]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices of major iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade, low - grade ores and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot and January contract at Qingdao Port, the shipments from Brazil and Australia, the arrivals at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization, major port iron ore trading volume, steel mill iron ore inventory available days, imported sintered powder ore inventory, port iron ore inventory and dredging volume, sample steel mill tax - free pig iron cost, blast furnace and electric furnace start - up rates and capacity utilization rates, national daily average pig iron output, apparent consumption of five major steel products, weekly production of five major steel products, and steel mill inventory of five major steel products. All data sources are Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [16][20][26]

Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: November 5, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The current supply of iron ore has growth expectations, while demand continues to weaken under the pressure of downstream steel mills' profits. The overall fundamentals are weak, leading to a weak operation of ore prices. The current iron ore futures price fluctuates within the previous trading range, and it is necessary to observe whether there are signs of improvement in steel mills' profits and the support level of the lower edge of the previous trading range. Considering that the current rebar-iron ore ratio is at a historically low level, one can try the "long rebar, short iron ore" arbitrage strategy [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Future Outlook 1.1 Market Review - On November 4, the main iron ore futures contract 2601 oscillated downward, opened lower, then oscillated and declined, and oscillated in the afternoon, closing at 775.5 yuan/ton, down 1.71% [7]. - The prices of major iron ore external quotes decreased by 0.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of major grade iron ores at Qingdao Port decreased by 5 - 18 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [8]. - The KDJ indicator of the daily chart of the iron ore 2601 contract continued to decline after forming a death cross yesterday; the red bar of the MACD indicator of the daily chart of the iron ore 2601 contract narrowed for two consecutive trading days [9]. 1.2 Future Outlook - Supply: The shipments from Australia and Brazil have rebounded, and the arrivals have significantly rebounded after two consecutive weeks of low levels. Considering that the cumulative shipments in the past four weeks were 109.784 million tons, a 3.78% increase compared with the same period last month, and as the end of the year approaches, it is expected that the subsequent shipment volume will remain at a relatively high level. It is expected that the arrival volume in November will oscillate at a relatively high level, showing a trend of being low in the first half and high in the second half. In addition, according to Rio Tinto, the first shipment of iron ore from Simandou in Guinea will be made in November. Although the short-term shipment volume is not high and the actual impact is limited, under the expectation of increased supply, the prices of far-month iron ore contracts may be suppressed [10][11]. - Demand: The current daily average pig iron output has continued to decline, and has been below 2.4 million tons for two consecutive weeks, with a significant decline recently. This is mainly due to the continuous narrowing of steel production profits, and more than half of the steel mills are in a loss - making state. It is expected that the pig iron output will continue to decline in the near future. In terms of the five major steel products, both the production and demand of steel have recovered, which deviates from the pig iron output data. It is necessary to observe the sustainability of the subsequent demand recovery. Considering the gradually cold weather, the demand for construction steel may be suppressed [11]. - Inventory: Currently, steel mills have returned to the state of replenishing inventory on demand, and the inventory available days are at a relatively low level of 20 - 21 days this year. The port inventory has continued to accumulate and has now increased to 145 million tons. It is expected that the port inventory will continue to accumulate slightly in the future [11]. 2. Industry News - According to Mysteel data, from October 27 to November 2, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.7436 million square meters, a 3% increase compared with the previous week and a 35.9% decrease compared with the same period last year. During the same period, the total transaction (signing) area of second - hand housing in 10 key cities was 2.1225 million square meters, a 5.9% decrease compared with the previous week and an 18.5% decrease compared with the same period last year [12]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including the prices, trading volumes, and open interests of steel and iron ore futures contracts, the inventory and shipment data of iron ore, and the production and consumption data of steel products, with data sources from the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Dalian Commodity Exchange websites, and Mysteel [5][8][15]