Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The domestic macro situation is favorable for non - ferrous metals this week. The copper price has obvious support at the bottom, and attention should be paid to restocking opportunities around 7.6 - 7.7. The aluminum market has a short - term good fundamental situation, and attention should be paid to demand and anti - arbitrage opportunities. The zinc price fluctuates upward, and attention should be paid to the squeeze - out market and arbitrage opportunities. The nickel market has a general short - term fundamental situation, and attention can be paid to the contraction opportunity of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio. The stainless - steel market has a weak fundamental situation, and attention should be paid to policy trends. The lead price has a slight correction, and it is expected to fluctuate between 16800 - 17500 next week. The tin price fluctuates widely, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The industrial silicon market is expected to change from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction, and the disk is expected to fluctuate. The lithium carbonate price is expected to fluctuate, and the downward inflection point needs to see significant inventory accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot goods [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 18 to 24, the spot premium had a change of - 30, the waste - refined copper price difference had a change of - 67, the SHFE inventory had a change of 648, etc. - **Market Situation**: Domestically, the GDP data in the second quarter is good, and the "anti - involution" policy on commodities boosts the non - ferrous market. The refined - waste price difference has shrunk significantly, the refined copper rod operating rate has rebounded, and the spot premium and downstream restocking sentiment are good. The spot import window has opened once this week, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of long - position import logistics in the third and fourth quarters. The market is insensitive to tariff pricing, overseas liquidity is loose with a possible interest - rate cut in the second half of the year, and the domestic downstream operating rate is okay in the off - season. Attention should be paid to the possibility of copper logistics reversal [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 18 to 24, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 120, the domestic alumina price increased by 4, the SHFE social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory increased by 3300. - **Market Situation**: Supply has increased slightly, with aluminum ingot imports providing an increment from January to May. The demand in July is expected to weaken seasonally, with flat supply and demand. The inventory is expected to be balanced in July. The short - term fundamental situation is okay, and attention should be paid to demand. In the context of low inventory, attention should be paid to the inter - month and internal - external anti - arbitrage [1] Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 18 to 24, the zinc price fluctuated upward, the domestic social inventory was stable, and the LME inventory decreased by 1575. - **Market Situation**: In July, the domestic TC increased, and some smelters had maintenance, but new production capacity in the southwest and central China was put into operation. Domestic demand weakened seasonally, and overseas demand in Europe was weak. The domestic social inventory increased slowly, and the LME inventory decreased after May, increasing the risk of short - squeezing. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see the sustainability of the short - squeezing market and manage positions. In the long - term, it is advisable to short on rallies. Internal - external positive arbitrage can be held, and attention can be paid to inter - month positive arbitrage opportunities [2] Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 18 to 24, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 700. - **Market Situation**: The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, the demand is weak, and the premium is stable. The domestic and overseas nickel plate inventories have increased slightly. The tariff agreement between Indonesia and the US has no direct impact on pure nickel. The short - term fundamental situation is general, and the macro - situation is favorable for commodities. Attention can be paid to the contraction opportunity of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [3] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 18 to 24, the prices of 304 cold - rolled coils, 304 hot - rolled coils, etc., remained unchanged. - **Market Situation**: Since late May, some steel mills have reduced production passively. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and some restocking has increased due to the macro - environment. The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remain stable. The inventories in Xijiao and Foshan have decreased slightly, and the exchange warehouse receipts have continued to decrease slightly. The fundamental situation is weak, and attention should be paid to policy trends [3] Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 18 to 24, the lead price decreased slightly, the domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory increased by 6175. - **Market Situation**: The supply side has weak scrap volume, tight waste battery demand, and low operating rate of recycled lead. The demand side has high battery inventory, flat battery operating rate, and weakening peak - season expectation. The refined - waste price difference is 0, and the inventory in Jiyuan is tight. It is expected that the supply will increase slightly in July, and there will be inventory accumulation. Affected by the supply - side reform sentiment of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the lead price is expected to fluctuate between 16800 - 17500 next week [6] Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 18 to 24, the tin price fluctuated widely, the domestic inventory increased, and the LME inventory remained unchanged. - **Market Situation**: The supply side has low processing fees at the mine end, some domestic smelters reducing production and entering the maintenance period, and possible slight decline in domestic smelting output in July and August. Overseas, there are signals of production resumption in Wa State, and the import volume from the DRC in June exceeded expectations. The demand side has limited solder elasticity, strong expectation of decline in terminal electronics and photovoltaic growth, and increasing domestic inventory. The LME inventory is at a low level, but the inventory - accumulation inflection point is emerging. The short - term supply and demand are both weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [8] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 18 to 24, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 165, and the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 165. - **Market Situation**: The operating rate of leading enterprises has decreased again due to power - station problems, and there is no expected resumption date. There is slight production resumption in Yunnan and Sichuan, with low operating rate in Yunnan. The monthly output in July and subsequent months is expected to decline from the previous significant increase, and the supply - demand balance has changed to inventory reduction. The basis has strengthened rapidly, stimulating downstream speculative and restocking sentiment. The industrial silicon disk is expected to fluctuate if the operating rate does not recover significantly in the short term [10] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 18 to 24, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 100, and the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 100. - **Market Situation**: Affected by factors such as warehouse - receipt game, supply - side news disturbance, and weak - demand expectation repair, the lithium carbonate futures price has continued to rise. The basis has weakened slightly, and the market trading is mainly in the trader segment. The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory pressure in the intermediate link is gradually accumulating. The upstream has weak delivery willingness, and the downstream large enterprises actively receive goods. The lithium carbonate price is expected to fluctuate, and the downward inflection point needs to see significant inventory accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot goods [12]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The domestic macro situation is favorable for non - ferrous metals this week. The Q2 GDP data is good, and the anti - involution policy on commodities has led to expectations of supply - side reform, which boosts the non - ferrous metals sector. For copper, the price has obvious support at the bottom, and attention should be paid to restocking opportunities around 7.6 - 7.7. For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and reverse arbitrage opportunities. For zinc, short - term observation of the squeeze - out market is recommended, with long - term short - selling on rallies; long - short arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets can be held, and attention can be paid to positive arbitrage opportunities between months. For nickel, the short - term fundamentals are average, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio. For stainless steel, the fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to future policy trends. For lead, it is expected to fluctuate between 16800 - 17500 next week. For tin, short - term observation is recommended due to the coexistence of raw material supply disturbances and consumption decline expectations. For industrial silicon, if the start - up rate does not recover significantly in the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate. For lithium carbonate, the absolute price is expected to fluctuate, and a downward turning point requires significant inventory accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot goods [1][4][5][8][11][14][16] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the spot premium increased by 40, the scrap - refined copper spread increased by 440, the SHFE inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 10062. The LME inventory decreased by 100, and the LME cancelled warrants decreased by 1500 [1] - **Market Analysis**: The domestic macro situation is favorable, the scrap - refined spread has shrunk significantly, the refined copper rod start - up rate has rebounded faster than expected, and the spot import window has opened. The market is less sensitive to tariff pricing, overseas liquidity is loose with a possible interest rate cut in the second half of the year, and the domestic downstream start - up rate is okay during the off - season. Attention should be paid to the possibility of a reversal in copper logistics [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 190, the social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory increased by 3725. The spot import profit decreased by 246.21, and the three - month import profit decreased by 72.82 [1] - **Market Analysis**: Supply has increased slightly, with imports from January to May providing an increment. The demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, with flat supply and demand. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and reverse arbitrage opportunities in the context of low inventory [1] Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 500, the social inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE inventory remained unchanged. The LME inventory decreased by 875, and the LME cancelled warrants increased by 38425 [4] - **Market Analysis**: The zinc price has fluctuated upwards this week. The domestic TC in July has increased compared to June, and new production capacity in the southwest and central China has been realized. Domestic demand has weakened seasonally, and overseas demand in Europe is weak. The domestic social inventory has increased, and the overseas LME inventory has decreased. There is an increased risk of short - squeezing in lead and zinc, and attention should be paid to the resonance between domestic and foreign markets [4] Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 1850, the spot import return decreased by 222.41, and the LME C - 3M decreased by 12 [5] - **Market Analysis**: The pure nickel production remains at a high level, the demand is weak, and the premiums are stable. Both domestic and overseas nickel plate inventories have increased slightly. The tariff agreement between Indonesia and the US has no direct impact on pure nickel. The short - term fundamentals are average, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [5] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the price of waste stainless steel increased by 200 [5] - **Market Analysis**: Steel mills have partially reduced production passively since late May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and some restocking has increased due to the macro environment. The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remain stable. The inventories in Xijiao and Foshan have decreased slightly, and the exchange warehouse receipts have continued to decrease slightly. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to future policy trends [5] Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the spot premium increased by 10, the social inventory situation is not clear, and the SHFE inventory remained unchanged. The LME inventory decreased by 3475, and the LME cancelled warrants increased by 500 [8] - **Market Analysis**: The lead price has slightly declined this week. The scrap volume is weak year - on - year, the waste battery supply is tight, and the refined lead production has increased from April to June but the concentrates are tightening. The battery finished product inventory is high, and the market's peak - season expectations have declined. It is expected that there will be inventory accumulation in July, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 16800 - 17500 next week [8] Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the spot import return decreased by 1181.50, the spot export return increased by 817.65, the LME C - 3M increased by 9, and the LME inventory decreased by 50 [11] - **Market Analysis**: The tin price has fluctuated widely this week. The domestic smelting production may decline slightly in July - August due to low processing fees and upcoming maintenance. Overseas, there are signals of复产 in Wa State, and the import volume from Congo (Kinshasa) in June has exceeded expectations. The demand for solder is limited, and the growth rate of terminal electronics and photovoltaics is expected to decline. The domestic inventory has increased, and the LME inventory is at a low level but the inventory accumulation turning point is emerging. Short - term observation is recommended [11] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 565, the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 515, the 553 East China basis decreased by 415, the 553 Tianjin basis decreased by 415, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 252 [14] - **Market Analysis**: The start - up rate of leading enterprises has decreased again due to power station issues, and there is no expected resumption date. Yunnan and Sichuan have slightly resumed production, with Yunnan's start - up rate remaining low. The monthly production in July and later is expected to decline, and the supply - demand balance has shifted to inventory reduction. If the start - up rate does not recover significantly in the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate [14] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 1350, the SMM industrial carbon price increased by 1300, the basis of the main contract decreased by 30, the basis of the near - month contract increased by 1350, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 270 [16] - **Market Analysis**: The lithium carbonate futures price has continued to rise recently due to factors such as warehouse receipt games, supply - side news disturbances, and the repair of weak demand expectations. The basis has weakened slightly. After the simultaneous rise of futures and spot prices, downstream acceptance is low, and the actual transaction volume is small. The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory pressure in the intermediate links is gradually accumulating. The absolute price is expected to fluctuate, and a downward turning point requires significant inventory accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot goods [16]