有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/08/12 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/08/05 150 301 72543 18767 -172.87 266.63 46.0 56.0 -67.32 153850 12000 2025/08/06 105 108 72543 20346 -79.58 430.61 46.0 57.0 -62.62 156125 10925 2025/08/07 105 156 72543 20145 -79.96 359.16 46.0 57.0 -65.63 156000 11125 2025/08/08 115 216 81933 21272 -15.62 225.75 46.0 57.0 -69.55 155850 11075 2025/08/11 150 495 81933 23275 -117.15 335.57 45.0 55.0 -83.25 155700 11975 变化 35 279 0 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The domestic macro situation is favorable for non - ferrous metals this week. The Q2 GDP data is good, and the anti - involution policy on commodities has led to expectations of supply - side reform, which boosts the non - ferrous metals sector. For copper, the price has obvious support at the bottom, and attention should be paid to restocking opportunities around 7.6 - 7.7. For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and reverse arbitrage opportunities. For zinc, short - term observation of the squeeze - out market is recommended, with long - term short - selling on rallies; long - short arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets can be held, and attention can be paid to positive arbitrage opportunities between months. For nickel, the short - term fundamentals are average, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio. For stainless steel, the fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to future policy trends. For lead, it is expected to fluctuate between 16800 - 17500 next week. For tin, short - term observation is recommended due to the coexistence of raw material supply disturbances and consumption decline expectations. For industrial silicon, if the start - up rate does not recover significantly in the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate. For lithium carbonate, the absolute price is expected to fluctuate, and a downward turning point requires significant inventory accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot goods [1][4][5][8][11][14][16] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the spot premium increased by 40, the scrap - refined copper spread increased by 440, the SHFE inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 10062. The LME inventory decreased by 100, and the LME cancelled warrants decreased by 1500 [1] - **Market Analysis**: The domestic macro situation is favorable, the scrap - refined spread has shrunk significantly, the refined copper rod start - up rate has rebounded faster than expected, and the spot import window has opened. The market is less sensitive to tariff pricing, overseas liquidity is loose with a possible interest rate cut in the second half of the year, and the domestic downstream start - up rate is okay during the off - season. Attention should be paid to the possibility of a reversal in copper logistics [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 190, the social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory increased by 3725. The spot import profit decreased by 246.21, and the three - month import profit decreased by 72.82 [1] - **Market Analysis**: Supply has increased slightly, with imports from January to May providing an increment. The demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, with flat supply and demand. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and reverse arbitrage opportunities in the context of low inventory [1] Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 500, the social inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE inventory remained unchanged. The LME inventory decreased by 875, and the LME cancelled warrants increased by 38425 [4] - **Market Analysis**: The zinc price has fluctuated upwards this week. The domestic TC in July has increased compared to June, and new production capacity in the southwest and central China has been realized. Domestic demand has weakened seasonally, and overseas demand in Europe is weak. The domestic social inventory has increased, and the overseas LME inventory has decreased. There is an increased risk of short - squeezing in lead and zinc, and attention should be paid to the resonance between domestic and foreign markets [4] Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 1850, the spot import return decreased by 222.41, and the LME C - 3M decreased by 12 [5] - **Market Analysis**: The pure nickel production remains at a high level, the demand is weak, and the premiums are stable. Both domestic and overseas nickel plate inventories have increased slightly. The tariff agreement between Indonesia and the US has no direct impact on pure nickel. The short - term fundamentals are average, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [5] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the price of waste stainless steel increased by 200 [5] - **Market Analysis**: Steel mills have partially reduced production passively since late May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and some restocking has increased due to the macro environment. The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remain stable. The inventories in Xijiao and Foshan have decreased slightly, and the exchange warehouse receipts have continued to decrease slightly. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to future policy trends [5] Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the spot premium increased by 10, the social inventory situation is not clear, and the SHFE inventory remained unchanged. The LME inventory decreased by 3475, and the LME cancelled warrants increased by 500 [8] - **Market Analysis**: The lead price has slightly declined this week. The scrap volume is weak year - on - year, the waste battery supply is tight, and the refined lead production has increased from April to June but the concentrates are tightening. The battery finished product inventory is high, and the market's peak - season expectations have declined. It is expected that there will be inventory accumulation in July, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 16800 - 17500 next week [8] Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the spot import return decreased by 1181.50, the spot export return increased by 817.65, the LME C - 3M increased by 9, and the LME inventory decreased by 50 [11] - **Market Analysis**: The tin price has fluctuated widely this week. The domestic smelting production may decline slightly in July - August due to low processing fees and upcoming maintenance. Overseas, there are signals of复产 in Wa State, and the import volume from Congo (Kinshasa) in June has exceeded expectations. The demand for solder is limited, and the growth rate of terminal electronics and photovoltaics is expected to decline. The domestic inventory has increased, and the LME inventory is at a low level but the inventory accumulation turning point is emerging. Short - term observation is recommended [11] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 565, the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 515, the 553 East China basis decreased by 415, the 553 Tianjin basis decreased by 415, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 252 [14] - **Market Analysis**: The start - up rate of leading enterprises has decreased again due to power station issues, and there is no expected resumption date. Yunnan and Sichuan have slightly resumed production, with Yunnan's start - up rate remaining low. The monthly production in July and later is expected to decline, and the supply - demand balance has shifted to inventory reduction. If the start - up rate does not recover significantly in the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate [14] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 1350, the SMM industrial carbon price increased by 1300, the basis of the main contract decreased by 30, the basis of the near - month contract increased by 1350, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 270 [16] - **Market Analysis**: The lithium carbonate futures price has continued to rise recently due to factors such as warehouse receipt games, supply - side news disturbances, and the repair of weak demand expectations. The basis has weakened slightly. After the simultaneous rise of futures and spot prices, downstream acceptance is low, and the actual transaction volume is small. The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory pressure in the intermediate links is gradually accumulating. The absolute price is expected to fluctuate, and a downward turning point requires significant inventory accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot goods [16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that after the US-China phase one trade agreement in May, the price of Zheng cotton has experienced three rounds of increases, returning to levels seen before the Qingming Festival, but the market outlook remains divided with both upward and downward pressures [1][3] - The USDA's June supply and demand report has lowered the global cotton production, consumption, beginning and ending stocks, and global trade volume for the 2024/2025 season, which has a neutral to slightly bullish impact [1] - For the 2025/2026 season, the USDA has also reduced the cotton production, beginning, and ending stocks in the US, maintaining a neutral to slightly bullish outlook [1] Group 2 - The USDA's June report estimates China's cotton production at 6.5 million tons, which may be underestimated, while the domestic market shows weak performance with a decline in the fabric sector's operating rate [2] - The export market for cotton textiles has performed better than expected, with May exports showing a 2% month-on-month increase and a 10% year-on-year increase, characterized by a "price for volume" strategy [2] - The average export price of cotton textiles to the US has continued to decline by 1.41%, indicating a trend of downgrading high-end products to gain market share [2] Group 3 - From April to June, there has been a significant reduction in port cotton imports, aligning with positive export data, while US retail inventories remain stable [3] - Investors are optimistic about Zheng cotton due to undervaluation recovery, but further price increases may require macroeconomic support, while downward adjustments may depend on negative feedback from downstream markets [3] - The overall cotton price breakthrough relies on macroeconomic factors, and strategies such as internal and external spreads and the 2509 and 2511 reverse spread should be monitored [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - For copper, with the S232 investigation pending, the US dollar copper market may still siphon copper from other regions, and the copper market will face a tight - balance situation prone to squeezes. After the 232 investigation results are out, the arbitrage window may disappear, and if the copper tariff is below 15%, there may be a reverse flow of copper [1]. - For aluminum, supply has a slight increase, demand is expected to seasonally weaken in July, and the inventory is expected to be balanced. The short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and attention should be paid to demand and anti - arbitrage opportunities [1]. - For zinc, the price fluctuated upward this week due to high macro - sentiment. The supply is expected to increase, demand is seasonally weak, and the strategy is to short - allocate zinc and hold long - short arbitrage positions [2]. - For nickel, supply is at a high level, demand is weak, and the inventory overseas remains stable while domestic inventory decreases slightly. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [5]. - For stainless steel, supply has partial production cuts, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory has a slight increase. The short - term trend is expected to be weak [6]. - For lead, the price rebounded this week due to speculation. Supply is expected to slightly decrease in July, demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 16800 - 17300 [8]. - For tin, the price fluctuated upward due to commodity sentiment. Supply is affected by production cuts, demand has a downward trend, and the short - term supply - demand is weak with strong support at the bottom [11]. - For industrial silicon, due to the significant production cut of a leading enterprise, the supply - demand balance turns to de - stocking, and the price is expected to be strong in the short - term and bottom - run in the long - term [14]. - For lithium carbonate, the price increased due to speculation. Supply is expected to be in surplus next week, which will put pressure on the price, but the "anti - involution" policy may boost sentiment [16]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Market situation: The S232 investigation has led to a large amount of copper flowing to the US, reducing LME and domestic inventories. The price volatility has increased, and the LME cash - 3M spread has widened [1]. - Outlook: Before the S232 investigation results are out, the tight - balance situation will continue. After the results are out, the market logic may reverse [1]. Aluminum - Supply: There is a slight increase in supply, with imports providing an increment from January to May [1]. - Demand: Expected to seasonally weaken in July, with flat supply - demand [1]. - Inventory: Expected to be balanced in July [1]. Zinc - Supply: Domestic TC increased, and the supply is expected to increase by more than 5000 tons in July [2]. - Demand: Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand is also weak in some regions [2]. - Strategy: Short - allocate zinc and hold long - short arbitrage positions [2]. Nickel - Supply: Pure nickel production remains high, and nickel bean imports increased in May [5]. - Demand: Overall weak, with a slight increase in LME premium [5]. - Inventory: Overseas nickel plate inventory remains stable, and domestic inventory decreases slightly [5]. Stainless Steel - Supply: Some steel mills have partial production cuts since late May [6]. - Demand: Mainly for rigid needs [6]. - Inventory: There is a slight increase in inventory in two major regions [6]. Lead - Supply: Scrap battery supply is tight, and the supply is expected to slightly decrease in July [8]. - Demand: Battery inventory is high, and the demand is weak in the off - season [8]. - Price: Expected to fluctuate between 16800 - 17300 [8]. Tin - Supply: Myanmar's production resumption needs negotiation, and domestic production has decreased [11]. - Demand: Welding tin demand has limited elasticity, and terminal demand is expected to decline [11]. - Strategy: Hold long positions cautiously in the short - term and consider short positions after the maintenance period [11]. Industrial Silicon - Supply: A leading enterprise has significantly cut production, and the overall supply is expected to decrease [14]. - Demand: The market expectation turns to de - stocking [14]. - Price: Expected to be strong in the short - term and bottom - run in the long - term [14]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply: Production is expected to increase with the复产 of some enterprises [16]. - Demand: Weak, with limited improvement from policies [16]. - Price: Supply surplus will put pressure on the price, but the "anti - involution" policy may boost sentiment [16]

| 变化 | -20 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 沪锌现货进口盈利 | 沪锌期货进口盈利 | 锌保税库premium | LME C-3M | LME锌库存 | LME锌注销仓单 | | 2025/06/26 | -1301.91 | -1273.21 | 140 | -2 | 119850 | 30775 | | 2025/06/27 | -1338.95 | -1398.26 | 140 | -0 | 119225 | 27900 | | 2025/06/30 | -1440.41 | -1376.43 | 140 | -10 | 117475 | 27150 | | 2025/07/01 | -1256.15 | -1305.67 | 140 | -19 | 114900 | 25600 | | 2025/07/02 | -1028.32 | -1131.52 | 140 | -22 | 113425 | 24225 | | 变化 | 227.83 | 174.15 | 0 | ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/02 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/06/25 20 674 100814 21470 -1355.85 110.21 38.0 66.0 100.69 93475 37225 2025/06/26 60 927 100814 23696 -3183.29 104.25 37.0 65.0 319.83 93075 36450 2025/06/27 105 1572 81550 25346 -2612.60 54.46 37.0 58.0 240.67 91275 33625 2025/06/30 130 1559 81550 25851 -1666.99 249.33 30.0 50.0 181.69 90625 32925 2025/07/01 200 1759 81550 24773 -1085.77 219.08 30.0 48.0 116.30 91250 31975 变化 70 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - For copper, the inventory drawdown slope may continue to slow down, and attention should be paid to the consumption inflection point. The upward momentum of the monthly spread requires substantial shortages or a decline in the absolute price. [1] - For aluminum, the supply-demand gap remains in May, and the inventory is expected to decline gently from May to July. The aluminum price may rebound with the inventory drawdown. The monthly spread long position can be held if the absolute price drops. [2] - For zinc, the price fluctuated widely this week. The inventory accumulation acceleration inflection point is expected to occur at the end of May or early June. It is recommended to short at high prices and continue to hold the long position in the domestic and foreign price spread. [5] - For nickel, the short-term fundamental situation is average, but supported by tariff and mine disturbances, opportunities for the contraction of the nickel-stainless steel price ratio can continue to be monitored. [6] - For stainless steel, the short-term is a mix of long and short factors, and the reverse spread position can be rolled over and continued to be held. [8] - For lead, the price is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 and 17,000 next week, and the supply is expected to decrease in May. [9][10] - For tin, the short-term is recommended to wait and see, and the medium- and long-term should focus on shorting opportunities. [12] - For industrial silicon, the short-term shows a pattern of double reduction in supply and demand, and the medium- and long-term price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. [14] - For lithium carbonate, the short-term downstream demand enters a small peak season, but the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the medium and long term. [16] Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: From May 16 to May 22, the Shanghai copper spot premium decreased by 140, the waste refined copper spread decreased by 263, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 9,464. [1] - **Market Situation**: The domestic inventory showed an inflection point this week, with high selling pressure. The demand shows strong reality and weak expectations, and the inventory drawdown slope may slow down. [1] Aluminum - **Market Data**: From May 16 to May 22, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 50, the domestic alumina price increased by 52, and the SHFE social inventory remained unchanged. [1] - **Market Situation**: The supply increased slightly in 1 - 3 months, and the demand decline in May was not obvious. The inventory is expected to decline gently from May to July, and the aluminum price may rebound. [2] Zinc - **Market Data**: From May 16 to May 22, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 110, the domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 1,650. [5] - **Market Situation**: The price fluctuated widely this week. The supply side had a slight decrease in smelting maintenance in May, and the demand side had general domestic demand and a slight recovery in overseas demand. The inventory accumulation acceleration inflection point is expected to occur at the end of May or early June. [5] Nickel - **Market Data**: From May 16 to May 22, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 100, the spot import return decreased by 489.12, and the LME inventory decreased by 876. [6] - **Market Situation**: The pure nickel production remained at a high level, the demand was weak, and the overseas nickel beans had a slight inventory drawdown. The short-term fundamental situation is average, but supported by tariff and mine disturbances. [6] Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From May 16 to May 22, the price of 304 cold-rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of waste stainless steel increased by 50. [6] - **Market Situation**: The production may decrease passively in May, the demand is mainly rigid, and the inventory in Xijiao and Foshan increased slightly. The short-term is a mix of long and short factors. [6][8] Lead - **Market Data**: From May 16 to May 22, the spot premium decreased by 5, the LME inventory increased by 13,700, and the LME cancelled warrants decreased by 4,125. [8] - **Market Situation**: The price fluctuated upward this week. The supply side had tight raw materials and concentrated capacity release in the middle reaches, and the demand side had weak overall demand. The price is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 and 17,000 next week. [9][10] Tin - **Market Data**: From May 16 to May 22, the spot import return increased by 2,110.12, the spot export return decreased by 1,586.48, and the LME inventory decreased by 5. [12] - **Market Situation**: The price fluctuated narrowly this week. The supply side had mine supply disturbances, and the demand side had limited elasticity. The short-term is recommended to wait and see, and the medium- and long-term should focus on shorting opportunities. [12] Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From May 16 to May 22, the 553 East China basis decreased by 65, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 355. [14] - **Market Situation**: The northern large factories maintained production cuts this week, and the downstream demand continued to weaken. The short-term shows a pattern of double reduction in supply and demand, and the medium- and long-term price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. [14] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From May 16 to May 22, the SMM electric carbon price remained unchanged, the SMM industrial carbon price remained unchanged, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 530. [16] - **Market Situation**: The price fluctuated downward this week. The overall production increased, and the inventory accumulation speed slowed down. The short-term downstream demand enters a small peak season, but the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the medium and long term. [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For copper, the inventory drawdown slope may continue to slow down, and attention should be paid to the consumption inflection point. For the monthly spread, the subsequent upward momentum requires substantial shortages or a decline in absolute prices [1]. - For aluminum, with the positive progress in Sino - US trade negotiations and the alleviation of global trade tensions, the aluminum price rebounds with inventory drawdown. The monthly spread long - short arbitrage can be held if the absolute price drops [2]. - For zinc, attention should be paid to the inflection point from inventory drawdown to accumulation. It is recommended to short at high prices, and the domestic - foreign long - short arbitrage can be continued [5]. - For nickel, opportunities for the contraction of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can continue to be monitored [6]. - For stainless steel, in the short term, with long and short factors intertwined, the reverse arbitrage can be rolled over and held [7]. - For lead, it is expected to oscillate in the range of 16,800 - 17,000 next week, and the supply is expected to decrease in May [8]. - For tin, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium - long term [9]. - For industrial silicon, in the medium - long term, the price trend is expected to be mainly bottom - oscillating, anchored to the cash - flow cost of leading large enterprises [11]. - For lithium carbonate, in the medium - long cycle, if the operating rate of leading mining - smelting integrated enterprises does not significantly decline, the price will still oscillate weakly [13]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the spot premium decreased by 125, the waste - refined copper price difference decreased by 221, and the LME inventory decreased by 1,925 [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic inventory showed an inflection point this week. The smelting plants were eager to sell under high monthly spreads, and downstream orders slowed down. The demand has strong current reality but weak future expectations [1]. Aluminum - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 100, and the domestic alumina price increased by 42 [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increased slightly, and the demand in May did not decline significantly. The inventory is expected to be drawn down gently from May to July [2]. Zinc - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 150, and the LME inventory decreased by 1,150 [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic TC remained unchanged this week, and the import TC increased slightly. The demand at home has general elasticity, and overseas demand has slightly recovered. The inventory accumulation inflection point is expected to appear at the end of May or early June [5]. Nickel - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the沪镍现货 price decreased by 150, and the LME inventory decreased by 312 [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The pure nickel production remained at a high level, and the overall demand was weak. The overseas nickel beans inventory decreased slightly, and the domestic inventory remained stable [6]. Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, 430 cold - rolled, and scrap stainless steel remained unchanged [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production increased seasonally in April, and steel mills may cut production passively in May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs [7]. Lead - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the lead spot premium increased by 10, and the LME inventory decreased by 36,375 [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side has tight raw materials, and the demand side has limited overall demand. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,000 next week [8]. Tin - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the spot import gain increased by 5,126.89, and the LME inventory increased by 15 [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side has some alleviation of long - term ore shortages, but there are still domestic supply disturbances. The demand side has limited elasticity, and the downstream lacks consumption power [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the 553 East China basis decreased by 55, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 596 [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, there is a pattern of double - reduction in supply and demand. In the medium - long term, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the SMM electric carbon price decreased by 200, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 152 [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overall production increased this week, and the inventory accumulation speed slowed down. In the medium - long term, the price may oscillate weakly [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For copper, the inventory destocking slope may continue to slow down, and attention should be paid to the consumption inflection point. The upward momentum of the monthly spread requires substantial shortages or a decline in absolute prices. [1] - For aluminum, the supply increases slightly, and the demand in May is not expected to decline significantly. There is still a supply - demand gap. The inventory is expected to be depleted gently from May to July. The aluminum price may rebound with destocking. The long - spread arbitrage can be held if the absolute price drops. [1] - For zinc, the zinc price fluctuates widely this week. Pay attention to the inflection point from destocking to stockpiling, and it is recommended to short at high prices. The long - spread arbitrage at home and abroad can be held. [3] - For nickel, the supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, the demand is weak, and the overseas nickel beans are slightly destocked. The opportunity to shrink the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continuously monitored. [4] - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak, but there is macro - positive support. The short - spread arbitrage can be rolled over and held. [5] - For lead, the lead price fluctuates and rises this week. It is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 - 17,000 next week, and the supply is expected to decrease in May. [7] - For tin, the tin price fluctuates narrowly this week. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and in the long - term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities. [8] - For industrial silicon, the short - term supply - demand double - reduction pattern is obvious, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the long - term. [9] - For lithium carbonate, the price oscillates and declines. In the short - term, the downstream demand enters a small peak season, but the price may still oscillate weakly in the long - term. [11] Summaries by Metals Copper - **Market Situation**: The domestic inventory shows an inflection point this week. The spot premium in North China remains weak, and the overall selling pressure is high. The demand has strong current reality but weak expectations. [1] - **Data Changes**: From May 13 - 19, the inventory decreased by 5,050 tons, and the LME C - 3M spread changed from 19.17 to 15.52. [1] Aluminum - **Market Situation**: The supply increases slightly, and the demand in May is not expected to decline significantly. The inventory is expected to be depleted gently from May to July. [1] - **Data Changes**: From May 13 - 19, the LME inventory decreased by 2,000 tons, and the LME C - 3M spread changed from 2.82 to 1.42. [1] Zinc - **Market Situation**: The zinc price fluctuates widely this week. The supply side has a slight decrease in smelting maintenance in May, and the demand side has general domestic demand elasticity and a slight recovery in European demand. [3] - **Data Changes**: From May 13 - 19, the LME inventory decreased by 3,400 tons, and the LME C - 3M spread changed from - 27 to - 32. [3] Nickel - **Market Situation**: The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, the demand is weak, and the overseas nickel beans are slightly destocked. [4] - **Data Changes**: From May 13 - 19, the LME inventory increased by 6,786 tons, and the LME C - 3M spread changed from - 194 to - 202. [4] Stainless Steel - **Market Situation**: The supply may be reduced passively in May, the demand is mainly rigid, the cost of ferronickel is under pressure, and the inventory in Xifu area accumulates slightly. [5] - **Data Changes**: From May 13 - 19, the price of 201 cold - rolled coil decreased by 25. [5] Lead - **Market Situation**: The lead price fluctuates and rises this week. The supply side has tight raw materials, and the demand side has limited overall demand. [7] - **Data Changes**: From May 13 - 19, the LME inventory decreased by 6,825 tons, and the LME C - 3M spread changed from - 4 to - 18. [6] Tin - **Market Situation**: The tin price fluctuates narrowly this week. The supply side has some production cuts in China, and the demand side has limited elasticity. [8] - **Data Changes**: From May 13 - 19, the LME inventory increased by 5 tons, and the LME C - 3M spread changed from - 19 to - 56. [8] Industrial Silicon - **Market Situation**: The short - term supply - demand double - reduction pattern is obvious, and the price is at a low level. The social inventory begins to be depleted. [9] - **Data Changes**: From May 13 - 19, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 135, and the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 85. [9] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: The price oscillates and declines. The production increases, the inventory accumulation slows down, and the downstream demand has mixed signals. [11] - **Data Changes**: From May 13 - 19, the SMM electric carbon price decreased by 800, and the SMM industrial carbon price decreased by 800. [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The inventory decline slope of copper may continue to slow down, and attention should be paid to the consumption inflection point. For the month - spread, follow - up upward momentum requires substantial shortages or a decline in absolute prices [1] - With the easing of the global trade tension and the decline in inventory, the aluminum price is expected to rebound. The month - spread positive arbitrage can be held if the absolute price drops [2] - For zinc, pay attention to the turning point from inventory decline to accumulation, and it is recommended to short at high prices. The internal - external positive arbitrage can be continued [5] - For nickel, continue to pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6] - For stainless steel, short - term long and short factors are intertwined, and the reverse arbitrage can be rolled over and held [8] - Lead is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,800 - 17,000 next week, and the supply in May is expected to decrease cyclically [10] - For tin, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium - long term [12] - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, anchored to the cash - flow cost of leading large enterprises in the medium - long term [14] - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate weakly in the medium - long term, and there may be short - term replenishment demand from downstream [16] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: From May 12 - 16, the spot premium of Shanghai copper changed by 430, the waste - refined copper price difference increased by 150, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 2,712. The LME inventory decreased by 5,275 [1] - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic inventory showed an inflection point this week. The smelters were eager to sell under the high monthly spread, and downstream orders slowed down. The demand has strong current reality but weak future expectations [1] Aluminum - **Market Data**: From May 12 - 16, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 80, the domestic alumina price increased by 30, and the Shanghai aluminum social inventory decreased. The LME inventory decreased by 1,825 [1][2] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increased slightly, and the import of aluminum ingots was large from January to March. The demand in May is expected to decline slightly, and there is still a supply - demand gap. The inventory is expected to decline gently from May to July [2] Zinc - **Market Data**: From May 12 - 16, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 130, the domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 975 [5] - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic TC remained unchanged this week, and the imported TC increased slightly. The domestic demand has general elasticity, and the export can be maintained. Overseas demand in Europe has slightly recovered [5] Nickel - **Market Data**: From May 12 - 16, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 3,924 [6] - **Supply and Demand**: The production of pure nickel remained at a high level. The overall demand was weak, and the overseas nickel beans inventory decreased slightly [6] Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From May 12 - 16, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of waste stainless steel decreased by 50 [6] - **Supply and Demand**: The production increased seasonally in April, and steel mills may cut production passively in May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs [6][7] Lead - **Market Data**: From May 12 - 16, the spot premium decreased by 10, and the LME inventory decreased by 1,825 [8] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of raw materials was tight, and the demand was weak. The overall consumption was in the off - season, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a certain range next week [7][8][9] Tin - **Market Data**: From May 12 - 16, the spot import profit decreased by 45.78, and the LME inventory decreased by 10 [12] - **Supply and Demand**: The African Alphamin mine has resumed production, and the supply of domestic raw materials is still disturbed. The demand for solder is limited, and the growth of terminal electronics and photovoltaics is expected to decline [12] Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From May 12 - 16, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 165, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 49 [14] - **Supply and Demand**: Some factories have cut production, and the downstream demand for organic silicon and polysilicon is declining. The overall supply and demand have reached a tight balance, and the social inventory has started to decline [14] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From May 12 - 16, the SMM electric carbon price decreased by 300, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 40 [16] - **Supply and Demand**: The overall production has increased, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. The downstream demand is in a small peak season, but the demand improvement is less than expected. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the medium - long term [16]