价格层面，我国棉纺产品出口美国的平均单价环比继续下滑1.41%，"以价换量"特征延续，且高端产品 存在明显的降级抢量现象；出口日韩的平均单价环比下滑6.6%，这一表现可理解为补跌；出口东盟、 欧盟的平均单价环比则保持稳定。 4—6月港口进口棉去库明显，这与出口数据向好形成呼应。美国零售端库存保持平稳，批发商库存则出 现小幅补库迹象。当前市场仍关注关税政策90天到期后的进展，但由于前期存在"抢出口"（即订单前 置）现象，不排除后续旺季订单走弱的可能。 自中美关税暂缓后，投资者从低估值修复角度持续看涨郑棉，但后续若缺乏宏观利好助推，棉价较难继 续突破。整体上，棉价向上突破需依赖宏观面释放更大利好，向下调整则需等待下游负反馈的传导。操 作上，可关注内外正套及2509与2511反套策略。（作者单位：紫金天风期货） 自5月中美达成阶段性关税贸易协议后，郑棉价格经历三轮拉涨，目前已基本回到清明节前的价格中枢 水平。当前市场对其未来走势存在较大分歧，棉花市场上有压制、下有支撑，需等待新的驱动因素指 引。 根据美国农业部（USDA）6月供需报告，2024/2025年度全球棉花平衡表中棉花产量、消费量、期初与 期末库存及全球贸 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/04 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/06/27 105 1572 81550 25346 -2612.60 54.46 37.0 58.0 240.67 91275 33625 2025/06/30 130 1559 81550 25851 -1666.99 249.33 30.0 50.0 181.69 90625 32925 2025/07/01 200 1759 81550 24773 -1085.77 219.08 30.0 48.0 116.30 91250 31975 2025/07/02 125 1917 81550 25097 -740.05 287.80 30.0 48.0 96.20 93250 31900 2025/07/03 110 1459 81550 24103 -1000.59 26.46 30.0 49.0 87.61 94325 31900 变化 -15 - ...

| 变化 | -20 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 沪锌现货进口盈利 | 沪锌期货进口盈利 | 锌保税库premium | LME C-3M | LME锌库存 | LME锌注销仓单 | | 2025/06/26 | -1301.91 | -1273.21 | 140 | -2 | 119850 | 30775 | | 2025/06/27 | -1338.95 | -1398.26 | 140 | -0 | 119225 | 27900 | | 2025/06/30 | -1440.41 | -1376.43 | 140 | -10 | 117475 | 27150 | | 2025/07/01 | -1256.15 | -1305.67 | 140 | -19 | 114900 | 25600 | | 2025/07/02 | -1028.32 | -1131.52 | 140 | -22 | 113425 | 24225 | | 变化 | 227.83 | 174.15 | 0 | ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/02 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/06/25 20 674 100814 21470 -1355.85 110.21 38.0 66.0 100.69 93475 37225 2025/06/26 60 927 100814 23696 -3183.29 104.25 37.0 65.0 319.83 93075 36450 2025/06/27 105 1572 81550 25346 -2612.60 54.46 37.0 58.0 240.67 91275 33625 2025/06/30 130 1559 81550 25851 -1666.99 249.33 30.0 50.0 181.69 90625 32925 2025/07/01 200 1759 81550 24773 -1085.77 219.08 30.0 48.0 116.30 91250 31975 变化 70 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/05/23 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/05/16 445 1250 108142 63247 -433.62 40.45 95.0 111.0 31.45 179375 71900 2025/05/19 430 816 108142 61913 -103.15 218.98 95.0 111.0 15.52 174325 67550 2025/05/20 390 979 108142 45738 -23.85 170.67 94.0 110.0 3.16 170750 66450 2025/05/21 265 758 108142 41218 -527.73 57.47 94.0 110.0 14.01 168825 66000 2025/05/22 125 495 108142 31754 -701.34 264.30 92.0 108.0 15.88 166525 68650 变化 -14 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For copper, the inventory drawdown slope may continue to slow down, and attention should be paid to the consumption inflection point. For the monthly spread, the subsequent upward momentum requires substantial shortages or a decline in absolute prices [1]. - For aluminum, with the positive progress in Sino - US trade negotiations and the alleviation of global trade tensions, the aluminum price rebounds with inventory drawdown. The monthly spread long - short arbitrage can be held if the absolute price drops [2]. - For zinc, attention should be paid to the inflection point from inventory drawdown to accumulation. It is recommended to short at high prices, and the domestic - foreign long - short arbitrage can be continued [5]. - For nickel, opportunities for the contraction of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can continue to be monitored [6]. - For stainless steel, in the short term, with long and short factors intertwined, the reverse arbitrage can be rolled over and held [7]. - For lead, it is expected to oscillate in the range of 16,800 - 17,000 next week, and the supply is expected to decrease in May [8]. - For tin, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium - long term [9]. - For industrial silicon, in the medium - long term, the price trend is expected to be mainly bottom - oscillating, anchored to the cash - flow cost of leading large enterprises [11]. - For lithium carbonate, in the medium - long cycle, if the operating rate of leading mining - smelting integrated enterprises does not significantly decline, the price will still oscillate weakly [13]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the spot premium decreased by 125, the waste - refined copper price difference decreased by 221, and the LME inventory decreased by 1,925 [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic inventory showed an inflection point this week. The smelting plants were eager to sell under high monthly spreads, and downstream orders slowed down. The demand has strong current reality but weak future expectations [1]. Aluminum - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 100, and the domestic alumina price increased by 42 [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increased slightly, and the demand in May did not decline significantly. The inventory is expected to be drawn down gently from May to July [2]. Zinc - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 150, and the LME inventory decreased by 1,150 [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic TC remained unchanged this week, and the import TC increased slightly. The demand at home has general elasticity, and overseas demand has slightly recovered. The inventory accumulation inflection point is expected to appear at the end of May or early June [5]. Nickel - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the沪镍现货 price decreased by 150, and the LME inventory decreased by 312 [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The pure nickel production remained at a high level, and the overall demand was weak. The overseas nickel beans inventory decreased slightly, and the domestic inventory remained stable [6]. Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, 430 cold - rolled, and scrap stainless steel remained unchanged [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production increased seasonally in April, and steel mills may cut production passively in May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs [7]. Lead - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the lead spot premium increased by 10, and the LME inventory decreased by 36,375 [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side has tight raw materials, and the demand side has limited overall demand. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,000 next week [8]. Tin - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the spot import gain increased by 5,126.89, and the LME inventory increased by 15 [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side has some alleviation of long - term ore shortages, but there are still domestic supply disturbances. The demand side has limited elasticity, and the downstream lacks consumption power [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the 553 East China basis decreased by 55, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 596 [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, there is a pattern of double - reduction in supply and demand. In the medium - long term, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the SMM electric carbon price decreased by 200, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 152 [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overall production increased this week, and the inventory accumulation speed slowed down. In the medium - long term, the price may oscillate weakly [13].

| 有色早报 | 研究中心有色团队 2025/05/20 | 铜 ： | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜现货 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/05/19 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/05/12 -25 899 80705 20084 -381.79 644.55 101.0 117.0 23.87 190750 82200 2025/05/13 -10 799 80705 29157 -370.77 284.15 101.0 117.0 19.17 189650 81275 2025/05/14 -35 1193 80705 50069 -227.87 527.10 100.0 115.0 14.83 185575 77650 2025/05/15 15 1100 80705 60535 -427.30 494.21 100.0 115.0 39.74 184650 76725 2025/05/16 445 1250 108142 63247 -433.62 40.45 95.0 111.0 31.45 179375 71900 变化 ...

锌产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 日期：2025年04月27日 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 302928272625242322212019181716151413121110 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 ZN2412.SHF ZN2501.SHF ZN2502.SHF ZN2503.SHF ZN2504.SHF ZN2505.SHF Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料来源：SMM、钢联、同花顺、Bloomberg、国泰君安期货研究所 第 2 页 05-25 06-06 06-18 06-30 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 强弱分析：中性 锌：强现实弱预期，价格震荡运行 冶炼利润显著修复 07-12 07-24 08-05 08-17 08-29 09-10 09-22 10- ...