投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-01-08 铂钯波动剧烈，短线维持谨慎 2026年1⽉6⽇午后外盘下跌显著，内盘铂钯⾛势分化，截⾄收盘，GFEX 铂主⼒合约收盘价为598.5元/克，跌幅-2.47%；钯⾦则相较铂⾦表现偏 强，或部分源于前期涨幅相对落后，GFEX钯主⼒合约收盘价为475.95元/ 克，涨幅+1.71%。 铂观点：获利回吐+美元小幅走强，铂金走势承压 主要逻辑：受获利回吐与美元小幅走强影响，贵金属板块整体回落，铂金 走势承压。此外地缘政治风险再度发酵，或进一步加剧价格波动。至1月7 日收盘，广期所铂金主力合约国内收盘时点与NYMEX铂金（含税）溢价21. 4元/克，内外价差大幅收敛，建议等待价差重新扩大后，继续关注内外正 套机会。展望未来，供给方面，南非作为全球铂族金属的主要供应国，未 来仍存在电力供应以及极端天气风险。需求方面，铂金市场整体处于结构 性扩张阶段，汽车催化剂领域需求保持相对稳定，氢能产业为未来重要增 长点，首饰和投资需求扩张，同时"降息+软着陆"组合将进一步放大远 期价格弹性。 展望：供需基本面健康叠加宏观预期向好，预计铂价 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-31 节前资金流出，铂钯继续大幅回调 12⽉31⽇，铂钯继续⼤幅回调，GFEX铂主⼒合约收盘价为589.85元/克 ，跌幅13%；钯主⼒合约收盘价为447.45元/克，跌幅13%。临近元旦假 期，市场情绪⾛弱资⾦流出，带动铂钯⼤幅回调，需继续警惕价格⼤幅波 动⻛险。 铂观点：节前资金流出，铂金大幅回调 主要逻辑：铂金经历回调后内外价差有所收窄，至12月31日收盘，广期所 铂金主力合约国内收盘时点与NYMEX铂金（含税）溢价35.16元/克，但仍 高于进口成本，存在无风险套利机会，因此未来价差存在收敛倾向。不过 由于套保额度限制等方面的问题，短期价差或仍然偏高。当前波动加剧需 高度警惕风险。展望未来，供给方面，南非作为全球铂族金属的主要供应 国，未来仍存在电力供应以及极端天气风险。需求方面，铂金市场整体处 于结构性扩张阶段，汽车催化剂领域需求保持相对稳定，氢能产业为未来 重要增长点，首饰和投资需求扩张，同时"降息+软着陆"组合将进一步 放大远期价格弹性。 展望：供需基本面健康叠加宏观预期向好，预计铂价将震荡偏强。短期价 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-30 节前情绪走弱资金获利流出，铂钯大幅 回调 12⽉29⽇，铂钯盘尾触及跌停，GFEX铂主⼒合约收盘价为634.35元/ 克，跌幅10%；钯主⼒合约收盘价为494.1元/克，跌幅10%。临近元旦假 期，部分资⾦在经历过⼀波⼤涨后开始获利了结，带动铂钯⼤幅回调，需 继续警惕价格⼤幅波动⻛险。 主要逻辑：当前俄罗斯地缘问题是供应的关键扰动因素，美国商务部正在 对从俄罗斯进口的未锻造钯进行调查，调查报告仍未发布，导致其他地区 钯金供应出现阶段性收紧。需求方面，钯金呈现显著的结构性压力。综合 来看，虽然钯长期供需趋松，但短期现货紧缺导致价格坚挺，叠加美联储 再度进入降息周期，钯价底部具备一定支撑。 展望：现货紧缺叠加宏观环境偏好，预计钯金价格震荡偏强。但短期来 看，钯金或已进入调整阶段，短线或观望为宜，等待价格回调到位。多铂 空钯与内外正套建议持有或暂时获利了结。 ⻛险提⽰：全球经济衰退；美联储货币政策变化；俄罗斯地缘冲突变化； 主产区供应扰动 铂观点：假期临近资金获利流出，铂金大幅回调 主要逻辑：铂金经历回调后内外价差有 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-26 铂钯走势分化，假期临近谨慎交易为宜 12⽉25⽇，铂钯⾛势分化，GFEX铂主⼒合约再度收涨，收盘价为686. 95元/克，涨幅4.51%；钯主⼒合约收盘价为529.05元/克，跌幅7.65%。 临近圣诞和元旦假期，部分资⾦在经历过⼀波⼤涨后开始逐步获利了结， 需继续警惕价格⾼位⼤幅波动⻛险。 铂观点：现货紧缺叠加市场流动性偏宽松，铂价走势偏强 主要逻辑：铂金再次收涨，内外价差维持高位，因外盘圣诞假期休市，截 至12月24日收盘，广期所铂金主力合约国内收盘时点与NYMEX铂金（含 税）溢价54. 4元/克，大幅高于进口成本，存在无风险套利机会，因此未 来价差存在收敛倾向。不过由于套保额度限制等方面的问题，短期价差或 仍然偏高。当前波动加剧需高度警惕风险。展望未来，供给方面，南非作 为全球铂族金属的主要供应国，未来仍存在电力供应以及极端天气风险。 需求方面，铂金市场整体处于结构性扩张阶段，汽车催化剂领域需求保持 相对稳定，氢能产业为未来重要增长点，首饰和投资需求扩张，同时"降 息+软着陆"组合将进一步放大远期价格弹 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-18 铂观点：宏观⽀撑叠加现货供应趋紧，铂价震荡上⾏ 主要逻辑：据美国劳工局数据，美国11月非农就业人口增长6.4万 人，高于预期值5万人，但11月失业率同样高于预期值4.5%、录得4. 6%，市场对于明年1月美联储降息预期小幅抬升，贵金属价格存在一 定支撑，现货供应趋紧同样支撑铂价。此外，本周以来内盘涨幅显著 高于外盘，导致内外价差持续拉大，截至12月17日，广期所铂2606合 约-伦敦铂金现货价差（含税）已达到 34.4元/克，大幅高于进口成 本，存在无风险套利机会，因此未来价差存在收敛倾向，建议关注内 外盘正套，即空国内多海外。展望未来，供给方面，南非作为全球铂 族金属的主要供应国，未来仍存在电力供应以及极端天气风险。需求 方面，铂金市场整体处于结构性扩张阶段，汽车催化剂领域需求保持 相对稳定，氢能产业为未来重要增长点，首饰和投资需求扩张，同 时"降息+软着陆"组合将进一步放大远期价格弹性。综合来看，在 供需基本面韧性的背景下，铂价保持坚挺。 展望：供需基本面健康叠加宏观预期向好，预计铂价将震荡偏强，建 议关注 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Zinc Risk Management Report - Date: September 25, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The zinc price rebounded slightly following the broader market in the previous trading session. The supply side remains in a surplus state. On the mine side, due to the internal and external price ratio, domestic mines have a significant price advantage, and the increase in domestic processing fees slowed down in September. Overseas mines have seen a substantial increase this year, showing a loose supply situation. In terms of imports, due to the weak production capacity of overseas smelters, the increase in overseas refined zinc is limited, while zinc ore imports are at a multi-year high. On the demand side, the inventory in seven domestic regions continues to accumulate, and no peak-season phenomenon has been observed. In the short term, affected by typhoons, the downstream operating rate is expected to decline slightly. The LME inventory continues to decrease, and the pattern of stronger overseas and weaker domestic zinc prices in terms of inventory is becoming more obvious. In terms of trading strategies, the internal and external reverse arbitrage can continue to wait and see as the LME inventory approaches its extreme value. Currently, the internal and external positive arbitrage logic for zinc ingots prevails. In the short term, the price will mainly fluctuate based on macroeconomic factors and consumption [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Zinc Price Volatility and Risk Management Recommendations - **Zinc Price Volatility**: The latest zinc price is 22,045, with a predicted range of 21,000 - 23,500. The current volatility is 7.74%, and the current volatility's historical percentile is 3.0% [2]. - **Risk Management Recommendations**: - **Inventory Management**: For those with high finished product inventory worried about price drops, it is recommended to short the main Shanghai zinc futures contract at a hedging ratio of 75% with an entry range of 22,700. There is no current recommendation for Shanghai zinc options [2]. - **Raw Material Management**: For those with low raw material inventory worried about price increases, it is recommended to long the main Shanghai zinc futures contract at a hedging ratio of 50% with an entry range of 21,700. There is no current recommendation for Shanghai zinc options [2]. Core Contradictions - The zinc price rebounded slightly following the broader market. The supply side is in surplus, with domestic mines having a price advantage and overseas mines having a large increase. The increase in overseas refined zinc is limited, and zinc ore imports are high. The domestic inventory is accumulating, and the downstream operating rate may decline slightly due to typhoons. The LME inventory is decreasing, and the price pattern is stronger overseas and weaker domestically. The internal and external positive arbitrage logic prevails, and the price will mainly fluctuate in the short term [3]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Likely Positive Factors**: - Overseas inventory is continuously decreasing (high probability, medium impact) [4]. - The Fed cuts interest rates more than expected (low probability, high impact) [4]. - The mine processing fee decreases (low probability, medium impact) [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: - Demand is weak, and peak-season consumption falls short of expectations (medium probability, medium impact) [6]. - Domestic inventory accumulates (medium probability, medium impact) [6]. - Import volume exceeds expectations year-on-year (low probability, low impact) [6]. Market Data - **Zinc Spot Prices**: The average price of SMM 0 zinc is 21,870 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 0.23% daily. The average price of SMM 1 zinc is 21,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 0.23% daily [7]. - **Zinc Futures Prices**: The main Shanghai zinc futures contract closed at 22,045 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan or 0.85% daily. The LME zinc closed at 2,938 US dollars/ton, up 49.5 US dollars or 1.71% daily [7]. - **Zinc Futures Inventory**: The total Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 56,583 tons, down 774 tons or 1.35% daily. The total LME zinc inventory is 44,400 tons, down 1,375 tons or 3% daily [7]. Other Data - **LME Zinc Position and Warehouse Receipt Data**: - **LME Zinc Position**: The distribution of long and short positions in different ranges is provided [19]. - **LME Zinc Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipt holders in different ranges is provided [19]. - **Zinc Concentrate Processing Fees**: A comparison of domestic and imported zinc concentrate processing fees is presented [21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report Core Views - The overall view on copper prices is bullish, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of reverse arbitrage positions between domestic and overseas markets in the remaining time of the third quarter [1] - For aluminum, in the short - term, it is advisable to hold at low prices under the low - inventory pattern and pay attention to the far - month inter - month and domestic - overseas reverse arbitrage; in the long - term, the domestic supply elasticity decreases, and the overseas supply is the main variable, so pay attention to the actual demand situation [2] - Regarding zinc, in the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see and focus on the sustainability of commodity sentiment due to the strong overseas and weak domestic situation; the domestic - overseas positive arbitrage can continue to be held, and attention can be paid to the inter - month positive arbitrage opportunity [5] - For nickel, the short - term real - world fundamentals are average, and the macro - level is mainly about the game of anti - involution policies. The opportunity to shrink the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can continue to be concerned [8] - For stainless steel, the fundamentals are generally weak. In the short - term, the macro - level follows the anti - involution expectation, and attention should be paid to the later policy direction [11] - For lead, it is expected that battery factories will replenish stocks next week, and the center of lead prices will rise [12] - For tin, in the short - term, it is recommended to sell short lightly at high prices due to the co - existence of domestic raw material supply disturbances and consumption decline expectations [13] - For industrial silicon, in the short - term, the supply and demand in August have turned to a balanced state, and if either the southwest or Hesheng reaches full production, the monthly balance will quickly turn to surplus; in the long - term, it is expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom [16] - For lithium carbonate, in the short - term, the price has a large upward elasticity; in the medium - to - long - term, if the resource - end disturbance risk is resolved, the price will still fluctuate at a low level, and the downward space needs a significant weakening of demand [18] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - In the first half of the week, copper prices found support around 78,000 yuan, and downstream point - pricing and inventory - stocking improved. In the second half of the week, with the decline of the US dollar index and the increase of overseas interest - rate cut expectations, copper prices were strong. The downstream start - up and purchasing power provided support, and the refined - scrap substitution effect worked, so the copper inventory accumulation trend was not strong [1] Aluminum - Supply increased slightly from January to May due to aluminum ingot imports. In August, demand is expected to be in the seasonal off - season, with weak aluminum product exports, a decline in the photovoltaic sector, and some downstream production cuts. Overseas demand has declined significantly. Inventory is expected to continue to accumulate slightly in August. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and in the long - term, the domestic supply elasticity decreases [2] Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, the domestic TC has difficulty rising, while the imported TC rises slowly. In August, the smelting increment is further realized. On the demand side, domestic demand weakens seasonally, and overseas, some refineries face production resistance. Domestic social inventory rises, and overseas LME inventory decreases rapidly [5] Nickel - On the supply side, the pure nickel production remains at a high level. On the demand side, it is generally weak, and the premium has been stable recently. The domestic and overseas nickel plate inventories remain stable [8] Stainless Steel - On the supply side, some steel mills have reduced production passively. On the demand side, it is mainly for rigid needs, and some inventory replenishment has increased due to the macro - environment. The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remain stable. The inventory in Xijiao and Foshan has decreased slightly, and the exchange warehouse receipts remain stable [11] Lead - This week, lead prices declined. On the supply side, the scrap volume is weak year - on - year, and the recycled lead maintains low - level operation. On the demand side, the battery finished - product inventory is high, and the market's peak - season expectation has fallen back to reality. The LME registered warehouse receipts have decreased [12] Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, the domestic smelting output may decline slightly from July to August, and overseas, the resumption of production signals are released but with recruitment difficulties. On the demand side, the solder elasticity is limited, and the terminal electronics and photovoltaic growth rates are expected to decline. The domestic inventory rises, and the overseas LME inventory is at a low level with a risk of short - squeeze [13] Industrial Silicon - In the short - term, the supply and demand in August have turned to a balanced state, and if either the southwest or Hesheng reaches full production, the monthly balance will quickly turn to surplus. In the long - term, the production capacity is still in significant surplus, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom [16] Lithium Carbonate - In the short - term, due to the resource - end compliance disturbances and the approaching downstream peak season, the price has a large upward elasticity. In the medium - to - long - term, if the resource - end disturbance risk is resolved, the price will still fluctuate at a low level [18]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The domestic macro situation is favorable for non - ferrous metals this week. The Q2 GDP data is good, and the anti - involution policy on commodities has led to expectations of supply - side reform, which boosts the non - ferrous metals sector. For copper, the price has obvious support at the bottom, and attention should be paid to restocking opportunities around 7.6 - 7.7. For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and reverse arbitrage opportunities. For zinc, short - term observation of the squeeze - out market is recommended, with long - term short - selling on rallies; long - short arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets can be held, and attention can be paid to positive arbitrage opportunities between months. For nickel, the short - term fundamentals are average, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio. For stainless steel, the fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to future policy trends. For lead, it is expected to fluctuate between 16800 - 17500 next week. For tin, short - term observation is recommended due to the coexistence of raw material supply disturbances and consumption decline expectations. For industrial silicon, if the start - up rate does not recover significantly in the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate. For lithium carbonate, the absolute price is expected to fluctuate, and a downward turning point requires significant inventory accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot goods [1][4][5][8][11][14][16] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the spot premium increased by 40, the scrap - refined copper spread increased by 440, the SHFE inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 10062. The LME inventory decreased by 100, and the LME cancelled warrants decreased by 1500 [1] - **Market Analysis**: The domestic macro situation is favorable, the scrap - refined spread has shrunk significantly, the refined copper rod start - up rate has rebounded faster than expected, and the spot import window has opened. The market is less sensitive to tariff pricing, overseas liquidity is loose with a possible interest rate cut in the second half of the year, and the domestic downstream start - up rate is okay during the off - season. Attention should be paid to the possibility of a reversal in copper logistics [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 190, the social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory increased by 3725. The spot import profit decreased by 246.21, and the three - month import profit decreased by 72.82 [1] - **Market Analysis**: Supply has increased slightly, with imports from January to May providing an increment. The demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, with flat supply and demand. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and reverse arbitrage opportunities in the context of low inventory [1] Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 500, the social inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE inventory remained unchanged. The LME inventory decreased by 875, and the LME cancelled warrants increased by 38425 [4] - **Market Analysis**: The zinc price has fluctuated upwards this week. The domestic TC in July has increased compared to June, and new production capacity in the southwest and central China has been realized. Domestic demand has weakened seasonally, and overseas demand in Europe is weak. The domestic social inventory has increased, and the overseas LME inventory has decreased. There is an increased risk of short - squeezing in lead and zinc, and attention should be paid to the resonance between domestic and foreign markets [4] Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 1850, the spot import return decreased by 222.41, and the LME C - 3M decreased by 12 [5] - **Market Analysis**: The pure nickel production remains at a high level, the demand is weak, and the premiums are stable. Both domestic and overseas nickel plate inventories have increased slightly. The tariff agreement between Indonesia and the US has no direct impact on pure nickel. The short - term fundamentals are average, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [5] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the price of waste stainless steel increased by 200 [5] - **Market Analysis**: Steel mills have partially reduced production passively since late May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and some restocking has increased due to the macro environment. The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remain stable. The inventories in Xijiao and Foshan have decreased slightly, and the exchange warehouse receipts have continued to decrease slightly. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to future policy trends [5] Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the spot premium increased by 10, the social inventory situation is not clear, and the SHFE inventory remained unchanged. The LME inventory decreased by 3475, and the LME cancelled warrants increased by 500 [8] - **Market Analysis**: The lead price has slightly declined this week. The scrap volume is weak year - on - year, the waste battery supply is tight, and the refined lead production has increased from April to June but the concentrates are tightening. The battery finished product inventory is high, and the market's peak - season expectations have declined. It is expected that there will be inventory accumulation in July, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 16800 - 17500 next week [8] Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the spot import return decreased by 1181.50, the spot export return increased by 817.65, the LME C - 3M increased by 9, and the LME inventory decreased by 50 [11] - **Market Analysis**: The tin price has fluctuated widely this week. The domestic smelting production may decline slightly in July - August due to low processing fees and upcoming maintenance. Overseas, there are signals of复产 in Wa State, and the import volume from Congo (Kinshasa) in June has exceeded expectations. The demand for solder is limited, and the growth rate of terminal electronics and photovoltaics is expected to decline. The domestic inventory has increased, and the LME inventory is at a low level but the inventory accumulation turning point is emerging. Short - term observation is recommended [11] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 565, the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 515, the 553 East China basis decreased by 415, the 553 Tianjin basis decreased by 415, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 252 [14] - **Market Analysis**: The start - up rate of leading enterprises has decreased again due to power station issues, and there is no expected resumption date. Yunnan and Sichuan have slightly resumed production, with Yunnan's start - up rate remaining low. The monthly production in July and later is expected to decline, and the supply - demand balance has shifted to inventory reduction. If the start - up rate does not recover significantly in the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate [14] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 1350, the SMM industrial carbon price increased by 1300, the basis of the main contract decreased by 30, the basis of the near - month contract increased by 1350, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 270 [16] - **Market Analysis**: The lithium carbonate futures price has continued to rise recently due to factors such as warehouse receipt games, supply - side news disturbances, and the repair of weak demand expectations. The basis has weakened slightly. After the simultaneous rise of futures and spot prices, downstream acceptance is low, and the actual transaction volume is small. The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory pressure in the intermediate links is gradually accumulating. The absolute price is expected to fluctuate, and a downward turning point requires significant inventory accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot goods [16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that after the US-China phase one trade agreement in May, the price of Zheng cotton has experienced three rounds of increases, returning to levels seen before the Qingming Festival, but the market outlook remains divided with both upward and downward pressures [1][3] - The USDA's June supply and demand report has lowered the global cotton production, consumption, beginning and ending stocks, and global trade volume for the 2024/2025 season, which has a neutral to slightly bullish impact [1] - For the 2025/2026 season, the USDA has also reduced the cotton production, beginning, and ending stocks in the US, maintaining a neutral to slightly bullish outlook [1] Group 2 - The USDA's June report estimates China's cotton production at 6.5 million tons, which may be underestimated, while the domestic market shows weak performance with a decline in the fabric sector's operating rate [2] - The export market for cotton textiles has performed better than expected, with May exports showing a 2% month-on-month increase and a 10% year-on-year increase, characterized by a "price for volume" strategy [2] - The average export price of cotton textiles to the US has continued to decline by 1.41%, indicating a trend of downgrading high-end products to gain market share [2] Group 3 - From April to June, there has been a significant reduction in port cotton imports, aligning with positive export data, while US retail inventories remain stable [3] - Investors are optimistic about Zheng cotton due to undervaluation recovery, but further price increases may require macroeconomic support, while downward adjustments may depend on negative feedback from downstream markets [3] - The overall cotton price breakthrough relies on macroeconomic factors, and strategies such as internal and external spreads and the 2509 and 2511 reverse spread should be monitored [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - For copper, with the S232 investigation pending, the US dollar copper market may still siphon copper from other regions, and the copper market will face a tight - balance situation prone to squeezes. After the 232 investigation results are out, the arbitrage window may disappear, and if the copper tariff is below 15%, there may be a reverse flow of copper [1]. - For aluminum, supply has a slight increase, demand is expected to seasonally weaken in July, and the inventory is expected to be balanced. The short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and attention should be paid to demand and anti - arbitrage opportunities [1]. - For zinc, the price fluctuated upward this week due to high macro - sentiment. The supply is expected to increase, demand is seasonally weak, and the strategy is to short - allocate zinc and hold long - short arbitrage positions [2]. - For nickel, supply is at a high level, demand is weak, and the inventory overseas remains stable while domestic inventory decreases slightly. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [5]. - For stainless steel, supply has partial production cuts, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory has a slight increase. The short - term trend is expected to be weak [6]. - For lead, the price rebounded this week due to speculation. Supply is expected to slightly decrease in July, demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 16800 - 17300 [8]. - For tin, the price fluctuated upward due to commodity sentiment. Supply is affected by production cuts, demand has a downward trend, and the short - term supply - demand is weak with strong support at the bottom [11]. - For industrial silicon, due to the significant production cut of a leading enterprise, the supply - demand balance turns to de - stocking, and the price is expected to be strong in the short - term and bottom - run in the long - term [14]. - For lithium carbonate, the price increased due to speculation. Supply is expected to be in surplus next week, which will put pressure on the price, but the "anti - involution" policy may boost sentiment [16]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Market situation: The S232 investigation has led to a large amount of copper flowing to the US, reducing LME and domestic inventories. The price volatility has increased, and the LME cash - 3M spread has widened [1]. - Outlook: Before the S232 investigation results are out, the tight - balance situation will continue. After the results are out, the market logic may reverse [1]. Aluminum - Supply: There is a slight increase in supply, with imports providing an increment from January to May [1]. - Demand: Expected to seasonally weaken in July, with flat supply - demand [1]. - Inventory: Expected to be balanced in July [1]. Zinc - Supply: Domestic TC increased, and the supply is expected to increase by more than 5000 tons in July [2]. - Demand: Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand is also weak in some regions [2]. - Strategy: Short - allocate zinc and hold long - short arbitrage positions [2]. Nickel - Supply: Pure nickel production remains high, and nickel bean imports increased in May [5]. - Demand: Overall weak, with a slight increase in LME premium [5]. - Inventory: Overseas nickel plate inventory remains stable, and domestic inventory decreases slightly [5]. Stainless Steel - Supply: Some steel mills have partial production cuts since late May [6]. - Demand: Mainly for rigid needs [6]. - Inventory: There is a slight increase in inventory in two major regions [6]. Lead - Supply: Scrap battery supply is tight, and the supply is expected to slightly decrease in July [8]. - Demand: Battery inventory is high, and the demand is weak in the off - season [8]. - Price: Expected to fluctuate between 16800 - 17300 [8]. Tin - Supply: Myanmar's production resumption needs negotiation, and domestic production has decreased [11]. - Demand: Welding tin demand has limited elasticity, and terminal demand is expected to decline [11]. - Strategy: Hold long positions cautiously in the short - term and consider short positions after the maintenance period [11]. Industrial Silicon - Supply: A leading enterprise has significantly cut production, and the overall supply is expected to decrease [14]. - Demand: The market expectation turns to de - stocking [14]. - Price: Expected to be strong in the short - term and bottom - run in the long - term [14]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply: Production is expected to increase with the复产 of some enterprises [16]. - Demand: Weak, with limited improvement from policies [16]. - Price: Supply surplus will put pressure on the price, but the "anti - involution" policy may boost sentiment [16]