Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall view on copper prices is bullish, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of long overseas and short domestic positions in the remaining time of the third quarter [1]. - For aluminum, short - term fundamentals are acceptable. Hold at low prices under the low - inventory pattern, and pay attention to far - month inter - month and long overseas and short domestic positions; in the long term, pay attention to actual demand as overseas supply is the main variable [2]. - For zinc, in the short term, it shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on the sustainability of commodity sentiment. Long overseas and short domestic positions can be continued to hold, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of inter - month long positions [3]. - For nickel, the short - term real - world fundamentals are average. The opportunity for the contraction of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can continue to be monitored [8]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak overall. In the short term, the macro - level follows the anti - involution expectations, and attention should be paid to the later policy direction [12]. - For lead, it is expected that battery manufacturers will replenish their stocks next week, and the center of lead prices will rise [13]. - For tin, in the short term, it is recommended to lightly short at high prices as there are both raw material supply disturbances and consumption decline expectations [14]. - For industrial silicon, in the short term, the supply - demand balance has been achieved in August, and it may turn to surplus if one of the southwest region or Hesheng reaches full production. In the long - term, it will oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [17]. - For lithium carbonate, in the short term, the price has a large upward elasticity. In the long - term, if the resource - end disturbance risk is resolved, it will still oscillate at a low level [19]. Summary by Metal Copper - In the first half of the week, copper prices were supported around 78,000 yuan, and downstream purchasing improved. In the second half of the week, with the decline of the US dollar index and low domestic refined - scrap spreads, copper prices were strong, attempting to break through 79,000 yuan on Friday night [1]. Aluminum - Supply increased slightly, with aluminum ingot imports providing an increment from January to May. August is a seasonal off - peak for demand, with weak aluminum product exports, a decline in the photovoltaic sector, and some downstream production cuts. Overseas demand declined significantly. In August, inventory is expected to continue to accumulate slightly [2]. Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, domestic TC has difficulty rising, while imported TC is rising slowly. In August, the increase in smelting production was further realized. On the demand side, domestic demand weakened seasonally, and most spot prices outside Shanghai turned to discounts. Overseas, European demand is average, but some smelters face production resistance due to processing fees. Domestic social inventory is rising, while overseas LME inventory is decreasing rapidly [3]. Nickel - On the supply side, pure nickel production remains at a high level. On the demand side, it is generally weak, and the premium has been stable recently. In terms of inventory, both domestic and overseas nickel plate inventories remain unchanged [8]. Stainless Steel - On the supply side, some steel mills have cut production passively, and some in the north are affected by the parade. On the demand side, it is mainly driven by rigid demand, and some restocking has increased due to the macro - environment. In terms of cost, the prices of nickel - iron and chrome - iron remain stable. In terms of inventory, inventories in Xijiao and Foshan have decreased slightly, and exchange warehouse receipts remain unchanged [12]. Lead - This week, lead prices declined. On the supply side, the scrap volume is weak year - on - year, and the supply of waste batteries is tight. The recycling rate of recycled lead remains low. On the demand side, the inventory of finished batteries is high, and the market's expectation of the peak season has fallen short of reality. The domestic social inventory is rising, and LME registered warehouse receipts have decreased [13]. Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, the processing fees at the mine end are low, and some domestic smelters are reducing production and entering the maintenance period. Overseas, there are signals of复产 in Wa State, but the recruitment is difficult. On the demand side, the elasticity of solder is limited, and the terminal electronics and photovoltaic sectors are expected to slow down. Domestic inventory is rising, while overseas LME inventory is at a low level, with a risk of short - squeezing [14]. Industrial Silicon - In the short term, the supply - demand balance has been achieved in August, and it may turn to surplus if one of the southwest region or Hesheng reaches full production. In the long - term, the over - capacity situation is still serious, and it will oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [17]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, due to resource - end compliance disturbances and the approaching downstream peak season, the price has a large upward elasticity. In the long - term, if the resource - end risk is resolved, it will still oscillate at a low level [19].

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/08/12 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/08/05 150 301 72543 18767 -172.87 266.63 46.0 56.0 -67.32 153850 12000 2025/08/06 105 108 72543 20346 -79.58 430.61 46.0 57.0 -62.62 156125 10925 2025/08/07 105 156 72543 20145 -79.96 359.16 46.0 57.0 -65.63 156000 11125 2025/08/08 115 216 81933 21272 -15.62 225.75 46.0 57.0 -69.55 155850 11075 2025/08/11 150 495 81933 23275 -117.15 335.57 45.0 55.0 -83.25 155700 11975 变化 35 279 0 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The domestic macro situation is favorable for non - ferrous metals this week. The copper price has obvious support at the bottom, and attention should be paid to restocking opportunities around 7.6 - 7.7. The aluminum market has a short - term good fundamental situation, and attention should be paid to demand and anti - arbitrage opportunities. The zinc price fluctuates upward, and attention should be paid to the squeeze - out market and arbitrage opportunities. The nickel market has a general short - term fundamental situation, and attention can be paid to the contraction opportunity of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio. The stainless - steel market has a weak fundamental situation, and attention should be paid to policy trends. The lead price has a slight correction, and it is expected to fluctuate between 16800 - 17500 next week. The tin price fluctuates widely, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The industrial silicon market is expected to change from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction, and the disk is expected to fluctuate. The lithium carbonate price is expected to fluctuate, and the downward inflection point needs to see significant inventory accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot goods [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 18 to 24, the spot premium had a change of - 30, the waste - refined copper price difference had a change of - 67, the SHFE inventory had a change of 648, etc. - **Market Situation**: Domestically, the GDP data in the second quarter is good, and the "anti - involution" policy on commodities boosts the non - ferrous market. The refined - waste price difference has shrunk significantly, the refined copper rod operating rate has rebounded, and the spot premium and downstream restocking sentiment are good. The spot import window has opened once this week, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of long - position import logistics in the third and fourth quarters. The market is insensitive to tariff pricing, overseas liquidity is loose with a possible interest - rate cut in the second half of the year, and the domestic downstream operating rate is okay in the off - season. Attention should be paid to the possibility of copper logistics reversal [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 18 to 24, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 120, the domestic alumina price increased by 4, the SHFE social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory increased by 3300. - **Market Situation**: Supply has increased slightly, with aluminum ingot imports providing an increment from January to May. The demand in July is expected to weaken seasonally, with flat supply and demand. The inventory is expected to be balanced in July. The short - term fundamental situation is okay, and attention should be paid to demand. In the context of low inventory, attention should be paid to the inter - month and internal - external anti - arbitrage [1] Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 18 to 24, the zinc price fluctuated upward, the domestic social inventory was stable, and the LME inventory decreased by 1575. - **Market Situation**: In July, the domestic TC increased, and some smelters had maintenance, but new production capacity in the southwest and central China was put into operation. Domestic demand weakened seasonally, and overseas demand in Europe was weak. The domestic social inventory increased slowly, and the LME inventory decreased after May, increasing the risk of short - squeezing. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see the sustainability of the short - squeezing market and manage positions. In the long - term, it is advisable to short on rallies. Internal - external positive arbitrage can be held, and attention can be paid to inter - month positive arbitrage opportunities [2] Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 18 to 24, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 700. - **Market Situation**: The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, the demand is weak, and the premium is stable. The domestic and overseas nickel plate inventories have increased slightly. The tariff agreement between Indonesia and the US has no direct impact on pure nickel. The short - term fundamental situation is general, and the macro - situation is favorable for commodities. Attention can be paid to the contraction opportunity of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [3] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 18 to 24, the prices of 304 cold - rolled coils, 304 hot - rolled coils, etc., remained unchanged. - **Market Situation**: Since late May, some steel mills have reduced production passively. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and some restocking has increased due to the macro - environment. The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remain stable. The inventories in Xijiao and Foshan have decreased slightly, and the exchange warehouse receipts have continued to decrease slightly. The fundamental situation is weak, and attention should be paid to policy trends [3] Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 18 to 24, the lead price decreased slightly, the domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory increased by 6175. - **Market Situation**: The supply side has weak scrap volume, tight waste battery demand, and low operating rate of recycled lead. The demand side has high battery inventory, flat battery operating rate, and weakening peak - season expectation. The refined - waste price difference is 0, and the inventory in Jiyuan is tight. It is expected that the supply will increase slightly in July, and there will be inventory accumulation. Affected by the supply - side reform sentiment of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the lead price is expected to fluctuate between 16800 - 17500 next week [6] Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 18 to 24, the tin price fluctuated widely, the domestic inventory increased, and the LME inventory remained unchanged. - **Market Situation**: The supply side has low processing fees at the mine end, some domestic smelters reducing production and entering the maintenance period, and possible slight decline in domestic smelting output in July and August. Overseas, there are signals of production resumption in Wa State, and the import volume from the DRC in June exceeded expectations. The demand side has limited solder elasticity, strong expectation of decline in terminal electronics and photovoltaic growth, and increasing domestic inventory. The LME inventory is at a low level, but the inventory - accumulation inflection point is emerging. The short - term supply and demand are both weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [8] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 18 to 24, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 165, and the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 165. - **Market Situation**: The operating rate of leading enterprises has decreased again due to power - station problems, and there is no expected resumption date. There is slight production resumption in Yunnan and Sichuan, with low operating rate in Yunnan. The monthly output in July and subsequent months is expected to decline from the previous significant increase, and the supply - demand balance has changed to inventory reduction. The basis has strengthened rapidly, stimulating downstream speculative and restocking sentiment. The industrial silicon disk is expected to fluctuate if the operating rate does not recover significantly in the short term [10] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 18 to 24, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 100, and the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 100. - **Market Situation**: Affected by factors such as warehouse - receipt game, supply - side news disturbance, and weak - demand expectation repair, the lithium carbonate futures price has continued to rise. The basis has weakened slightly, and the market trading is mainly in the trader segment. The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory pressure in the intermediate link is gradually accumulating. The upstream has weak delivery willingness, and the downstream large enterprises actively receive goods. The lithium carbonate price is expected to fluctuate, and the downward inflection point needs to see significant inventory accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot goods [12]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The domestic macro situation is favorable for non - ferrous metals this week. The Q2 GDP data is good, and the anti - involution policy on commodities has led to expectations of supply - side reform, which boosts the non - ferrous metals sector. For copper, the price has obvious support at the bottom, and attention should be paid to restocking opportunities around 7.6 - 7.7. For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and reverse arbitrage opportunities. For zinc, short - term observation of the squeeze - out market is recommended, with long - term short - selling on rallies; long - short arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets can be held, and attention can be paid to positive arbitrage opportunities between months. For nickel, the short - term fundamentals are average, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio. For stainless steel, the fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to future policy trends. For lead, it is expected to fluctuate between 16800 - 17500 next week. For tin, short - term observation is recommended due to the coexistence of raw material supply disturbances and consumption decline expectations. For industrial silicon, if the start - up rate does not recover significantly in the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate. For lithium carbonate, the absolute price is expected to fluctuate, and a downward turning point requires significant inventory accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot goods [1][4][5][8][11][14][16] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the spot premium increased by 40, the scrap - refined copper spread increased by 440, the SHFE inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 10062. The LME inventory decreased by 100, and the LME cancelled warrants decreased by 1500 [1] - **Market Analysis**: The domestic macro situation is favorable, the scrap - refined spread has shrunk significantly, the refined copper rod start - up rate has rebounded faster than expected, and the spot import window has opened. The market is less sensitive to tariff pricing, overseas liquidity is loose with a possible interest rate cut in the second half of the year, and the domestic downstream start - up rate is okay during the off - season. Attention should be paid to the possibility of a reversal in copper logistics [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 190, the social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory increased by 3725. The spot import profit decreased by 246.21, and the three - month import profit decreased by 72.82 [1] - **Market Analysis**: Supply has increased slightly, with imports from January to May providing an increment. The demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, with flat supply and demand. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and reverse arbitrage opportunities in the context of low inventory [1] Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 500, the social inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE inventory remained unchanged. The LME inventory decreased by 875, and the LME cancelled warrants increased by 38425 [4] - **Market Analysis**: The zinc price has fluctuated upwards this week. The domestic TC in July has increased compared to June, and new production capacity in the southwest and central China has been realized. Domestic demand has weakened seasonally, and overseas demand in Europe is weak. The domestic social inventory has increased, and the overseas LME inventory has decreased. There is an increased risk of short - squeezing in lead and zinc, and attention should be paid to the resonance between domestic and foreign markets [4] Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 1850, the spot import return decreased by 222.41, and the LME C - 3M decreased by 12 [5] - **Market Analysis**: The pure nickel production remains at a high level, the demand is weak, and the premiums are stable. Both domestic and overseas nickel plate inventories have increased slightly. The tariff agreement between Indonesia and the US has no direct impact on pure nickel. The short - term fundamentals are average, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [5] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the price of waste stainless steel increased by 200 [5] - **Market Analysis**: Steel mills have partially reduced production passively since late May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and some restocking has increased due to the macro environment. The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remain stable. The inventories in Xijiao and Foshan have decreased slightly, and the exchange warehouse receipts have continued to decrease slightly. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to future policy trends [5] Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the spot premium increased by 10, the social inventory situation is not clear, and the SHFE inventory remained unchanged. The LME inventory decreased by 3475, and the LME cancelled warrants increased by 500 [8] - **Market Analysis**: The lead price has slightly declined this week. The scrap volume is weak year - on - year, the waste battery supply is tight, and the refined lead production has increased from April to June but the concentrates are tightening. The battery finished product inventory is high, and the market's peak - season expectations have declined. It is expected that there will be inventory accumulation in July, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 16800 - 17500 next week [8] Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the spot import return decreased by 1181.50, the spot export return increased by 817.65, the LME C - 3M increased by 9, and the LME inventory decreased by 50 [11] - **Market Analysis**: The tin price has fluctuated widely this week. The domestic smelting production may decline slightly in July - August due to low processing fees and upcoming maintenance. Overseas, there are signals of复产 in Wa State, and the import volume from Congo (Kinshasa) in June has exceeded expectations. The demand for solder is limited, and the growth rate of terminal electronics and photovoltaics is expected to decline. The domestic inventory has increased, and the LME inventory is at a low level but the inventory accumulation turning point is emerging. Short - term observation is recommended [11] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 565, the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 515, the 553 East China basis decreased by 415, the 553 Tianjin basis decreased by 415, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 252 [14] - **Market Analysis**: The start - up rate of leading enterprises has decreased again due to power station issues, and there is no expected resumption date. Yunnan and Sichuan have slightly resumed production, with Yunnan's start - up rate remaining low. The monthly production in July and later is expected to decline, and the supply - demand balance has shifted to inventory reduction. If the start - up rate does not recover significantly in the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate [14] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 1350, the SMM industrial carbon price increased by 1300, the basis of the main contract decreased by 30, the basis of the near - month contract increased by 1350, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 270 [16] - **Market Analysis**: The lithium carbonate futures price has continued to rise recently due to factors such as warehouse receipt games, supply - side news disturbances, and the repair of weak demand expectations. The basis has weakened slightly. After the simultaneous rise of futures and spot prices, downstream acceptance is low, and the actual transaction volume is small. The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory pressure in the intermediate links is gradually accumulating. The absolute price is expected to fluctuate, and a downward turning point requires significant inventory accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot goods [16]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The macroeconomic environment in both China and the U.S. is showing signs of concern due to trade issues, with manufacturing PMI indicating a decline in economic activity [1] - Recent domestic meetings suggest strong policy support expectations, alongside a potential easing of trade tensions between China and the U.S. [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics Copper Market - Supply constraints in copper mining persist, with tight supply conditions expected to continue [2] - Despite production increases, there are pressures for supply contraction due to mining challenges [2] - Demand has improved post-Qingming Festival, but overall investment in power engineering is lagging compared to last year [2][3] - Domestic electrolytic copper inventories remain low, prompting strategies to capitalize on market conditions [3][12] Aluminum Market - Aluminum supply constraints are well-known, with no significant increases expected [5] - Downstream demand for aluminum is declining as the industry enters a seasonal downturn [6] - The production of aluminum is under pressure due to reduced demand, leading to profit compression [6] - The supply of bauxite remains ample, but the overall aluminum market is facing downward price pressure [7][8] - The aluminum market is expected to experience a seasonal decline in production, impacting profit margins [18] Strategic Insights - A strategy of "backwardation" in the aluminum market is suggested, as supply pressures and reduced demand are anticipated [18][19] - The copper market is experiencing a "month spread" strategy, indicating potential for short-term gains despite overall market concerns [4][22] - The overall sentiment in the aluminum market is bearish, with recommendations to adopt a cautious approach to trading strategies [24] Key Data Points - The copper price has reached levels where downstream orders are slowing, indicating a potential market correction [12] - The domestic copper mining output is constrained, with global production growth remaining limited [10][11] - The aluminum market is facing a significant decline in demand, particularly in sectors related to construction and new energy vehicles [13][17] Conclusion - The current market conditions for both copper and aluminum indicate a complex interplay of supply constraints and fluctuating demand, necessitating careful monitoring and strategic positioning by investors [24]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - For copper, the inventory drawdown slope may continue to slow down, and attention should be paid to the consumption inflection point. The upward momentum of the monthly spread requires substantial shortages or a decline in the absolute price. [1] - For aluminum, the supply-demand gap remains in May, and the inventory is expected to decline gently from May to July. The aluminum price may rebound with the inventory drawdown. The monthly spread long position can be held if the absolute price drops. [2] - For zinc, the price fluctuated widely this week. The inventory accumulation acceleration inflection point is expected to occur at the end of May or early June. It is recommended to short at high prices and continue to hold the long position in the domestic and foreign price spread. [5] - For nickel, the short-term fundamental situation is average, but supported by tariff and mine disturbances, opportunities for the contraction of the nickel-stainless steel price ratio can continue to be monitored. [6] - For stainless steel, the short-term is a mix of long and short factors, and the reverse spread position can be rolled over and continued to be held. [8] - For lead, the price is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 and 17,000 next week, and the supply is expected to decrease in May. [9][10] - For tin, the short-term is recommended to wait and see, and the medium- and long-term should focus on shorting opportunities. [12] - For industrial silicon, the short-term shows a pattern of double reduction in supply and demand, and the medium- and long-term price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. [14] - For lithium carbonate, the short-term downstream demand enters a small peak season, but the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the medium and long term. [16] Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: From May 16 to May 22, the Shanghai copper spot premium decreased by 140, the waste refined copper spread decreased by 263, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 9,464. [1] - **Market Situation**: The domestic inventory showed an inflection point this week, with high selling pressure. The demand shows strong reality and weak expectations, and the inventory drawdown slope may slow down. [1] Aluminum - **Market Data**: From May 16 to May 22, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 50, the domestic alumina price increased by 52, and the SHFE social inventory remained unchanged. [1] - **Market Situation**: The supply increased slightly in 1 - 3 months, and the demand decline in May was not obvious. The inventory is expected to decline gently from May to July, and the aluminum price may rebound. [2] Zinc - **Market Data**: From May 16 to May 22, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 110, the domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 1,650. [5] - **Market Situation**: The price fluctuated widely this week. The supply side had a slight decrease in smelting maintenance in May, and the demand side had general domestic demand and a slight recovery in overseas demand. The inventory accumulation acceleration inflection point is expected to occur at the end of May or early June. [5] Nickel - **Market Data**: From May 16 to May 22, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 100, the spot import return decreased by 489.12, and the LME inventory decreased by 876. [6] - **Market Situation**: The pure nickel production remained at a high level, the demand was weak, and the overseas nickel beans had a slight inventory drawdown. The short-term fundamental situation is average, but supported by tariff and mine disturbances. [6] Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From May 16 to May 22, the price of 304 cold-rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of waste stainless steel increased by 50. [6] - **Market Situation**: The production may decrease passively in May, the demand is mainly rigid, and the inventory in Xijiao and Foshan increased slightly. The short-term is a mix of long and short factors. [6][8] Lead - **Market Data**: From May 16 to May 22, the spot premium decreased by 5, the LME inventory increased by 13,700, and the LME cancelled warrants decreased by 4,125. [8] - **Market Situation**: The price fluctuated upward this week. The supply side had tight raw materials and concentrated capacity release in the middle reaches, and the demand side had weak overall demand. The price is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 and 17,000 next week. [9][10] Tin - **Market Data**: From May 16 to May 22, the spot import return increased by 2,110.12, the spot export return decreased by 1,586.48, and the LME inventory decreased by 5. [12] - **Market Situation**: The price fluctuated narrowly this week. The supply side had mine supply disturbances, and the demand side had limited elasticity. The short-term is recommended to wait and see, and the medium- and long-term should focus on shorting opportunities. [12] Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From May 16 to May 22, the 553 East China basis decreased by 65, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 355. [14] - **Market Situation**: The northern large factories maintained production cuts this week, and the downstream demand continued to weaken. The short-term shows a pattern of double reduction in supply and demand, and the medium- and long-term price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. [14] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From May 16 to May 22, the SMM electric carbon price remained unchanged, the SMM industrial carbon price remained unchanged, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 530. [16] - **Market Situation**: The price fluctuated downward this week. The overall production increased, and the inventory accumulation speed slowed down. The short-term downstream demand enters a small peak season, but the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the medium and long term. [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For copper, the inventory drawdown slope may continue to slow down, and attention should be paid to the consumption inflection point. For the monthly spread, the subsequent upward momentum requires substantial shortages or a decline in absolute prices [1]. - For aluminum, with the positive progress in Sino - US trade negotiations and the alleviation of global trade tensions, the aluminum price rebounds with inventory drawdown. The monthly spread long - short arbitrage can be held if the absolute price drops [2]. - For zinc, attention should be paid to the inflection point from inventory drawdown to accumulation. It is recommended to short at high prices, and the domestic - foreign long - short arbitrage can be continued [5]. - For nickel, opportunities for the contraction of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can continue to be monitored [6]. - For stainless steel, in the short term, with long and short factors intertwined, the reverse arbitrage can be rolled over and held [7]. - For lead, it is expected to oscillate in the range of 16,800 - 17,000 next week, and the supply is expected to decrease in May [8]. - For tin, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium - long term [9]. - For industrial silicon, in the medium - long term, the price trend is expected to be mainly bottom - oscillating, anchored to the cash - flow cost of leading large enterprises [11]. - For lithium carbonate, in the medium - long cycle, if the operating rate of leading mining - smelting integrated enterprises does not significantly decline, the price will still oscillate weakly [13]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the spot premium decreased by 125, the waste - refined copper price difference decreased by 221, and the LME inventory decreased by 1,925 [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic inventory showed an inflection point this week. The smelting plants were eager to sell under high monthly spreads, and downstream orders slowed down. The demand has strong current reality but weak future expectations [1]. Aluminum - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 100, and the domestic alumina price increased by 42 [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increased slightly, and the demand in May did not decline significantly. The inventory is expected to be drawn down gently from May to July [2]. Zinc - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 150, and the LME inventory decreased by 1,150 [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic TC remained unchanged this week, and the import TC increased slightly. The demand at home has general elasticity, and overseas demand has slightly recovered. The inventory accumulation inflection point is expected to appear at the end of May or early June [5]. Nickel - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the沪镍现货 price decreased by 150, and the LME inventory decreased by 312 [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The pure nickel production remained at a high level, and the overall demand was weak. The overseas nickel beans inventory decreased slightly, and the domestic inventory remained stable [6]. Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, 430 cold - rolled, and scrap stainless steel remained unchanged [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production increased seasonally in April, and steel mills may cut production passively in May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs [7]. Lead - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the lead spot premium increased by 10, and the LME inventory decreased by 36,375 [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side has tight raw materials, and the demand side has limited overall demand. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,000 next week [8]. Tin - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the spot import gain increased by 5,126.89, and the LME inventory increased by 15 [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side has some alleviation of long - term ore shortages, but there are still domestic supply disturbances. The demand side has limited elasticity, and the downstream lacks consumption power [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the 553 East China basis decreased by 55, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 596 [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, there is a pattern of double - reduction in supply and demand. In the medium - long term, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From May 15 - 21, the SMM electric carbon price decreased by 200, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 152 [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overall production increased this week, and the inventory accumulation speed slowed down. In the medium - long term, the price may oscillate weakly [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For copper, the inventory destocking slope may continue to slow down, and attention should be paid to the consumption inflection point. The upward momentum of the monthly spread requires substantial shortages or a decline in absolute prices. [1] - For aluminum, the supply increases slightly, and the demand in May is not expected to decline significantly. There is still a supply - demand gap. The inventory is expected to be depleted gently from May to July. The aluminum price may rebound with destocking. The long - spread arbitrage can be held if the absolute price drops. [1] - For zinc, the zinc price fluctuates widely this week. Pay attention to the inflection point from destocking to stockpiling, and it is recommended to short at high prices. The long - spread arbitrage at home and abroad can be held. [3] - For nickel, the supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, the demand is weak, and the overseas nickel beans are slightly destocked. The opportunity to shrink the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continuously monitored. [4] - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak, but there is macro - positive support. The short - spread arbitrage can be rolled over and held. [5] - For lead, the lead price fluctuates and rises this week. It is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 - 17,000 next week, and the supply is expected to decrease in May. [7] - For tin, the tin price fluctuates narrowly this week. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and in the long - term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities. [8] - For industrial silicon, the short - term supply - demand double - reduction pattern is obvious, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the long - term. [9] - For lithium carbonate, the price oscillates and declines. In the short - term, the downstream demand enters a small peak season, but the price may still oscillate weakly in the long - term. [11] Summaries by Metals Copper - **Market Situation**: The domestic inventory shows an inflection point this week. The spot premium in North China remains weak, and the overall selling pressure is high. The demand has strong current reality but weak expectations. [1] - **Data Changes**: From May 13 - 19, the inventory decreased by 5,050 tons, and the LME C - 3M spread changed from 19.17 to 15.52. [1] Aluminum - **Market Situation**: The supply increases slightly, and the demand in May is not expected to decline significantly. The inventory is expected to be depleted gently from May to July. [1] - **Data Changes**: From May 13 - 19, the LME inventory decreased by 2,000 tons, and the LME C - 3M spread changed from 2.82 to 1.42. [1] Zinc - **Market Situation**: The zinc price fluctuates widely this week. The supply side has a slight decrease in smelting maintenance in May, and the demand side has general domestic demand elasticity and a slight recovery in European demand. [3] - **Data Changes**: From May 13 - 19, the LME inventory decreased by 3,400 tons, and the LME C - 3M spread changed from - 27 to - 32. [3] Nickel - **Market Situation**: The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, the demand is weak, and the overseas nickel beans are slightly destocked. [4] - **Data Changes**: From May 13 - 19, the LME inventory increased by 6,786 tons, and the LME C - 3M spread changed from - 194 to - 202. [4] Stainless Steel - **Market Situation**: The supply may be reduced passively in May, the demand is mainly rigid, the cost of ferronickel is under pressure, and the inventory in Xifu area accumulates slightly. [5] - **Data Changes**: From May 13 - 19, the price of 201 cold - rolled coil decreased by 25. [5] Lead - **Market Situation**: The lead price fluctuates and rises this week. The supply side has tight raw materials, and the demand side has limited overall demand. [7] - **Data Changes**: From May 13 - 19, the LME inventory decreased by 6,825 tons, and the LME C - 3M spread changed from - 4 to - 18. [6] Tin - **Market Situation**: The tin price fluctuates narrowly this week. The supply side has some production cuts in China, and the demand side has limited elasticity. [8] - **Data Changes**: From May 13 - 19, the LME inventory increased by 5 tons, and the LME C - 3M spread changed from - 19 to - 56. [8] Industrial Silicon - **Market Situation**: The short - term supply - demand double - reduction pattern is obvious, and the price is at a low level. The social inventory begins to be depleted. [9] - **Data Changes**: From May 13 - 19, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 135, and the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 85. [9] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: The price oscillates and declines. The production increases, the inventory accumulation slows down, and the downstream demand has mixed signals. [11] - **Data Changes**: From May 13 - 19, the SMM electric carbon price decreased by 800, and the SMM industrial carbon price decreased by 800. [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The inventory decline slope of copper may continue to slow down, and attention should be paid to the consumption inflection point. For the month - spread, follow - up upward momentum requires substantial shortages or a decline in absolute prices [1] - With the easing of the global trade tension and the decline in inventory, the aluminum price is expected to rebound. The month - spread positive arbitrage can be held if the absolute price drops [2] - For zinc, pay attention to the turning point from inventory decline to accumulation, and it is recommended to short at high prices. The internal - external positive arbitrage can be continued [5] - For nickel, continue to pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6] - For stainless steel, short - term long and short factors are intertwined, and the reverse arbitrage can be rolled over and held [8] - Lead is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,800 - 17,000 next week, and the supply in May is expected to decrease cyclically [10] - For tin, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium - long term [12] - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, anchored to the cash - flow cost of leading large enterprises in the medium - long term [14] - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate weakly in the medium - long term, and there may be short - term replenishment demand from downstream [16] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: From May 12 - 16, the spot premium of Shanghai copper changed by 430, the waste - refined copper price difference increased by 150, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 2,712. The LME inventory decreased by 5,275 [1] - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic inventory showed an inflection point this week. The smelters were eager to sell under the high monthly spread, and downstream orders slowed down. The demand has strong current reality but weak future expectations [1] Aluminum - **Market Data**: From May 12 - 16, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 80, the domestic alumina price increased by 30, and the Shanghai aluminum social inventory decreased. The LME inventory decreased by 1,825 [1][2] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increased slightly, and the import of aluminum ingots was large from January to March. The demand in May is expected to decline slightly, and there is still a supply - demand gap. The inventory is expected to decline gently from May to July [2] Zinc - **Market Data**: From May 12 - 16, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 130, the domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 975 [5] - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic TC remained unchanged this week, and the imported TC increased slightly. The domestic demand has general elasticity, and the export can be maintained. Overseas demand in Europe has slightly recovered [5] Nickel - **Market Data**: From May 12 - 16, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 3,924 [6] - **Supply and Demand**: The production of pure nickel remained at a high level. The overall demand was weak, and the overseas nickel beans inventory decreased slightly [6] Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From May 12 - 16, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of waste stainless steel decreased by 50 [6] - **Supply and Demand**: The production increased seasonally in April, and steel mills may cut production passively in May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs [6][7] Lead - **Market Data**: From May 12 - 16, the spot premium decreased by 10, and the LME inventory decreased by 1,825 [8] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of raw materials was tight, and the demand was weak. The overall consumption was in the off - season, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a certain range next week [7][8][9] Tin - **Market Data**: From May 12 - 16, the spot import profit decreased by 45.78, and the LME inventory decreased by 10 [12] - **Supply and Demand**: The African Alphamin mine has resumed production, and the supply of domestic raw materials is still disturbed. The demand for solder is limited, and the growth of terminal electronics and photovoltaics is expected to decline [12] Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From May 12 - 16, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 165, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 49 [14] - **Supply and Demand**: Some factories have cut production, and the downstream demand for organic silicon and polysilicon is declining. The overall supply and demand have reached a tight balance, and the social inventory has started to decline [14] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From May 12 - 16, the SMM electric carbon price decreased by 300, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 40 [16] - **Supply and Demand**: The overall production has increased, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. The downstream demand is in a small peak season, but the demand improvement is less than expected. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the medium - long term [16]

LPG：原油支撑走弱，关注月间正套 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao029552@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | 研 | | --- | | 究 | | 所 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2506 | 4,400 | 0.02% | - | - | | 期 货 | PG2507 | 4,306 | 0.37% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2506 | 73,226 | 21123 | 60,054 | -3341 | | | PG2507 | 20,999 | 11489 | 32,709 | 4790 | | 价 差 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 广州国产气对06合约价差 | 800 | | 801 | | | | 广州进口气对07合约价差 | 944 | | 851 | | | 产业链重要 | PDH开工率 | 本 ...