Group 1 - The food and beverage industry has entered a new normal in 2023, with a weak overall consumption environment and a continued trend towards high quality-price ratio, functionality, health, and emotional consumption [1] - The demand for the liquor industry remains weak, compounded by new regulations leading to significant adjustments on both supply and demand sides, while the performance of mass-market food shows divergence, with beverages and snacks exhibiting better conditions [1] - Looking ahead to next year, the industry is expected to continue a weak recovery with strong differentiation, relying more on product innovation, fragmented channel layouts, and expanding consumer demographics [1] Group 2 - The liquor sector is anticipated to see improvements in financial reports, with a potential turning point in the first half of 2026, as demand-side policy impacts are expected to diminish [2] - Consumer scenarios are projected to gradually recover from significant suppression, with potential consumption policy stimuli driving demand, leading to a year-on-year positive change starting in the first half of the year [2] - The overall demand for mass-market food is stabilizing at low levels, with sub-industry performance showing divergence, and trends towards quality-price ratio, health, and emotional value consumption continuing [2]

Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage ETF Tianhong (159736) has shown positive performance with a recent increase in share value and significant net inflows, indicating strong investor interest in the sector [3][4]. Product Highlights - The food and beverage ETF Tianhong (159736) tracks the CSI Food and Beverage Index, focusing on leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, while also covering segments like beverages, dairy, and condiments. The top ten weighted stocks include Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili [3]. Related Events - Kweichow Moutai announced a share buyback plan of 1.5 to 3 billion yuan, with a maximum buyback price of 1887.63 yuan per share, marking its second share buyback since listing. This move is aimed at reducing registered capital and reflects confidence in the company's fundamentals [4]. - Moutai also proposed a cash dividend of 23.957 yuan per share, totaling approximately 30 billion yuan, pending shareholder approval. This dual approach of buyback and profit distribution aims to enhance shareholder returns [4]. - Luzhou Laojiao plans to invest 1.478 billion yuan in a historical culture industrial park and a liquor museum, with a construction period of about 50 months. This project aims to showcase and promote the history and culture of Chinese liquor, enhancing brand influence [5]. Institutional Perspectives - According to CICC, the food and beverage industry has entered a new normal with a weak overall consumption environment. Leading companies are focusing on stable operations and high-quality development, improving shareholder returns. The liquor sector continues to experience weak demand, with significant adjustments on both supply and demand sides [6]. - The outlook for the industry suggests a weak recovery with strong differentiation, relying on product innovation and channel expansion. Companies with strong brand power, product innovation, and efficient supply chains are expected to achieve high-quality growth [6]. - CICC anticipates that the liquor sector will see a gradual improvement in financial performance by 2026, with demand expected to stabilize and consumer policies potentially driving demand recovery [6].