Overall Viewpoint - This week, there were multiple supply-side events in the new energy sector: (1) Four ministries held a symposium on power and energy storage battery industries to regulate industry competition; (2) The "anti-involution" trend in the photovoltaic sector was influenced by market information, leading to a continuous decline in polysilicon futures; (3) Export tax rebates for photovoltaic products will be canceled starting April 1, 2026, while battery product export tax rates will gradually decrease to a cancellation by 2027. The new energy industry's "anti-involution" is inherently complex and challenging, with the state aiming to maintain international competitiveness. Balancing market and policy adjustments will evolve accordingly. Therefore, the direction of the photovoltaic industry's "anti-involution" will not change, focusing more on execution coordination and method restructuring; the battery industry is more about preventive reminders against energy storage battery oversupply; the adjustment of export tax rebate policies is expected to optimize the supply side, potentially leading to a short-term export rush [4]. Investment Perspective - (1) Market enthusiasm is currently focused on commercial aerospace and space computing, with wind power stocks such as Goldwind Technology, Taisheng Wind Energy, and Mingyang Smart Energy, as well as photovoltaic stocks like Junda Co., Oriental Sunrise, and Maiwei Co., having accumulated significant price increases, detaching from their core business fundamentals, making it inadvisable to chase high prices at this time [4]. - (2) AI power: There is optimism regarding domestic computing power demand rebounding after the NVIDIA H200 release; the HVDC solution is expected to ramp up, and SST technology and collaboration progress are likely to materialize; this can also align with AI applications to form sector rotation; the capital expenditure situation for North American data centers in 2027 needs to be assessed during the US stock annual report period for risk evaluation [4]. - (3) During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, based on the dual benefits of China's future industries and the EU carbon tariff in 2026, there is optimism for the coordinated, large-scale, and advanced construction of hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol [5]. - (4) For energy storage/lithium battery upstream: The overall game on the lithium battery demand side is focused on domestic energy storage bidding in 2026; data on energy storage and vehicle terminals still need to be tracked, making it difficult to confirm or refute; the investment ranking for lithium battery materials is: lithium carbonate > lithium hexafluorophosphate > aluminum foil > separator > copper foil > anode; lithium carbonate prices still have upward momentum in the short term [5].

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both the power equipment and environmental protection sectors [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights several recent developments in the new energy supply side, including a meeting by four ministries to regulate competition in the power and energy storage battery industries, a significant drop in polysilicon futures prices, and the planned cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026 [3]. - The report emphasizes that the "anti-involution" efforts in the new energy sector are complex and challenging, with the government aiming to maintain international competitiveness while balancing market and policy adjustments [3]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on domestic computing power, hydrogen energy, and energy storage upstream sectors, with specific companies suggested for investment based on their market positioning and growth potential [3]. Summary by Sections New Energy Supply Side - Recent events include a meeting to regulate competition in the power and energy storage battery industries, a decline in polysilicon futures, and adjustments to export tax rebates for photovoltaic products [3]. - The report suggests that the direction of "anti-involution" in the photovoltaic industry will remain unchanged, focusing on execution and coordination [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises caution in pursuing high-flying stocks in commercial aerospace and related sectors due to significant price increases detached from fundamental performance [3]. - It recommends focusing on companies like Sifang Co., Shenghong Co., and others in the AI power sector, as well as those involved in hydrogen energy and energy storage [3]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the domestic energy storage market and the upcoming bidding situation for energy storage projects [5][6]. Wind Power - The report notes that the newly installed capacity for onshore wind power in 2024 is expected to reach 75.8 GW, a year-on-year increase of 9.68%, while offshore wind power is projected to decline by 40.85% [7]. - The report indicates a significant increase in domestic wind power installations, with a total of 82.50 GW added from January to November 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 59.42% [7]. Lithium Battery Sector - The report discusses the impact of the cancellation of export tax rebates on lithium batteries, which is expected to create pressure on smaller battery manufacturers while benefiting larger firms [19]. - It highlights the anticipated demand for lithium batteries in 2026, with a total production estimate of approximately 210 GWh in China, despite a seasonal decline [20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring supply chain dynamics and pricing trends in lithium battery materials, particularly lithium carbonate and other components [21].