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光伏产业链技术升级与新场景机会
Dongguan Securities· 2026-01-30 07:31
Group 1 - The report highlights a transition in the photovoltaic (PV) industry from scale competition to efficiency and structural optimization, driven by the implementation of anti-involution policies. The focus is shifting from mere installation scale to cost reduction paths and structural increments under different technology routes [6][15][50] - The global cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic systems is projected to increase from 1.6 TW in 2023 to over 2.2 TW by the end of 2024, with an additional installation of over 600 GW [13][14] - The report indicates that the profitability of the main PV industry chain is gradually stabilizing, with a shift in focus towards efficiency improvement and quality development, moving away from low-efficiency competition characterized by price wars [15][22] Group 2 - The report identifies the current technological landscape in the PV industry as a coexistence of multiple technologies, with TOPCon as the main route, supported by BC and HJT technologies. TOPCon is expected to dominate with a projected capacity of approximately 967 GW by the end of 2025, accounting for 83% of global battery capacity [26][29] - BC technology is gaining traction due to its advantages in distributed and high-end markets, with a projected capacity of 83 GW by the end of 2025, while HJT technology, despite its efficiency advantages, faces challenges due to high costs [29][30] - The report emphasizes the acceleration of perovskite technology towards commercialization, with the first GW-scale production line expected to be operational in early 2025, marking a significant milestone in the industry's transition to large-scale production [31][33] Group 3 - The report discusses the emergence of extreme application scenarios, such as space solar power, which require stringent performance standards for PV products, including lightweight design and radiation resistance. The market for space solar cells is expected to grow from $1.38 billion in 2025 to $1.55 billion in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 12.3% [35][36] - The report outlines the importance of the North Exchange related companies, such as Liancheng CNC, which has established a strong R&D barrier and a global production network, providing integrated services in the PV and semiconductor equipment manufacturing sectors [39][42] - The investment strategy suggests focusing on three key areas: equipment and materials benefiting from TOPCon technology, key processes and auxiliary materials in the upgrade of BC and HJT technologies, and forward-looking targets in perovskite and space solar applications [50]