智通财经APP获悉，中国银河证券发布研报称，2025年风光储行业在供过于求中修复盈利，海外市场成 为亮点。2026年，在"反内卷"与科技共振下，行业有望开启新周期。投资关注新技术产业化、全球化布 局及供需改善机遇。 风电：量利齐升延续，双海提速打开空间 国内2026年陆风/海风装机或110-120GW/12-16GW，十五五或超120GW/年、海风15GW/年，全球海风 25-30年CAGR达27%。克制内卷+质量意识提升，陆风机组价格企稳，海风下行有限。产业链出海加 速，海外订单密集落地，主机厂盈利修复可期，海缆、桩基出海增量提利，零部件受益产能利用率及出 海。 光伏：反内卷盈利修复，新技术迭代与全球化布局引领增长 中国领跑，2026年装机或230-250GW（乐观），欧回温、美印旺，新兴市场起势。行业反内卷推动全产 业链盈利修复，组件顺价可期，最早春季可显。BC电池产能扩张、钙钛矿迈向量产、少银化技术突 破，技术迭代推溢价降本。 中国银河证券主要观点如下： 2025复盘与2026年展望 2025年风光储供过于求局面依旧，反内卷推动盈利修复，出海提振盈利。截至2025年12月31日，沪深 300指数+17. ...

这数据放以前想都不敢想，为啥储能突然这么火？关键是驱动逻辑变了。 以前各地搞储能，多少带点行政命令的意思，比如光伏项目必须配多少储能，不然不让并网。 文|有风 编辑|有风 2026年的中国新能源产业，已经悄悄换了赛道。 以前拼规模、抢装机的日子过去了，现在大家都在琢磨怎么把"高质量"这三个字落到实处。 全球能源转型的大背景下，"双碳"目标和新型电力系统建设就像两只大手，把能源结构往清洁化、低碳 化的方向猛推。 这时候，风电、光伏、储能这老三样，突然有了新故事。 第一个要说的，就得是今年存在感拉满的储能。 前几年提起储能，大家都觉得它是光伏、风电的"小跟班"，主要任务就是帮忙调调峰、填填谷。 但今年不一样了，2026年全球储能新增装机直接干到438GWh，同比增长62%，咱们中国更猛，预计能 到250GWh。 现在不一样，市场自己就催着储能发展。 你想啊，电力现货市场一放开，峰谷价差有时候能差好几倍，储能充谷放峰，中间的利润空间可不小。 再加上辅助服务、容量补偿这些收益渠道，储能已经从"成本项"变成了"收益项"。 光有收益还不够，技术创新才是硬道理。 锂电池今年又进步了，能量密度高了不少，成本反而降了点，这直接 ...

文 |万联万象 站在2026年的起点回望，中国新能源产业已走过狂飙突进的规模化扩张阶段。当光伏装机量问鼎全球， 风电累计并网容量占据世界半壁江山，一个更深层次的命题浮出水面： 在"双碳"目标与新型电力系统的宏伟蓝图下，风、光、储这些核心赛道，将呈现怎样的"三国演义"？ 过去，行业发展由单一技术突破或成本下降驱动；如今，驱动逻辑已深刻转变。能源安全、电力市场 化、以及AI等新业态带来的确定性负荷增长，共同编织出一张复杂的需求网络。 因此，2026年的核心看点，不再是"谁将胜出"的零和博弈，而是在系统性的约束与机遇下，各赛道如何 厘清自身定位、破解独特矛盾，并最终成为新"带头大哥"。 储能赛道：从配角到主角 2026年，储能产业正彻底告别作为可再生能源"附属品"的被动角色，在全球范围内迎来由多重强劲动力 驱动的高景气周期。机构预测，2026年全球储能新增装机将达438GWh，同比大幅增长62%，中国市场 增速更为迅猛，预计将达250GWh。 不难看出，储能核心驱动因素已实现根本性跃迁。国内储能发展的核心逻辑正从行政性"强制配储"转向 经济性驱动。随着新能源全电量参与电力市场交易，以及容量电价补偿机制的完善，储能的 ...

Core Conclusions - The global AI computing competition is intensifying, with xAI planning to enhance its training computing power to 2GW, recommending companies like Dongfang Electric and Sifang Co. for AI data center support [1] - Blue Arrow Aerospace's IPO application has been accepted, indicating a thriving commercial aerospace sector, with recommendations for companies like Goldwind Technology and Maiwei [1] - The opening of JD×Yushu's first national store in Beijing marks a significant step in the commercialization of robotics, with recommended companies including UBTECH and Wuzhou New Spring [1] Group 1: Silver Price and HJT Battery - Silver and polysilicon futures have reached new highs, potentially improving the cost-effectiveness of HJT and BC battery technologies [2] - Recommended stocks in the solar storage sector include Aiko and Foster, with a focus on companies like Dongfang Risen and Dike [2] Group 2: New Energy Installation and Pricing Mechanisms - New energy installations continue to rise, supported by improved electricity pricing mechanisms and transmission channels, with projects like the Shandong Dengzhou Station receiving approval [2] - Recommended companies in the power equipment sector include Pinggao Electric and Shunhua Power, with a focus on TBEA [2] Group 3: Electric Vehicle and Consumer Electronics Demand - The introduction of a new subsidy policy for replacing old vehicles is expected to boost demand for electric vehicles and consumer electronics, with subsidies of up to 15% for certain products [3] - Recommended companies in the electric vehicle sector include CATL and EVE Energy, with a focus on companies benefiting from overseas markets [3] Group 4: Offshore Wind Power Development - Two large offshore wind power projects in China have achieved full capacity grid connection, indicating rapid development in the offshore wind industry [3] - Recommended companies in the wind power sector include Goldwind Technology and Daikin Heavy Industries [3] Group 5: Energy Storage Capacity Compensation Mechanism - Gansu Province has officially released a compensation mechanism for energy storage capacity, set at 330 RMB/kW·year, which is expected to maintain high industry prosperity [4] - Recommended companies in the energy storage sector include Sungrow Power and EVE Energy [4] Group 6: Market Trends and Price Changes - The overall sales of major domestic new energy vehicle companies increased by 15.13% year-on-year in 2025, with a total delivery of 7.42 million vehicles [9] - Prices for lithium salts and nickel have risen, with battery-grade lithium carbonate reaching 118,500 RMB/ton, up 5.90% week-on-week [21][24]

光伏：供给侧改革取得实质性进展，短期需求承压不改多元化增长态势2025年是光伏行业的基本面筑底 之年，供需错配压力出现边际改善，产业链价格企稳回升，公司业绩亏损幅度收敛。展望2026年：需求 端方面，全球光伏新增装机将面临短期压力，中美欧光伏新增市场均有同比下滑压力，新型市场增速较 高但占比仍小，预计全球光伏新增规模持平或略有下滑。随着全球光储平价地区持续增加，中欧美以外 地区光伏装机需求快速启动，全球新增装机GW级以上国家持续增加，其中中东、南亚、非洲地区增速 靠前，多元化增长格局持续演绎；供给端方面，整治"内卷式"竞争工作取得实质性进展，行业新规提高 光伏产能扩产门槛，光伏产品价格基本触底，行业尾部企业逐渐退出，预计2025年行业供需错配情况将 逐渐改善。新技术方面，BC电池技术产业化进展加速，降银新技术将推动非硅成本进一步下降。 风电：招标端高景气向装机端传导，产业链出海持续推进 诚通证券近日发布2026年风光储网行业投资策略：全球储能装机需求保持高增长，AI算力中心配储带 来新增需求2025年全球储能呈现爆发增长态势，中美欧大储需求共振。展望2026年：与电网投资相同， 储能行业是新能源的后周期行业， ...

格隆汇12月31日丨隆基绿能(601012.SH)在互动平台表示，预计到2025年末，公司BC电池产能超过 50GW。公司持续关注资本市场变化情况，已通过回购、增持等方式增强投资者信心，维护市值稳定。 截止目前，公司已使用自有资金以集中竞价交易方式回购公司股份，回购金额约为3亿元。 ...

投 资 策 略 电力设备及新能源行业 超配（维持） 电力设备及新能源行业之光伏电池设备专题报告 暗线潜影织金络，晶硅叠层启玄机 2025 年 12 月 29 日 投资要点： 分析师：刘兴文 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340522050001 电话：0769-22119416 邮箱：liuxingwen@dgzq.com.cn 关键阶段，供需结构失衡与技术快速迭代相互交织，使部分企业陷 入低价无序竞争的困境，多数光伏企业正处于极限经营和普遍亏损 的阶段。光伏行业破解"内卷式"恶性竞争的关键，在于从"价格 战"转向"价值战"，以技术创新驱动产业质变。光伏行业的资本 支出正处于显著收缩的通道中。在当前严峻的经营压力下，资本开 支的锐减意味着未来新增产能将大幅减少，光伏企业主动放缓扩张 步伐并对资本支出进行结构性调整，标志着光伏行业的竞争核心正 从规模扩张的比拼，转向技术、品牌和盈利能力的竞争，实现从"量" 到"质"的战略转型和高质量发展。光伏企业将重心放在能够构建 长期竞争优势的领域，加大对BC电池、钙钛矿等前沿技术的布局力 度，以科技创新为导向的逆周期投资有望通过技术代差摆脱同质化 竞争。在这轮深度调整中，现金 ...

光伏，苦"内卷"久矣！ 过去四年（2021-2024年），在碳中和东风下，从硅料到组件的光伏主产业链各环节，都陷入了一场扩产竞赛。 只可惜，需求没能跟上扩产的步伐，最终致使产品价格大幅下滑。 据中国光伏行业协会最新统计数据，2025年1月至10月，多晶硅产量约111.3万吨（同比下降29.6%）、硅片产量约567GW（同比下降6.7%），均迎来多年来 首次同比下滑。 硅料价格也从2022年高峰时期的超30万元/吨，一路下跌至2025年中期的每吨3.47万元，跌幅接近90%；硅片、电池片、组件等其它环节价格也纷纷跟跌。 12月22日，白银现货价格持续大幅上涨，再创历史新高。同花顺iFind数据显示，伦敦银现价盘中最高触及69.450美元/盎司，年内涨幅超130%；COMEX白 银同步刷新历史新高，年内涨幅突破120%。 在这样的背景下，行业产能供给矛盾依旧严峻，光伏组件终端需求转弱，开工率继续下降。事实上，大多数光伏企业在2024年就由盈转亏，2025年依旧身陷 亏损。另一方面，当下银价飙升又给光伏行业带来了尤为显著的成本压力。 仅前三季度，通威股份、隆基绿能等如下图八家巨头就共亏损了260.68亿元。 那么， ...

Core Insights - The year 2025 marks a pivotal point for China's photovoltaic (PV) industry, transitioning from chaotic competition to rational collaboration, as stated by Wang Bohua, honorary chairman of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association [2] - The fixed electricity price era has ended, leading to a new market-oriented phase for the PV sector, with significant changes in pricing and production dynamics [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The price of polysilicon has rebounded, with futures prices soaring from over 30,000 yuan/ton to above 60,000 yuan/ton, nearly doubling [3] - Major upstream companies like Daqo Energy and Tongwei have reported profitability in Q3, indicating a recovery in the industry [3] - The profitability of 31 key companies in the PV main industry chain has improved, with Q3 losses narrowing to 64.22 billion yuan, a reduction of approximately 46.7% from Q2 [4] Group 2: Sector Challenges - Despite improvements, the industry still faces supply-demand imbalances, particularly in the equipment sector, where many leading companies reported declines in revenue and net profit [5] - The inverter sector shows a mixed performance, with some companies experiencing profit growth while others face declining profits [5] - The auxiliary materials sector is under pressure, with leading companies in quartz crucibles and glass reporting significant losses [5] Group 3: Industry Restructuring - The PV industry is witnessing a dual trend of cross-industry expansion and exits, with companies like Longi Green Energy entering the energy storage market [6] - Several companies have exited the PV sector through asset sales and project terminations, indicating a consolidation trend [6] - The restructuring signals are strengthening, with companies like Jingang Photovoltaic undergoing reorganization to focus on specific technologies [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The competition in PV technology is entering a new phase, with BC technology products rapidly gaining market share, potentially reaching 100GW in production by next year [8] - The price of silicon is expected to regain its central role in the industry, with a projected recovery in silicon prices linked to upstream polysilicon prices [9] - The demand for auxiliary materials is anticipated to weaken further, but supportive policies may help stabilize the market [10]

Group 1: Energy Storage - Domestic energy storage demand is continuously being released, with record-high bidding scale; from January to September 2025, the new energy storage installation capacity reached 81.96 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 61.59% [2] - The cumulative bidding scale for energy storage systems and EPC from January to October this year reached 364.19 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 161%, with independent storage accounting for 58% [2] - In the overseas market, the demand for energy storage is driven by the AIDC in the US, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 85% from 2025 to 2030; Europe is expected to see new energy storage installations reach 118 GWh by 2029, with large storage accounting for 69% [2] Group 2: Photovoltaics - The "anti-involution" policy has improved supply and demand in the photovoltaic industry, leading to a rebound in prices; from the price low in early July to December 11, the cumulative price increases for polysilicon, N-type silicon wafers, TOPCon battery cells, and TOPCon modules were 49%, 40%, 22%, and 2% respectively [3] - BC batteries are expected to achieve mass production by 2026, with significant investments from leading companies; by the end of 2025, domestic BC battery component capacity is expected to exceed 70 GW, with a continuous increase in market share [3] - Perovskite solar cell technology is making breakthroughs, with Longi Green Energy achieving a world record efficiency of 34.85% for silicon-perovskite tandem cells; the industry is transitioning from "technology validation" to "initial mass production" [3] Group 3: Space Photovoltaics - The deployment of space data centers is accelerating, presenting a promising future for space photovoltaics; current mainstream technology is gallium arsenide batteries, but high costs and rigid substrates limit large-scale application [4] - Future mainstream solutions may include P-type HJT batteries and perovskite batteries [4]