业界人士认为，台积电新厂建设及产能规划向来就是浮动的，主要对客户需求及市场状况滚动式调 整，虽提早在美国P2厂生产2纳米，但不至于大幅排挤台湾厂产能。目前2纳米需求热络，其他仅 存的竞争者如三星、Intel、Rapidus等，在良率、产能扩充及生产稳定性上仍是相差一大截，客户 除了台积电别无选择，因此产能扩充势必得更加积极、并非收手。 如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 来 源 ：内容 来自 moneydj 。 晶圆代工龙头台积电2纳米于今年重磅登场，供应链最新传出，台积电规划在位于亚历桑纳州的第 二座晶圆厂(P2)B区提前导入2纳米制程，初期月产能约2万片，以支援当地客户长期且强劲的需 求。 根据台积于7月法说会上揭露消息，第二座晶圆厂的建设已经完成，将采用3纳米制程技术，且量 产时程将提前数季，以支援客户需求。美国第三座晶圆厂的建设也已启动，将采用2纳米与A16制 程技术，同样考虑基于AI相关需求的强劲成长，将加快生产时程；第四座晶圆厂将使用N2与A16 制程，第五与第六座晶圆厂则会采用更先进的技术。 供应链新传出，台积电美国第三座晶圆厂(F21 P2)目前正进行内部无尘室和机电整合工程，并已通 知 ...

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's expansion in the U.S. is showing promising results, with significant profits from its Arizona facility, indicating a successful shift towards American manufacturing in the semiconductor industry [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - TSMC reported a net profit of NT$3,982.7 billion for Q2, with the Arizona plant contributing NT$42.32 billion in net profit, marking its first profit contribution to the parent company [2][4]. - The company's consolidated revenue reached NT$9,337.9 billion, with a net profit growth of 60.7% year-on-year and a gross margin of 58.6%, setting a historical record [4][6]. Production Capacity and Demand - The Arizona P1 plant has a monthly production capacity of approximately 30,000 4nm wafers, fully booked by major clients like Apple and AMD [3][6]. - TSMC's U.S. facilities currently meet only 7% of the U.S. chip demand, highlighting the need for further expansion to satisfy local market requirements [6][8]. Competitive Landscape - TSMC's investment in the U.S. is driven by the need to secure major clients and avoid tariffs, with over 90% of its high-margin orders coming from U.S. customers [4][6]. - The competition is intensifying, as companies like Samsung are also expanding their semiconductor manufacturing capabilities in the U.S. [6][8]. Advanced Packaging and AI Demand - The demand for advanced packaging, particularly CoWoS technology, is surging due to the rise of AI applications, leading to capacity constraints across Taiwan's packaging facilities [9][10]. - TSMC's advanced packaging plant in Chiayi is facing delays, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance in the market [10][11].

Summary of Semiconductor Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The semiconductor manufacturing industry is experiencing structural differentiation, with strong demand related to AI, particularly with the upward revision of ETIC terminal shipments, leading to increased order expectations for companies like TSMC [2][3] - TSMC's revenue for Q3 is expected to be between $31.8 billion and $33 billion, with a full-year revenue growth forecast of approximately 30% [2][8] - UMC's Q3 capacity utilization is around 75%, with revenue guidance indicating low single-digit growth driven by shipment volume [1][2] - Domestic manufacturers like SMIC are expected to maintain relatively full capacity until the end of the year, but a slight decline is anticipated in Q4 [1][2] Key Points on TSMC - TSMC's capital expenditure is maintained at a high level, projected between $38 billion and $42 billion [2] - The company plans to achieve mass production of 2nm technology in the second half of the year, with HPC customer new products migrating to the N3 platform next year [1][2] - TSMC's Q2 revenue reached $30.07 billion, a 17.8% quarter-over-quarter increase, driven by strong AI revenue [8] UMC and Domestic Manufacturers - UMC's revenue guidance is driven by stable pricing and increased shipment volume, despite historical cyclical comparisons showing a gap [2][3] - SMIC is expected to face increased ASP and UTR pressures next year, with potential risks in C-end and B-end applications [1][3] Packaging and Testing Industry - The packaging and testing industry is seeing decent revenue growth, benefiting from industry recovery, although it is less correlated with AI [1][4] - Companies like ASE and Amkor are experiencing stable UTR guidance, but capacity utilization remains low [4][5] AMD's Performance - AMD has shown strong performance in consumer chips and the Ryzen series, leading to upward revisions in expectations, positively impacting Tongfu Microelectronics [6][8] Equipment Industry Outlook - The equipment industry is facing challenges, with a pessimistic outlook for global WFE (Wafer Fab Equipment) in 2026 [7][19] - ASML's DUV orders are strong, particularly from emerging logic customers in China, despite EUV orders falling short of expectations [7][21] - Lam Research has raised its 2026 WFE guidance to $105 billion, reflecting increased spending in China [7][20] Challenges and Opportunities in Storage - The storage industry faces uncertainty, particularly with Samsung's validation process impacting capital expenditure outlook [10] - Chinese DRAM customers are expected to improve yield rates, leading to increased domestic production certainty [10] Future Trends in Advanced Processes - The focus is on the 18A and upcoming 14A nodes, with Intel concentrating on advanced process nodes and potentially halting external foundry projects [11][12] - TSMC's dominance in advanced processes remains unthreatened, with major design clients relying on TSMC for production [11][12] Conclusion - The semiconductor industry is navigating a complex landscape with varying demand across segments, with AI-related growth driving some companies while others face challenges in mature processes and equipment supply [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][19][20][21][22]

Group 1 - The global pure semiconductor foundry industry revenue is expected to grow by 17% year-on-year in 2025, exceeding $165 billion, up from $105 billion in 2021, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12% from 2021 to 2025 [1][4] - Advanced nodes such as 3nm and 5/4nm are key drivers of revenue growth, with 3nm node revenue projected to increase by over 600% to around $30 billion by 2025, while 5/4nm node revenue is expected to exceed $40 billion [1][4] - Advanced nodes, including 7nm, are anticipated to contribute over half of the total revenue for pure foundries by 2025, highlighting the industry's focus on cutting-edge technology to support high-end AI smartphones and HPC solutions [1][4] Group 2 - The 2nm process is expected to account for only 1% of total revenue in 2025, but with TSMC's new capacity in Taiwan, it is projected to expand rapidly, potentially exceeding 10% of total revenue by 2027 [3] - The 20-12nm range is expected to remain stable, contributing 7% to total revenue, as some chip applications migrate from mature nodes to advanced nodes [4] - The share of mature nodes, such as 28nm and above, is projected to decline from 54% in 2021 to 36% in 2025, indicating a gradual phase-out of traditional technologies, although revenue is expected to remain stable [4]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC has secured a significant client for its 2nm process, with Intel reportedly commissioning the Nova Lake-S desktop processor for production, expected to launch in Q3 2026, enhancing TSMC's order volume for advanced processes [1][2]. Group 1: TSMC and Intel Collaboration - Intel's Nova Lake-S processor is set to utilize TSMC's 2nm process, marking the first time Intel will adopt this technology for its processors [2]. - The collaboration between Intel and TSMC is characterized as both competitive and cooperative, with Intel previously outsourcing other processor lines to TSMC [2][3]. - The Nova Lake-S processor will include at least one wafer block manufactured using TSMC's 2nm process, providing flexibility and mitigating potential delays from Intel's own manufacturing limitations [2]. Group 2: Nova Lake Processor Specifications - The Nova Lake series will feature multiple versions for desktop and laptop applications, with the Nova Lake-S expected to have up to 52 cores, including 16 performance cores and 32 efficiency cores [3]. - The processor will integrate an advanced memory controller supporting speeds of up to 8,800 MT/s, showcasing its high-performance capabilities [3]. - GPU functionalities will be handled by the Xe3 Celestial architecture, while media decoding and display tasks will be managed by the Xe4 Druid architecture, highlighting the diverse functionalities of the Nova Lake series [3].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's upcoming earnings call on Thursday is highly anticipated, with foreign investors focusing on five key topics: the impact of the New Taiwan Dollar appreciation on operations, potential changes in capital expenditures for the year, the status of advanced process and packaging capacity, the outlook for artificial intelligence (AI), and the effects of the "Inflation Reduction Act" [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Impact - The appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar is a major concern for investors, particularly regarding its impact on TSMC's fundamentals. Morgan Stanley estimates that a 10% appreciation in Q2 will reduce TSMC's gross margin by over 3%, lowering the expected gross margin for the second half of the year from 58%-59% to 55%-56% [1]. - Morgan Stanley has also revised TSMC's earnings per share (EPS) estimates down by 6% and 12% for this year and next, resulting in new EPS figures of NT$55.01 and NT$64.61, respectively [1]. Group 2: Capital Expenditures - Goldman Sachs anticipates no major surprises in TSMC's earnings call regarding capital expenditures, maintaining a target range of USD 38 billion to 42 billion for the year and a projected revenue growth of 28.7% [2]. - The company is expected to maintain its USD revenue growth target of 20% year-over-year [2]. Group 3: Advanced Process and AI Outlook - In terms of advanced processes, Goldman Sachs predicts that TSMC's pricing for processes below 5nm will increase by 3% annually, while CoWoS packaging prices will rise by 5%. The demand for 2nm processes in smartphones may exceed expectations, driving growth for TSMC next year [2]. - Citigroup forecasts that GPUs will continue to dominate the AI market, with ASICs also showing growth. Starting in the second half of 2026, AI chips are expected to transition to 3nm processes, leading to significant increases in average selling prices and enhanced computing power [2]. - JPMorgan notes that TSMC's fundamental demand momentum is more optimistic compared to three months ago, driven by strong AI demand and limited reductions in Apple orders, projecting a 29% year-over-year revenue growth for TSMC this year [2]. Group 4: Inflation Reduction Act - Morgan Stanley believes that the "Inflation Reduction Act" will increase semiconductor tax credits from 25% to 35%, benefiting TSMC, which qualifies for this incentive. Additionally, TSMC's commitment to investing in U.S. fabs may enhance its chances of obtaining tariff exemptions, thereby alleviating profit pressures from U.S. expansion [3].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's employee bonuses and dividends for 2024 have reached a record high, reflecting strong revenue and profit growth from the previous year, with an average payout of over NT$200 million per employee [1][2]. Group 1: Employee Compensation - TSMC will distribute a total of NT$140.59 billion in employee performance bonuses and dividends for 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of over 40% [1][2]. - The average annual bonus per employee is NT$200.84 million, which represents a year-on-year increase of NT$51.32 million, or approximately 34.32% [2]. - Employees with six years of service can expect bonuses as high as NT$1.8 million, while those with five years and top performance ratings can receive around NT$1.16 million [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - TSMC's total revenue for 2024 is projected to reach NT$2.8943 trillion, with a net profit of NT$1.1732 trillion, both figures representing new highs [1]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be NT$45.25, showcasing TSMC's strong competitive position in the semiconductor industry [1]. Group 3: Industry Context - The global semiconductor industry is facing challenges, with competitors like Samsung and Intel experiencing delays and operational difficulties in their advanced process technologies [4][5]. - TSMC maintains its leadership in advanced process technology, with plans to mass-produce 2nm processes in the second half of this year and A16 processes by the second half of 2026 [5]. - The demand for high-end processes is expected to rise due to the growing need for AI servers, further solidifying TSMC's position as a leading foundry [5].

Core Viewpoint - Intel's new CEO, Pat Gelsinger, is considering a significant shift in its wafer foundry strategy to attract major clients, potentially prioritizing the development of the next-generation 14A process over the previously planned Intel 18A process [1][2]. Group 1: Strategy and Development - Intel may halt marketing the 18A process to new clients as early as July, with a final decision possibly delayed until fall due to the complexity and financial implications involved [1]. - The company is currently in the risk production phase for the Intel 18A process, which is expected to reach mass production this year, but there are indications that resources may be redirected towards the 14A process [1][2]. - The 14A process is viewed as having the potential to surpass TSMC's technology in certain aspects, aiming to attract major clients like Apple and Nvidia, who currently rely on TSMC for their chip production [1]. Group 2: Financial Implications - If Intel decides to abandon the 18A and 18A-P processes, it may incur significant write-downs, potentially amounting to hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars [2]. - Intel's primary customers for the 18A process have been internal, with plans to produce the Panther Lake laptop chips, which are touted as the most advanced processors designed and manufactured in the U.S. [2]. Group 3: Client Commitments and Market Position - Intel has made commitments to Amazon and Microsoft to produce a limited quantity of chips using the 18A process, with set delivery timelines [2][3]. - TSMC has highlighted its advancements in 2nm and A16 process technologies, indicating a competitive edge in energy-efficient computing, with most innovators collaborating with TSMC [3].

Group 1 - TSMC is set to begin production of its 2nm process, with total costs reaching $725 million and wafer foundry prices soaring to $30,000 per wafer. The upcoming 1.4nm process is expected to cost $45,000 per wafer [1] - Vivo's new foldable smartphone, the X Fold5, is scheduled for release in late June, aiming to surpass its predecessor's weight record of 219g and become the world's first foldable phone with full waterproofing [1] - The global smartphone market has seen a decline in growth for three consecutive quarters, with Q1 2025 showing only a 0.2% increase in shipments, totaling 296.9 million units. Samsung leads with 60.5 million units shipped, followed by Apple with 55 million and Xiaomi with 41.8 million [1] Group 2 - Zhikong Jiyuan Robotics has launched a series of coating robots designed for "three high materials" (high viscosity, high curing speed, high adhesion). These robots can enhance construction efficiency by 300%, reduce material waste by over 25%, and minimize high-risk operations by 90% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Major technology companies like Apple, MediaTek, and Qualcomm are targeting TSMC's 2nm process, which has begun accepting orders at a cost of $30,000 per wafer, presenting a significant challenge for the next generation of process nodes. The subsequent 1.4nm "A" process is expected to be even more expensive, with costs potentially reaching $45,000 per wafer, a 50% increase compared to the 2nm node [1][3][12]. Summary by Sections 1.4nm Process Cost and Features - TSMC's A14 (1.4nm) manufacturing technology promises significant improvements in performance, power consumption, and transistor density compared to the N2 (2nm) process. The A14 process is expected to cost up to $45,000 per wafer, which is a 50% increase from the 2nm node [3][5]. - The A14 process will utilize TSMC's second-generation GAA (Gate-All-Around) nanosheet transistors and NanoFlex Pro technology, which allows for greater design flexibility. It is projected to achieve a 10-15% speed improvement, a 25-30% reduction in power consumption, and a logic density increase of approximately 1.23 times compared to the N2 process [5][7]. Potential Customers for 1.4nm Process - TSMC's top customers, including Nvidia, Apple, MediaTek, Intel, Qualcomm, and Broadcom, are likely to adopt the 1.4nm process. Nvidia is expected to significantly increase its contribution to TSMC's revenue, projected to rise from 5-10% in 2023 to over 20% by 2025 [8][9]. - Apple is anticipated to place orders worth approximately NT$1 trillion (around $33 billion) for 2nm technology by 2025, which could increase its share of TSMC's revenue significantly [9][10]. Future Cost Trends - The costs of wafers are expected to continue rising, with the 1.4nm process not utilizing expensive High NA EUV lithography technology, indicating potential for further price increases in future nodes [12][13]. - Analysis suggests that if the light source power does not increase, the overall lithography costs for future nodes could rise by up to 20% compared to the current 3nm baseline [14][16]. - The semiconductor industry is observing rising costs in EDA and IP, which may contribute to the overall increase in chip production costs in the future [17].