公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 来 源 ： 内容 编译自 businesskorea 。 台积电在竹科宝山建2座2纳米厂、高雄楠梓规划5座厂，本季已开始量产二纳米，公司先前法说会预 期2纳米需求强劲，明年产能将快速成长，2纳米家族将成为公司大规模且长期贡献营运的制程。 台积电今年3月加码投资美国千亿美元，投资总额达1650亿美元，目前正加速建厂中，台积电增加美 国投资建厂，很多国人担心将影响在台湾的投资减少？台积电董事长暨总裁魏哲家当时指出"做AI的 客户全部来找我们"，预计产能仍不够，不仅不会影响台湾，还要请政府帮忙找地盖厂。 如今，供应链传出台积电将加码在南台湾扩增2纳米厂，显示以公司有订单才扩产的谨慎投资来看， AI需求先进制程仍旺，该公司也以实际投资行动对外证明在台续投资先进制程。业界指出，三星虽宣 称明年将在美国以2纳米制程为特斯拉生产AI6芯片，还有其他客户下单；英特尔也号称推出18A制 程，但对国际客户而言，从台积电换到别家先进制程的供应商，风险成本太高，良率与生产稳定性都 是问题，这也是台积电先进制程供不应求的主因。 作为领先者，台积电正在做出新的规划。据台媒引述半导体供应链透 ...

截至目前，台积电和英特尔方面尚未作出回应。 "没有台积电，台湾啥也不是" 据公开资料，罗唯仁现年75岁，拥有美国加州大学柏克莱分校固态物理与表面化学博士学位，曾在英特 尔任职，后于2004年加入台积电。在他的领导下，台积电技术团队共取得超过1500项专利。他被认为是 台积电在先进制程技术上能保持全球领先的重要推手。 料图 【文/观察者网 齐倩】 近日，中国台湾地区半导体行业爆出惊天大瓜！ 据"联合新闻网""中视新闻网"等台媒11月18日报道，有消息传出，台积电前企业策略发展资深副总经理 罗唯仁（美国籍）在今年7月底退休，10月底已赴英特尔担任研发副总。 还有消息称，罗唯仁在离职前，疑似利用其高级主管身份，要求团队成员向他进行多场技术简报，同时 带走二十多箱的机密复制文本与手写资料，涉及2纳米与A14制程等台积电先进制程。 台媒称，罗唯仁曾是台积电最神秘的老臣，过去备受张忠谋器重。如今爆出"涉及窃取机密资料"，引发 岛内高度关注。但与此同时，多名媒体人和行业人士直呼"诡异"，其中必有猫腻。有媒体人指出，罗唯 仁有可能在台积电和民进党当局的"默许"下赴美，"奉旨卖台"。 罗唯仁资 罗唯仁最受外界称道的，是他协助台 ...

如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 推荐阅读 台积电位于亚利桑那州的第二座晶圆厂预定在2026 年第二季完成装机，之后将全面进入建置与设 备调校阶段。由于此批新产能将采用EUV 与更高规格的厂务设施，折旧负担势必再往上叠加，短 期财报仍难看到明显改善。 法人指出，美国基地真正的关键并不在眼前的获利数字，而是在于3 纳米、2 纳米等先进制程是否 能顺利落地并拉升产能利用率。台积电目前规划2027 年启动美国3 纳米量产，同时针对包含GAA 与Backside Power 在内的2 纳米技术进行可行性评估。一旦先进节点成功导入，美国厂将能在全 球先进制程战略布局中扮演更具重量的角色。 随着先进封装需求升高，美国在地供应链不足的情况也愈加明显。多家台系材料与设备厂已因应台 积电的扩建进度陆续投入美国专案。业者表示，美国封测作业的成本结构更高、交期压力也更大， 因此能否稳定取得台系供应链的支援，将直接左右美国基地未来先进封装的扩张速度。 从整体市场来看，AI 持续推升先进制程满载，3 纳米与2 纳米仍处于长期供不应求；反观成熟制 程则因产能过剩而面临更强的降价压力。加上中国晶圆厂积极以价格抢市占，使成熟制程的报 ...

Core Viewpoint - TSMC is expected to see significant growth in AI-related revenue, with projections indicating a potential increase to over $40 billion next year, driven by strong demand from major clients like Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom [2]. Group 1: TSMC's AI Revenue Growth - TSMC's AI-related revenue is anticipated to grow exponentially, with expectations of surpassing $400 million next year and continuing to rise, potentially exceeding $1 billion in USD revenue by 2026 [2]. - The company has a clear visibility of orders extending to 2028, indicating strong demand for its advanced process technologies [2]. Group 2: Advanced Process Technology - TSMC's advanced 2nm process is expected to grow rapidly, driven by applications in smartphones, high-performance computing, and AI [2]. - The company has already begun mass production of its 2nm technology, which is projected to significantly contribute to its revenue by 2026 [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Challenges - Despite the strong demand for chips, TSMC is cautious about increasing production capacity due to past experiences with semiconductor market cycles, which often lead to overcapacity [3]. - The cost of building advanced fabs is high, approximately $20 billion, and takes 3-4 years to complete, which adds to TSMC's cautious approach [3]. Group 4: Industry Trends - The wafer foundry industry is projected to grow by about 20% by 2026, with advanced processes benefiting from high-performance computing (HPC) demand, expected to lead the market with a 31% annual growth rate [5][6]. - The semiconductor landscape is shifting significantly due to strong AI demand, leading to a more pronounced monopoly among leading semiconductor manufacturers [6].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's CEO announced that the 2nm process is expected to achieve mass production in the latter part of this quarter, while the A16 chip is anticipated to enter mass production in the second half of next year [1] Group 1 - TSMC is progressing towards the mass production of its 2nm process technology [1] - The A16 chip is projected to begin mass production in the second half of next year [1]

Group 1 - TSMC will hold a conference on October 16, with strong demand for its 2nm capacity, leading major clients like Apple, AMD, Qualcomm, and MediaTek to fully book the capacity for next year [2][3] - TSMC's 2nm production facilities in Hsinchu and Kaohsiung are in trial production, with a yield rate nearing 70%, expected to enter mass production by the end of the year [2] - The estimated monthly production capacity for TSMC's 2nm process could reach 40,000 wafers by the end of the year, potentially increasing to nearly 100,000 wafers by the end of next year [2][3] Group 2 - TSMC's advanced packaging capacity is also expected to rise, with overall monthly capacity projected to exceed 150,000 wafers next year due to increased demand from major clients [3] - Capital expenditures for TSMC are anticipated to exceed this year's $38 billion to $42 billion, reaching new historical highs by 2026 [3] Group 3 - The global spending on 300mm wafer fab equipment is projected to reach $374 billion from 2026 to 2028, with a significant increase in investment driven by AI chip demand and regional supply chain localization [5] - In 2025, global spending on 300mm wafer fab equipment is expected to surpass $100 billion for the first time, with a growth rate of 7% [5] Group 4 - The memory sector is projected to invest $136 billion over three years, marking the beginning of a new growth cycle, with DRAM and 3D NAND investments expected to exceed $79 billion and $56 billion, respectively [6][7] - The demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is expected to rise significantly due to AI training and inference needs [7] Group 5 - China is expected to lead global 300mm equipment spending with an investment of $94 billion from 2026 to 2028, followed by South Korea at $86 billion and Taiwan at $75 billion [8]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America has raised its earnings per share forecast for TSMC for the fiscal years 2026 and 2027 by 8% and 9% respectively, primarily due to improved pricing outlook, reiterating a "Buy" rating and increasing the target price from $290 to $330 [1] Financial Projections - The bank expects TSMC's revenue for the fiscal year 2026 to grow by 24% year-on-year [1] - The revenue contribution from the 2nm process in 2026 is projected to reach 9% [1] Market Demand - There is potential for further upside if demand from smartphone and HPC (High-Performance Computing) customers is stronger than anticipated [1]

Core Insights - TSMC is rapidly advancing its 2nm production capabilities, with Kaohsiung set to become a key production hub for the 2nm family, including the introduction of the A16 process in 2024 [3][4][5] - The total investment in the Kaohsiung facility is expected to exceed $50 billion, marking a significant milestone in semiconductor manufacturing [3][4] - The establishment of five fabs (P1 to P5) is projected to create approximately 7,000 high-tech jobs and 20,000 construction jobs, significantly boosting the local economy [3][4][5] Investment and Production Plans - The P1 fab is set to begin mass production of 2nm wafers by the end of this year, while the P2 fab is currently in the equipment installation phase, aiming for mass production in Q2 2024 [3][5] - The P3 fab is expected to start construction in October 2024, with all five fabs projected to be operational by Q4 2027, establishing a leading global 2nm cluster [5] - TSMC's investment in Kaohsiung is anticipated to surpass NT$1.5 trillion, setting a new record for corporate investment in the region [3][4] Technological Advancements - The A16 process will enhance performance and power efficiency, incorporating a new chip architecture that is crucial for AI and high-performance computing [4][5] - The A14 process is scheduled for mass production in 2028, with the main production base located in Taichung, indicating a strong market demand for AI and high-efficiency computing [4][5] Economic Impact - The development of the Nanzih Science Park, which includes the P1 and P2 fabs, is expected to create over 10,000 jobs when considering construction workers and downstream contractors [4] - The local government is committed to optimizing the investment environment to support TSMC's operations and enhance the semiconductor ecosystem in southern Taiwan [5]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a volatile upward trend, with the bond market continuing to adjust and industrial commodity futures showing widespread gains [1] Stock Market Analysis - The A-share market showed overall strength, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the 3850-point mark, closing up 0.83%. The Shenzhen Component rose by 1.80%, the ChiNext Index by 2.28%, and the STAR Market 50 Index by 3.49%, all reaching new phase highs. Over 80% of the 4457 stocks in the market rose, with a total trading volume of 2.35 trillion yuan, a decrease of approximately 0.17 trillion yuan from the previous day [2] - The technology sector led the market, reinforcing its mainline position. The market opened slightly lower but quickly moved upward, driven by strong demand in the technology industry, particularly after TSMC announced a 50% price increase for its 2nm process compared to the 3nm process. Semiconductor, photovoltaic equipment, and gaming sectors outperformed traditional sectors like banking and coal [2][5] - The "9.24" policy anniversary effect continued to release, with the ChiNext Index showing a cumulative increase of nearly 100% over the past year and the STAR Market 50 Index up nearly 120%, significantly outperforming other broad-based indices [2] Bond Market Analysis - The government bond futures market continued to adjust, with all contracts closing lower. The 30-year contract fell by 0.58%, reaching a six-month low, while the 10-year contract showed weak support [6] - The central bank's net withdrawal and increased demand at the quarter-end led to a rise in short-term interest rates. The overnight Shibor rate was reported at 1.434%, up by 2.1 basis points. The central bank conducted a 401.5 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, maintaining a rate of 1.40% [6][7] - Short-term pressures coexist with medium- to long-term allocation needs, as the bond market faces short-term challenges while still having room for monetary policy easing in the medium to long term [7] Commodity Market Analysis - The domestic commodity futures market showed a "more up than down" trend, with energy, chemicals, and black building materials leading the gains. The main contract for glass rose over 4%, and fuel oil increased by more than 3% [8] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other departments, issued a "Stabilization Growth Work Plan for the Building Materials Industry (2025-2026)", which is expected to boost market expectations for related products [8] - Precious metals continued to show strong fluctuations, supported by expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy and geopolitical risks, with London gold prices maintaining around 3770 USD per ounce [10] Trading Hotspots - Recent popular varieties include non-ferrous metals, artificial intelligence, domestic chips, and robots, driven by factors such as central bank purchases, accelerated capital expenditures by tech giants, and domestic technological breakthroughs [11] - The market is expected to shift from a "technology-led" to a "balanced allocation" approach, with strong logic in sub-sectors of technology still performing well [12]

Group 1 - Alibaba's CEO predicts that achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is a certainty, with the ultimate goal being the development of Super Artificial Intelligence (ASI) [2] - Alibaba announced a series of initiatives to advance AI infrastructure, including an investment of 380 billion in AI infrastructure and the launch of new large model technology products [2] - The Chinese government, through eight departments, issued guidelines to promote digital consumption, focusing on expanding supply and enhancing the digital consumption ecosystem [3] Group 2 - The balance of margin financing in the A-share market has surpassed 2.4 trillion, with several brokerages increasing their credit business limits to facilitate more capital [4][5] - The U.S. government has initiated a Section 232 investigation into the import of robots, industrial machinery, and medical devices, potentially leading to new tariffs [6] - A new policy financial tool is expected to be established with an initial scale of 500 billion, aimed at supporting private enterprises and various sectors [7] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 600 billion MLF operation to maintain liquidity, marking the seventh consecutive month of increased liquidity measures [8] - TSMC's stock surged amid rumors of price increases for its 3nm and 2nm process nodes, although the company refrained from commenting on these speculations [9] - Local governments are competing for tourism and consumption flow ahead of the National Day holiday, planning over 25,000 cultural and tourism activities [10] Group 4 - The options market in China has reached a historical high, with a daily average open interest increase of 207% compared to 2022 [11] - Intel is seeking investment from Apple as part of its business revival strategy, although discussions are still in the early stages [13] - A significant acquisition announcement was made by Zhiyuan Robotics, which plans to acquire approximately 149 million shares of a company at a price of 7.78 per share [14] Group 5 - Several listed companies have disclosed pre-bid information for projects with the State Grid, indicating a strong pipeline of orders [15] - Yushun Technology's founder announced that humanoid robots will be capable of performing tasks by next year, coinciding with advancements in global robotics technology [16] - The A-share market has shown signs of volatility, but analysts believe the long-term upward trend remains intact, with opportunities arising from market adjustments [20][21]