如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 晶圆代工龙头台积电先进制程维持高产能利用率，其中3纳米制程持续供不应求。芯片业者透露， 台积电今年除调高3纳米报价外，已暂时停止3纳米新案Kick-off（启动）。半导体业者分析，主因 在于订单满载、现有产能已难以负荷，短期内扩产速度亦难以追上客户需求涌入。 半导体业者透露，GAAFET制程将晶圆制造由平面雕刻升级为立体建构，制程难度呈倍数提升， 至少须克服硅／锗交替叠层外延成长、高深宽比蚀刻，以及原子级ALD闸极包覆等关键难关；其 中，ALD需在悬空结构四周形成均匀、无缺陷的高介电层与金属闸极，对沉积一致性提出近乎极 限的要求。 （来源 ： 工商时报 ） 点这里加关注，锁定更多原创内容 *免责声明：文章内容系作者个人观点，半导体芯闻转载仅为了传达一种不同的观点，不代表半导体芯闻对该 观点赞同或支持，如果有任何异议，欢迎联系我们。 推荐阅读 10万亿，投向半导体 芯片巨头，市值大跌 黄仁勋：HBM是个技术奇迹 Jim Keller：RISC-V一定会胜出 喜欢我们的内容就点 "在看 " 分享给小伙伴哦~ 业界进一步指出，台积电此举亦带有策略性考量，借此引导客户将新产品 ...

12月29日，台积电官网"逻辑制程"页面显示，其2纳米 (N2) 制程已如期于2025年第四季开始量产。 此外，台积电近期已对部分客户透露，预计自2026年起针对2纳米与3纳米等先进制程陆续进行报价调 整，首波调整预期于2026年元旦起实施；市场预测调幅落在3%至10%区间，实际比例则视客户合约内 容与投片量而定。 受良品率低下影响，包括苹果和英伟达在内的多家大型客户已纷纷转向台积电，导致三星的代工部门陷 入亏损。韩媒《Sedaily》透露称，自2022年以来，三星的代工部门一直陷入亏损，预估该部门每季度亏 损1万亿至2万亿韩元。 针对有关消息，台积电表示不予评论。 据台积电官网介绍，其2纳米制程采用第一代纳米片Nanosheet (GAA) 晶体管技术，提供全制程节点的 性能及功耗进步，将成为业界在密度和能源效率上最为先进的半导体技术。 有韩媒近日爆料称，受代工涨价、产能爆满的影响，超威半导体（AMD）正计划转向三星代工芯片。 目前，AMD方面正在评估三星的2纳米制程能否符合其要求。 作为台积电在代工领域的竞争对手，三星已于12月19日正式推出了首款采用2纳米制程工艺的 SoC"Exynos 2600"，由 ...

Core Viewpoint - The competition in the semiconductor foundry market is intensifying as companies like Samsung and Intel challenge TSMC's dominance in 2nm technology, with significant investments and advancements in production capabilities being reported [1][2][3]. Group 1: TSMC's Expansion Plans - TSMC is planning to invest in three additional 2nm fabs in Taiwan due to surging demand for AI chips, with an estimated total investment of NT$900 billion (approximately US$30 billion) [1][2]. - The company has already begun mass production of 2nm chips and anticipates rapid growth in capacity, with the 2nm family expected to significantly contribute to its operations [2][3]. - TSMC's chairman emphasized that the demand for advanced processes driven by AI customers exceeds current production capacity by three times [3]. Group 2: Intel's Progress - Intel announced a monthly improvement of 7% in the yield of its 18A process, which has been ongoing for 7-8 months, positioning it to mass-produce the Panther Lake processor without increasing costs [5][6]. - The company is set to unveil its first product based on the 18A process at CES 2026, indicating strong confidence in its technology [6]. - Intel has received substantial support from Nvidia and the U.S. government, which has acquired a 10% stake in the company, aiding its recovery efforts [6]. Group 3: Samsung's Developments - Samsung's 2nm process yield has reportedly improved to 55-60%, with plans to double its production capacity by the end of next year [8][9]. - The company aims to achieve profitability within two years by enhancing its 2nm process yield and establishing long-term relationships with lucrative clients [9]. - Samsung's first 2nm SoC, the Exynos 2600, is expected to validate its advanced manufacturing capabilities, particularly in the challenging sub-10nm processes [8][9]. Group 4: Rapidus' Ambitions - Rapidus, backed by the Japanese government, plans to invest ¥100 billion (approximately US$700 million) to develop 2nm technology, with a goal of mass production by the second half of the 2027 fiscal year [10][11]. - The company aims to achieve positive cash flow by 2029 and is collaborating with major partners like IBM to enhance its technological capabilities [11][12]. - Rapidus is targeting a significant market gap in the 2nm semiconductor supply, with plans to focus on custom semiconductors for AI data centers and expand into automotive and robotics sectors [12].

Core Viewpoint - The recent news regarding the alleged theft of confidential information by former TSMC executive Luo Wei-ren, who has joined Intel, has raised significant concerns within Taiwan's semiconductor industry and beyond, highlighting potential risks to TSMC's competitive edge and the stability of the global semiconductor market [1][7][15]. Group 1: Allegations and Background - Luo Wei-ren, a former senior vice president at TSMC, reportedly retired in July and joined Intel in October, raising suspicions of potential data theft involving over 20 boxes of confidential documents related to TSMC's advanced processes, including 2nm technology [1][6]. - Luo is recognized for his pivotal role in TSMC's technological advancements, having led the team that achieved over 1500 patents and successfully navigated the challenges of 10nm technology through the "Night Hawk Plan" [3][5]. - The incident has sparked outrage and concern among the public and industry experts, with many questioning the implications for Taiwan's semiconductor industry, which is crucial to the region's economy [7][15]. Group 2: Industry Reactions and Implications - The Taiwanese government and TSMC have been slow to respond to the allegations, with some analysts suggesting that there may be deeper issues at play, including potential complicity from TSMC's management [10][11]. - Concerns have been raised about the impact of this incident on TSMC's competitive position, especially in light of increasing pressure from the U.S. government to bring semiconductor manufacturing back to the U.S. [7][9]. - The Taiwanese authorities have downplayed the incident's significance, asserting that TSMC's long-standing industry position cannot be easily undermined by the actions of a single individual [15].

Group 1 - TSMC's Q3 financial report indicates that its U.S. subsidiary earned only approximately NT$40 million in a single quarter, a significant drop from NT$4.232 billion in the previous quarter, highlighting the substantial costs associated with establishing operations in the U.S. [2] - The high operational expenses in the U.S. are attributed to the underdeveloped supply chain, technical talent training, and equipment maintenance compared to Taiwan and Japan, compounded by rising costs for expatriate engineering teams and facility setup [2] - TSMC's second wafer fab in Arizona is expected to complete equipment installation by Q2 2026, leading to increased depreciation burdens, making short-term financial improvements unlikely [2] Group 2 - The key to TSMC's U.S. operations lies not in immediate profit figures but in the successful implementation of advanced processes like 3nm and 2nm, which are crucial for increasing capacity utilization [2] - The demand for advanced packaging is rising, revealing a growing inadequacy in the local supply chain in the U.S., with several Taiwanese material and equipment manufacturers responding to TSMC's expansion by investing in U.S. projects [3] - The overall market is seeing sustained demand for advanced processes driven by AI, with 3nm and 2nm technologies remaining in long-term short supply, while mature processes face pricing pressures due to oversupply and competition from Chinese foundries [3]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC is expected to see significant growth in AI-related revenue, with projections indicating a potential increase to over $40 billion next year, driven by strong demand from major clients like Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom [2]. Group 1: TSMC's AI Revenue Growth - TSMC's AI-related revenue is anticipated to grow exponentially, with expectations of surpassing $400 million next year and continuing to rise, potentially exceeding $1 billion in USD revenue by 2026 [2]. - The company has a clear visibility of orders extending to 2028, indicating strong demand for its advanced process technologies [2]. Group 2: Advanced Process Technology - TSMC's advanced 2nm process is expected to grow rapidly, driven by applications in smartphones, high-performance computing, and AI [2]. - The company has already begun mass production of its 2nm technology, which is projected to significantly contribute to its revenue by 2026 [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Challenges - Despite the strong demand for chips, TSMC is cautious about increasing production capacity due to past experiences with semiconductor market cycles, which often lead to overcapacity [3]. - The cost of building advanced fabs is high, approximately $20 billion, and takes 3-4 years to complete, which adds to TSMC's cautious approach [3]. Group 4: Industry Trends - The wafer foundry industry is projected to grow by about 20% by 2026, with advanced processes benefiting from high-performance computing (HPC) demand, expected to lead the market with a 31% annual growth rate [5][6]. - The semiconductor landscape is shifting significantly due to strong AI demand, leading to a more pronounced monopoly among leading semiconductor manufacturers [6].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's CEO announced that the 2nm process is expected to achieve mass production in the latter part of this quarter, while the A16 chip is anticipated to enter mass production in the second half of next year [1] Group 1 - TSMC is progressing towards the mass production of its 2nm process technology [1] - The A16 chip is projected to begin mass production in the second half of next year [1]

Group 1 - TSMC will hold a conference on October 16, with strong demand for its 2nm capacity, leading major clients like Apple, AMD, Qualcomm, and MediaTek to fully book the capacity for next year [2][3] - TSMC's 2nm production facilities in Hsinchu and Kaohsiung are in trial production, with a yield rate nearing 70%, expected to enter mass production by the end of the year [2] - The estimated monthly production capacity for TSMC's 2nm process could reach 40,000 wafers by the end of the year, potentially increasing to nearly 100,000 wafers by the end of next year [2][3] Group 2 - TSMC's advanced packaging capacity is also expected to rise, with overall monthly capacity projected to exceed 150,000 wafers next year due to increased demand from major clients [3] - Capital expenditures for TSMC are anticipated to exceed this year's $38 billion to $42 billion, reaching new historical highs by 2026 [3] Group 3 - The global spending on 300mm wafer fab equipment is projected to reach $374 billion from 2026 to 2028, with a significant increase in investment driven by AI chip demand and regional supply chain localization [5] - In 2025, global spending on 300mm wafer fab equipment is expected to surpass $100 billion for the first time, with a growth rate of 7% [5] Group 4 - The memory sector is projected to invest $136 billion over three years, marking the beginning of a new growth cycle, with DRAM and 3D NAND investments expected to exceed $79 billion and $56 billion, respectively [6][7] - The demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is expected to rise significantly due to AI training and inference needs [7] Group 5 - China is expected to lead global 300mm equipment spending with an investment of $94 billion from 2026 to 2028, followed by South Korea at $86 billion and Taiwan at $75 billion [8]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America has raised its earnings per share forecast for TSMC for the fiscal years 2026 and 2027 by 8% and 9% respectively, primarily due to improved pricing outlook, reiterating a "Buy" rating and increasing the target price from $290 to $330 [1] Financial Projections - The bank expects TSMC's revenue for the fiscal year 2026 to grow by 24% year-on-year [1] - The revenue contribution from the 2nm process in 2026 is projected to reach 9% [1] Market Demand - There is potential for further upside if demand from smartphone and HPC (High-Performance Computing) customers is stronger than anticipated [1]

Core Insights - TSMC is rapidly advancing its 2nm production capabilities, with Kaohsiung set to become a key production hub for the 2nm family, including the introduction of the A16 process in 2024 [3][4][5] - The total investment in the Kaohsiung facility is expected to exceed $50 billion, marking a significant milestone in semiconductor manufacturing [3][4] - The establishment of five fabs (P1 to P5) is projected to create approximately 7,000 high-tech jobs and 20,000 construction jobs, significantly boosting the local economy [3][4][5] Investment and Production Plans - The P1 fab is set to begin mass production of 2nm wafers by the end of this year, while the P2 fab is currently in the equipment installation phase, aiming for mass production in Q2 2024 [3][5] - The P3 fab is expected to start construction in October 2024, with all five fabs projected to be operational by Q4 2027, establishing a leading global 2nm cluster [5] - TSMC's investment in Kaohsiung is anticipated to surpass NT$1.5 trillion, setting a new record for corporate investment in the region [3][4] Technological Advancements - The A16 process will enhance performance and power efficiency, incorporating a new chip architecture that is crucial for AI and high-performance computing [4][5] - The A14 process is scheduled for mass production in 2028, with the main production base located in Taichung, indicating a strong market demand for AI and high-efficiency computing [4][5] Economic Impact - The development of the Nanzih Science Park, which includes the P1 and P2 fabs, is expected to create over 10,000 jobs when considering construction workers and downstream contractors [4] - The local government is committed to optimizing the investment environment to support TSMC's operations and enhance the semiconductor ecosystem in southern Taiwan [5]