该行预期台积电2026财年营收按年增长24%，至于2纳米制程在2026年的营收贡献料将达到9%，若智能 型手机及HPC(高效能运算)客户的需求较预期强劲，相信仍有上升空间。 美银证券发表报告，上调台积电2026及2027财年的每股盈利预测各8%与9%，主要由于定价前景改善， 重申"买入"评级，并将目标市盈率由21倍上调至22倍，目标价由290美元调高至330美元。 ...

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 供应链指出，台积电将高雄定位为2纳米家族主力据点，未来五座Phase将陆续量产2纳米与A16制程。业界观察，A16制程除提升效能与功耗比，更首次导入晶背供 电结构，是AI与高速运算晶片性能飞跃关键技术。随着高雄厂进入量产期，台积电在先进制程区域分工逐步成形。 据悉，A14制程预定2028年量产，由新竹宝山Fab20的P3、P4率先推进，主要量产基地则为台中Fab25，共计四座厂房，预计今年底动工、2028年下半年投产。若高 雄第六厂同步导入A14，将使整体产能更具弹性，也显示市场对AI与高效能运算需求强劲。 美国亚利桑那州厂则预计在P3、P4导入2nm/A16。根据目前厂务工程业者评估，尽管速度正在加快，但P3厂最快明年中下旬才会开始进行无尘室、水电系统等施 作，因此2028年前要在美国大量生产2纳米难度高。相较之下，高雄建厂进度明显领先，未来可望成为台积电2纳米以下制程的全球核心枢纽。 来源 ： 内容来自 工商时报 。 埃米（angstrom）时代即将来临，台积电先进制程布局马不停蹄。供应链透露，高雄将成为2纳米生产重镇，Fab22规划的五座厂区（Phase ...

程强系德邦证券研究所所长、首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事 市场概览 2025年9月24日周三，A股市场震荡上行，债券市场继续调整，工业品期货普涨。 PART.02 市场行情分析 1）股票市场：震荡上行，创业板与科创50均创阶段新高 市场普涨，缩量上行。今日A股市场整体走强，上证指数突破3850点整数关口，收涨0.83%；深证成指涨1.80%、创业板指涨2.28%、 科创50指数涨3.49%，均创阶段新高。全市场4457只个股上涨，占比超80%。两市成交额2.35万亿，较前一日缩量约0.17万亿。市场呈 现"科技驱动+结构分化"特征，"9.24"新政一周年效应持续释放，科技成长股主导的慢牛格局延续。 科技板块领涨市场，继续强化主线地位。市场今日小幅低开后即震荡上行，台积电宣布2纳米制程相比3纳米制程涨价50%，科技产业 需求旺盛催化科技板块行情，半导体、光伏设备、游戏等科技成长板块领涨，银行、煤炭等传统板块表现落后，表明当前市场资金 活跃度维持高位，市场维持积极风险偏好。今日为"9.24"新政一周年，政策综合作用下市场维持慢牛格局，一年来创业板指累计涨幅 近100%，科创50累计涨幅近120%，表现明显 ...

Group 1 - Alibaba's CEO predicts that achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is a certainty, with the ultimate goal being the development of Super Artificial Intelligence (ASI) [2] - Alibaba announced a series of initiatives to advance AI infrastructure, including an investment of 380 billion in AI infrastructure and the launch of new large model technology products [2] - The Chinese government, through eight departments, issued guidelines to promote digital consumption, focusing on expanding supply and enhancing the digital consumption ecosystem [3] Group 2 - The balance of margin financing in the A-share market has surpassed 2.4 trillion, with several brokerages increasing their credit business limits to facilitate more capital [4][5] - The U.S. government has initiated a Section 232 investigation into the import of robots, industrial machinery, and medical devices, potentially leading to new tariffs [6] - A new policy financial tool is expected to be established with an initial scale of 500 billion, aimed at supporting private enterprises and various sectors [7] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 600 billion MLF operation to maintain liquidity, marking the seventh consecutive month of increased liquidity measures [8] - TSMC's stock surged amid rumors of price increases for its 3nm and 2nm process nodes, although the company refrained from commenting on these speculations [9] - Local governments are competing for tourism and consumption flow ahead of the National Day holiday, planning over 25,000 cultural and tourism activities [10] Group 4 - The options market in China has reached a historical high, with a daily average open interest increase of 207% compared to 2022 [11] - Intel is seeking investment from Apple as part of its business revival strategy, although discussions are still in the early stages [13] - A significant acquisition announcement was made by Zhiyuan Robotics, which plans to acquire approximately 149 million shares of a company at a price of 7.78 per share [14] Group 5 - Several listed companies have disclosed pre-bid information for projects with the State Grid, indicating a strong pipeline of orders [15] - Yushun Technology's founder announced that humanoid robots will be capable of performing tasks by next year, coinciding with advancements in global robotics technology [16] - The A-share market has shown signs of volatility, but analysts believe the long-term upward trend remains intact, with opportunities arising from market adjustments [20][21]

Macro Dynamics - The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Emergency Management allocated 150 million yuan for disaster relief in Guangdong, Hainan, and Fujian due to severe flooding and geological disasters caused by Typhoon "Haikui" [2] - Nine departments, including the Ministry of Commerce, issued policies to support the establishment of international data centers and cloud computing centers in free trade zones and pilot areas for service industry expansion [3] Energy Sector - From January to August 2025, the national electricity market trading volume reached 4,344.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 7.0%, accounting for 63.2% of total electricity consumption [5] - The trading volume for the entire year of 2025 is projected to be 6,550 billion kWh, with significant growth in green electricity trading, which increased by 47.2% [5] Lottery Sales - In August, national lottery sales totaled 53.401 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.8% year-on-year, primarily due to high sales figures from the previous year's Olympic events [6] Financial Institutions - Zhejiang Securities' board approved an increase in the financing business scale from 40 billion yuan to 50 billion yuan to enhance credit business development [8] - Shanghai Huari Bank announced a reduction in RMB deposit rates, with the interest rate for demand deposits lowered to 0.1% and various term deposit rates adjusted downwards [9] Market Data - On September 24, A-shares saw collective gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.83% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 2.28% [11] - The total financing balance in the two markets decreased by 7.83 billion yuan as of September 23 [12] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose by 1.37%, with significant gains in technology and home appliance stocks [13] Company Dynamics - TSMC responded to rumors of price increases for its 3nm and 2nm processes, stating it does not comment on market rumors and will continue to work closely with customers [14] - Toyota China clarified that the "single city, single store" sales channel adjustment is currently just an experiment aimed at improving service and efficiency [15] - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical signed a licensing agreement with Glenmark Specialty for its innovative drug, with an upfront payment of 18 million USD and potential milestone payments up to 1.093 billion USD [16] - Shanghai Zhiyuan Hengyue Technology plans to acquire 37% of the shares of Shangwei New Materials at a price of 7.78 yuan per share, with a total funding requirement of 1.161 billion yuan [17]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 09 月 24 日 策略点评 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 "9.24"新政一周年，慢牛格局延续 摘要。2025 年 9 月 24 日周三，A 股市场震荡上行，债券市场继续调整，工业品期 货普涨。 一、市场行情分析 1）股票市场：震荡上行，创业板与科创 50 均创阶段新高 图 1：近一年主要宽基指数涨幅 节前正常缩量，维持震荡慢牛观点，聚焦科技主线不变。虽然市场连续两日成交额 缩量，但我们认为在当前政策空窗期（美联储议息会、中美元首通话、"十四五" 时期金融业发展成就发布会已落地），且国庆中秋假期临近，市场缩量属于正常现 象。当前全市场连续 31 天成交额超 2 万亿显示市场韧性，未出现资金大规模撤 离。我们认为当前政策空窗期环境下产业趋势对市场影响将更大，未 ...

Core Viewpoint - There are rumors that TSMC's third-generation 3nm process (N3P) foundry prices have increased by approximately 20% compared to the previous N3E process, and that the foundry prices for the 2nm process to be supplied next year will rise by 50% [1] Group 1 - TSMC has not commented on market rumors and pricing issues [1] - The company's pricing strategy is always strategy-oriented rather than opportunity-oriented [1] - TSMC will continue to work closely with customers to provide value [1]

Company Insights - TSMC plans to increase prices for its 2nm process by at least 50% compared to the 3nm process, leading to a stock price increase of 5% overnight, closing up 3.7% [1] - Micron's revenue surged by 46% in the last quarter, with EPS doubling and guidance for the upcoming quarter indicating over 40% year-on-year growth, leading to a stock price increase of over 4% in after-hours trading [2] - Tianpu Co., a stock that has seen 15 consecutive trading increases, announced a suspension for further verification due to significant deviation from its fundamentals, warning investors of market risks [4] Industry Trends - The penetration rate of combination driving assistance systems in the passenger car market has exceeded 60%, indicating a strong growth potential for related components and technology providers [9] - China's monthly electricity consumption has surpassed 1 trillion kilowatt-hours for two consecutive months, suggesting a stable demand for long-duration assets like hydropower and nuclear power [10] - The solid-state battery industry is expected to see accelerated development, with a potential industrialization milestone by 2027, driven by collaboration between automakers and battery manufacturers [11]

Industry Insights - The price of the latest 3nm process CPUs has increased by approximately 20% compared to the previous generation, with a further expected increase of over 50% for the upcoming 2nm process [1] - TSMC has communicated to clients that wafer foundry prices for 5/4, 3, and 2nm processes will rise by about 5% to 10% due to issues related to tariffs, exchange rates, and supply chain efficiency [1] - The global semiconductor wafer production capacity is projected to grow from 31.5 million pieces per month in 2024 to 33.7 million pieces per month in 2025, driven by increasing chip demand [1] - The rise of the AI industry is boosting demand for high-end consumer electronics and computing power, which is expected to sustain growth in the wafer foundry sector in the coming years [1] - The wafer foundry industry in mainland China has a cost advantage of approximately 30-40% compared to overseas foundries, which is accelerating the layout of domestic capacity by foreign companies due to geopolitical factors [1] Company Developments - SMIC, the leading semiconductor foundry in mainland China, has achieved mass production from 90nm to 14nm, with its N+1 process nearing 7nm levels; Goldman Sachs has raised the company's 12-month target price for A-shares from 160.1 RMB to 182.8 RMB [2] - Yandong Microelectronics focuses on 6-inch and 8-inch specialty process platform products in its wafer foundry business; the company has announced that a light communication product has entered the sample trial production stage [2]

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 报导指出，台积电2纳米产量将显著高于3纳米，主要归功其定价策略更具吸引力，同时吸引到高速运 算客户加入。 报导分析，这意味台积电2纳米不仅需求强劲，AI产业也将占其中极大比重。虽然希金斯没有透露具 体客户名单，业界预期，包括苹果、联发科、超微、英伟达、高通、Google、博通、亚马逊、迈威 尔、Meta、微软、OpenAI等，「只要你想得到和AI应用有关的科技大厂」，都是台积电2纳米的客 户。 台积电对2纳米制程深具信心，董事长魏哲家先前已公开表态：「2纳米需求将会超越其前一代制程， 预计将为公司提供稳定的业务基础和五年内可持续成长。」 台积电初期2纳米产线将横跨台湾四个主要晶圆厂区，地点位于新竹宝山及高雄。为满足客户需求， 台积电积极扩产，预计到2026年，2纳米月产能将达10万片。 来源 ： 内容来自经济日报 。 台积电（2330）2纳米订单超旺，晶圆检测设备大厂科磊（KLA）高层爆料，台积电已有15家2纳米 客户，当中十家来自高速运算（HPC）领域。这意味AI相关应用大举推升台积电2纳米需求，台积电 大咬AI红利之际，2纳米也成为新世代制程的核心动能。 这 ...