Core Insights - The report highlights that the inbound economy may boost China's GDP by approximately 0.2 percentage points in 2025, driven by policy changes aimed at optimizing the outbound tax refund system and increasing inbound consumption [5][6][7] - The report provides a detailed analysis of various industries and companies, indicating a mixed performance across sectors, with some companies showing strong growth while others face challenges [3][4] Industry Overview - **Chemical Industry**: Huafeng Chemical (002064.SZ) reported Q1 performance exceeding expectations, with revenue of 6.314 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.15%, and a net profit of 504 million yuan, down 26.21% year-on-year, but a significant increase of 145.60% quarter-on-quarter [28][29] - **Coal Mining**: Lu'an Environmental Energy (601699.SH) faced a decline in both volume and price, leading to a projected annual revenue of 35.85 billion yuan, down 16.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.45 billion yuan, down 69.1% year-on-year [32][33] - **Textiles and Apparel**: Mousse Co., Ltd. (001323.SZ) reported a Q1 revenue of 1.12 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.7% year-on-year, with expectations for recovery following government subsidies [54][55] - **Home Appliances**: Dechang Co., Ltd. (605555.SH) achieved a Q1 revenue of 1 billion yuan, up 21.33% year-on-year, with a focus on expanding production capacity in Southeast Asia [40][41] Company-Specific Insights - **Huafeng Chemical**: The company is consolidating its position in the polyurethane industry through vertical mergers and acquisitions, maintaining a "buy" rating with projected net profits of 2.474 billion, 3.110 billion, and 3.822 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [28][30] - **Lu'an Environmental Energy**: The company is expected to see a rebound in coal prices, with a focus on capacity growth and price elasticity, maintaining a "buy" rating despite recent performance challenges [32][34] - **Mousse Co., Ltd.**: The company is enhancing its multi-channel and multi-category market layout, with a projected net profit of 799 million, 872 million, and 956 million yuan for 2025-2027 [54][55] - **Dechang Co., Ltd.**: The company is expanding its overseas production capacity and expects significant growth in its automotive motor segment, maintaining a "buy" rating [40][41]

2025 年 04 月 29 日 宏观研究团队 入境经济或提振 2025 年 GDP 0.2 个百分点 ——兼评 3 月企业利润数据 何宁（分析师） 陈策（分析师） hening@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522110002 chence@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524020002 事件：4 月 26 日，商务部等 6 部门印发《关于进一步优化离境退税政策扩大入 境消费的通知》，下调离境退税起退点至 200 元，现金退税限额上调至 2 万元。 入境经济或提振 2025 年 GDP 约 0.2 个百分点 1、我国入境经济占 GDP 比重有较大提升空间，2025 年或提振 GDP 约 0.2 个百 分点。纵向来看，2015-2019 年我国入境旅游收入占 GDP 比重稳定在 0.9-1.0 个 百分点，2024 年入境旅游稳步向疫前水平修复，占 GDP 比重回升 0.2 个百分点 至 0.5%，收入、游客数量、人均支出分别为 942 亿美元、1.3 亿人、725 美元， 较 2019 年仍有 20%、11%、28%的修复空间。横向来看，我们根据世界银行数 据测算，2019 年全球、OEC ...