2月28日，国家统计局发布《中华人民共和国2025年国民经济和社会发展统计公报》。 2025年规模以上工业中，农副食品加工业增加值比上年增长5.6%，纺织业增长3.0%，化学原料和化学制品制造业增长 7.8%，非金属矿物制品业下降0.6%，黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业增长4.5%，通用设备制造业增长8.0%，专用设备制造业 增长4.3%，汽车制造业增长11.5%，电气机械和器材制造业增长9.2%，计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业增长10.6%， 电力、热力生产和供应业增长2.2%。 其中，2025年中国太阳能发电量11732.4亿千瓦时，同比增长39.8%。 | 产品名称 | 単位 | デ量 | 比上年增长(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原煤 | 亿吨 | 48.5 | 1.4 | | 原油 | 万吨 | 21608.7 | 1.5 | | 天然气 | 亿立方米 | 2620.6 | 6.3 | | 发电量 | 亿千瓦时 | 105752.5 | 4.8 | | 其中:火电[27] | 亿千瓦时 | 63271.5 | -0.7 | | 水电 | 亿千瓦时 | 14616.7 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In December, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits rebounded significantly by 18.4 percentage points to 5.3%, pulling the cumulative year-on-year growth rate for the whole year to 0.6%, but the profit margin remains at a historical low. [1] - In January, the manufacturing PMI fell back into the contraction range. The input price was stronger than the finished product price, and the trend of squeezing enterprise profits still exists. Recently, the rotation of commodity prices is mainly driven by the cost side rather than overheated demand, which has limited suppression on the bond market. [1] - The economic data is weak. The long Spring Festival holiday in February may hinder credit issuance. Coupled with the recent stock market fluctuations and commodity price adjustments, short - term favorable factors are concentrated. Considering that it is the beginning of the "15th Five - Year Plan" and the PPI is in the cycle of turning positive, if the interest rate continues to decline, it is recommended to be cautious about chasing the long - end interest rate in the short term. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Market News - **Diplomatic Event**: The British Prime Minister visited China again after an 8 - year interval. During the visit, China and the UK reached a series of positive results, including promoting the development of a long - term and stable comprehensive strategic partnership, holding a new round of strategic dialogue, economic and financial dialogue, and other mechanism - based dialogues, and establishing a China - UK financial working group. China is also considering implementing a unilateral visa - free policy for British citizens and reducing the import tariff rate of whisky from 10% to 5%. [2][9] - **Industrial Policy**: China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation plans to promote the development of new fields such as space tourism during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, including accelerating the iteration of sub - orbital and orbital space tourism aircraft products, and conducting related flight verifications. It will also carry out the demonstration of the "Tianguangkaiwu" major project. [2][9] - **Real Estate Policy**: Many real estate enterprises are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report the "Three Red Lines" indicators monthly. However, some troubled real estate enterprises are required to regularly report financial indicators such as asset - liability ratio to the special team in the city where their headquarters are located. [2][10] - **Consumption Policy**: The General Office of the State Council issued the "Work Plan for Accelerating the Cultivation of New Growth Points in Service Consumption", proposing 12 policy measures in three aspects: stimulating the development vitality of key fields, cultivating the development momentum of potential fields, and strengthening support and guarantee. [2][10] - **Data Security Policy**: The Cyberspace Administration of China solicited opinions on the classification and grading rules for financial information service data. The "Guidelines for the Classification and Grading of Financial Information Service Data (Draft for Comment)" classifies financial information service data into three primary categories: business data, user data, and enterprise data, with further subdivisions. [2][10] - **Financial Data**: By the end of 2025, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China increased by 16.1% year - on - year, with solar power generation and wind power generation having significant growth. The profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.6% year - on - year in 2025, reversing the three - year decline trend. At the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 51.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%, with a reduction of 963.6 billion yuan for the whole year. The manufacturing PMI in January 2026 was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. [2][11][13] Overseas Key Data and Events - **Federal Reserve Decision**: The Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting decided to keep the interest rate unchanged with a 10 - to - 2 vote. Two members opposed and advocated a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut. [2][14] - **US Government Issue**: The US government appropriation bill failed to pass the Senate, and the US federal government faces the risk of partial "shutdown" again. [2][14] - **Exchange Rate Observation**: The US Treasury Department included 10 economies such as China, Japan, and South Korea in the exchange - rate observation list, claiming that the RMB was significantly undervalued. [2][14] - **Canada's Action**: Canadian Prime Minister Carney said that a formal review of the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement would be launched in a few weeks. [2][14] - **South Korea's Semiconductor**: South Korea's semiconductor exports were strong in January, with the total export amount reaching $20.5 billion, a year - on - year increase of more than 102%. [2][15] - **Precious Metal Market**: US President Trump's nomination of Wash as the Federal Reserve Chairman triggered a sharp sell - off in the precious metal market. Spot gold had an intraday decline of nearly 13%, and spot silver plunged by more than 35%. [2][15] Market Performance - **Stock and Bond Market**: This week, the stock market fluctuated. The yields of most 3 - to 10 - year treasury bonds declined, with the yield of the 10 - year ChinaBond treasury bond falling to 1.8112%. The yield of the 30 - year ChinaBond treasury bond rose slightly to 2.289%, and the term spread between the 10 - year and 30 - year bonds widened again. [1]

2026 2026 年 年第 1 月 5 27 期 宏观经济 日 工业企业利润数据点评 新旧分化显著，工业企业利润年增速结束连续三年负 增长转正 ——12 月工业企业利润数据点评 事件：2025 年 1-12 月工业企业营收同比增长 1.1%，较 2024 年回落 1 个百分点，较 1-11 月回落 0.5 个百分点；1-12 月工业企 业利润同比 0.6%，较 2024 年回升 3.9 个百分点，较 1-11 月回升 0.5 个百分点,12 月当月利润同比 5.3%，较上年同期回落 5.7 个百 分点，较 11 月回升 18.4 个百分点。 "量"的支撑边际加大、"价"的拖累减轻，12 月工业企业 利润由负转正，2025 年工业企业利润扭转连续 3 年负增长态势， 增速转正但仍位于低位水平。12 月工业企业利润当月同比由负转 正，为 5.3%，较 11 月回升 18.4 个百分点，为近 3 个月最高。量 的方面，12 月年底备货的季末效应和出口拉动下工业增加值增速 回升，12 月工业增加值同比较上月回升 0.4 个百分点至 5.2%。价 的方面，12 月 PPI 当月同比下降 1.9%，降幅较前值收窄 0. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1][2][3][4] 2. Core View - The report predicts that iron ore will operate in a volatile manner [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Ore Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of I2605 was 791.5 yuan/ton, down 7.0 yuan/ton or 0.88%. The yesterday's position was 541,228 hands, with a decrease of 14,164 hands [2] - **Spot Prices**: Among imported ores, the price of PB (61.5%) was 794.0 yuan/ton, down 6.0 yuan/ton; the price of Jinbuba (61%) was 743.0 yuan/ton, down 9.0 yuan/ton; the price of Chaote (56.5%) was 680.0 yuan/ton, down 4.0 yuan/ton. Among domestic ores, the prices of Hanxing (66%) and Laiwu (65%) remained unchanged at 956.0 yuan/ton and 874.0 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of I2605 against Chaote increased by 2.7 yuan/ton to 94.3 yuan/ton, while the basis against Jinbuba decreased by 2.7 yuan/ton to 70.6 yuan/ton. The spread of I2605 - I2609 decreased by 0.5 yuan/ton to 19.0 yuan/ton, and the spread of I2609 - I2701 decreased by 1.0 yuan/ton to 12.5 yuan/ton. The spread of Carajás - PB increased by 6.0 yuan/ton to 90.0 yuan/ton, the spread of PB - Jinbuba increased by 3.0 yuan/ton to 51.0 yuan/ton, and the spread of PB - Chaote decreased by 2.0 yuan/ton to 114.0 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - China's industrial enterprises above designated size saw a 5.3% year - on - year increase in profits in December and a 0.6% increase for the whole year [2] - Many real estate enterprises are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report the "Three Red Lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled real estate enterprises need to regularly report financial indicators such as asset - liability ratio to the special team in their headquarters city [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend intensity is [-2, 2], where -2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [3]

Key Points - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent economic indicators and policy decisions that may impact investment strategies, particularly in the context of industrial profits and monetary policy adjustments by the Federal Reserve [2]. Group 1: Important Events Review - On January 27, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that in 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 73,982 billion yuan, an increase of 0.6% compared to the previous year. In December, profits of these enterprises grew by 5.3% year-on-year [2]. - On January 28, the Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%. The statement removed references to increasing employment risks, indicating improvements in economic conditions, particularly with signs of stabilization in the unemployment rate, suggesting a more cautious approach from Fed decision-makers [2]. - On January 29, U.S. President Trump stated that he had engaged in discussions with Iran amid escalating tensions and planned to continue dialogue while threatening military action to urge Iran to accept the terms of an agreement [2]. - On January 30, President Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as the next Federal Reserve Chair, advocating for quicker interest rate cuts while also supporting a reduction in the Fed's balance sheet, positioning him as relatively hawkish compared to other candidates [2]. Group 2: Market Overview - The bond market continued its recovery, while the equity market showed weak fluctuations. The sentiment in the bond market improved, with long-term bond yields declining again at the beginning of the week. Many local governments set GDP targets that were either in line with or slightly lower than the national growth rate of 5% from the previous year, indicating a shift away from aggressive growth targets [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides daily research and analysis on various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs. It presents the latest market trends, price movements, and fundamental data for each commodity, along with corresponding trading strategies and trend strength ratings [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - The price of iron ore futures (I2605) closed at 798.5 yuan/ton, up 15.5 yuan or 1.98% from the previous day. The持仓 decreased by 9,221 hands to 555,392 hands. The price of imported and domestic iron ore increased slightly, while the price of some domestic iron ore remained unchanged. The basis and spreads showed certain fluctuations [4]. - The trend strength is rated as 1, indicating a relatively strong upward trend [5]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - The price of rebar futures (RB2605) closed at 3,157 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan or 1.12%, and the price of hot-rolled coil futures (HC2605) closed at 3,308 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan or 0.79%. The trading volume and open interest of both increased. The spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils in different regions showed varying degrees of increase or remained unchanged [7]. - The trend strength of both rebar and hot-rolled coils is rated as 0, indicating a neutral trend [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures increased. The spot price of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased, while the spot price of silicomanganese remained unchanged. The basis, spreads, and other indicators showed certain fluctuations [11]. - The trend strength of both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is rated as 0, indicating a neutral trend [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - The price of coking coal futures (JM2605) closed at 1,165 yuan/ton, up 30.5 yuan or 2.7%, and the price of coke futures (J2605) closed at 1,723 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan or 2.3%. The trading volume of coking coal increased, while the open interest decreased. The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions remained mostly unchanged [17]. - The trend strength of both coke and coking coal is rated as 0, indicating a neutral trend [20]. Thermal Coal - The prices of thermal coal in production areas, ports, and overseas markets showed different degrees of change. The 1 - month long - term contract price decreased. The port market was stable with a slightly upward trend, and the pit - mouth price also showed a strong trend [21][22]. - The report suggests that the supply and demand of thermal coal are both weakening, and the coal price is slightly rising. Logs - The prices of log futures contracts showed an upward trend, and the trading volume of some contracts increased significantly. The spot prices of logs in different regions and varieties showed little change or a slight increase [23]. - The trend strength of logs is rated as 0, indicating a neutral trend [26].

Core Insights - In 2025, the total profit of large-scale industrial enterprises in China reached 739.82 billion yuan, marking a 0.6% increase from the previous year, reversing a three-year decline trend [1] Industry Performance - The petroleum and natural gas extraction industry reported a total profit of 276.49 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.7% year-on-year [1] - The chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry achieved a total profit of 376.62 billion yuan, down 7.3% from the previous year [1] - The mining industry saw a total profit of 834.51 billion yuan, a significant decline of 26.2% [1] - The manufacturing sector generated a total profit of 569.16 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 5.0% [1] - The electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry reported a profit of 872.12 billion yuan, increasing by 9.4% [1] Profit Distribution by Ownership - State-controlled enterprises achieved a total profit of 2056.1 billion yuan, down 3.9% year-on-year [1] - Shareholding enterprises reported a total profit of 5540.83 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.1% [1] - Foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises saw a profit of 1744.74 billion yuan, an increase of 4.2% [1] - Private enterprises maintained a profit of 2281.06 billion yuan, unchanged from the previous year [1] Revenue and Cost Analysis - The total operating revenue of large-scale industrial enterprises reached 139.20 trillion yuan, up 1.1% from the previous year [2] - Operating costs amounted to 118.75 trillion yuan, increasing by 1.3% [2] - The operating income margin was 5.31%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points year-on-year [2] Financial Position - By the end of 2025, total assets of large-scale industrial enterprises were 188.41 trillion yuan, a growth of 4.3% [2] - Total liabilities reached 108.58 trillion yuan, up 4.2% [2] - Total equity was 79.82 trillion yuan, increasing by 4.5% [2] - The asset-liability ratio stood at 57.6%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous year [2] Accounts Receivable and Inventory - Accounts receivable amounted to 27.43 trillion yuan, a growth of 4.7% year-on-year [3] - Finished goods inventory was 6.73 trillion yuan, increasing by 3.9% [3] - The average collection period for accounts receivable was 67.9 days, an increase of 3.6 days [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of the cumulative revenue of national industrial enterprises above designated size was 1.1% (2.1% in 2024), and the year - on - year growth rate of the total annual profit was 0.6% (-3.3% in 2024). Price improvement was the dominant factor, while the growth rate of industrial added value and operating profit margin remained basically stable. In December 2025, the profit growth rate turned positive, rising from -13% to 5.3%, driven by both volume and price increases [2]. - The stabilization of prices was the core of the annual profit growth. The growth rate of industrial added value of enterprises above designated size remained basically stable compared with 2024, and the policy of "anti - involution" led to an upward trend in PPIRM and PPI year - on - year growth rates since the second half of 2025, with CPI returning to the level of early 2023 by the end of the year. The operating profit margin of industrial enterprises above designated size in 2025 was 5.31% (5.39% at the end of 2024) [3]. - The proportion of mid - stream profits continued to increase, and the equipment manufacturing industry was the core engine. The profit structure of industrial enterprises was further optimized, with the profit share of upstream, mid - stream, and downstream industries being 16:48:36 in 2025 (21:44:36 in 2024). The equipment manufacturing industry's profit increased by 7.7% in 2025, driving the growth of all industrial enterprises' profits by 2.8 percentage points [4]. - The willingness of enterprises to expand their operations was weak. The year - on - year growth rate of finished product inventory of industrial enterprises above designated size in 2025 was 3.9%, 0.6 percentage points higher than in 2024. At the end of December, the asset - liability ratio of industrial enterprises was 57.6%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year - on - year, and the liability growth rate was 4.2%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points year - on - year. Inventory turned to passive destocking at the end of the year [7]. - Overall, the continuous recovery of industrial enterprises' profits in 2025 was the result of the effectiveness of "anti - involution" and industry policies, price stabilization, and industrial upgrading. High - tech manufacturing provided the core growth impetus. The market's core driver may gradually shift from "risk preference repair" and "policy expectation" to "profit verification" and "industry trend" [8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Stabilization as the Core of Annual Profit Growth - Volume: The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of enterprises above designated size was 5.9% in 2025, basically the same as in 2024, indicating stable expansion of industrial production [3]. - Price: The policy of "anti - involution" led to an upward trend in PPIRM and PPI year - on - year growth rates since the second half of 2025, and CPI had recovered to the level of early 2023 by the end of the year [3]. - Profit Margin: The operating profit margin of industrial enterprises above designated size in 2025 was 5.31%, compared with 5.39% at the end of 2024 [3]. Mid - stream Profit Proportion Continued to Increase, with Equipment Manufacturing as the Core Engine - Industry Profit Structure: The profit share of upstream, mid - stream, and downstream industries was 16:48:36 in 2025 (21:44:36 in 2024), showing an optimization of the profit structure of industrial enterprises [4]. - Equipment Manufacturing Industry: In 2025, the profit of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 7.7% compared with the previous year, driving the growth of all industrial enterprises' profits by 2.8 percentage points. Seven out of the eight major industries in the equipment manufacturing industry saw profit growth, with double - digit growth in the railway, ship, aerospace, and electronics industries [4]. - Upstream Raw Material Industry: Supported by the "anti - involution" policy and the recovery of some commodity prices, the profit decline of industries such as coal mining and non - ferrous metal smelting continued to narrow or the growth rate turned positive [4][6]. - Consumer Goods Manufacturing Industry: Affected by the relatively slow recovery of terminal demand, the year - on - year profit growth rates of consumer goods industries such as food manufacturing and textiles were still negative or at a low level, showing obvious structural weakness [6]. Weak Willingness of Enterprises to Expand Operations - Inventory: The year - on - year growth rate of finished product inventory of industrial enterprises above designated size in 2025 was 3.9%, 0.6 percentage points higher than in 2024. At the end of the year, inventory turned to passive destocking under the background of profit improvement and rising upstream raw material prices [7]. - Asset - Liability Ratio and Liability Growth Rate: At the end of December, the asset - liability ratio of industrial enterprises was 57.6%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year - on - year, and the liability growth rate was 4.2%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points year - on - year [7]. Asset Allocation Viewpoint - The continuous recovery of industrial enterprises' profits in 2025 was the result of the effectiveness of "anti - involution" and industry policies, price stabilization, and industrial upgrading. High - tech manufacturing provided the core growth impetus. The market's core driver may gradually shift from "risk preference repair" and "policy expectation" to "profit verification" and "industry trend" [8].

Core Insights - The total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in the country reached 739.82 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.6% [1] Group 1: Profit Distribution by Ownership - State-controlled enterprises achieved a total profit of 205.61 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 3.9% [2] - Joint-stock enterprises reported a total profit of 554.08 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.1% [3] - Foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises realized a total profit of 174.47 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [3] - Private enterprises maintained a total profit of 228.11 billion yuan, showing no change year-on-year [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - The mining industry recorded a total profit of 83.45 billion yuan, experiencing a significant year-on-year decline of 26.2% [3] - The manufacturing sector achieved a total profit of 569.16 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of sufficient supply and temporarily stable demand, with seasonal inventory accumulation in social inventories. The option market sentiment is bullish with a slight decline in implied volatility. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows double - lines above the 0 axis and the red bar expanding. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips with light positions, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 103,060 yuan/ton, up 460 yuan; LME 3 - month copper is 13,169 dollars/ton, up 162.5 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 260 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper is 227,447 lots, down 2,310 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 66,045 lots, up 3,756 lots. LME copper inventory is 172,350 tons, up 1,825 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 225,937 tons, up 12,422 tons. The warrant of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 148,038 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 101,660 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 101,580 yuan/ton, down 820 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 23 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 19.5 dollars/ton, down 2.5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is - 1,400 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan. The LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 93.8 dollars/ton, down 22.73 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 270.43 million tons, up 17.8 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 49.79 dollars/kiloton, down 3.26 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 91,870 yuan/metal ton, down 30 yuan; in Yunnan is 92,570 yuan/metal ton, down 30 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the south is 2,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the north is 1,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The output of refined copper is 132.6 million tons, up 9 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 69,040 yuan/ton, down 550 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 83,100 yuan/ton, down 850 yuan [2] Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.91 million tons, up 0.31 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 5,603.9 billion yuan, up 779.56 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 82,788.14 billion yuan, up 4,197.24 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345,500 pieces, up 415,345,500 pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 25.86%, up 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 22.97%, down 0.41%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 25.33%, down 0.0169%. The put - call ratio of at - the - money options is 1.62, down 0.0942 [2] Industry News - The Conference Board data shows that the US consumer confidence index in January dropped 9.7 points to 84.5, the lowest since 2014. US Census Bureau data indicates that the US population growth slowed in 2025, increasing by only 1.8 million (0.5%) to nearly 342 million. The "Fed whisperer" says the Fed is expected to pause rate cuts with an unclear path for resuming. China's National Bureau of Statistics data shows that the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in 2025 was 7.4 trillion yuan, up 0.6% year - on - year. In December, the profit of these enterprises turned from a 13.1% decline in November to a 5.3% increase. The central bank data shows that at the end of Q4 2025, the RMB real estate loan balance was 51.95 trillion yuan, a decrease of 963.6 billion yuan for the year. The real estate development loan balance was 13.16 trillion yuan, a decrease of 357.5 billion yuan for the year. The individual housing loan balance was 37.01 trillion yuan, a decrease of 676.8 billion yuan for the year [2]