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晓数点|10月财经日历请查收!
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-09-30 13:02
一图速览>> i 11 画 F ■ ting - 1999 L i 10 r an 4 n @ Time I th i 2025年 欧佩克公布 月度原油市 Iフ In H 吻拔言 2025年 诺贝尔奖 公布 2025世界农业科 初八 29 初: 6 十五 l 中l 方1 OpenAl 2025年 开发者大会 2025年诺贝尔当 港 A股休市 13 t H 国内成品油 IE/ 迎调价窗口 度 l LH 4 报 中国9月贸 易帐 港交所推出 泡泡玛特股 票期权 甘九 20 九, 十届四中全会 国家统计局 发布前三季 度国民经济 运行数据 70个大中 初- 城市住宅销 售价格月度 报告 中国10月 LPR 2025 北外滩国际航运 2025世界 VR产业大 a 27 初七 初, 国内成品油 第 如何补容门 | 能- と #リ 中国1-9月 规模以上工 亚在亚利润 年率 ...
【宏观经济】一周要闻回顾(2025年9月24日-9月30日)
乘联分会· 2025-09-30 09:36
点 击 蓝 字 关 注 我 们 本文全文共 3876 字,阅读全文约 13 分钟 2025年1—8月份全国规模以上工业企业利润增长0.9% 1—8月份,全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额46929.7亿元,同比增长0.9%(按可比口径计算)。 1—8月份,规模以上工业企业中,国有控股企业实现利润总额15156.5亿元,同比下降1.7%;股份制企业 实现利润总额34931.9亿元,增长1.1%;外商及港澳台投资企业实现利润总额11723.6亿元,增长0.9%;私营企 业实现利润总额13076.1亿元,增长3.3%。 2025年1—8月份全国规模以上工业企业利润增长0.9% 2024年我国研究与试验发展经费投入同比增长8.9% 2025年1-8月全国电力市场交易电量同比增长7.0% 2025年9月中国采购经理指数运行情况 1—8月份,采矿业实现利润总额5661.1亿元,同比下降30.6%;制造业实现利润总额35233.5亿元,增长 7.4%;电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业实现利润总额6035.1亿元,增长9.4%。 1—8月份,主要行业利润情况如下:电力、热力生产和供应业利润同比增长13.0%,有色金属冶炼和压延 ...
【笔记20250929— 留守债农:越努力越心酸】
债券笔记· 2025-09-29 14:10
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the financial market, highlighting the balance in the funding environment, the performance of industrial enterprise profits, and the implications for both the stock and bond markets [3][6]. Funding Environment - The funding environment is described as balanced and slightly loose, with the central bank conducting a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 288.6 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 48.1 billion yuan after 240.5 billion yuan matured [3]. - The interbank funding rates are stable, with DR001 around 1.31% and DR007 around 1.56% [4]. Market Performance - Industrial enterprise profit data for August exceeded expectations, contributing to a strong performance in the stock market, while bond market rates experienced fluctuations [6]. - The 10-year government bond yield showed slight movements, starting at 1.7975% and fluctuating to 1.8075% during the day [6][7]. Bond Market Activity - The trading volume in the bond market was low, with less than 300 transactions for the 10-year government bond, indicating a lack of activity among traders [7]. - A notable event was the postponement of a government bond issuance, which traders speculated was due to high interest rates rather than seasonal factors [7]. Interest Rates - The weighted rates for various repurchase agreements showed increases, with R001 at 1.38% (up 51 basis points) and R007 at 1.87% (up 23 basis points) [5]. - The yields for government bonds across different maturities indicated a general upward trend, with the 10-year bond yield increasing by 29 basis points to 1.8075% [9].
瑞达期货不锈钢产业日报-20250929
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 09:51
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recent nickel - iron prices have rebounded from a low level, strengthening the support of raw material costs. Steel mills' production profits have improved, and with the gradual increase in infrastructure and real - estate demand, stainless - steel mills are more confident, and their production schedules are expected to increase. However, the downstream is entering the traditional off - season. In October, infrastructure construction is expected to accelerate. With the favorable domestic fiscal investment policies and anti - involution measures, the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, market purchasing willingness has recovered, and pre - accumulated orders have been released. Meanwhile, holders of goods are more willing to sell, the domestic market maintains a de - stocking trend, and the spot premium remains stable. Technically, the price has dropped with an increase in positions, showing a strong short - selling atmosphere and breaking below the MA60 support. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for stainless steel is 12,760 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the 10 - 11 month contract spread is - 140 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 3,336 lots, an increase of 2,501 lots; the main contract position is 87,251 lots, a decrease of 11,471 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 87,148 tons, a decrease of 357 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,550 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the SS main contract is 480 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron production is 22,000 metal tons, a decrease of 200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 24,426.84 tons, a decrease of 13,807.17 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 874,100 tons, an increase of 38,200 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 122,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 450 yuan; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 955 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. The monthly Chinese chromite production is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7379 million tons, an increase of 39,800 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 562,300 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons. The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 398.0101 million square meters, an increase of 45.9501 million square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 27,600 units, an increase of 2,900 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 26,700 units, an increase of 6,900 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 9,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - The People's Bank of China will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, make good use of securities, fund, and insurance company swap facilities, and stock repurchase and increase - holding re - loans. The new statement in the next - stage monetary policy indicates that the focus of monetary policy in the future will be to implement the introduced policies. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council called on state - owned enterprises to resist "involution - style" competition. On the raw material side, Indonesia's PNBP policy has restricted issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, and the growth of Indonesia's nickel - iron production has slowed down while domestic production has gradually declined. China's industrial profits above a designated size in August increased by 20.4% year - on - year, reversing the 1.5% decline in July. The US core PCE price index in August increased by 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations, and consumer spending has increased for three consecutive months [2].
瑞达期货沪锡产业日报-20250929
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 09:51
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The report suggests a wait - and - see approach or buying on dips, with attention on the 271,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton range. Technically, with reduced positions and price adjustments, there is a divergence in long - short trading, and the 275,000 resistance level should be watched. The domestic inventory has decreased due to some pre - holiday stockpiling, while LME inventory has increased, and the spot premium is at a low level [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 272,410 yuan/ton, down 1,660 yuan; the closing price of the October - November contract is down 500 yuan, with a 30 - yuan decline. The LME 3 - month tin price is 34,415 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai Tin is 26,590 lots, down 2,701 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is 890 lots, down 474 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 2,775 tons, up 35 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 6,559 tons, down 429 tons. The LME tin cancelled warrants are 430 tons, up 45 tons [3] 现货市场 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warehouse receipts are 5,950 tons, down 127 tons. The SMM 1 tin spot price is 271,400 yuan/ton, down 2,300 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 271,110 yuan/ton, down 2,570 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 370 yuan/ton, down 360 yuan, and the LME tin spread (0 - 3) is - 50 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore concentrates is 1.03 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrates' processing fee is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrates is 259,400 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrates is 263,400 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan. The average processing fee of 60% tin concentrates is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 1,438.58 tons, down 885.91 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 176,170 yuan/ton, down 1,700 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 964,500 tons, up 141,600 tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 166,600 tons, down 39,400 tons [3] Industry News - The People's Bank of China will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and focus on implementing existing policies. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council calls on state - owned enterprises to resist "involution - style" competition. China's industrial enterprise profits in August increased by 20.4% year - on - year, reversing the 1.5% decline in July. Trump's new chip policy requires a 1:1 ratio of domestic production to imports for producers, with tariffs imposed if not met. The US core PCE price index in August increased by 0.2% month - on - month as expected, and consumer spending increased for three consecutive months [3] Viewpoint Summary - Although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted mining license approvals, actual ore output will not occur until the fourth quarter. The Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, and tin ore processing fees remain at a historical low. In July, the increase in production was due to multiple factors such as some enterprises' resumption of production and the clearance of intermediate products. However, the raw material shortage in Yunnan is still severe, and the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, with a low operating rate. On the demand side, downstream enterprises generally maintain rigid procurement due to cost pressure, with a low willingness to actively stockpile. Due to the approaching National Day holiday, some enterprises have made small - scale pre - holiday stockpiling, resulting in a decline in domestic inventory and a spot premium of 300 yuan/ton, while the LME inventory has increased and the spot premium is at a low level [3]
2025年8月工业企业利润数据点评:原材料利润领衔改善
Ping An Securities· 2025-09-29 08:50
Group 1: Profit Overview - From January to August 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises reached CNY 46,929.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%[2] - In August 2025, industrial enterprise profits grew by 20.4% year-on-year, an increase of 21.9 percentage points compared to the previous month[2] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises in August was 5.83%, up by 0.90 percentage points year-on-year[2] Group 2: Sector Performance - Raw materials manufacturing profits increased by 22.1%, a 10 percentage point rise from the previous month, driven by price recovery[2] - Consumer goods manufacturing profits shifted from a decline of 2.2% to a growth of 1.4%, mainly supported by the beverage and paper industries[2] - Equipment manufacturing profits grew by 7.2%, contributing 2.5 percentage points to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises[2] Group 3: Financial Metrics - The growth rates of industrial enterprise assets and liabilities were 5.0% and 5.4%, respectively, both showing an increase from the previous month[2] - The inventory of finished products increased by 2.3% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[2] - Accounts receivable growth declined to 6.6%, marking a continuous decrease for five months[2] Group 4: Risks and Recommendations - Risks include the potential ineffectiveness of growth stabilization policies, overseas economic recession, and escalating geopolitical conflicts[7] - The report recommends a strong buy rating for stocks expected to outperform the market by over 20% in the next six months[8]
宏观周报(9月第4周):利润改善持续性需进一步观察-20250929
Century Securities· 2025-09-29 02:42
Group 1: Economic Indicators - August industrial enterprise profits showed a cumulative year-on-year increase of 0.9%, compared to a previous decline of 1.7%[4] - Monthly profits turned from a decrease of 1.5% to a growth of 20.4%, primarily driven by price and profit margin contributions[4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the month increased by 0.7 percentage points to -2.9% compared to the previous month[4] Group 2: Market Trends - The market experienced a volume-decreasing rise last week, with an average transaction amount of 23,132 billion yuan, down by 2,047 billion yuan[4] - Small-cap indices saw a significant decline, with the small-cap index down by 1.50%[4] - The overall bond market yield rose, with the 10-year government bond yield increasing by 0.3 basis points[4] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Global Factors - The expectation of a domestic interest rate cut in October is increasing due to ongoing weak economic data[4] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have fluctuated, influenced by Powell's statements and better-than-expected economic data[4] - The U.S. announced new high tariffs on various imported products starting October 1, raising trade uncertainty[4] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - The sustainability of profit improvements requires further observation due to low base effects and short-term adjustments in some industries[4] - Risks include potential weakening of the economic fundamentals, escalation of trade frictions, and rapid contraction of Fed rate cut expectations[4]
1—8月全国规模以上纺织工业企业利润同比下跌7%
Guo Jia Tong Ji Ju· 2025-09-29 01:07
其中,2025年1—8月纺服工业企业利润情况如下: 1—8月份,全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额46929.7亿元,同比增长0.9%。 纺织业利润总额为426.4亿元,同比下跌7%。 纺织服装、服饰业利润总额为280.3亿元,同比下跌17.9%。 皮革、毛皮、羽毛及其制品和制鞋业利润总额为264.0亿元,同比下跌9.2%。 化学纤维制造业利润总额为165.2亿元,同比下跌2.6%。 ...
2025年8月工业企业利润点评:工业企业盈利水平明显改善,持续去库存
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-09-28 14:42
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial enterprise profit cumulative year - on - year turned positive, and the enterprise profitability continued to improve. In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly, structural problems such as prices are expected to improve, and the stock - bond allocation will continue to switch with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise continuously [4][6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Profit - Industrial enterprise profit cumulative year - on - year turned positive, and the monthly year - on - year increased significantly to 20.4%. From January to August, the profit of large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 0.9% year - on - year, up 2.6 pct from January to July; in August, it increased by 20.4% year - on - year, up 21.9 pct from July [4] - Analyzing from volume, price, and profit margin, from January to August, the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 6.2% year - on - year, down 0.1 pct from January to July; the PPI of all industrial products decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, the same as January to July; the profit margin of large - scale industrial revenue decreased by 1.87 percentage points year - on - year, and the decline narrowed by 2.76 pct compared with January to July [4] Structure By category - From January to August, the total profit of the mining industry decreased by 30.6% year - on - year, the manufacturing profit increased by 7.4% year - on - year, and the public utility profit increased by 9.4% year - on - year. The decline in mining profit narrowed by 1.0 pct, and the increase in public utility profit expanded due to the increase in water and electricity consumption caused by the large - scale high - temperature weather in August [4] - From January to August, the profit of the manufacturing industry increased by 2.6 pct compared with January to July. Among them, the profit of large - scale equipment manufacturing increased by 7.2%, driving the profit of all large - scale industrial enterprises up by 2.5 pct, which significantly supported the profit recovery of large - scale industrial enterprises [4] By enterprise nature - From January to August, the profit of state - owned enterprises decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, that of joint - stock enterprises increased by 1.1% year - on - year, that of foreign - invested and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan - invested enterprises increased by 0.9% year - on - year, and that of private enterprises increased by 3.3% year - on - year. The profit growth of private enterprises was 2.4 pct higher than the average level of all large - scale industrial enterprises, and 1.5 pct faster than January to July [5] - From January to August, the profit of large - scale industrial medium - sized enterprises increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and that of small enterprises increased by 1.5% year - on - year. The efficiency of small and medium - sized enterprises improved significantly [5] By industrial chain position - From January to August, the proportion of the cumulative profit of upstream raw material mining in the profit of large - scale industrial enterprises was 12.1%, that of mid - stream material manufacturing was 15.6%, that of downstream equipment manufacturing was 37.5%, that of downstream consumer goods manufacturing was 21.3%, that of other manufacturing was 0.6%, and that of public utilities was 12.9% [5] Inventory and Asset - Liability Ratio - At the end of August, the nominal and real inventory year - on - year were 2.1% and 5.0% respectively, down 0.3 pct and 1.0 pct respectively, and the decline in real inventory year - on - year accelerated; at the end of August, the overall asset - liability ratio of industrial enterprises was 58.0%, up 0.1 pct month - on - month [6] Bond Market Viewpoint - With the revision of economic expectations, bond yields are expected to rise trend - wise. In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly; structural problems such as prices are expected to improve trend - wise; the stock - bond allocation will continue to switch, and bond yields and the stock market are expected to rise continuously [6][7]
两类行业利润改善——8月工业企业利润点评
一瑜中的· 2025-09-28 13:58
文 : 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜(执业证号:S0360518090001) 联系人: 陆银波(15210860866) 报告摘要 8 月工业企业利润数据:利润增速回升 8 月,根据统计局数据,规模以上工业企业利润同比由上月下降 1.5% 转为增长 20.4% 。若考虑基数影 响,今年和去年两年合计的增速,则 2025 年 8 月利润相比 2023 年 8 月同比为 -1.4% ,前值为 3.0% 。 库存方面,截止至今年 8 月,库存同比 2.3% ,前值为 2.4% 。 量、价、利润率拆分来看 , 量弱价升,收入增速小幅改善。 PPI 同比, 8 月同比为 -2.9% , 7 月为 -3.6% 。工业增加值 8 月增速为 5.2% , 7 月为 5.7% ;收入端 8 月增速为 2.3% , 7 月为 1.13% 。利 润率方面, 8 月为 5.8% ,去年同期(可比口径)为 4.97% 。 利润率拆分来看(改善主要来自其他损益 收入和毛利率), 8 月毛利率为 14.38% ,去年同期为 14.2% ;费用率 8.30% ,去年同期为 8.41% ;其 他损益收入比为 0.25% ,去 ...