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五矿期货能源化工日报-20250822
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 00:59
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oil price is relatively undervalued, and its static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts are still favorable. It is a good time for left - hand side layout. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, the current situation is weak, but demand is expected to improve with the arrival of the peak season. It is recommended to wait and see [4] - For urea, the current situation is weak, but the downside space is limited due to low corporate profits. It is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [6] - For rubber, it is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see. Partial closing of the long RU2601 and short RU2509 positions can be considered [11] - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It is recommended to wait and see [13] - For styrene, the BZN spread may be repaired, and the port inventory may decline from a high level. The styrene price may fluctuate upward following the cost side [15][16] - For polyethylene, the price may fluctuate upward, with the long - term contradiction shifting from cost - driven decline to South Korean ethylene clearance policy [18] - For polypropylene, there is high inventory pressure in the context of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [19] - For PX, it is expected to maintain low inventory, with support at the lower end of the valuation but limited upside in the short term. Pay attention to long - position opportunities following the oil price on dips during the peak season [21][22] - For PTA, the supply is in a de - stocking pattern, and the processing fee is expected to be repaired. Pay attention to long - position opportunities following PX on dips [23] - For ethylene glycol, the fundamentals are expected to turn from strong to weak, and there is downward pressure on the medium - term valuation [24] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Energy (Crude Oil) - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.34, or 0.54%, to $63.48; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.63, or 0.94%, to $67.67; INE main crude oil futures rose 8.80 yuan, or 1.85%, to 484.7 yuan [1] - **Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventory increased by 0.91 million barrels to 15.15 million barrels, a 6.42% increase; diesel inventory increased by 0.37 million barrels to 9.70 million barrels, a 3.98% increase; fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.61 million barrels to 23.04 million barrels, a 6.53% decrease; total refined oil inventory decreased by 0.33 million barrels to 47.89 million barrels, a 0.67% decrease [1] 3.2 Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 21, the 01 contract rose 1 yuan/ton to 2425 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 5 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 115 [4] - **Supply**: Coal prices have bottomed out and risen, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still at a high level compared to the same period. Domestic production starts are gradually bottoming out and increasing, and overseas plant starts have returned to the same - period high, with imports expected to increase [4] - **Demand**: Most traditional demand sectors have low profits. Olefin profits have improved, but port production starts are low, and demand is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" [4] 3.3 Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 21, the 01 contract fell 12 yuan/ton to 1764 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 24 [6] - **Supply**: Domestic production starts have changed from a decline to an increase. Although corporate profits are still low, they are expected to gradually bottom out and recover. The overall supply is relatively loose [6] - **Demand**: Domestic agricultural demand is ending and entering the off - season. Compound fertilizer production starts have further increased, with high finished product inventories. Exports are progressing steadily, and overall demand is average [6] 3.4 Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU prices declined and then fluctuated weakly [8] - **Supply and Demand Factors**: Bulls believe that the weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may help increase rubber production to a limited extent, and the seasonal pattern usually turns upward in the second half of the year, with improved demand expectations in China. Bears think that macro expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the positive impact on supply may be less than expected [9] - **Inventory and Production Starts**: As of August 21, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.54%, up 1.47 percentage points from the previous week and 6.25 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.38%, up 2.13 percentage points from the previous week and down 4.28 percentage points from the same period last year. As of August 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.8 tons, a decrease of 1.1 tons or 0.85% from the previous period [10] 3.5 PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract fell 4 yuan to 5004 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4740 (+20) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 264 (+24) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 132 (+5) yuan/ton [13] - **Supply and Demand**: The overall production start of PVC was 80.3%, up 0.9% from the previous period. The downstream demand start was 42.8%, down 0.1% from the previous period. Factory inventory was 32.7 tons (-1), and social inventory was 81.2 tons (+3.5). The supply is strong, demand is weak, and the valuation is high [13] 3.6 Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price and futures price of styrene both increased, and the basis strengthened [15] - **Supply and Demand**: The cost side still has support, the BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period, with large upward repair space. The supply side has increasing production starts, and the port inventory has been continuously increasing significantly. At the end of the seasonal off - season, the demand side's overall operating rate of three S products has been rising [15][16] 3.7 Polyolefins 3.7.1 Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polyethylene increased [18] - **Supply and Demand**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost side has support. The overall inventory is declining from a high level, and the demand side's agricultural film raw material procurement has started, with the overall operating rate stabilizing at a low level [18] 3.7.2 Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polypropylene decreased [19] - **Supply and Demand**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the production start is expected to gradually recover. The downstream demand operating rate is fluctuating at a low level. There is high inventory pressure in the context of weak supply and demand [19] 3.8 PX, PTA, and MEG 3.8.1 PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 114 yuan to 6958 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 17 dollars to 854 dollars [21] - **Supply and Demand**: The PX load is at a high level, and there are many unexpected short - term maintenance of downstream PTA. However, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to maintain low inventory [21] 3.8.2 PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 82 yuan to 4860 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 120 yuan/ton to 4810 yuan [23] - **Supply and Demand**: The PTA load decreased by 4.8% to 71.6%. The downstream load increased by 0.6% to 90%. The supply is in a de - stocking pattern, and the processing fee is expected to be repaired [23] 3.8.3 MEG - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract fell 4 yuan to 4473 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 4 yuan to 4511 yuan [24] - **Supply and Demand**: The MEG load increased by 6.2% to 73.2%. The downstream load increased by 0.6% to 90%. The port inventory decreased by 0.6 tons to 54.7 tons. The fundamentals are expected to turn from strong to weak, and there is downward pressure on the medium - term valuation [24]
黑色壹周谈 反内卷交易尘埃落地? 淡旺季交接何去何从?
2025-08-21 15:05
黑色壹周谈 反内卷交易尘埃落地? 淡旺季交接何去何从? 20250821 摘要 黑色产业链反内卷溢价已基本出清,多晶硅、碳酸锂等前期强势商品亦 步入预期调整期,需关注四季度钢材需求能否提振供需,若需求不及预 期,或将面临震荡下行风险。 铁矿石近期表现出较强抗跌性,但需深入分析其背后逻辑,若钢材预期 不佳,铁水高位能否维持存疑。煤炭方面,产量核查及阅兵后产量恢复 情况,以及海运煤和蒙煤进口量快速回升,均需密切关注。 焦煤市场核心驱动力在于政策调控,若不实施限产,产量或将继续回升, 叠加海运煤和蒙煤增量,可能导致供需过剩。目前焦煤中下游库存较高, 持货意愿变化值得关注,政策态度或对价格形成一定指导。 动力煤日耗逐步见顶,进口量持续改善,国内供应逐步恢复至高位,总 库存开始累积,价格后续可能偏弱。需关注动力煤对焦炭的影响,以及 新疆超产问题。 钢材库存基数低,旺季需求尚未验证,正处于逐步累库阶段。价格下跌 时,下游补库意愿增强,出口好转;价格上涨则面临下游抵抗及出口减 弱。需关注 9 月份库存累积情况,以判断负反馈是否出现。 Q&A 最近一两周商品市场和股市的表现如何?黑色产业链的情况如何? 最近一两周,商品市场和 ...
社保基金二季报持仓出炉,持有化工板块超60亿位列行业榜首
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-21 09:13
根据Wind数据统计,截至8月21日,社保基金持有129只股票,持股市值合计达332亿元。在个股选择上,持有市值前 十的个股为银行板块的常熟银行、PCB板块的鹏鼎控股、农业板块的海大以及化工龙头万华化学。 序号 从行业板块看,集中在化工、硬件设备、食品饮料、医药生物和银行。其中低位板块化工板块持股市值达60亿位列第 一。 名称 持股数量(万股)-本期 持股市值(万元)-本期 Wind行业 1常熟银行27779.13 204732.18 银行2鹏鼎控股4301.00 137760.98 硬件设备3海大集团2103.44 123240.26 食品饮料4万华 化学2120.99 115084.84 化工5信维通信3700.00 82880.00 硬件设备6藏格矿业1812.00 77318.04 化工7涪陵电力8169.94 75163.43 公用事业Ⅱ8华东医药1758.97 70992.21 医疗设备与服务9思源电气935.74 68224.45 电气设备10华工科技 1437.52 67577.86 硬件设备 近期化工板块再起攻势。成份股方面,今日钛白粉、氮肥、钾肥、聚氨酯等板块部分个股涨幅居前,中核钛白涨停 ...
白酒板块午盘微涨贵州茅台上涨0.7%
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-14 06:05
Group 1 - The core index of Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.20% to 3690.88 points on August 14 [1] - The liquor sector closed at 2231.73 points, with a slight increase of 0.06%, and 17 liquor stocks experienced gains, with JiuGuiJiu leading at 3.24% [1] - Individual stock performance included Kweichow Moutai closing at 1430.04 CNY per share, up 0.70%; Wuliangye at 123.46 CNY, up 0.22%; Shanxi Fenjiu at 188.95 CNY, up 0.46%; and Luzhou Laojiao at 125.80 CNY [1] Group 2 - Guotai Junan Securities highlighted that the inventory cycle is fundamentally about the rebalancing of supply and demand, indicating that the bottoming process requires passing through inventory bottom, performance bottom, and channel profit bottom in that order [1]
白酒板块午盘微涨 贵州茅台上涨0.7%
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-08-14 05:37
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of the liquor sector, particularly high-end liquor stocks, amidst a broader market context, indicating a potential recovery in the industry by 2026 [1] Market Performance - On August 14, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.20% to 3690.88 points - The liquor sector closed at 2231.73 points, up 0.06%, with 17 liquor stocks increasing in value, led by Jiu Gui Jiu with a rise of 3.24% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Kweichow Moutai closed at 1430.04 CNY per share, up 0.70% - Wuliangye closed at 123.46 CNY per share, up 0.22% - Shanxi Fenjiu closed at 188.95 CNY per share, up 0.46% - Luzhou Laojiao closed at 125.80 CNY per share, up 0.03% - Yanghe Brewery closed at 70.25 CNY per share, up 1.99% [1] Industry Analysis - Guotai Junan Securities notes that the inventory cycle is fundamentally about the rebalancing of supply and demand - The analysis suggests that the industry is currently at the channel bottom, moving towards the performance bottom and inventory bottom - It is predicted that the industry will likely confirm the performance bottom and inventory bottom by 2026, which may relieve pressure on the sector [1]
纺织品、服装与奢侈品:摸象系列之四:从国内库存周期复盘看品牌服饰投资机会
Changjiang Securities· 2025-08-10 13:44
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the textile, apparel, and luxury goods industry [12]. Core Insights - The inventory cycle is a significant phenomenon in economic operations, reflecting changes in market supply and demand relationships and companies' adaptability to market environments. The cycle typically consists of four stages: proactive restocking, passive accumulation, proactive destocking, and passive destocking. The transition from proactive destocking to proactive restocking is expected to catalyze stock prices and valuation levels for brand companies [3][6]. - The textile and apparel industry generally experiences a cycle of destocking to restocking or accumulation lasting 1-3 years. Currently, the accumulation phase has persisted for over a year. With stable retail growth and favorable policies, it is anticipated that the industry will enter a destocking phase by Q3 2025, leading to potential upward movement in stock prices and valuations [8][9]. Summary by Sections Inventory Cycle Overview - The inventory cycle can be divided into four stages: proactive restocking, passive accumulation, proactive destocking, and passive destocking. Key indicators include GDP growth, apparel retail growth, and inventory year-on-year (yoy) changes, which reflect demand conditions and inventory trends [6][20]. - The report identifies four notable destocking to restocking phases from 2012 to present: Q4 2014 to Q1 2016, Q3 2017 to Q1 2019, Q2 2020 to Q4 2022, and Q1 2023 to Q1 2025 [23][26]. Current Inventory Cycle Status - The current inventory situation is relatively controllable, with significant inventory clearance achieved in 2023. Although retail performance has been weak since Q2 2024, overall inventory levels remain healthy. The future progress of the inventory cycle will depend on terminal retail performance [9][10]. - Retail levels are stable, with a reported 1.9% year-on-year increase in sales for clothing and footwear in June 2025. Despite some fluctuations, the retail sector is expected to improve gradually, particularly in H2 2025 [9][10]. Brand Performance and Market Outlook - The report highlights that the brand sector typically experiences a beta market phase during the late proactive destocking to passive destocking stages, correlating closely with retail growth trends. The retail sector is expected to stabilize in Q3 2024, with potential improvements in Q1 2025 as the base effects diminish [9][10]. - The sportswear sector is currently experiencing a weak beta market, with domestic brands expected to outperform international counterparts. The demand for functional and specialized products remains weak, leading brands to seek new market channels and product categories [10].
望远镜系列12之2025Q1财报总结:营收表现分化,终端需求待修复
Changjiang Securities· 2025-08-06 23:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the textile, apparel, and luxury goods industry [11]. Core Insights - Revenue performance in Q1 2025 shows divergence among brands, with On (+40%) and Adidas (+13%) performing well, while Nike (-7%) and Under Armour (-11%) face revenue declines due to weak demand and inventory adjustments [6][20]. - The cautious revenue guidance from key companies indicates a continuation of this divergent performance in upcoming quarters, with some brands canceling their full-year guidance [7][25]. - The industry is entering a replenishment phase, but weak end-consumer demand necessitates close monitoring of recovery trends [9][34]. Revenue Performance - In Q1 2025, On and Adidas exhibited strong revenue growth, while Nike and UA struggled with declines [6][18]. - The overall revenue growth rates varied significantly across regions, with North America and Greater China showing relative weakness [20][22]. Inventory Dynamics - The apparel industry has returned to a healthy inventory level but is now entering a replenishment phase, with some brands beginning to accumulate stock [8][9]. - Retailers' inventory-to-sales ratios are normal, but certain brands are still in a destocking phase, particularly Nike and VF [8][9]. Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the need to monitor the pace of consumer demand recovery, especially as the industry faces challenges from weak demand and inflationary pressures [9][34]. - Nike's gradual operational improvement may alleviate some negative pressures on the industry, suggesting potential for a rebound in the manufacturing sector [9][34].
海外观察:美国2025年7月非农数据,美国就业加速降温,降息转折是否显现?
Donghai Securities· 2025-08-03 13:15
Employment Data Summary - In July 2025, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000, significantly below the expected 104,000, with the previous month's figure revised down from 147,000 to 14,000, resulting in a total downward revision of 253,000 for May and June[6][7]. - The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, while the U6 unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 7.9%[6][8]. - Labor force participation rate declined for four consecutive months, dropping by 0.1 percentage points to 62.2%[5][8]. Wage Growth Insights - Private sector hourly wage growth increased from 0.2% to 0.3% month-over-month, with service sector wages rising from 0.2% to 0.4%[12]. - Retail sector hourly wage growth surged from 0.2% to 1.2%, attributed to increased hiring demand during the inventory replenishment cycle and seasonal summer effects[12]. Economic Implications - The significant downward revisions in employment data for May and June have eroded market confidence in U.S. economic data, shifting perceptions from resilient job growth to stagnation[7]. - The mixed signals of low job growth and high inflation present a dilemma for the Federal Reserve, complicating monetary policy decisions[9][12]. - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September rose sharply from 43.2% to 80.3% following the release of the July employment data[9].
招商宏观:从库存和关税因素看美铜价格波动
智通财经网· 2025-08-03 03:23
Core Viewpoint - The data from May 2025 indicates that the U.S. is entering an active destocking phase, with total inventory increasing by 2.62% year-on-year and total sales increasing by 3.30% year-on-year, both showing a decline from previous values [1][2]. Overall Inventory Cycle - In May, total U.S. inventory increased by 2.62% year-on-year, down from 3.15% previously, while total sales increased by 3.30% year-on-year, down from 3.68% [2]. - The U.S. is confirmed to be in an active destocking phase, with a significant import surge occurring from November 2024 to March 2025, and imports returning to normal levels in April and May 2025 [2]. - A short-term replenishment demand is expected in June and July 2025, but active destocking is anticipated to continue thereafter, with excess imports expected to be depleted by November 2025 [2]. U.S. Industry Inventory Cycle - Among 14 major industries in May, six are in active destocking, including upstream oil, natural gas, and consumer fuels, chemical products, midstream transportation, and downstream automotive and automotive parts, textiles, clothing, luxury goods, and food, beverages, and tobacco [3]. - Historical inventory levels show that construction materials, chemical products, metals and mining, paper and forestry products, and technology hardware and equipment have higher inventory levels compared to historical percentiles [3]. Upstream Inventory Trends - Oil, natural gas, and consumer fuels have been in active replenishment from July 2023 to May 2024, transitioning to active destocking by June 2024 and remaining in that phase until May 2025 [4]. - Chemical products are expected to transition from passive replenishment to active destocking by May 2025 [5]. - Construction materials and metals and mining are currently in passive replenishment, with a high likelihood of transitioning to active destocking in the future [6]. Midstream Inventory Trends - The transportation sector is likely in active destocking, while paper and forestry products, as well as electrical equipment and appliances, are in passive replenishment [7]. - Mechanical manufacturing has transitioned to active replenishment as of March 2025 [7]. Downstream Inventory Trends - The automotive and automotive parts sector is in active replenishment as of December 2024 [8]. - Household durable goods, textiles, clothing, luxury goods, food, beverages, and tobacco are in passive replenishment, with some expected to transition to active replenishment in April and May 2025 [8].
建筑行业2025年中期投资策略:资产质量改善有望与需求回暖共振,看好建筑板块下半年表现
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-01 10:45
Core Insights - The construction industry is expected to outperform the market in the second half of 2025, driven by improvements in asset quality and a potential recovery in demand [1][4] - Downstream demand remains weak, leading to accelerated balance sheet contraction among construction companies [1][4] - Infrastructure investment is anticipated to become a key driver for expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth [3][4] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In the first half of 2025, the total contract amount for new projects in the construction industry reached 25 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.5%, although still significantly lower than levels in 2022-2023 [1][30] - The industry is experiencing a decline in new orders and revenue, but signs of a profitability turning point are emerging as some local construction companies accelerate the collection of receivables and repay existing debts [1][4] Inventory Cycle Perspective - The construction industry is nearing the end of a "passive inventory replenishment" phase, characterized by a lagged response of inventory fluctuations to changes in downstream demand [2][77] - Since 2021, the industry has entered a phase of passive inventory accumulation due to prolonged project repayment cycles and a concentration of PPP projects transitioning to operational phases [2][82] Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment is seen as a critical measure to expand domestic demand and stabilize economic growth, especially in light of pressures on price indicators and the need for effective investment [3][4] - The government is expected to increase fiscal support for infrastructure projects, particularly in areas related to public welfare and energy security [3][4] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a positive outlook for the construction sector in the second half of 2025, suggesting that asset quality improvements will align with demand recovery [4] - Recommended stocks include Yaxiang Integration, Zhongyan Dadi, China Railway Construction, and others, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated recovery in infrastructure investment [4][8]