Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the chemical industry [4]. Core Insights - The global chemical competition landscape is being reshaped, with European and Japanese companies facing capacity exits due to high energy costs and environmental pressures, while Chinese companies are rapidly gaining market share due to significant cost advantages [1][15]. - The EU chemical capacity utilization rate has decreased from 75.6% in Q2 2025 to 74.6% in Q3 2025, significantly below the long-term average of 81.3% [2][31]. - China's chemical industry is characterized by high capital investment and R&D, leading to a strong cost advantage and enhanced global competitiveness [3][36]. Summary by Sections 1. Europe: Dual Dilemma of High Energy Costs and Environmental Pressure - European chemical companies are heavily reliant on natural gas, with over 40% of raw materials sourced from it, leading to increased production costs [20]. - The average wholesale electricity price in the EU rose by 30% year-on-year to $90 per megawatt-hour in H1 2025, expected to be twice that of the US and 1.5 times that of China [2][20]. - The EU's carbon emissions trading system (ETS) and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) are tightening regulations, further squeezing the competitiveness of European chemical products [23][29]. 2. China: Scale Effects and Cost Advantages of Super Factories - China leads globally in chemical capital expenditure and R&D, accounting for 47% and 32% of the global total, respectively [36][38]. - The production capacity of ethylene in China has doubled from 26.69 million tons in 2019 to 54.49 million tons in 2024, with import dependency decreasing from 8.8% to 5.0% [10]. - Major Chinese companies like Wanhua Chemical are expected to further reduce costs through technological upgrades and capacity expansions, enhancing their competitive edge [9][12]. 3. Domestic Chemical Core Assets Exhibit Strong Competitive Strength - The report highlights the increasing global influence of Chinese chemical companies, which are leveraging cost, scale, and technological advantages to expand their market presence [12]. - Key players in the industry include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and others, which are positioned to benefit from the ongoing industry consolidation and optimization [12].

Core Viewpoint - The basic chemical industry is expected to undergo structural optimization on the supply side, influenced by domestic policies emphasizing "anti-involution" and external factors such as rising raw material costs and capacity disruptions in Asia, leading to shutdowns or capacity exits among European and American chemical companies [1] Industry Summary - Domestic policies frequently mention "anti-involution" requirements, indicating a shift towards more sustainable and efficient practices within the chemical sector [1] - Rising raw material costs and capacity challenges in Asia are causing uncertainty in overseas supply, which is further exacerbated by geopolitical tensions [1] - China is leveraging its cost and technological advantages to fill gaps in the international supply chain, potentially reshaping the global chemical landscape [1] Company Summary - The chemical leader ETF (516220) tracks the segmented chemical index (000813), which selects listed companies involved in basic and specialty chemicals to reflect the overall performance of the chemical industry [1] - The segmented chemical index focuses on the chemical industry, covering multiple sub-industries and selecting representative companies to balance allocation and capture market dynamics and investment opportunities [1]

Group 1 - The chemical ETF (516020) showed stable performance with a 1.0% increase and a trading volume of 7.9557 million yuan, bringing the fund's total size to 2.865 billion yuan [1] - Key performing stocks included Chuanfa Longmang, Baofeng Energy, and Yanhai Co., with increases of 7.53%, 4.86%, and 2.93% respectively [1] - Conversely, stocks such as Lanxiao Technology, Duofluor, and Juhua Co. experienced declines of 1.71%, 1.54%, and 0.81% respectively [1] Group 2 - Linyi City has identified the fine chemical industry chain as one of its 13 key industry chains, focusing on the development of new fertilizers, rubber materials, and polyurethane materials [1] - The petrochemical industry is advancing digital transformation, with companies like Changqing Petrochemical optimizing production management through smart factory construction [1] - According to Donghai Securities, the global chemical landscape is shifting from "West declining to East rising," with 21 major chemical plants in Europe closing, while China's chemical industry is rapidly filling international supply chain gaps [1] Group 3 - Tianfeng Securities indicates that the basic chemical industry may be at a cyclical bottom, with a focus on supply and demand marginal changes [2] - Stable demand and globally dominated sub-industries include sucralose, pesticides, MDI, and amino acids, while domestically driven sub-industries include refrigerants, fertilizers, explosives, and dyes [2] - The hydrogen peroxide market is experiencing price increases due to concentrated maintenance and tight supply, while ammonium sulfate is rising due to international demand [2]