2026年1月7日，化工龙头ETF（516220.SH）收跌0.52%，主力资金（单笔成交额100万元以上）净流出 519.10万元，居可比基金前2。（数据来源：Wind） 与此同时，该基金最新成交量为1.44亿份，最新成交额达1.36亿元，居可比基金倒数前3。 化工龙头ETF（516220.SH），场外联接(A类：012730；C类：012731）。 拉长时间看，该基金近2天主力资金加速流出，合计流出625.83万元，居可比基金前2。（数据来源： Wind） ...

光大证券指出，基础化工、化学制品行业当前处于周期底部回升阶段，化工品价格指数有望止跌企 稳，行业整体进入底部蓄势期。在库存低位叠加需求逐步修复的背景下，下游企业补库将推动行业盈利 能力触底回升。化工行业PE估值历史分位数较高，PB估值接近2019年和2024年底部水平，显示行业仍 具较大上行空间。新兴应用领域如AI、OLED、机器人等终端市场的高景气度成为行业新增长引擎，半 导体材料受算力需求拉动持续扩张，光刻胶、湿电子化学品等核心材料处于"需求扩张+国产替代加 速"共振阶段。石油化工方面，"三桶油"在油价下行期盈利韧性凸显；基础化工子行业龙头凭借规模和 技术优势，有望在产能结构性优化中持续提升市占率。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 化工龙头ETF（516220）跟踪的是细分化工指数（000813），该指数从中国化工行业中精选涉及基 础化学品、特种材料等多个子领域的优质上市公司证券作为指 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a continuous pre-holiday rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving ten consecutive gains, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index both rose over 0.5% during the session [1][13] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][13] A-share Outlook - Several favorable factors are expected to support the performance of A-shares in the coming year, including a marginal improvement in manufacturing driven by "anti-involution," global liquidity easing, and a low interest rate environment encouraging institutional and individual investors to enter the market [1][13] - Investors are advised to focus on broad-based products like the CSI A500 ETF (159338) that bundle leading companies across various industries, and consider a "barbell" strategy combining technology and dividends as a satellite strategy [1][13] Gold and Precious Metals - The gold ETF (518800) fell by 2.05% due to overnight market fluctuations, although long-term support for gold prices remains strong from factors such as interest rate cuts, de-dollarization, and geopolitical tensions [3][16] - Recent volatility in precious metal prices was influenced by a significant rise in silver prices, which briefly surpassed $84 per ounce, marking a nearly 10% increase from the previous week's closing price [3][16] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised silver futures margins by 25% to address recent volatility, potentially forcing leveraged traders to partially liquidate positions [4][17] Robotics Sector - The robotics sector saw a notable increase, with the Robotics Industry ETF (159551) rising by 3.20% and the Industrial Mother Machine ETF (159667) increasing by 2.23% [6][18] - The growth in this sector is attributed to robotics being the ultimate carrier of AI, with expectations of significant developments in the U.S.-China competition landscape [6][19] - Tesla's upcoming V3 version is anticipated to evolve towards lightweight, compact, and highly integrated designs, with mass production expected to commence in Q1 next year [6][19] Chemical Industry - The chemical sector performed well, with the Chemical Leaders ETF (516220) rising by 1.79% [7][22] - PX prices have been increasing due to tight supply driven by rising demand for upstream toluene/xylene and the impact of downstream polyester filament and BOPET [8][22] - The polyester industry chain shows strong potential for "anti-involution," supported by nearing capacity limits, sustained demand growth, and high market share among leading companies [9][23]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 化工龙头ETF（516220）跟踪的是细分化工指数（000813），该指数从市场中选取涉及有机化学品、无 机化学品、化肥与农药等细分领域的代表性企业作为指数样本，以反映化工行业相关上市公司的整体表 现。细分化工指数聚焦于化学工业领域，通过配置不同子行业的龙头企业，全面展现中国化工产业的多 样化结构和成长潜力。 天风证券指出，2026年三代制冷剂生产配额为79.8万吨，较2025年仅增加5963吨，内用和出口配额分别 增长4502吨和1461吨，整体变化有限。供给端高度集中，行业生产配额CR6达90%，内用配额CR6为 88%，头部企业包括巨化股份（市占率37.6%）、三美股份（15.2%）等。配额调整中，R134a因新能源 汽车需求拉动增加3242吨，R245fa作为绿色替代品增发2918吨，而R32等前期高价品种调整谨慎。企业 根据动态供需理性调整配额，行业维持紧平衡状态。此外，永和股份是主要调增企业，其R32和R134a 配额分别增至7611吨和1.3万吨。 ...

化工龙头ETF（516220）跟踪的是细分化工指数（000813），该指数聚焦于化工行业内的细分领域，选 取从基础化学品到特种材料等多个子行业中具有代表性的企业作为成分股，以反映化工行业多样化发展 的整体趋势与市场表现，体现了化工行业龙头企业的综合动态。 每日经济新闻 长江证券指出，周期是化工行业的固有属性，随着供需的博弈，尤其是供给的周期波动，化工行业经历 着数年一轮的周期往复。目前，化工板块整体景气处于底部。化工是全球贸易品，需求与全球经济相 关，预计全球经济平稳增长带来消费逐步增加。供给端，外资退后，中资扩产趋缓+反内卷深化。在供 需趋势演变拉动下，化工行业有望走出底部，迎来拐点。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 ...

华泰证券指出，伴随2025年6月以来行业资本开支增速显著下降，叠加"反内卷"政策助力供给端协同及 落后产能出清，大宗化工品有望逐步复苏。供给侧方面，25年1-10月化学原料与化学制品业固定资产完 成额累计同比-7.9%，行业资本开支意愿降低，供给侧拐点临近。需求侧方面，25年11月国内PMI为 49.2，化工品需求引擎由地产链逐步切换至消费品、大基建、新兴科技等领域，且国内多数化工品具备 全球成本优势，出口亚非拉等增量需求支撑下，26年行业景气有望迎来上行。当前CCPI-原料价差处于 2012年以来最低分位数，行业盈利已处底部，在供给优化及全球需求修复驱动下，大宗化工品盈利或迎 改善。化学制品领域，头部企业出海有利于依托制造优势获取份额提升，避开国内竞争性内卷；合成生 物技术推动精细化工降本，氨基酸在豆粕替代趋势下渗透率持续提升，海外农药库存低位叠加供给优 化，菊酯等品种周期回升有望带动业绩改善。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 化工龙头ETF（516220）跟踪的是细分化工指数（000813），该指数从市场中选取涉及农药、化肥、涂 料等细分行业的代表性企业证券作为指数样本。这些成分股主要具有较高市场影响力和成长 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the chemical sector is expected to maintain a high level of prosperity, as evidenced by the recent performance of the chemical leader ETF (516220), which rose over 1.2% [1] - The current valuation of the basic chemical industry is at a historical mid-high level, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.44 times (72.41% historical percentile) and a price-to-book ratio of 2.24 times (55.53% historical percentile) [1] - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has continued to rise due to tight supply and demand, with an average price increase of 65.85% month-on-month in November, driven by full-capacity operations of leading companies and delayed new capacity coming online [1] Group 2 - The price of methionine has decreased by 9.27% due to expectations of increased competition from new entrants in 2026 [1] - In the medium to long term, policy-driven demand recovery and supply optimization are expected to benefit the performance of leading companies, with significant growth potential in emerging fields such as semiconductor materials and new energy materials [1] - The chemical leader ETF (516220) tracks a sub-index of the chemical industry (000813), which selects listed companies involved in various chemical sub-industries such as pesticides, fertilizers, and coatings, reflecting the overall performance of related securities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing "anti-involution" policy is driving the elimination of outdated production capacity, leading to a narrowing decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) year-on-year [1] Industry Policy - The "anti-involution" initiative is promoting the clearance of outdated production capacity, which is positively impacting the PPI [1] - Key industry capacity governance is contributing to the improved PPI performance [1] Sector Focus - Investment recommendations include focusing on the textile and apparel chain, agricultural chemical chain, export chain, and sectors benefiting from the "anti-involution" policy [1] - The agricultural chemical chain shows stable demand, supported by an increase in cultivated area for fertilizers and a rise in pesticide usage due to the penetration of genetically modified crops [1] Macroeconomic Outlook - Expectations of improved supply-demand dynamics in crude oil are strengthening the bottom support for oil prices [1] - Coal prices are expected to experience long-term bottom fluctuations [1] - The cost of natural gas imports may decline [1] Chemical Industry Index - The chemical sector ETF (516220) tracks a specialized chemical index (000813), which selects listed companies involved in chemical products, chemical fibers, fertilizers, and pesticides [1] - This index reflects the overall performance of various sub-markets within the chemical industry and has high industry concentration and representativeness [1] - It serves as an effective reference tool for investors monitoring developments in the chemical industry [1]

Group 1 - A-shares fluctuated around the 4000-point mark, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4018.60 points, up 0.53%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 13427.61 points, up 0.18%. Over 3300 stocks rose, with a total trading volume of nearly 2.2 trillion yuan, indicating increased market activity [1] - The chemical sector performed notably, with the Wind Chemical Index rising 1.19% to reach a new high. Most sub-industries and leading stocks saw widespread gains, driven by supply-side adjustments and industry self-discipline, which boosted expectations for a cyclical rebound. The industry cycle's low point has been largely identified, presenting "double-hit" opportunities for leading companies [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index saw an expanded gain of 1.34%, with the pharmaceutical sector showing relative strength. The Hang Seng Technology Index remains significantly undervalued compared to global peers, and with improving southbound capital flows, it presents mid-term value. Technology stocks are recommended as flexible positions [1] Group 2 - Gold prices reached 4080 on COMEX, driven by a decline in the US consumer confidence index and worsening economic outlook due to government shutdowns and rising prices. The easing of tariff risks between China and the US also supports gold prices. In the medium to long term, factors such as the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts and global de-dollarization trends are favorable for gold [2] - Dividend assets continue to perform strongly amid increased market volatility and a shift in risk appetite. Dividend stocks are seen as a defensive anchor, particularly sensitive to resource-heavy sectors like coal and oil. In the short term, dividend strategies are expected to provide better risk-adjusted returns during market fluctuations [2]

Group 1 - Chemical concept stocks showed strong performance in early trading, with Hualu Hengsheng rising over 8%, Yuntianhua up over 6%, and Wanhua Chemical increasing over 3% [1] - Related chemical ETFs rose over 2% due to market influence [1] Group 2 - Specific ETF performance includes: - Chemical ETF (code: 159870) at 0.774, up 2.79% - Leading Chemical ETF (code: 516220) at 0.855, up 2.52% - Another Chemical ETF (code: 516020) at 0.822, up 2.62% - Chemical 50 ETF (code: 516120) at 0.836, up 2.45% [2] - Analysts suggest that chemical product profitability may have bottomed out, with fundamental downward risks fully released, indicating potential for valuation and profit recovery for leading chemical stocks [2] - The industry is expected to experience elasticity due to supply shortages, emphasizing the importance of focusing on upward demand certainty and the value reassessment of high-dividend chemical resource stocks [2]