全球地缘政治持续动荡，当地时间1月3日凌晨，美国对委内瑞拉境内发动空袭，美国总统特朗普随后证 实，美方已成功实施大规模打击，委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其夫人已被抓获并带离该国，随后（北京时间 4日零时），将在海湖庄园举行新闻发布会，公布对委内瑞拉行动细节。 风险提示及免责条款 据央视新闻，当地时间1月3日，美国总统特朗普称，美方已成功对委内瑞拉实施打击，抓获委内瑞拉总 统马杜罗及其夫人，并带离委内瑞拉。特朗普称，美国已成功对委内瑞拉及其领导人马杜罗总统实施了 大规模打击，马杜罗及其妻子已被抓获并乘飞机离开该国。此次行动是与美国执法部门联合进行的。 据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普3日接受福克斯新闻台电话采访时表示，马杜罗夫妇目前在一艘美国军 舰上，他们将在纽约被起诉。特朗普还公布更多关于美军抓捕马杜罗的细节，表示他实时观看了美国特 种部队抓捕马杜罗的行动，称就像看了一场"电视秀"，看到了"每一个细节"。特朗普称，美国特种部队 从一个守卫森严的"堡垒"中带走马杜罗。特朗普还称，不排除美方对委内瑞拉进行第二波打击。 据央视新闻，美国总统特朗普对美国媒体称，美国将深度介入委内瑞拉的石油产业。特朗普称，将评 估"是否由委内瑞拉 ...

Core Insights - Gold prices have surged past $4000 per ounce, reaching a historical high in quarterly demand, with significant investment interest driving this trend [1][3] - The World Gold Council reports that global gold demand is projected to reach 1313 tons in Q3 2025, a 3% year-on-year increase, amounting to $146 billion, marking the strongest single-quarter record [1] - Investment demand for gold has skyrocketed by 47% year-on-year, accounting for 55% of total net demand, indicating a strong shift towards gold as an investment vehicle [1] Market Dynamics - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which have lowered the opportunity cost of holding gold, leading to increased capital inflow into the gold market as a safe haven [3] - Geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and instability in the Middle East, have contributed to market volatility, prompting investors to seek refuge in gold [3] - Data shows that net inflows into gold ETFs have doubled year-on-year in Q3, reflecting a growing trend among retail investors to engage in gold trading [3] Investment Strategies - Historical data suggests that gold prices typically experience short-term corrections after surpassing $4000, but central banks globally continue to accumulate gold, with the People's Bank of China increasing its reserves for nine consecutive months [3] - Retail investors have two main strategies: investing in paper gold with a minimum entry of approximately 520 yuan per gram or opting for gold ETFs starting from a minimum investment of 10 yuan [3] - The narrative around gold has shifted as traditional investments like real estate and stocks become less reliable, positioning gold as a fundamental asset for wealth preservation [3]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices are currently fluctuating around $3,334, with a slight decline of 0.3% on August 21, closing at $3,338.45 per ounce, while December futures fell 0.2% to $3,386.50 [1] - The rise of the US dollar index by 0.45% to a two-week high of 98.60 has made gold more expensive for overseas buyers, contributing to the decline in gold prices [1] - The 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 3.4 basis points to 4.329%, while the 2-year yield rose by 4.8 basis points to 3.792%, indicating a slight steepening of the yield curve and a reduction in rate cut expectations [1] - The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices all experienced declines, with notable weakness in retail stocks like Walmart impacting market sentiment [1] Economic Data Impact - The complexity of US economic data has increased uncertainty in the gold market, with rising initial jobless claims and weak manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia Fed survey suggesting labor market risks, prompting some investors to seek refuge in gold [2] - Conversely, unexpected increases in existing home sales and accelerated business activity in August, along with manufacturing orders reaching an 18-month high, have supported the rise of the dollar and US Treasury yields [2] Federal Reserve Divergence - Internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve add volatility to gold prices, with various Fed officials expressing differing views on the necessity and timing of rate cuts [5] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic expects only one rate cut this year but acknowledges significant economic uncertainty, while other officials emphasize the need to be cautious about inflation and the potential negative impacts of rate cuts [5] - This divergence reflects the Fed's challenges in balancing a slowing labor market against rising inflation pressures, complicating the policy outlook for investors [5] Geopolitical Factors - Global geopolitical tensions, such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and new US sanctions on Iran, are providing potential support for gold prices as they increase global uncertainty [6] - Analysts note that the US credit rating considerations are influenced by trade policies, which may also impact future ratings and support gold prices [6] - Market attention is focused on Fed Chair Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, which could reveal the Fed's policy direction and directly affect gold's future trajectory [6] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices are maintaining a small range, indicating indecision in the market, with traders advised to monitor for a breakout direction [8] - The short-term trend shows a narrowing range between $3,320 and $3,380, with traders likely to operate within this triangle until a decisive movement occurs [8] Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to operate within the converging triangle of $3,320 to $3,380, with a stop loss of $10 and a target of $20 to $30 [9] - Traders are advised to pay attention to Powell's speech at 22:00 for potential market-moving insights [9]