美国总统特朗普上周日（12月28日）表示，在佛罗里达州与乌克兰总统泽连斯基会晤后，旨在结束俄乌冲突的谈判已取得进展，但特朗普承认双方在领土问 题上仍存在棘手分歧。黄金的避险溢价面临回吐压力。特朗普在会谈结束后表示："我认为我们确实离（达成协议）近了很多，也许非常接近了。"泽连斯基 在讲话中称此次和平谈判是一次"真正伟大的讨论"，其中美乌安全保障条款已"100%达成一致"，不过特朗普在被问及该部分提案时给出了略为保守的评 估。泽连斯基说："我们同意安全保障是达成持久和平的关键里程碑。"此外，乌克兰总统表示，特朗普将于下个月主持乌克兰及欧洲领导人会议，以继续推 进和平计划的制定。 当被记者问及哪些问题尚未解决时，特朗普表示症结在于"领土"。特朗普说："部分领土已被占领，有些领土可能尚存争议，但在未来数月内也可能被掌 控，现在达成协议对你们更有利。"特朗普上周日早些时候在其社交媒体上发文称，在与泽连斯基会谈前，他与普京进行了一次"良好且富有成效的电话沟 通"。特朗普上周日在记者会上表示，计划在会谈结束后再次致电普京。这场在特朗普海湖庄园举行的高风险对话，正值结束俄乌冲突努力的关键时刻。 上周日早些时候，克里姆林宫一 ...

Group 1 - Muxi Co., Ltd. has been listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [1] - The U.S. stock market showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones down 0.62% and the Nasdaq up 0.23% [1] - Major tech stocks had varied movements, with Tesla reaching a record closing high, up 3.07% [1] Group 2 - International oil prices saw a significant decline, with WTI crude oil futures dropping 2.73% to $55.27 per barrel [2] - Gold prices increased by 0.2% to $4310.21 per ounce, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar [2] - China's domestic demand contributed 71% to economic growth in the first three quarters, indicating a stable overall performance [2] Group 3 - The Ministry of Commerce announced a final ruling on anti-dumping investigations against EU pork imports, with tax rates set between 4.9% and 19.8% [3] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000 in November, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since 2021 [3] Group 4 - Dongjie Intelligent is planning to acquire controlling stakes in Aobo Intelligent, leading to a stock suspension [4] - Xiechuang Data intends to invest up to 9 billion yuan in server procurement for cloud computing services [4] - Zhongke Electric plans to invest approximately 7 billion yuan in a project for producing 300,000 tons of lithium-ion battery anode materials [4]

Market Overview - During the National Day holiday, global financial markets faced multiple risk events, including the U.S. government shutdown entering its eighth day and political changes in Japan and France impacting the markets [1] - U.S. stock markets continued to rise, with major indices reaching record highs, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts [1] - The dollar index reached a two-month high, while the Japanese yen fell to its lowest level since mid-February [1][2] Commodity Market - LME copper prices hit a 16-month high due to supply concerns, reaching $10,815 per ton, influenced by operational disruptions in major mines [3] - COMEX gold prices surpassed $4,000 per ounce for the first time, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainties [6] - Oil prices fell to a four-month low, with concerns over oversupply and OPEC's decision to maintain a modest production increase of 137,000 barrels per day [7][17] Agricultural Commodities - CBOT soybean futures rebounded after hitting a seven-week low, supported by lower yield forecasts and expectations of improved demand [9][10] Central Bank Insights - The Federal Reserve noted increased risks in the employment market while remaining vigilant about inflation, with discussions on potential interest rate adjustments ongoing [11][12] - The New Zealand central bank unexpectedly cut rates by 50 basis points, indicating concerns over economic weakness [13]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current price of spot gold is around $3990 per ounce, having reached a historical high of $3990.90 per ounce, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing demand for safe-haven assets due to the U.S. government shutdown [1][3] - Despite a recent strengthening of the U.S. dollar, the market anticipates two more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, which may support gold prices [1] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown and escalating trade and geopolitical tensions continue to sustain demand for gold, limiting its downside potential [1] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is in a bullish trend, with expectations of further price increases, and the recommended trading strategy is to buy on dips [3] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is trading around $62.15 per barrel, with a recent rebound influenced by OPEC+'s decision to increase production modestly by 137,000 barrels per day starting in November, which is below market expectations [4] - The market is currently experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with predictions of oversupply, leading to cautious sentiment among investors [4] - Technical indicators suggest a bearish medium-term outlook for oil prices, with expectations of continued downward movement, while short-term trends may show some upward corrections [5]

Group 1 - Gold prices are currently trading around $3,640 per ounce, having declined due to profit-taking and market assessment of the Federal Reserve's stance on further rate cuts [1][3] - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, with expectations of additional cuts throughout the remainder of the year to address signs of a weakening labor market [3][4] - Gold has performed well in low-interest-rate environments, rising nearly 39% year-to-date, with a significant increase in Swiss gold exports to China, which surged by 254% in August compared to July [4] Group 2 - The U.S. job market is showing signs of softness, with initial jobless claims decreasing but overall labor supply and demand declining, leading to concerns about the economic outlook [1][4] - The market anticipates a further reduction in interest rates, with investors expecting an additional 44.2 basis points cut by the end of 2025 [3]

Market Overview - Gold prices increased last Friday, approaching record highs, as signs of a weak U.S. labor market strengthened expectations for the Federal Reserve's first rate cut of the year this week [1] - Spot gold closed at $3648.55 per ounce, up 0.4%, nearing the record high of $3673.95, marking the fourth consecutive week of gains [1] - December futures for U.S. gold rose 0.3%, settling at $3686.40 [1] Economic Indicators - Recent data showed a significant increase in initial jobless claims in the U.S., alongside weak non-farm payroll data, with employment positions revised down by 910,000 over the past 12 months, indicating a cooling economic momentum [1] - The consumer price index in August recorded the largest month-on-month increase in seven months, but investors are focusing more on labor market weakness than persistent inflation when forming interest rate expectations [1] Federal Reserve Expectations - The federal funds futures market fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut at the September 17 meeting, with bets on a potential 50 basis point cut [1] - President Trump anticipates that the Federal Reserve will implement "significant rate cuts" [1] Technical Analysis - The gold market is currently in a bullish trend, with short-term high consolidation expected [2] - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3600 and $3500; a drop below $3600 could indicate a shift in market strength, while a breach of $3500 may signal a change in the bullish-bearish trend [4] - The H4 timeframe shows a more defined consolidation pattern, with a trading range expected between $3615 and $3660 for early this week [4] Domestic Gold Market - The domestic gold market is also experiencing high-level consolidation, with support levels set at 830 for Shanghai gold and 820 for Rongtong gold [5] - The market is expected to maintain a bullish trend in the early part of the week, with potential for a downturn following the Federal Reserve's rate decision [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in gold prices is driven by weaker-than-expected U.S. PPI data, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and ongoing geopolitical tensions, indicating a new bull market cycle for gold [3][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - As of September 11, spot gold is trading around $3,642 per ounce, having reached a record high of $3,673.95 on September 10, reflecting a 0.6% increase [1]. - Year-to-date, gold prices have surged over 39%, with market expectations of a 90% probability for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. PPI unexpectedly fell month-on-month in August, influenced by a decline in service prices, which supports the case for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][4]. - Attention is now focused on the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which will be crucial in determining the Federal Reserve's policy direction [3][4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - The combination of weak economic data and expectations of multiple rate cuts before the end of the year is bolstering confidence in gold investments [4]. - The recent soft non-farm payroll report suggests a cooling labor market, further reinforcing the market's belief in the need for looser monetary policy [4].

Group 1 - Gold prices continued to rise, reaching a record high of $3578.29 per ounce, driven by weak U.S. employment data and strong safe-haven demand amid global uncertainties [1][3] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is at 96.6%, with only a 3.4% chance of maintaining current rates [1] - Following the release of employment data, traders increased their bets on a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve from 92% to 98% [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated that economic activity in most U.S. districts has shown little to no change, with consumer spending remaining flat or declining due to wages not keeping pace with rising prices [4] - Inflation was reported across all districts, with ten districts noting moderate or subdued inflation, while two reported strong input price growth [4] - Tariff-related price increases were mentioned as a significant factor affecting input prices in many districts [4]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current price of spot gold is around $3415.22 per ounce, having reached a five-week high due to a weaker dollar and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [2][4] - Gold prices increased by 0.6% to $3416.14 per ounce, marking the highest level since July 23, driven by concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve [2] - The market is currently in a wide-ranging oscillation phase, with a potential shift towards a trend formation as the oscillation cycle extends [2][4] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil futures fell by 0.46% to $67.74 per barrel, while WTI crude oil dropped by 0.56% to $63.79 per barrel, ending the previous day's gains [5] - U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 2.4 million barrels, exceeding market expectations, but concerns about seasonal demand decline post-Labor Day are prevalent [5] - The oil market is expected to remain in a $60-$65 per barrel range, influenced by Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and India's energy policies [5][6] Group 3: Technical Analysis - For gold, the short-term trading strategy suggests focusing on buying on dips and selling on rebounds, with key resistance at $3430-$3440 and support at $3400-$3390 [4] - WTI crude oil shows a potential support level around $63, with resistance at $65-$66; a breakout above $66 could lead to a rise towards $68 [6] - The overall market sentiment for both gold and oil indicates a cautious approach, emphasizing the importance of risk management in trading strategies [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent dovish remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have significantly influenced the gold market, leading to a rebound in gold prices and a decline in the US dollar, creating a favorable macro environment for precious metals [1][10]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices experienced a strong rebound, rising 1% to $3,371.78 per ounce, with US futures also increasing by 1.1% to $3,418.50 per ounce following Powell's speech [5]. - The US dollar index fell by 0.96% to 97.66 points, enhancing the attractiveness of gold for investors holding other currencies [5]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool indicated that the expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut in September surged from 75% to 85% after Powell's remarks [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Powell acknowledged increasing downside risks in the labor market and described the current labor market as a "strange balance," which may necessitate a shift in the Fed's policy stance [3]. - The yield on US two-year Treasury bonds dropped by 10.2 basis points to 3.69%, while the ten-year yield fell by 7.2 basis points to 4.259%, indicating strong expectations for short-term rate cuts [7]. - The yield curve steepened, with the gap between two-year and ten-year yields widening to 58.1 basis points, the steepest since mid-July [7]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - There is a strong bullish sentiment among Wall Street analysts and retail investors regarding gold, with 62% of analysts expecting gold prices to rise in the coming week [9]. - Despite low physical demand for gold in Asia, the overall market sentiment has turned optimistic, suggesting a potential breakout from the trading range observed over the past four months [9]. - Analysts believe that Powell's dovish stance and the potential for rate cuts could lead to gold reaching new historical highs by the end of the year [9].