十一长假期间，全球金融市场风险事件不断，美国政府停摆进入第八天，日本和法国政治变动冲击市 场；美国政府关门，非农数据推迟发布；OPEC 11月供应量增幅与10月持平，为13.7万桶/日，增产幅度低 于预期；美联储9月认为就业市场风险上升，仍对通胀保持警惕。 美国股市继续高歌猛进，三大股指再创纪录新高，市场对降息的预期仍在支撑股市；日本股市飙升至历 史新高，高市早苗当选自民党党kui激发宽松想像；香港股市创逾四年新高，科技股继续发力。美元指数 触及逾两个月高位，日元兑美元触及2月中旬以来最低。 大宗商品方面，LME期铜创下16个月新高，受助于供应紧张；美国期金突破4000美元再创纪录新高，因 美联储降息押注和全球不确定性；油价跌至四个月低点，市场担忧供应过剩及OPEC 增产；美豆期货触底 反弹，一度跌破10美元关口。 **美元升至逾两个月高位** 美元指数在十一期间表现强劲，触及逾两个月高位。日元兑美元触及2月中旬以来最低，对日本增加财政 支出的担忧加剧，欧元则因法国政局的不确定性而下跌。自高市早苗周六当选日本执政党自民党总裁以 来，日元持续走软。高市早苗预计将出任日本首相，她承诺通过积极财政支出来提振经济，并 ...

来源：贺氏博生HBS6282 投资市场永远有四个层次：保住本金，控制风险，赚取收益，长期稳定持续赢利。不要因为一天的输赢定结果，赚钱是偶然还是必然，是凭真功夫还是凭运 气，在市场上能活着的肯定是最终能够长期持续赢利的投资者。交易就是一个好的习惯，严格执行你的交易计划。一次严谨的交易=良好的心态控制＋正确 的仓位控制＋过硬的技术功力，合作从不强买强卖。机会是留给有准备的人，一次正确的选择大于百倍努力， 你相信老师，我给你一个满意收益，你刚好 需要，我刚好专业！ 黄金最新行情趋势分析： 黄金消息面解析：周三（北京时间10月8日）亚市早盘，现货黄金交投于3990美元/盎司附近，现货黄金周三触及3990.90美元/盎司的历史高位，12月交割的 美国期金一度升至4014.6美元/盎司，受助于美联储本月晚些时候降息的预期和美国政府陷于停摆推动的持续避险需求。周二（10月7日）现货黄金在触及历 史新高3977.25美元/盎司后小幅回落，不过在有利的基本面背景下，任何实质性回调似乎都难以实现。美元已连续两个交易日走强，然而，由于市场普遍预 期美联储将在年内再实施两次降息，美元的这波上涨缺乏坚定的看涨信念，这或许将继续为无息黄 ...

黄金在低利率环境和不确定时期往往表现良好，今年迄今已上涨近39%。与此同时，数据显示，8 月份 瑞士对中国的黄金出口比7月份猛增 254%。美联储周三将其政策利率下调25个基点，并暗示将在今年 剩余时间内稳步降低借贷成本，以应对就业市场疲软的迹象。美国上周初请失业金人数有所下降，扭转 了此前一周大幅上升的趋势，但随着劳动力供求均减少，就业市场已经趋软。 美联储主席鲍威尔周三强调，就业市场疲软是当前的政策重点，并暗示未来政策会议可能继续降息。我 们正在寻找支撑经济增长的因素，以及对高估值的合理解释，而降息前景正好提供了这种支持。此次降 息预计将进一步推动华尔街近期的上涨行情，这波行情受货币政策宽松预期及人工智能相关股票交易回 暖提振。伦敦证券交易所集团(LSEG)的数据显示，投资者预计到2025年底将再降息约44.2个基点。 周五（9月19日）亚市早盘，现货黄金交投于3640美元/盎司附近，黄金价格周四在获利回吐中下跌，市 场对美联储进一步降息的立场进行了评估；美国上周初请失业金人数有所下降，但随着劳动力供求均减 少，就业市场已经趋软，交易商仍对美国经济前景感到担忧。美股主要股指周四收于纪录高位，一天前 美联储 ...

因此，周一，周二可以在3660-3615区间内做有效交易。至于周三，周四的行情变化，黄金可能会有较大的下跌空 间。早盘黄金开盘，走出了回落，当前价位在3630附近，按照震荡来看，日内可在3630附近做多，看震荡上行空间， 上方关注3655-3660目标点。 国内黄金; 国内金也进入了一个高位震荡的频率，上周提示沪金（2512合约）可在830支撑做趋势多单，融通金可在820支撑做趋 势多单，经过周四，周五的上周，沪金最高在838附近，融通金最高在830附近，基本达到了预期。那么，本周分世界 阶段来看，周一，周二还是看多头趋势的高位震荡，下方支撑不变，沪金830支撑看反弹，融通金820支撑看反弹，不 过一定要在周一，周二短线获利出局，周三关注美联储利率决议，如果市场符合预期降息，那么，沪金，融通金有可 能会出现一波下跌，也可能会转势大跌，这个关键看是否在本周实现。具体操作以江沐洋临盘提示为准。 黄金当前仍然是多头趋势，短期黄金进入高整理修正，本周重点关注周三周四美联储利率决议，预计市场公布数据后 会有较大变化，因此，本周黄金在周一，周二看高位震荡走势，周三，周四，周五行情关注美联储利率决议影响。 从技术面来看，自 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in gold prices is driven by weaker-than-expected U.S. PPI data, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and ongoing geopolitical tensions, indicating a new bull market cycle for gold [3][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - As of September 11, spot gold is trading around $3,642 per ounce, having reached a record high of $3,673.95 on September 10, reflecting a 0.6% increase [1]. - Year-to-date, gold prices have surged over 39%, with market expectations of a 90% probability for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. PPI unexpectedly fell month-on-month in August, influenced by a decline in service prices, which supports the case for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][4]. - Attention is now focused on the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which will be crucial in determining the Federal Reserve's policy direction [3][4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - The combination of weak economic data and expectations of multiple rate cuts before the end of the year is bolstering confidence in gold investments [4]. - The recent soft non-farm payroll report suggests a cooling labor market, further reinforcing the market's belief in the need for looser monetary policy [4].

Group 1 - Gold prices continued to rise, reaching a record high of $3578.29 per ounce, driven by weak U.S. employment data and strong safe-haven demand amid global uncertainties [1][3] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is at 96.6%, with only a 3.4% chance of maintaining current rates [1] - Following the release of employment data, traders increased their bets on a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve from 92% to 98% [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated that economic activity in most U.S. districts has shown little to no change, with consumer spending remaining flat or declining due to wages not keeping pace with rising prices [4] - Inflation was reported across all districts, with ten districts noting moderate or subdued inflation, while two reported strong input price growth [4] - Tariff-related price increases were mentioned as a significant factor affecting input prices in many districts [4]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current price of spot gold is around $3415.22 per ounce, having reached a five-week high due to a weaker dollar and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [2][4] - Gold prices increased by 0.6% to $3416.14 per ounce, marking the highest level since July 23, driven by concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve [2] - The market is currently in a wide-ranging oscillation phase, with a potential shift towards a trend formation as the oscillation cycle extends [2][4] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil futures fell by 0.46% to $67.74 per barrel, while WTI crude oil dropped by 0.56% to $63.79 per barrel, ending the previous day's gains [5] - U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 2.4 million barrels, exceeding market expectations, but concerns about seasonal demand decline post-Labor Day are prevalent [5] - The oil market is expected to remain in a $60-$65 per barrel range, influenced by Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and India's energy policies [5][6] Group 3: Technical Analysis - For gold, the short-term trading strategy suggests focusing on buying on dips and selling on rebounds, with key resistance at $3430-$3440 and support at $3400-$3390 [4] - WTI crude oil shows a potential support level around $63, with resistance at $65-$66; a breakout above $66 could lead to a rise towards $68 [6] - The overall market sentiment for both gold and oil indicates a cautious approach, emphasizing the importance of risk management in trading strategies [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent dovish remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have significantly influenced the gold market, leading to a rebound in gold prices and a decline in the US dollar, creating a favorable macro environment for precious metals [1][10]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices experienced a strong rebound, rising 1% to $3,371.78 per ounce, with US futures also increasing by 1.1% to $3,418.50 per ounce following Powell's speech [5]. - The US dollar index fell by 0.96% to 97.66 points, enhancing the attractiveness of gold for investors holding other currencies [5]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool indicated that the expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut in September surged from 75% to 85% after Powell's remarks [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Powell acknowledged increasing downside risks in the labor market and described the current labor market as a "strange balance," which may necessitate a shift in the Fed's policy stance [3]. - The yield on US two-year Treasury bonds dropped by 10.2 basis points to 3.69%, while the ten-year yield fell by 7.2 basis points to 4.259%, indicating strong expectations for short-term rate cuts [7]. - The yield curve steepened, with the gap between two-year and ten-year yields widening to 58.1 basis points, the steepest since mid-July [7]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - There is a strong bullish sentiment among Wall Street analysts and retail investors regarding gold, with 62% of analysts expecting gold prices to rise in the coming week [9]. - Despite low physical demand for gold in Asia, the overall market sentiment has turned optimistic, suggesting a potential breakout from the trading range observed over the past four months [9]. - Analysts believe that Powell's dovish stance and the potential for rate cuts could lead to gold reaching new historical highs by the end of the year [9].

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices are currently fluctuating around $3,334, with a slight decline of 0.3% on August 21, closing at $3,338.45 per ounce, while December futures fell 0.2% to $3,386.50 [1] - The rise of the US dollar index by 0.45% to a two-week high of 98.60 has made gold more expensive for overseas buyers, contributing to the decline in gold prices [1] - The 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 3.4 basis points to 4.329%, while the 2-year yield rose by 4.8 basis points to 3.792%, indicating a slight steepening of the yield curve and a reduction in rate cut expectations [1] - The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices all experienced declines, with notable weakness in retail stocks like Walmart impacting market sentiment [1] Economic Data Impact - The complexity of US economic data has increased uncertainty in the gold market, with rising initial jobless claims and weak manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia Fed survey suggesting labor market risks, prompting some investors to seek refuge in gold [2] - Conversely, unexpected increases in existing home sales and accelerated business activity in August, along with manufacturing orders reaching an 18-month high, have supported the rise of the dollar and US Treasury yields [2] Federal Reserve Divergence - Internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve add volatility to gold prices, with various Fed officials expressing differing views on the necessity and timing of rate cuts [5] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic expects only one rate cut this year but acknowledges significant economic uncertainty, while other officials emphasize the need to be cautious about inflation and the potential negative impacts of rate cuts [5] - This divergence reflects the Fed's challenges in balancing a slowing labor market against rising inflation pressures, complicating the policy outlook for investors [5] Geopolitical Factors - Global geopolitical tensions, such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and new US sanctions on Iran, are providing potential support for gold prices as they increase global uncertainty [6] - Analysts note that the US credit rating considerations are influenced by trade policies, which may also impact future ratings and support gold prices [6] - Market attention is focused on Fed Chair Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, which could reveal the Fed's policy direction and directly affect gold's future trajectory [6] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices are maintaining a small range, indicating indecision in the market, with traders advised to monitor for a breakout direction [8] - The short-term trend shows a narrowing range between $3,320 and $3,380, with traders likely to operate within this triangle until a decisive movement occurs [8] Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to operate within the converging triangle of $3,320 to $3,380, with a stop loss of $10 and a target of $20 to $30 [9] - Traders are advised to pay attention to Powell's speech at 22:00 for potential market-moving insights [9]

Group 1 - The iShares Silver Trust report indicates that as of August 15, the gold ETF holdings increased by 4.01 tons to a total of 965.37 tons [1] - Spot gold closed at $3,335.69 per ounce on August 15, with a daily increase of 0.91%, reaching a high of $3,348.74 and a low of $3,331.63 during the day [1] Group 2 - Current spot gold is trading around $3,344.16 per ounce, showing an increase of approximately 0.25%, after previously dropping to the lowest level since August 1 at $3,323.43 [3] - December futures for U.S. gold rose by 0.18% to $3,389.10, supported by a weak U.S. dollar index [3] - Geopolitical risks, including potential territorial exchanges in the Russia-Ukraine peace proposal and uncertainty from the U.S. canceling trade talks with India, are contributing to gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3]