Market Overview - During the National Day holiday, global financial markets faced multiple risk events, including the U.S. government shutdown entering its eighth day and political changes in Japan and France impacting the markets [1] - U.S. stock markets continued to rise, with major indices reaching record highs, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts [1] - The dollar index reached a two-month high, while the Japanese yen fell to its lowest level since mid-February [1][2] Commodity Market - LME copper prices hit a 16-month high due to supply concerns, reaching $10,815 per ton, influenced by operational disruptions in major mines [3] - COMEX gold prices surpassed $4,000 per ounce for the first time, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainties [6] - Oil prices fell to a four-month low, with concerns over oversupply and OPEC's decision to maintain a modest production increase of 137,000 barrels per day [7][17] Agricultural Commodities - CBOT soybean futures rebounded after hitting a seven-week low, supported by lower yield forecasts and expectations of improved demand [9][10] Central Bank Insights - The Federal Reserve noted increased risks in the employment market while remaining vigilant about inflation, with discussions on potential interest rate adjustments ongoing [11][12] - The New Zealand central bank unexpectedly cut rates by 50 basis points, indicating concerns over economic weakness [13]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current price of spot gold is around $3990 per ounce, having reached a historical high of $3990.90 per ounce, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing demand for safe-haven assets due to the U.S. government shutdown [1][3] - Despite a recent strengthening of the U.S. dollar, the market anticipates two more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, which may support gold prices [1] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown and escalating trade and geopolitical tensions continue to sustain demand for gold, limiting its downside potential [1] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is in a bullish trend, with expectations of further price increases, and the recommended trading strategy is to buy on dips [3] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is trading around $62.15 per barrel, with a recent rebound influenced by OPEC+'s decision to increase production modestly by 137,000 barrels per day starting in November, which is below market expectations [4] - The market is currently experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with predictions of oversupply, leading to cautious sentiment among investors [4] - Technical indicators suggest a bearish medium-term outlook for oil prices, with expectations of continued downward movement, while short-term trends may show some upward corrections [5]

Group 1 - Gold prices are currently trading around $3,640 per ounce, having declined due to profit-taking and market assessment of the Federal Reserve's stance on further rate cuts [1][3] - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, with expectations of additional cuts throughout the remainder of the year to address signs of a weakening labor market [3][4] - Gold has performed well in low-interest-rate environments, rising nearly 39% year-to-date, with a significant increase in Swiss gold exports to China, which surged by 254% in August compared to July [4] Group 2 - The U.S. job market is showing signs of softness, with initial jobless claims decreasing but overall labor supply and demand declining, leading to concerns about the economic outlook [1][4] - The market anticipates a further reduction in interest rates, with investors expecting an additional 44.2 basis points cut by the end of 2025 [3]

Market Overview - Gold prices increased last Friday, approaching record highs, as signs of a weak U.S. labor market strengthened expectations for the Federal Reserve's first rate cut of the year this week [1] - Spot gold closed at $3648.55 per ounce, up 0.4%, nearing the record high of $3673.95, marking the fourth consecutive week of gains [1] - December futures for U.S. gold rose 0.3%, settling at $3686.40 [1] Economic Indicators - Recent data showed a significant increase in initial jobless claims in the U.S., alongside weak non-farm payroll data, with employment positions revised down by 910,000 over the past 12 months, indicating a cooling economic momentum [1] - The consumer price index in August recorded the largest month-on-month increase in seven months, but investors are focusing more on labor market weakness than persistent inflation when forming interest rate expectations [1] Federal Reserve Expectations - The federal funds futures market fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut at the September 17 meeting, with bets on a potential 50 basis point cut [1] - President Trump anticipates that the Federal Reserve will implement "significant rate cuts" [1] Technical Analysis - The gold market is currently in a bullish trend, with short-term high consolidation expected [2] - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3600 and $3500; a drop below $3600 could indicate a shift in market strength, while a breach of $3500 may signal a change in the bullish-bearish trend [4] - The H4 timeframe shows a more defined consolidation pattern, with a trading range expected between $3615 and $3660 for early this week [4] Domestic Gold Market - The domestic gold market is also experiencing high-level consolidation, with support levels set at 830 for Shanghai gold and 820 for Rongtong gold [5] - The market is expected to maintain a bullish trend in the early part of the week, with potential for a downturn following the Federal Reserve's rate decision [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in gold prices is driven by weaker-than-expected U.S. PPI data, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and ongoing geopolitical tensions, indicating a new bull market cycle for gold [3][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - As of September 11, spot gold is trading around $3,642 per ounce, having reached a record high of $3,673.95 on September 10, reflecting a 0.6% increase [1]. - Year-to-date, gold prices have surged over 39%, with market expectations of a 90% probability for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. PPI unexpectedly fell month-on-month in August, influenced by a decline in service prices, which supports the case for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][4]. - Attention is now focused on the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which will be crucial in determining the Federal Reserve's policy direction [3][4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - The combination of weak economic data and expectations of multiple rate cuts before the end of the year is bolstering confidence in gold investments [4]. - The recent soft non-farm payroll report suggests a cooling labor market, further reinforcing the market's belief in the need for looser monetary policy [4].

Group 1 - Gold prices continued to rise, reaching a record high of $3578.29 per ounce, driven by weak U.S. employment data and strong safe-haven demand amid global uncertainties [1][3] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is at 96.6%, with only a 3.4% chance of maintaining current rates [1] - Following the release of employment data, traders increased their bets on a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve from 92% to 98% [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated that economic activity in most U.S. districts has shown little to no change, with consumer spending remaining flat or declining due to wages not keeping pace with rising prices [4] - Inflation was reported across all districts, with ten districts noting moderate or subdued inflation, while two reported strong input price growth [4] - Tariff-related price increases were mentioned as a significant factor affecting input prices in many districts [4]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current price of spot gold is around $3415.22 per ounce, having reached a five-week high due to a weaker dollar and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [2][4] - Gold prices increased by 0.6% to $3416.14 per ounce, marking the highest level since July 23, driven by concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve [2] - The market is currently in a wide-ranging oscillation phase, with a potential shift towards a trend formation as the oscillation cycle extends [2][4] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil futures fell by 0.46% to $67.74 per barrel, while WTI crude oil dropped by 0.56% to $63.79 per barrel, ending the previous day's gains [5] - U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 2.4 million barrels, exceeding market expectations, but concerns about seasonal demand decline post-Labor Day are prevalent [5] - The oil market is expected to remain in a $60-$65 per barrel range, influenced by Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and India's energy policies [5][6] Group 3: Technical Analysis - For gold, the short-term trading strategy suggests focusing on buying on dips and selling on rebounds, with key resistance at $3430-$3440 and support at $3400-$3390 [4] - WTI crude oil shows a potential support level around $63, with resistance at $65-$66; a breakout above $66 could lead to a rise towards $68 [6] - The overall market sentiment for both gold and oil indicates a cautious approach, emphasizing the importance of risk management in trading strategies [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent dovish remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have significantly influenced the gold market, leading to a rebound in gold prices and a decline in the US dollar, creating a favorable macro environment for precious metals [1][10]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices experienced a strong rebound, rising 1% to $3,371.78 per ounce, with US futures also increasing by 1.1% to $3,418.50 per ounce following Powell's speech [5]. - The US dollar index fell by 0.96% to 97.66 points, enhancing the attractiveness of gold for investors holding other currencies [5]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool indicated that the expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut in September surged from 75% to 85% after Powell's remarks [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Powell acknowledged increasing downside risks in the labor market and described the current labor market as a "strange balance," which may necessitate a shift in the Fed's policy stance [3]. - The yield on US two-year Treasury bonds dropped by 10.2 basis points to 3.69%, while the ten-year yield fell by 7.2 basis points to 4.259%, indicating strong expectations for short-term rate cuts [7]. - The yield curve steepened, with the gap between two-year and ten-year yields widening to 58.1 basis points, the steepest since mid-July [7]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - There is a strong bullish sentiment among Wall Street analysts and retail investors regarding gold, with 62% of analysts expecting gold prices to rise in the coming week [9]. - Despite low physical demand for gold in Asia, the overall market sentiment has turned optimistic, suggesting a potential breakout from the trading range observed over the past four months [9]. - Analysts believe that Powell's dovish stance and the potential for rate cuts could lead to gold reaching new historical highs by the end of the year [9].

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices are currently fluctuating around $3,334, with a slight decline of 0.3% on August 21, closing at $3,338.45 per ounce, while December futures fell 0.2% to $3,386.50 [1] - The rise of the US dollar index by 0.45% to a two-week high of 98.60 has made gold more expensive for overseas buyers, contributing to the decline in gold prices [1] - The 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 3.4 basis points to 4.329%, while the 2-year yield rose by 4.8 basis points to 3.792%, indicating a slight steepening of the yield curve and a reduction in rate cut expectations [1] - The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices all experienced declines, with notable weakness in retail stocks like Walmart impacting market sentiment [1] Economic Data Impact - The complexity of US economic data has increased uncertainty in the gold market, with rising initial jobless claims and weak manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia Fed survey suggesting labor market risks, prompting some investors to seek refuge in gold [2] - Conversely, unexpected increases in existing home sales and accelerated business activity in August, along with manufacturing orders reaching an 18-month high, have supported the rise of the dollar and US Treasury yields [2] Federal Reserve Divergence - Internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve add volatility to gold prices, with various Fed officials expressing differing views on the necessity and timing of rate cuts [5] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic expects only one rate cut this year but acknowledges significant economic uncertainty, while other officials emphasize the need to be cautious about inflation and the potential negative impacts of rate cuts [5] - This divergence reflects the Fed's challenges in balancing a slowing labor market against rising inflation pressures, complicating the policy outlook for investors [5] Geopolitical Factors - Global geopolitical tensions, such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and new US sanctions on Iran, are providing potential support for gold prices as they increase global uncertainty [6] - Analysts note that the US credit rating considerations are influenced by trade policies, which may also impact future ratings and support gold prices [6] - Market attention is focused on Fed Chair Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, which could reveal the Fed's policy direction and directly affect gold's future trajectory [6] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices are maintaining a small range, indicating indecision in the market, with traders advised to monitor for a breakout direction [8] - The short-term trend shows a narrowing range between $3,320 and $3,380, with traders likely to operate within this triangle until a decisive movement occurs [8] Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to operate within the converging triangle of $3,320 to $3,380, with a stop loss of $10 and a target of $20 to $30 [9] - Traders are advised to pay attention to Powell's speech at 22:00 for potential market-moving insights [9]

Group 1 - The iShares Silver Trust report indicates that as of August 15, the gold ETF holdings increased by 4.01 tons to a total of 965.37 tons [1] - Spot gold closed at $3,335.69 per ounce on August 15, with a daily increase of 0.91%, reaching a high of $3,348.74 and a low of $3,331.63 during the day [1] Group 2 - Current spot gold is trading around $3,344.16 per ounce, showing an increase of approximately 0.25%, after previously dropping to the lowest level since August 1 at $3,323.43 [3] - December futures for U.S. gold rose by 0.18% to $3,389.10, supported by a weak U.S. dollar index [3] - Geopolitical risks, including potential territorial exchanges in the Russia-Ukraine peace proposal and uncertainty from the U.S. canceling trade talks with India, are contributing to gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3]