联合国贸易和发展会议(以下简称"贸发会议")日前发布最新一期《全球投资趋势监测》报告指出，2025 年全球外国直接投资(FDI)同比增长14%，达到1.6万亿美元，但增长主要是由于技术性反弹，并不意味 着实体投资全面复苏。 报告指出，2025年全球外国直接投资中，有超过1400亿美元的增量来自英国、卢森堡、瑞士、爱尔兰等 金融中转中心，剔除此类通道型FDI后，真实增幅仅约5%。跨国公司通过金融中心进行内部资金调拨、 税务结构安排、并购资金过账，形成大量账面FDI流动，但不对应实体投资。资金在流动的同时，项目 并没有落地，增长更多是资金路径变化，不是新增工厂、基础设施或项目投资。 报告预计，2026年FDI存在温和回升可能，但下行风险明显，复苏基础不稳。其中，有利因素是通胀和 融资成本预计下降、并购活动可能回暖，不利因素是地缘政治冲突、政策不确定性增加，经济碎片化加 剧，资本支出可能进一步向少数国家和战略行业收缩聚集。 (责任编辑：朱赫) 2025年，基础设施等领域的国际项目融资连续第4年下降，降幅高达16%；新建绿地项目数量减少 16%；跨境并购金额减少10%。这些数据表明，企业不愿作长期资本承诺。报告分析指 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that global foreign direct investment (FDI) is expected to grow by 14% in 2025, reaching $1.6 trillion, primarily due to a technical rebound rather than a comprehensive recovery in physical investments [2] - The report highlights that over $140 billion of the FDI increase in 2025 will come from financial hubs like the UK, Luxembourg, Switzerland, and Ireland, but when excluding this type of FDI, the real growth is only about 5% [2] - There is a significant disparity in global investment distribution, with developed economies experiencing a 43% increase in FDI to $728 billion, while developing economies saw a 2% decrease to $877 billion, and low-income economies faced a 5% decline [2] Group 2 - International project financing in infrastructure and other sectors has declined for the fourth consecutive year, with a drop of 16%, and the number of new greenfield projects has also decreased by 16% [3] - The report attributes the weakening of corporate investment intentions to structural reasons, as companies are more inclined to manage funds rather than commit to physical investments due to increased uncertainty in trade, industry, and investment policies [3] - Global FDI is increasingly concentrated in data centers and semiconductors, with data centers accounting for about 20% of global greenfield investment, while traditional manufacturing and renewable energy sectors are experiencing a notable decline [4] Group 3 - The report anticipates a modest recovery in FDI in 2026, but the risks of decline are significant, with unstable recovery foundations [4] - Favorable factors for potential recovery include expected decreases in inflation and financing costs, as well as a possible rebound in merger and acquisition activities [4] - Adverse factors include escalating geopolitical conflicts, increased policy uncertainty, and heightened economic fragmentation, which may lead to capital expenditures concentrating further in a few countries and strategic industries [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that China is expected to lead in expanding its share of global foreign direct investment (FDI) sources by 2026, as indicated by a survey of 101 FDI professionals [1] - The report highlights that companies such as ByteDance, Geely, BYD, JD.com, Haier, Huawei, Alibaba, and Tencent are actively pursuing internationalization strategies to enter new markets and promote advanced products [1] - Emerging economies like the UAE, India, and Saudi Arabia are also significant players in the FDI landscape, being mentioned 40, 31, and 29 times respectively in the survey [1] Group 2 - The report cites Robin van Puyenbroeck, Executive Director of the World Trade Center Association, stating that by 2026, the focus of global trade will decisively shift southward, with emerging hubs like Lagos, São Paulo, Mumbai, and Dubai challenging traditional Western centers [2] - This shift is expected to compel businesses and policymakers to adapt to a multi-centered order, marking a pivotal moment for emerging economies as they become the true drivers of global growth [2]

Group 1: Global Foreign Direct Investment Trends - In 2024, global foreign direct investment (FDI) is projected to decline by 11% to approximately $1.5 trillion, marking the second consecutive year of decline [1] - The primary reason for this decline is a 58% drop in FDI inflows to Europe, affecting 15 of the 27 EU member states, including major economies like Germany, Spain, Italy, and France [1] - The total amount of international project financing (IPF) crucial for infrastructure investment in Europe also decreased by 11% year-on-year, indicating a broader cautious attitude among investors [1] Group 2: FDI in Developing Countries - FDI inflows to developing economies remain relatively stable, accounting for 57% of global FDI inflows in 2024, with a total of $867 billion, showing resilience amid global uncertainties [2] - The inflow of FDI in developing countries is highly concentrated, with ten major emerging markets, including China, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, and India, representing about 75% of total FDI inflows to these regions [2] Group 3: Investment Policy Differences - There is a growing divergence in investment policies between developing and developed countries, with developing nations emphasizing openness to FDI and implementing favorable measures, while developed countries are increasingly adopting restrictive measures [8] - Over 40% of unfavorable measures introduced in 2024 involve new or expanded scrutiny mechanisms, primarily by developed countries, focusing on high-tech industries and critical raw materials essential for energy transition and supply chain resilience [8] Group 4: Digital Economy as an Investment Highlight - The digital economy is identified as the fastest-growing sector for global investment, with greenfield investment projects in this area surging to $360 billion in 2024 [12] - Between 2020 and 2024, developing countries attracted $531 billion in digital economy greenfield investments, with nearly 80% of these projects concentrated in ten countries, including six in Asia and two in Latin America [12] Group 5: Role of China and the U.S. in Global FDI - China and the U.S. are recognized as significant recipients of FDI and are viewed as barometers for global trade and investment trends [16] - China's FDI structure is shifting towards high-tech industries and advanced manufacturing, indicating a positive trend in attracting high-quality investments [16]

Group 1: Trade Negotiations - The EU is attempting to reach a trade agreement with the US similar to the UK-US agreement, aiming to resolve some tariff disputes before the July 9 deadline to avoid immediate retaliatory tariffs against the US [1][3] - The US has increased tariffs on EU steel and aluminum products from 25% to 50%, with President Trump threatening to raise "reciprocal tariffs" to 50% if no agreement is reached [3][5] - EU internal divisions are weakening its negotiating position, with some countries like France advocating for retaliation while others, including Italy and Hungary, prefer continued negotiations [5][6] Group 2: Economic Impact - The UN warns that global foreign direct investment (FDI) is at risk of declining for the third consecutive year due to tariff uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, projecting an 11% drop in 2024 [9] - The UN Secretary-General highlighted that rising trade barriers and geopolitical divisions could worsen the already challenging economic outlook, with tariffs increasing uncertainty for investors [9][10] - A recent Business Roundtable report indicated a 15-point drop in the CEO Economic Outlook Index, attributed to unpredictable trade policies and widespread uncertainty [10]