Core Viewpoint - The current global liquidity crisis is primarily driven by the U.S. government shutdown and the Federal Reserve's uncertain monetary policy, leading to widespread declines in various asset classes, including stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies, while the U.S. dollar index rises above 100 [1][2][7]. Group 1: Causes of Global Liquidity Crisis - The liquidity crisis began with the U.S. government shutdown, which prevented the flow of funds into the market, causing short-term borrowing rates to spike [2][4]. - The Federal Reserve's meeting on October 30 further exacerbated the situation, as Chairman Powell indicated uncertainty regarding future interest rate cuts, which led to a loss of market confidence [2][6]. - The failure of the U.S. Senate to pass a funding bill on November 4 intensified market fears, resulting in a significant sell-off across various asset classes [4][5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - Following the government shutdown's resolution, the market initially rebounded; however, the lack of timely economic data and increasing divisions among Federal Reserve officials created further uncertainty [6][7]. - The announcement that the October non-farm payroll data would not be released until December contributed to a decline in the probability of interest rate cuts, with the likelihood dropping to 32% [7][9]. - The market's focus has shifted back to liquidity concerns, with the potential for a more severe downturn if economic data continues to show weakness [10][11]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The liquidity crisis is expected to end around mid-December, coinciding with the release of significant economic data, including employment reports, which are anticipated to be poor due to the government shutdown's impact [12][15]. - The Federal Reserve is likely to halt its balance sheet reduction by December 1, which may lead to a resumption of asset purchases if economic conditions worsen [13][14]. - The recovery of global liquidity could prompt investment opportunities across various markets, including U.S. stocks, A-shares, and Hong Kong stocks, depending on the timing and nature of the economic data released [16].

今天是全球杀疯的一天， A 股甚至都不上演以往的低开高走，展示我们对资本主义的优越性了。这个也好理解，一般 A 股显示优越性是只管 一天的，而如果美股持续下跌， A 股无一例外都会跟跌，股市里大家少点幻想，是不存在东升西落的。 然后今天暴跌，大家也不用找我们自身的原因，这个原因是全球性的，那就是全球流动性杀，体现为股票跌、黄金跌、币跌，独独美元指数， 又上 100 了。 这种全球性的流动性杀带来的下跌，看似凶险，但是是有解的，最怕的全球性下跌是全球衰退带来的，这种就是漫长的阴跌，才真正叫可怕。 那么当前这波全球流动性杀起源于哪，又将在什么时候结束？ 01 全球流动性的由来 这波全球流动性杀始于美国政府的停摆，之前在《全球暴跌， A 股独涨，这是什么逻辑？》那篇文章里详细讲了美国政府停摆对流动性的杀 伤。美国政府停摆导致财政部大量应该花向市场的钱没有流动出去，美国的短融市场立即感受到了压力，因而短融市场利率飙升。 随后给流动性一击的是 10 月 30 日凌晨美联储的议息会议。惯例美联储发布决议内容后，就是鲍威尔的新闻发布会。但在我们这边时间凌晨 2 点 35 左右时，鲍威尔原来在读稿子，这时却抬了头补充道：" ...