⚫ 期权市场 上周期权市场中，绝大多数品种金融期权隐波（IV）仍继续降 低。当前科创 50 期权（IV=31%）和创业板指期权（IV=29%）隐波 自 9 月以来持续回落，但仍处于近一年中位数以上的偏高位置。 50、300 期权 IV 目前处于 12%-15%的区间，中证 500、中证 1000 期权 IV 处于 17%-19%的区间内。多数金融期权持仓量 PCR 处于 80%-115%范围，较前一周略有上升。 2025-11-17 ⚫ 综述 上周市场整体呈现震荡走势。除上证 50 指数外，其余各大指 数普遍收跌，其中科创 50 指数领跌，周度跌幅达 3.84%。板块方 面，纺织服饰等行业表现较好，周度涨幅约为 4.42%；电子等板块 走势偏弱，周度跌幅约为 4.76%。上周市场继续聚焦美元流动性问 题。尽管美国政府结束停摆的消息在一定程度上提振了市场的风 险偏好，但美元流动性偏紧的问题并未改善。一方面美联储继续 释放偏鹰的信号，降低市场对于 12 月降息的预期；另一方面，日 元走势偏弱也为美元提供支撑。受此影响，上周美元维持强势， 但人民币表现相对稳健，受美元的影响有限，中国资产价格整体 受到的冲击不大。短 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global long-term government bonds are experiencing significant sell-offs, with rising yields across countries like Japan, Germany, the UK, and France, as concerns over fiscal deficits replace central bank policies as the main focus of the market [1][10]. Group 1: Bond Yield Trends - Japan's 10-year government bond yield rose by 2.5 basis points to 1.595%, the highest level since 2008 [1]. - The 30-year Japanese government bond yield saw its largest increase in two months, while the German 30-year bond yield approached a 14-year high [1]. - The U.S. 30-year bond yield reached a one-month high of 4.98% [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Concerns - Concerns over increased government debt, oversupply of bonds, and persistent inflation are driving market anxiety, particularly in light of Japan's upcoming elections and Trump's tariff threats [1][9]. - The market anticipates that election outcomes may pave the way for additional fiscal stimulus in Japan, contributing to rising long-term yields [1][6]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy Implications - Japan's ruling party is proposing cash subsidies while the opposition plans tax cuts, reflecting heightened budgetary risks as the July 20 Senate elections approach [6]. - Despite the Japanese Finance Ministry's efforts to reduce long-term bond issuance, borrowing costs continue to rise, indicating a demand gap as major insurance companies avoid ultra-long bonds [6]. Group 4: Global Impact of Japanese Bond Yields - BCA Research warns that changes in Japanese bond yields, as a significant source of global liquidity, could pose a major threat to U.S. tech stocks [2][13]. - The correlation between U.S. tech stock valuations and Japanese government bond yields suggests that a rise in Japanese yields could tighten global liquidity, impacting tech stock valuations reliant on low-cost funding [13].