Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Iran situation has escalated, with potential impacts on energy, precious metals, and shipping sectors. Crude oil and gold may rise in the short - term, but there is a risk of "selling on the news". An escalation could increase global inflation risks [1]. - During the Two Sessions, the stock and commodity markets face pressure, while after the Two Sessions, the stock index rebounds. The A - share index has limited pressure during the sessions, and the commodity sector has significant pressure. After the sessions, the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 lead in terms of gains and win - rates [2]. - There are opportunities for bottom - fishing in commodities and stock index futures. Consider going long on stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The Iran situation has escalated after the US - Israel air strike on February 28. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran launched a large - scale counter - attack, damaging energy and production facilities in the Middle East and its surrounding areas. The conflict may affect crude oil, methanol, LPG, precious metals, and shipping. The probability of the Strait of Hormuz being blocked is low, but the political direction after a possible regime change in Iran is unclear and may impact oil exports and nuclear negotiations [1]. - The US 2025 Q4 GDP growth rate was 1.4% (annualized), lower than the expected 2.5%. The US PPI in January rose 0.5% month - on - month. The US February ADP employment increased by 63,000, the highest in three months. The Fed is vigilant about the Middle East situation and is not in a hurry to adjust the monetary policy stance [2]. - China's January social financing had a good start, indicating that pro - growth policies may be implemented in advance. China's February official manufacturing PMI was 49, and non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5 [2]. Commodity Analysis - In the non - ferrous metals sector, the long - term supply constraint remains unresolved, with high certainty. Precious metals have allocation value after the adjustment. In the energy sector, pay attention to the short - term evolution of the Iran situation, and beware of the "selling on the news" risk. OPEC+ will increase production by 206,000 barrels per day from April, higher than the market expectation [3]. - In the chemical sector, PTA, PVC and other varieties are relatively resistant to decline under the "anti - involution" and stock - commodity linkage. For agricultural products, pay attention to weather expectations and short - term pig diseases. For the black metal sector, focus on domestic policy expectations and the possibility of low - valuation repair [3]. Strategy - Go long on stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products on dips [4]. Important News - The State Council Information Office will hold a briefing on March 7, 2026, to interpret the "15th Five - Year Plan". - The China Securities Regulatory Commission Chairman will report on the work of increasing the proportion of equity financing. - The government work report sets the 2026 economic growth target at 4.5% - 5%, with a deficit rate of about 4%, a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, and plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds [5]. - An American oil tanker was hit by an Iranian missile in the Persian Gulf on March 5 [5]. - The US February ADP employment increased by 63,000, the highest in three months [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Domestic stock indices show significant holiday seasonality, with a continuous upward trend in the first month after the Spring Festival. The probability of gains for the ChiNext, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 is not less than 60%, and the CSI 1000 (IM) performs prominently [3] - Consumption during the holiday provides some support for grains, soft commodities, and oilseeds in the agricultural products sector, with a nearly 70% probability of sample increases on the first trading day after the holiday [3] - The US GDP growth rate in Q4 2025 was lower than expected, and the February PMI preliminary value was under pressure. China's January social financing had a good start, indicating that pro - growth policies are expected to be implemented ahead of schedule [3] - There are opportunities for bottom - up allocation in commodity sectors after the holiday. The long - term supply constraints in the non - ferrous sector remain unrelieved, and precious metals have allocation value again after the adjustment [4] - In the energy sector, pay attention to the short - term evolution of the Iran situation. Oil prices are driven by geopolitical factors, and there is a risk of "selling on the news". In the long term, increased production in Venezuela still poses a threat to oil prices [4] - In the chemical sector, varieties such as PTA and PVC are relatively resistant to decline under the "anti - involution" and stock - commodity linkage [4] - For agricultural products, pay attention to weather expectations and short - term pig epidemic situations. For the black sector, focus on domestic policy expectations and the possibility of low - valuation repair [4] - The trading strategy is to go long on stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products on dips [5] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - During China's Spring Festival holiday, there were continuous overseas geopolitical risks. The third round of indirect negotiations between Iran and the US took place in Geneva on the 26th. The Trump administration requires any future Iran nuclear agreement to be "indefinitely valid" without a sunset clause, and the current negotiation focuses on Iran's domestic uranium enrichment and inventory handling [2] - The US Supreme Court ruled that the 1977 IEEPA did not empower the president to impose tariffs without congressional approval. Trump announced a 10% "global import tariff" for 150 days, which took effect on February 24, and later proposed to raise it to 15% [2] - The EU froze the approval process of the US - EU trade agreement, and China will adjust counter - measures against the US [2] - Trump mentioned in his State of the Union address that the stock market hit a record high, inflation dropped, and he hoped that tariffs would replace the modern income tax system. He also made other statements such as allowing legal immigration and banning lawmakers from stock trading [2] Strategy - Go long on stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products on dips [5] To - Do List - A new round of US - Iran negotiations started on the 26th, and the third round of negotiations was suspended and continued later that day [7] - The US Middle East envoy stated that the Trump administration requires Iran to accept an "indefinitely valid" nuclear agreement [7] - The offshore RMB against the US dollar rose above the 6.84 mark, reaching a new high since April 2023 [7] - The US may raise the "global import tariff" on some countries to 15%, and the EU estimates that 42 billion euros worth of goods face new tariffs exceeding the US - EU agreement limit [7] - Saudi Arabia's oil exports from its ports this month are expected to reach the highest level in nearly three years [7] Macro - economy - Figures include the Citi Economic Surprise Index, 30 - city weekly and daily commercial housing transaction areas, and five major listed steel consumption volumes [8][10][13] Interest Rates - Figures include the 10Y and 2Y China - US Treasury bond spreads [8][18] Foreign Exchange - Figures include the weekly change in the US dollar against major currencies and the US dollar index trend [8][21][22]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall inflation narrative remains unchanged, and domestic policies are clearly driving up inflation. The overseas situation is mainly influenced by Trump's policies. The sharp decline in precious metals does not change the long - term trend, but short - term volatility risks need to be watched out for [1]. - In the short term, be vigilant about market fluctuations. The long - term supply constraints in the non - ferrous sector have not been alleviated, and precious metals have allocation value again after the adjustment. The energy sector has short - term geopolitical support for oil prices, but there are still threats from Venezuela's long - term production increase expectations [2]. - The strategy for commodities and stock index futures is to buy precious metals on dips [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 30, Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. After the news, silver fell more than 30% and gold fell 11%, the largest single - day decline since March 1980. The core of Trump's nomination is to cut interest rates and boost the real estate market, and Warsh's "balance - sheet reduction" needs more aggressive "interest - rate cuts" [1]. - On February 5, Bitcoin fell below $70,000, hitting a 15 - month low [1]. - The central economic work conference emphasized consumption promotion and anti - "involution" competition. The central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points on January 15. The Ministry of Finance issued five important policy documents on January 20 to boost inflation [1]. - The US manufacturing activity unexpectedly expanded in January, and the US ADP employment in January increased by 22,000, lower than the expected 45,000. The US and India reached a trade agreement, with the US "reciprocal tariff" on India dropping from 25% to 18% [1]. - The European Central Bank kept the deposit rate at 2% on Thursday, the fifth consecutive pause since last June. The Bank of England kept the interest rate at 3.75%, with an internal 5:4 vote close to a rate cut, sending a strong dovish signal [1] Commodity Analysis - Non - ferrous metals: Long - term supply constraints remain unrelieved, with high certainty [2]. - Precious metals: Have allocation value again after the adjustment [2]. - Energy: OPEC + plans to keep crude oil production stable in March. The US will "sell on commission" Venezuelan oil, and Trump hopes to lower the oil price to $50 per barrel. There are short - term geopolitical supports for oil prices, but long - term production increase expectations from Venezuela pose threats [2]. - Chemicals: Methanol, PTA and other varieties are relatively resistant to decline under the "anti - involution" and stock - commodity linkage [2]. - Agricultural products: Need to pay attention to weather expectations and short - term pig epidemic situations [2]. - Black commodities: Focus on domestic policy expectations and the possibility of low - valuation repair [2] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, buy precious metals on dips [3] Important News - Trump said that his nominee for Fed Chair would not be appointed if they expressed the intention to raise interest rates [1][4]. - The UK central bank kept the benchmark interest rate at 3.75%, in line with market expectations [4]. - The US - Iran nuclear negotiation plan was restored, and the negotiation will be held in Oman [4]. - The second round of Russia - US - Ukraine tripartite talks ended, and the US and Russia agreed to resume high - level military dialogue [1][4]. - The European Central Bank aims to keep inflation stable at 2% in the medium term and will decide the monetary policy stance based on data and meeting by meeting [4]. - The Bank of England had a 5:4 vote to keep the benchmark interest rate at 3.75%. Interest rates "are likely to be cut further", and inflation persistence risks are currently "less obvious" [4]

Economic Performance - Singapore's GDP grew by 3.8% year-on-year in Q1, down from 5.0% in the previous quarter [1] - The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) revised the GDP growth forecast for the year from 1.0%-3.0% to 0.0%-2.0% due to uncertainties such as the US's "reciprocal tariffs" [1][3] Sector Performance - Manufacturing output grew by 5.0% year-on-year in Q1, a decrease from 7.4% in the previous quarter, with a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter decline of 4.9% [1] - Construction output increased by 4.6% year-on-year, maintaining the previous quarter's growth rate of 4.4%, but saw a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.3% [1] - Wholesale and retail trade, transportation, and warehousing sectors grew by 4.2% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in the previous quarter [2] External Factors - MTI highlighted that the US's imposition of a 10% "baseline tariff" and increased tariffs on countries with significant trade surpluses will negatively impact global trade and economic growth [3] - The decline in external demand is expected to adversely affect Singapore's economy and the ASEAN region, leading to reduced consumer confidence and domestic investment [3][4] Financial Sector Impact - The financial and insurance sectors are anticipated to experience reduced trading activity due to risk-averse sentiment, negatively impacting net fees and commissions from banking and financial services [5] - The uncertain economic environment may suppress corporate capital investment and limit credit intermediation activities [5] Overall Economic Outlook - MTI expects external demand to weaken significantly by the end of the year, particularly affecting export-oriented sectors like manufacturing and wholesale trade [4] - The economic growth forecast for Singapore is expected to slow from 4.4% last year to between 0.0% and 2.0% this year [5]

Global Economic Overview - In Q1 2025, the global economy showed a simultaneous weakening in both supply and demand, with agricultural output growth slowing and service sector sentiment declining [1][4][6] - Consumer spending growth has slowed, private investment remains weak, and government spending is experiencing moderate growth, leading to an increased risk of global inflation rebound [1][4][6] - In Q2 2025, global economic downturn risks are expected to rise, with both demand and supply likely to face pressure [1][4][12] Major Economies Analysis - The US economy is facing weakening growth expectations and rising stagflation risks due to Trump's new policies, while Europe shows signs of recovery driven by fiscal policy, albeit with varying growth trajectories among countries [2][4][12] - Japan's economic outlook has improved, but external demand growth is uncertain; South Korea faces multiple challenges with heightened downside risks [2][4][12] - India's economic growth is rebounding, but potential impacts from tariff policies are concerning; Canada and Mexico are experiencing slowing growth due to tariff impacts [2][4][12] International Financial Markets - Cross-border capital flows remain low, with adjustments in securities investment flows; the currency market is tight, and liquidity varies across regions [2][4][12] - Global debt levels are rising, with policy factors continuing to influence the US and European bond markets; stock market fundamentals remain stable, but policy uncertainties are increasing market volatility [2][4][12] - Commodity prices are experiencing increased volatility, with a sustained upward trend in gold prices [2][4][12] Trade and Tariff Policies - Trump's tariff policies are beginning to impact global trade, with significant tariff increases on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico, leading to varied export performance among major economies [19][20][21] - The potential for a new round of global trade wars is increasing, with affected economies seeking to negotiate trade arrangements and implement countermeasures [19][20][21] - The global trade risk is accumulating as major economies engage in tariff policy battles, with Canada and the EU already announcing retaliatory tariffs against US goods [19][20][21]

Core Viewpoint - The report from the Bank of China Research Institute indicates an increase in global economic downturn risks in Q2 2025, with projected real GDP growth rates of approximately 2.6% for Q2 and 2.4% for the entire year [1] Demand Side Summary - The report highlights that U.S. tariff policies may trigger a chain reaction, leading to rising price levels that pressure global private consumption. Additionally, global investment activities are expected to remain sluggish, with government spending in the U.S. and EU showing divergence. Overall, the demand side is likely to contract in Q2 [1] Supply Side Summary - On the supply side, the global manufacturing recovery is anticipated to face cost shocks, while the service sector may gradually return to long-term trend levels. The report notes that despite good growth prospects for digitalization, automation, and related services, weakened expectations for employment and income growth will reduce spending on leisure and tourism. Thus, the supply side will continue to face pressure in Q2 [1] International Financial Market Summary - In terms of cross-border capital flows, global Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is expected to maintain low growth in Q2, with adjustments in securities investment flows. For the entire year of 2025, global FDI inflows are projected to remain flat or see slight increases compared to 2024 [1] Foreign Exchange Market Summary - The report anticipates a turning point in major currency trends, with increased volatility in global exchange rates. The U.S. dollar index is expected to fluctuate at high levels, while Asian currencies show overall resilience, and Eastern European currencies may face corrections. The overall volatility in the foreign exchange market is increasing, suggesting caution against rapid reversals in arbitrage trading [2] Bond Market Summary - The report predicts an overall rise in global debt levels in Q2, although the growth rate of debt is expected to slow further. Factors such as reduced supply pressure may lead to downward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields, while fiscal reforms in Germany and spillover effects are likely to increase volatility in the European bond market [2] Stock Market Summary - The global stock market fundamentals are considered relatively stable, but policy uncertainties are expected to increase market volatility. The report indicates that there remains upward momentum in global stock markets in Q2, with non-U.S. markets becoming more attractive. Technology stocks may show divergent trends, while the financial, power, and resource sectors are highlighted as areas of interest [2] Commodity Market Summary - The report forecasts increased volatility in global commodity prices in Q2. It notes that international oil demand growth may lag behind supply, putting continued pressure on oil prices. Gold prices are expected to experience short-term fluctuations but maintain an overall upward trend. Key minerals are anticipated to become a new battleground among nations, reshaping the global supply-demand landscape [2]