近日，新加坡贸易与工业部（MTI）发布季度经济预估数据显示，今年一季度，新加坡国内生产总值 （GDP）同比增长3.8%，低于去年四季度同比增长5.0%的增速。与此同时，鉴于美国近期宣布实施所 谓"对等关税"等不确定性因素，MTI已将新加坡今年的GDP增长预期从此前预测的增长1.0%至3.0%，下 调至增长0.0%至2.0%。 首先，不确定性上升可能导致经济活动回落幅度超过预期，因为企业和家庭在作出支出决定之前会采 取"观望"态度。 新加坡今年一季度的经济表现不及政府部门此前预期，主要由于制造业、金融业和保险等外向型服务业 产值环比下滑，以及外部需求放缓所致。 按行业划分，今年一季度，新加坡制造业产值同比增长5.0%，低于前一季度7.4%的增速。经季节性调 整后，制造业产值环比下降4.9%，较去年四季度有所恶化。 数据显示，今年一季度，新加坡建筑业产值同比增长4.6%，延续了上一季度4.4%的增速。本季度的增 长主要得益于公共和私营部门建筑业产值的增长。经季节性调整后，建筑业产值环比下降2.3%，低于 前一季度产值0.3%的增长。 在服务业中，批发和零售贸易、运输和仓储业产值在今年一季度同比增长4.2%，低于前 ...

Global Economic Overview - In Q1 2025, the global economy showed a simultaneous weakening in both supply and demand, with agricultural output growth slowing and service sector sentiment declining [1][4][6] - Consumer spending growth has slowed, private investment remains weak, and government spending is experiencing moderate growth, leading to an increased risk of global inflation rebound [1][4][6] - In Q2 2025, global economic downturn risks are expected to rise, with both demand and supply likely to face pressure [1][4][12] Major Economies Analysis - The US economy is facing weakening growth expectations and rising stagflation risks due to Trump's new policies, while Europe shows signs of recovery driven by fiscal policy, albeit with varying growth trajectories among countries [2][4][12] - Japan's economic outlook has improved, but external demand growth is uncertain; South Korea faces multiple challenges with heightened downside risks [2][4][12] - India's economic growth is rebounding, but potential impacts from tariff policies are concerning; Canada and Mexico are experiencing slowing growth due to tariff impacts [2][4][12] International Financial Markets - Cross-border capital flows remain low, with adjustments in securities investment flows; the currency market is tight, and liquidity varies across regions [2][4][12] - Global debt levels are rising, with policy factors continuing to influence the US and European bond markets; stock market fundamentals remain stable, but policy uncertainties are increasing market volatility [2][4][12] - Commodity prices are experiencing increased volatility, with a sustained upward trend in gold prices [2][4][12] Trade and Tariff Policies - Trump's tariff policies are beginning to impact global trade, with significant tariff increases on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico, leading to varied export performance among major economies [19][20][21] - The potential for a new round of global trade wars is increasing, with affected economies seeking to negotiate trade arrangements and implement countermeasures [19][20][21] - The global trade risk is accumulating as major economies engage in tariff policy battles, with Canada and the EU already announcing retaliatory tariffs against US goods [19][20][21]