霍尔木兹海峡局势趋紧，关注美国2月非农数据 市场分析 伊朗局势再度升级。2月28日美国以色列对伊朗进行了空袭，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊可能遇袭身亡，伊朗政府宣布 为期40天的全国哀悼。随后伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队展开大规模反击。截至目前，中东及周边地区多处能源与生产设 施遭打击损毁，地区生产与供应链受到显著冲击，冲突范围持续扩大。伊朗局势主要影响的品种集中在原油、甲 醇、LPG、贵金属和航运板块。冲突是否会转入地面战争以及霍尔木兹海峡是关键。美国总统特朗普当地时间2日 表示，不达目标不停战，不排除"必要时"对伊朗派遣美军地面部队，但他认为对伊朗的军事行动进展远超原计划， 没有必要对伊朗采取地面军事行动。霍尔木兹海峡的封锁概率较低，历史上从未被完全封锁。伊朗政权更迭后的 政治方向不明朗，可能影响原油出口和核武谈判。原油和黄金短期可能走高，但参考历史事件，市场可能呈现"卖 事实"的表现。而一旦事件升级，将进一步抬升全球通胀风险。当地时间5日上午，伊朗哈塔姆·安比亚中央司令部 副司令阿米尔·海达里在接受采访时表示，伊朗方面并未封锁霍尔木兹海峡。在战争时期，霍尔木兹海峡的通行规 则将由伊朗方面掌控。美国、以色列以及欧洲国家及其 ...

FICC日报 | 2026-02-27 人民币升破6.83关口，关注美国1月PPI数据 市场分析 国内春节假期期间，海外地缘风险不断。首先是伊朗紧张，伊朗与美国第三轮间接谈判于26日在日内瓦举行。美 国特使透露，特朗普政府要求未来任何伊核协议必须"无限期有效"，绝不接受设定到期（日落）条款。当前谈判 重点为伊朗本土铀浓缩及库存处理。美方强调不允许伊朗拥核，倾向外交解决；伊朗则表示愿签新协议确保核计 划和平性质，以避免战争。此前，特朗普曾公开表示考虑对伊朗进行"初步的有限军事打击"，并给出约10-15天的"最 后期限"，否则将面临严重后果。其次是美国"对等关税"被宣布违法，2月20日，美国最高法院以6票对3票的投票结 果裁定，1977年出台的《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）并未赋予总统在未经国会批准时征收关税的权力。同日， 特朗普宣布将依据《1974年贸易法》第122条，征收"全球进口关税"，税率10%，为期150天，以取代被最高法院认 定违法的关税，该关税2月24日已经正式生效。当地时间2月21日，美国总统特朗普在其社交平台"真实社交"上发 文称，将把对全球商品加征10%的进口关税的税率水平提高至15%， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall inflation narrative remains unchanged, and domestic policies are clearly driving up inflation. The overseas situation is mainly influenced by Trump's policies. The sharp decline in precious metals does not change the long - term trend, but short - term volatility risks need to be watched out for [1]. - In the short term, be vigilant about market fluctuations. The long - term supply constraints in the non - ferrous sector have not been alleviated, and precious metals have allocation value again after the adjustment. The energy sector has short - term geopolitical support for oil prices, but there are still threats from Venezuela's long - term production increase expectations [2]. - The strategy for commodities and stock index futures is to buy precious metals on dips [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 30, Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. After the news, silver fell more than 30% and gold fell 11%, the largest single - day decline since March 1980. The core of Trump's nomination is to cut interest rates and boost the real estate market, and Warsh's "balance - sheet reduction" needs more aggressive "interest - rate cuts" [1]. - On February 5, Bitcoin fell below $70,000, hitting a 15 - month low [1]. - The central economic work conference emphasized consumption promotion and anti - "involution" competition. The central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points on January 15. The Ministry of Finance issued five important policy documents on January 20 to boost inflation [1]. - The US manufacturing activity unexpectedly expanded in January, and the US ADP employment in January increased by 22,000, lower than the expected 45,000. The US and India reached a trade agreement, with the US "reciprocal tariff" on India dropping from 25% to 18% [1]. - The European Central Bank kept the deposit rate at 2% on Thursday, the fifth consecutive pause since last June. The Bank of England kept the interest rate at 3.75%, with an internal 5:4 vote close to a rate cut, sending a strong dovish signal [1] Commodity Analysis - Non - ferrous metals: Long - term supply constraints remain unrelieved, with high certainty [2]. - Precious metals: Have allocation value again after the adjustment [2]. - Energy: OPEC + plans to keep crude oil production stable in March. The US will "sell on commission" Venezuelan oil, and Trump hopes to lower the oil price to $50 per barrel. There are short - term geopolitical supports for oil prices, but long - term production increase expectations from Venezuela pose threats [2]. - Chemicals: Methanol, PTA and other varieties are relatively resistant to decline under the "anti - involution" and stock - commodity linkage [2]. - Agricultural products: Need to pay attention to weather expectations and short - term pig epidemic situations [2]. - Black commodities: Focus on domestic policy expectations and the possibility of low - valuation repair [2] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, buy precious metals on dips [3] Important News - Trump said that his nominee for Fed Chair would not be appointed if they expressed the intention to raise interest rates [1][4]. - The UK central bank kept the benchmark interest rate at 3.75%, in line with market expectations [4]. - The US - Iran nuclear negotiation plan was restored, and the negotiation will be held in Oman [4]. - The second round of Russia - US - Ukraine tripartite talks ended, and the US and Russia agreed to resume high - level military dialogue [1][4]. - The European Central Bank aims to keep inflation stable at 2% in the medium term and will decide the monetary policy stance based on data and meeting by meeting [4]. - The Bank of England had a 5:4 vote to keep the benchmark interest rate at 3.75%. Interest rates "are likely to be cut further", and inflation persistence risks are currently "less obvious" [4]

Economic Performance - Singapore's GDP grew by 3.8% year-on-year in Q1, down from 5.0% in the previous quarter [1] - The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) revised the GDP growth forecast for the year from 1.0%-3.0% to 0.0%-2.0% due to uncertainties such as the US's "reciprocal tariffs" [1][3] Sector Performance - Manufacturing output grew by 5.0% year-on-year in Q1, a decrease from 7.4% in the previous quarter, with a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter decline of 4.9% [1] - Construction output increased by 4.6% year-on-year, maintaining the previous quarter's growth rate of 4.4%, but saw a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.3% [1] - Wholesale and retail trade, transportation, and warehousing sectors grew by 4.2% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in the previous quarter [2] External Factors - MTI highlighted that the US's imposition of a 10% "baseline tariff" and increased tariffs on countries with significant trade surpluses will negatively impact global trade and economic growth [3] - The decline in external demand is expected to adversely affect Singapore's economy and the ASEAN region, leading to reduced consumer confidence and domestic investment [3][4] Financial Sector Impact - The financial and insurance sectors are anticipated to experience reduced trading activity due to risk-averse sentiment, negatively impacting net fees and commissions from banking and financial services [5] - The uncertain economic environment may suppress corporate capital investment and limit credit intermediation activities [5] Overall Economic Outlook - MTI expects external demand to weaken significantly by the end of the year, particularly affecting export-oriented sectors like manufacturing and wholesale trade [4] - The economic growth forecast for Singapore is expected to slow from 4.4% last year to between 0.0% and 2.0% this year [5]

Global Economic Overview - In Q1 2025, the global economy showed a simultaneous weakening in both supply and demand, with agricultural output growth slowing and service sector sentiment declining [1][4][6] - Consumer spending growth has slowed, private investment remains weak, and government spending is experiencing moderate growth, leading to an increased risk of global inflation rebound [1][4][6] - In Q2 2025, global economic downturn risks are expected to rise, with both demand and supply likely to face pressure [1][4][12] Major Economies Analysis - The US economy is facing weakening growth expectations and rising stagflation risks due to Trump's new policies, while Europe shows signs of recovery driven by fiscal policy, albeit with varying growth trajectories among countries [2][4][12] - Japan's economic outlook has improved, but external demand growth is uncertain; South Korea faces multiple challenges with heightened downside risks [2][4][12] - India's economic growth is rebounding, but potential impacts from tariff policies are concerning; Canada and Mexico are experiencing slowing growth due to tariff impacts [2][4][12] International Financial Markets - Cross-border capital flows remain low, with adjustments in securities investment flows; the currency market is tight, and liquidity varies across regions [2][4][12] - Global debt levels are rising, with policy factors continuing to influence the US and European bond markets; stock market fundamentals remain stable, but policy uncertainties are increasing market volatility [2][4][12] - Commodity prices are experiencing increased volatility, with a sustained upward trend in gold prices [2][4][12] Trade and Tariff Policies - Trump's tariff policies are beginning to impact global trade, with significant tariff increases on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico, leading to varied export performance among major economies [19][20][21] - The potential for a new round of global trade wars is increasing, with affected economies seeking to negotiate trade arrangements and implement countermeasures [19][20][21] - The global trade risk is accumulating as major economies engage in tariff policy battles, with Canada and the EU already announcing retaliatory tariffs against US goods [19][20][21]

Core Viewpoint - The report from the Bank of China Research Institute indicates an increase in global economic downturn risks in Q2 2025, with projected real GDP growth rates of approximately 2.6% for Q2 and 2.4% for the entire year [1] Demand Side Summary - The report highlights that U.S. tariff policies may trigger a chain reaction, leading to rising price levels that pressure global private consumption. Additionally, global investment activities are expected to remain sluggish, with government spending in the U.S. and EU showing divergence. Overall, the demand side is likely to contract in Q2 [1] Supply Side Summary - On the supply side, the global manufacturing recovery is anticipated to face cost shocks, while the service sector may gradually return to long-term trend levels. The report notes that despite good growth prospects for digitalization, automation, and related services, weakened expectations for employment and income growth will reduce spending on leisure and tourism. Thus, the supply side will continue to face pressure in Q2 [1] International Financial Market Summary - In terms of cross-border capital flows, global Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is expected to maintain low growth in Q2, with adjustments in securities investment flows. For the entire year of 2025, global FDI inflows are projected to remain flat or see slight increases compared to 2024 [1] Foreign Exchange Market Summary - The report anticipates a turning point in major currency trends, with increased volatility in global exchange rates. The U.S. dollar index is expected to fluctuate at high levels, while Asian currencies show overall resilience, and Eastern European currencies may face corrections. The overall volatility in the foreign exchange market is increasing, suggesting caution against rapid reversals in arbitrage trading [2] Bond Market Summary - The report predicts an overall rise in global debt levels in Q2, although the growth rate of debt is expected to slow further. Factors such as reduced supply pressure may lead to downward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields, while fiscal reforms in Germany and spillover effects are likely to increase volatility in the European bond market [2] Stock Market Summary - The global stock market fundamentals are considered relatively stable, but policy uncertainties are expected to increase market volatility. The report indicates that there remains upward momentum in global stock markets in Q2, with non-U.S. markets becoming more attractive. Technology stocks may show divergent trends, while the financial, power, and resource sectors are highlighted as areas of interest [2] Commodity Market Summary - The report forecasts increased volatility in global commodity prices in Q2. It notes that international oil demand growth may lag behind supply, putting continued pressure on oil prices. Gold prices are expected to experience short-term fluctuations but maintain an overall upward trend. Key minerals are anticipated to become a new battleground among nations, reshaping the global supply-demand landscape [2]