Economic Performance - Singapore's GDP grew by 3.8% year-on-year in Q1, down from 5.0% in the previous quarter [1] - The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) revised the GDP growth forecast for the year from 1.0%-3.0% to 0.0%-2.0% due to uncertainties such as the US's "reciprocal tariffs" [1][3] Sector Performance - Manufacturing output grew by 5.0% year-on-year in Q1, a decrease from 7.4% in the previous quarter, with a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter decline of 4.9% [1] - Construction output increased by 4.6% year-on-year, maintaining the previous quarter's growth rate of 4.4%, but saw a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.3% [1] - Wholesale and retail trade, transportation, and warehousing sectors grew by 4.2% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in the previous quarter [2] External Factors - MTI highlighted that the US's imposition of a 10% "baseline tariff" and increased tariffs on countries with significant trade surpluses will negatively impact global trade and economic growth [3] - The decline in external demand is expected to adversely affect Singapore's economy and the ASEAN region, leading to reduced consumer confidence and domestic investment [3][4] Financial Sector Impact - The financial and insurance sectors are anticipated to experience reduced trading activity due to risk-averse sentiment, negatively impacting net fees and commissions from banking and financial services [5] - The uncertain economic environment may suppress corporate capital investment and limit credit intermediation activities [5] Overall Economic Outlook - MTI expects external demand to weaken significantly by the end of the year, particularly affecting export-oriented sectors like manufacturing and wholesale trade [4] - The economic growth forecast for Singapore is expected to slow from 4.4% last year to between 0.0% and 2.0% this year [5]

Global Economic Overview - In Q1 2025, the global economy showed a simultaneous weakening in both supply and demand, with agricultural output growth slowing and service sector sentiment declining [1][4][6] - Consumer spending growth has slowed, private investment remains weak, and government spending is experiencing moderate growth, leading to an increased risk of global inflation rebound [1][4][6] - In Q2 2025, global economic downturn risks are expected to rise, with both demand and supply likely to face pressure [1][4][12] Major Economies Analysis - The US economy is facing weakening growth expectations and rising stagflation risks due to Trump's new policies, while Europe shows signs of recovery driven by fiscal policy, albeit with varying growth trajectories among countries [2][4][12] - Japan's economic outlook has improved, but external demand growth is uncertain; South Korea faces multiple challenges with heightened downside risks [2][4][12] - India's economic growth is rebounding, but potential impacts from tariff policies are concerning; Canada and Mexico are experiencing slowing growth due to tariff impacts [2][4][12] International Financial Markets - Cross-border capital flows remain low, with adjustments in securities investment flows; the currency market is tight, and liquidity varies across regions [2][4][12] - Global debt levels are rising, with policy factors continuing to influence the US and European bond markets; stock market fundamentals remain stable, but policy uncertainties are increasing market volatility [2][4][12] - Commodity prices are experiencing increased volatility, with a sustained upward trend in gold prices [2][4][12] Trade and Tariff Policies - Trump's tariff policies are beginning to impact global trade, with significant tariff increases on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico, leading to varied export performance among major economies [19][20][21] - The potential for a new round of global trade wars is increasing, with affected economies seeking to negotiate trade arrangements and implement countermeasures [19][20][21] - The global trade risk is accumulating as major economies engage in tariff policy battles, with Canada and the EU already announcing retaliatory tariffs against US goods [19][20][21]

从需求端看，报告指出，鉴于美国关税政策或引发连锁反应，物价水平上升导致全球私人消费承压，同 时全球投资活动或延续低迷态势，美国、欧盟成员国等政府支出表现或也分化，综合看二季度需求端大 概率将会收缩。 从供给端看，报告预计，全球制造业复苏将面临成本冲击，服务业则或逐渐回归长期趋势水平。例如一 方面，在新一轮科技革命下，数字化、智能化和自动化等服务需求仍具有较好增长前景；但另一方面， 居民就业和收入增长预期转弱，将减少休闲娱乐和旅游等支出。综合看二季度供给端也将继续承压。 再聚焦国际金融市场来看，在跨境资本流动方面，报告预计，二季度全球FDI或延续低增速，证券投资 流向面临新调整；而2025年全年全球FDI流入规模较2024年将持平或小幅提升。 转自：新华财经 新华财经北京3月27日电（记者余蕊 翟卓）中国银行研究院27日发布《全球经济金融展望报告（2025年 第2季度）》，预计二季度全球经济下行风险提高，或延续总需求、总供给同步回落特征；预计二季度 全球实际GDP增速在2.6%左右；全年实际GDP增速在2.4%左右。 股票市场方面，全球股市基本面或较为稳固，但政策不确定性将增加市场波动。具体来看，报告提到， 二 ...