Group 1 - Gold futures prices have risen significantly, trading at $4,075, up over $75 from the day's low, with gold-related ETFs showing relative strength [1] - Concerns about the U.S. economy are increasing due to the ongoing government shutdown, which is supporting gold as a traditional store of value [1] - Long-term concerns regarding global monetary credit and public debt are driving demand for precious metals, while short-term events have led to reduced volatility [1] Group 2 - In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic gold production reached 271.782 tons, an increase of 3.714 tons or 1.39% year-on-year, with imported gold contributing 121.149 tons, up 8.94% [2] - Total gold production in China for the first three quarters of 2025 was 392.931 tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.60% [2] - Gold consumption in China decreased to 682.730 tons, down 7.95% year-on-year, with significant declines in gold jewelry consumption, while gold bars and coins saw a 24.55% increase [2]

Core Viewpoint - The fluctuations in gold prices should not be interpreted as signs of a market crash, as they are part of normal market behavior driven by underlying economic factors [1][3]. Market Dynamics - Concerns about gold "crashing" often stem from fears of buying at high prices, but gold is fundamentally supported by global monetary credit and demand for safe-haven assets [3]. - Recent geopolitical tensions led to a temporary increase in gold prices, followed by a correction, which is a normal market reaction rather than a crash [3]. Economic Indicators - A significant change in the underlying logic that supports gold prices would be required for a true market crash, such as aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, a robust global economy reducing the need for gold as a safe haven, or a sudden strengthening of the US dollar [3][4]. - Current trends indicate that central banks are still purchasing gold, and market speculation is focused on potential interest rate cuts rather than hikes, suggesting continued support for gold prices [4]. Investment Strategy - Investors should clarify their motivations for buying gold: whether for short-term gains or as a long-term asset protection strategy [4]. - For long-term investors, monitoring Federal Reserve interest rates, global risk sentiment, and central bank gold purchases is more relevant than short-term price fluctuations [4].