（原标题：随着消费者信心的急剧下降，泰经济衰退势头进一步加剧） 总体而言，波恩猜表示泰国的经济稳定性依然良好。这一情况从8月份的通胀数据中可见一斑：当 时整体通胀率为-0.79%，核心通胀率为0.81%。截至7月底，泰国公共债务占国内生产总值的比例为 64.5%，仍符合《国家财政与金融纪律法》所规定的财政纪律框架要求。外部稳定性也依然强劲，足以 抵御全球经济波动带来的风险。这一点的体现是国际储备水平——截至8月底，国际储备规模已高达 2674亿美元。 据曼谷邮报9月30日报道,根据泰国财政政策办公室的数据，8月份泰国的经济依然表现疲软：私人消费 放缓，农民收入下降，同时由于美国征收关税的影响，出口也出现了疲软趋势。泰国消费促进局局长波 恩猜在周一表示，与去年同期相比，8月份的私人消费出现了放缓趋势，尤其是在耐用品消费方面。8月 份实际农业收入同比下降了10.8%；与此同时，消费者信心指数也从上个月的51.7点跌至50.1点。这些 现象反映了经济复苏的步伐缓慢、生活成本居高不下，以及人们对地缘政治紧张局势的担忧。与去年同 期相比，民间投资保持稳定。从资本货物进口数据来看，8月份民间在机械设备领域的投资同比增长了 ...

法国新任总理勒科尔尼26日说，法国政府计划在2026年把财政赤字率控制在国内生产总值的4.7%，并 在2029年进一步降低至约3%。 法国国家统计和经济研究所25日发布的数据显示，法国公共债务在今年二季度进一步攀升，达到国内生 产总值的115.6%，约为3.4万亿欧元。 法国2025年财政预算目标是把财政赤字率降低到国内生产总值的5.4%。今年7月，时任总理贝鲁公布 2026年财政预算草案，目标包括削减财政支出438亿欧元，并将赤字率降至国内生产总值的4.6%。但草 案提出的一些紧缩举措引发巨大争议。贝鲁9月8日在国民议会信任投票中未能过关，被迫辞职。时任国 防部长勒科尔尼次日被任命为总理。 勒科尔尼当天接受《巴黎人报》专访，介绍2026年财政预算草案的主要内容。他说，2026年通过削减日 常财政支出可节省60亿欧元。政府还将加强对社会支出和地方政府开支的管控，就打击税务和社保欺诈 出台法案。同时，政府将加大民生投入，计划增加60亿欧元养老金预算、50亿欧元医疗卫生预算。 （文章来源：新华社） 他表示，将在10月国民议会秋季例会期间，将2026年财政预算草案提交议会讨论审议。草案吸纳与工 会、雇主组织及主要政 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that France's sovereign credit rating has been downgraded by two agencies in one week, reflecting severe consequences of political and economic instability [1][2] - The recent political turmoil includes the collapse of Prime Minister Borne's government due to failed confidence votes on budget deficit reduction measures, leading to the appointment of a new Prime Minister, Sebastien Lecornu, without stabilizing the political situation [1][2] - Morningstar DBRS indicates that the political environment and increasing government instability hinder the effectiveness of France's fiscal policy setting, raising execution risks for achieving fiscal targets in the coming years [1][2] Group 2 - Fitch downgraded France's sovereign credit rating from "AA-" to "A+" due to political divisions obstructing necessary reforms, which negatively impacts public finances and is expected to worsen public debt from 113.9% of GDP in 2025 to 121% by 2027 [2] - Political and fiscal turmoil has led to asset sell-offs in France, increasing borrowing costs relative to other European countries, with bond premiums nearly doubling since Macron's election call [2] - Despite exceeding growth expectations in the first half of the year, uncertainty is projected to lead to a more sluggish economy, as businesses and households hesitate on investment and consumption [2][3] Group 3 - Lecornu has not yet clarified how to negotiate with opposition lawmakers demanding tax increases and slower deficit reduction, with the primary task being to form a new government in a divided parliament [2][3] - Morningstar DBRS believes Lecornu's measures may be relatively weak, as previous proposals for significant tax increases and budget cuts were rejected by opposition votes [3] - The outlook for France's rating has been adjusted from "negative" to "stable," indicating some advantages as the second-largest economy in the Eurozone, but warns of potential further downgrades if structural fiscal imbalances and debt ratios continue to rise [3]

据佛得角《岛屿快报》9月4日报道，佛得角公共财政委员会（ ）发布报 告显示，该国2025年上半年国家预算执行情况良好，录得9.252亿埃斯库多 （约合982万美元）的预算盈余，约占GDP的0.3%，与去年同期21亿埃斯库多 （约合2229万美元）的预算赤字形成鲜明对比。其中，预算收入达375亿埃斯 库多（约合4亿美元），同比增长17%，主要受税收（+15.6%）和社会缴款 （+22.6%）增长驱动；公共支出为365亿埃斯库多（约合3.9亿美元），同比增 长6.9%，但执行率仅为34.8%，主要受资本性支出执行率不佳影响。尽管佛上 半年净减债11亿埃斯库多（约合1167万美元），其公共债务总额仍处高位，达 2989亿埃斯库多（约合31.7亿美元），占GDP的98.6%，其中67.1%为外债，以 多边机构债务为主。 （原标题：佛得角2025年上半年国家预算执行情况良好） ...

Core Insights - Azerbaijan's Ministry of Finance predicts an inflation rate of 5.4% for the year 2025, which is an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the April forecast of 5.1% and 0.8 percentage points higher than the initial prediction of 4.6% [1] - The increase in inflation is attributed to changes in the prices of imported commodities and adjustments in tax rates for specific goods and services [1] - The Ministry forecasts that by the beginning of 2026, Azerbaijan's external debt will reach $4.87 billion, domestic debt will amount to $11.84 billion, and the total public debt will be $16.71 billion [1]

Group 1 - The Vietnamese Ministry of Finance reported a significant decrease in public debt as a percentage of GDP, dropping from 55.9% in 2020 to 34% in 2024 [1] - Government debt as a percentage of GDP is projected to be 31.8% in 2024, down from 49.9% in 2020, while government-guaranteed debt will decrease to 2.2% [1] - External debt as a percentage of GDP is also expected to decline from 47.9% in 2020 to 27.9% in 2024, indicating reduced reliance on external loans [1] Group 2 - The government debt service burden relative to national budget revenue is expected to decrease from 21.2% in 2020 to 18.9% in 2024 [1] - There is an increasing trend in the ratio of external debt repayment to the value of goods and services exports, rising from 5.7% in 2020 to 7.8% in 2024, suggesting a need for continued export growth to maintain debt repayment capacity [1] - The National Assembly of Vietnam has set a public debt ceiling not to exceed 60% of GDP, with a warning threshold of 55% [2]

Group 1 - European major stock indices opened collectively lower, with the German DAX30 down 0.56%, the UK FTSE 100 down 0.50%, the French CAC40 down 1.31%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.88% [1] - As of the report, the French CAC40 index's decline expanded to 1.89%, currently at 7694.59 points, with BNP Paribas shares falling 4.7%, marking the largest drop in the CAC40 index [1] - French Prime Minister Borne announced plans to request a confidence vote in the National Assembly, expected to take place on September 8, amid serious economic and political challenges facing France [1][2] Group 2 - Borne highlighted that public debt has been increasing by €12 million every hour over the past 20 years, with interest payments projected to become the largest budget item, estimated at €66 billion this year and potentially reaching €75 billion next year [1] - The decline in European stocks may also be influenced by U.S. President Trump's recent actions, including the dismissal of Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook over mortgage fraud allegations, which led to a drop in U.S. stocks and affected European market sentiment [2] - Morgan Stanley's latest forecast indicates that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and December, a shift from previous predictions that rates would remain unchanged until 2025 [2]

Key Points - As of July 1, Azerbaijan's external debt stands at $5.01 billion, with 85.1% in US dollars, 6.5% in euros, 3.4% in SDR, 3.3% in Japanese yen, and 1.7% in other currencies [1] - The structure of external debt interest rates shows that 49.3% is at floating rates while 50.7% is at fixed rates [1] - In terms of repayment terms, 49.9% of external debt has a maturity of less than 5 years, 44.1% must be repaid within 5 to 10 years, and 6% has a maturity of over 10 years [1] - Concurrently, domestic debt amounts to 171.8 million manats ($10.11 billion), with 80.3 million manats ($4.72 billion) in government securities and 91.5 million manats ($5.38 billion) in government-guaranteed debt [1] - The maturity structure of government securities indicates that 12.9% are 1-year bonds, 57% are 2 to 3-year bonds, and 30.1% are long-term bonds of 5 years or more [1]

Core Viewpoint - Current market sentiment is described as "cautiously optimistic in a high-risk era" by DWS's Chief Investment Officer Vincenzo Vedda [1] Group 1: Market Valuation and Performance - U.S. stock valuations are high, but the distribution of this year's "leading stocks" is more balanced compared to previous years, which is beneficial for the market [1] - The performance of companies in the S&P 500, excluding technology and financial sectors, may be disappointing [1] Group 2: Economic Concerns - Expected fiscal stimulus measures have not materialized as anticipated, and the outlook for public debt is increasingly viewed as an economic burden [1] - Current valuations of stocks and corporate bonds are generally high, indicating low tolerance for negative news, which could lead to rapid declines in asset prices if adverse information arises [1]

Group 1 - DWS's Chief Investment Officer Vincenzo Vedda expects an increase in bond prices in the US and Eurozone, leading to a decline in yields [1] - Weak US labor market data may prompt the Federal Reserve to consider early interest rate cuts, but it is premature to claim that US Treasuries have lost their appeal to international investors [1] - Ongoing uncertainties from US-Russia tensions and trade conflicts may lead the European Central Bank to further reduce interest rates [1] Group 2 - Current market sentiment is described as "cautiously optimistic in a high-risk era," with a more balanced distribution of leading stocks compared to previous years [1] - Despite high valuations in the US stock market, the performance of companies outside the technology and financial sectors in the S&P 500 may be disappointing [1] - High valuations in both stocks and corporate bonds indicate low tolerance for negative news, suggesting that asset prices could decline rapidly upon adverse developments [1]