Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has ranked Ghana as the fourth largest debtor country, with Egypt, Côte d'Ivoire, and Kenya occupying the top three positions [1] Group 1: Debt Rankings - As of February 2026, Ghana's debt stands at 19.6 billion Special Drawing Rights (SDR), approximately 2.84 billion USD, a decrease from 28.5 billion SDR in December 2025 [1] - Egypt leads Africa with an outstanding debt of 5.88 billion USD, followed by Côte d'Ivoire at 3.62 billion USD and Kenya at 2.93 billion USD [1] - Angola ranks fifth with a debt of 2.49 billion USD [1] Group 2: Public Debt Changes - According to the Bank of Ghana, the country's total public debt decreased by approximately 40 billion Ghanaian Cedis due to exchange rate fluctuations, bringing it down to 644.6 billion Ghanaian Cedis [1] - In USD terms, public debt fell from 5.78 billion USD to 5.72 billion USD during the period from September to November 2025 [1]

Group 1 - The French government officially announced the 2026 national budget, concluding a four-month parliamentary debate, which is expected to lead to a relatively stable governance period under Prime Minister Le Maire [1] - The target for the public finance deficit rate for 2026 is set at around 5%, higher than the initial target of 4.7% but lower than the 5.4% projected for 2025 [1] - Public spending cuts remain the main focus of the budget, while defense spending will increase by €6.5 billion [1] Group 2 - The budget negotiations caused disturbances in the French bond market, raising investor concerns about the fiscal outlook [2] - As of the end of Q3 2025, France's total public debt reached €3,482.2 billion, accounting for 117.4% of GDP [2] - Analysts indicate that France faces significant consolidation pressure amid the EU's tightening fiscal discipline, with the current deficit and debt levels well above the EU's standards [2]

Core Viewpoint - The French government has officially announced the 2026 national budget, marking the conclusion of a four-month parliamentary debate, amidst a politically divided landscape following President Macron's dissolution of the National Assembly in 2024 [1]. Group 1: Budget Overview - The 2026 budget aims to control the public finance deficit rate at around 5%, which is higher than the initially set target of 4.7% but lower than the 2025 rate of 5.4% [1]. - The core direction of the budget remains focused on reducing public spending, although defense spending will see an increase of €6.5 billion [1]. - The government plans to maintain overall stability in the current tax framework, but the introduction of several new tax measures may lead to dissatisfaction among the business community [1]. Group 2: Debt and Fiscal Challenges - As of the end of Q3 2025, France's total public debt reached €3,482.2 billion, accounting for 117.4% of the GDP [1]. - According to EU regulations, member states must keep their fiscal deficit below 3%, indicating that France's current deficit and debt levels significantly exceed this standard, posing a challenging fiscal adjustment task in the coming years [1].

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns the Japanese government to maintain the independence of the Bank of Japan and control fiscal expansion, advising against reducing consumption tax to address living costs [2] Monetary Policy - The IMF emphasizes that the independence and credibility of the Bank of Japan are crucial for stabilizing inflation expectations [2] - The report suggests that the Bank of Japan should continue to exit monetary easing, aiming for the policy interest rate to reach neutral levels by 2027 [2] Fiscal Policy - The IMF advises against further fiscal loosening in the short term, which contradicts the campaign promise of "responsible active fiscal policy" proposed by the current administration [2] - While Japan has some fiscal space, the IMF stresses the need for fiscal restraint to solidify fiscal buffers and maintain the ability to respond to shocks [2] - The IMF predicts that Japan's government fiscal deficit will widen in the long term, with increasing spending pressures and a further rise in total public debt [2] - The IMF highlights that high debt levels, combined with deteriorating fiscal conditions, pose a series of shocks to the Japanese economy [2] Consumption Tax - Regarding the proposed two-year "zero food consumption tax" campaign promise, the IMF explicitly states that reducing consumption tax should be avoided, as it would compress fiscal space and increase fiscal risks [2]

Group 1 - The IMF warns the Japanese government to maintain the independence of the Bank of Japan and control fiscal expansion, avoiding tax cuts as a response to livelihood issues [1][2] - The IMF emphasizes that the independence and credibility of the Bank of Japan are crucial for stabilizing inflation expectations, recommending a continued exit from monetary easing with a target policy rate reaching neutral levels by 2027 [1] - The IMF expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates twice this year and again in 2027 [1] Group 2 - The IMF predicts that Japan's fiscal deficit will widen, with increasing spending pressures and public debt remaining among the highest in major economies [2] - Interest payments on Japan's debt are expected to double by 2031 compared to 2025 due to higher yields on existing debt [2] - The IMF advises against the proposed two-year "zero food consumption tax" campaign promise, stating that such non-targeted tax cuts would compress fiscal space and increase financial risks [2]

Core Insights - Ghana's public debt decreased by 40 billion cedis between September and November 2025, totaling 644.6 billion cedis (approximately 57.2 billion USD), which is about 45.5% of the GDP [1] Debt Overview - As of November 2025, the total public debt in USD was 57.2 billion, down from 57.8 billion in October but up from 55.1 billion in September [1] - The public debt had previously decreased by 156.4 billion cedis from March to May 2025, reaching 612.0 billion cedis, but then increased until a significant drop in October [1] Debt Structure - In November 2025, external debt amounted to 29.3 billion USD, a decrease of 0.68% from the previous month, representing 23.3% of GDP [1] - Domestic debt fell from 317.6 billion cedis in September to 314.5 billion cedis, accounting for 22.2% of GDP [1] Fiscal Performance - The fiscal deficit in November 2025 was 1.4% of GDP, while the primary fiscal balance showed a surplus of 2.8% of GDP, indicating structural improvement in fiscal conditions [1] - As of October 2026, public debt is projected to reach 630.2 billion cedis, suggesting ongoing challenges in debt management [1]

Core Viewpoint - Brazil's primary fiscal deficit is projected to reach 0.48% of GDP in 2025, reflecting an increase in fiscal transparency and efforts to correct fiscal distortions [1] Group 1: Fiscal Deficit - The inclusion of judicial ruling debts in the deficit calculation indicates a rise in fiscal transparency [1] - Excluding judicial ruling debts, the fiscal deficit aligns with the "zero deficit" target set at the beginning of the year [1] Group 2: Public Debt - The main pressure on public debt is attributed to high interest rates [1]

Economic Growth Outlook - France's economic growth is projected to be 0.9% in 2025 and 1% in 2026, with a notable acceleration in GDP growth of 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, indicating enhanced economic momentum [1] - The recovery in the French economy is attributed to multiple factors, including improved economic momentum in the second half of 2025, stabilization in investment, and better-than-expected industrial recovery [1] Sector Performance - The aerospace sector's easing supply constraints contributed to a 1.3% quarter-on-quarter increase in manufacturing output, while manufacturing exports rose by 4.8% and corporate investments increased by 0.8% [1] - The monthly business survey by the Bank of France indicates continued improvement in economic activity, particularly in the industrial sector, with key indicators remaining above long-term averages for six consecutive months [2] Inflation and Consumer Power - As of November 2025, France's inflation rate increased by 0.9% year-on-year, remaining relatively low within the Eurozone, which supports consumer purchasing power and provides a predictable environment for businesses [1] - The stability in industrial sales prices and a slight increase in service prices were noted, with 8% of industrial firms reporting significant supply difficulties and 16% facing recruitment challenges, both showing a decrease from previous levels [2] Structural Challenges - Despite improved growth prospects, France's economy faces structural pressures, with public debt reaching €348.22 billion, accounting for 117.4% of GDP, and a projected fiscal deficit of 5.5% of GDP for 2025, significantly above the EU's 3% limit [3] - The French parliament has not yet formally approved the 2026 budget, leading the government to propose a "special law" to continue taxation and borrowing, which is crucial for maintaining normal operations of state institutions [3]

Economic Growth Outlook - France's economic growth is projected to be 0.9% in 2025 and 1% in 2026, with a notable acceleration in GDP growth of 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025 compared to Q2 [1] - The recovery in the French economy is attributed to multiple factors, including improved economic momentum in the second half of 2025, stabilization in investment, and better-than-expected industrial recovery [1] Sector Performance - The aerospace sector's easing supply constraints contributed to a 1.3% quarter-on-quarter increase in manufacturing output, while manufacturing exports rose by 4.8% and corporate investments increased by 0.8% [1] - A monthly business survey by the Bank of France indicated continued improvement in economic activity, particularly in the industrial sector, with key industries like computers, electronics, and optics driving growth [2] Inflation and Consumer Prices - France's inflation rate rose by 0.9% year-on-year in November 2025, remaining relatively low within the Eurozone, which helps stabilize consumer purchasing power expectations [1] - The stability in industrial sales prices and a slight increase in service prices were noted, with 8% of industrial firms reporting significant supply difficulties and 16% facing recruitment challenges, both showing a decrease from previous levels [2] Structural Challenges - Despite improved growth prospects, France's economy faces structural pressures, with public debt reaching €348.22 billion, accounting for 117.4% of GDP, and a projected fiscal deficit of 5.5% of GDP for 2025, significantly above the EU's 3% limit [3] - The French parliament has not yet formally approved the 2026 budget, leading the government to propose a "special law" to continue tax collection and borrowing, which is crucial for maintaining normal operations of state institutions [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government is set to finalize the budget draft for the fiscal year 2026, with total expenditures expected to exceed 122 trillion yen for the first time, marking a historical high [1] Group 1: Expenditure Drivers - The increase in expenditures is primarily driven by two factors: rising social welfare costs and new fiscal support measures aimed at alleviating the impact of rising living costs on households and businesses [1] - These policy directions reflect Japan's fiscal priorities amid the challenges of an aging population and concurrent inflationary pressures [1] Group 2: Debt and Financing - With rising interest rates, the financing costs of Japan's substantial public debt have significantly increased, with expenditures for debt repayment expected to exceed 30 trillion yen in fiscal year 2026, up from a record 28.2 trillion yen in fiscal year 2025 [1] - Despite anticipated nominal tax revenues surpassing the historical high of 80.6 trillion yen for the current fiscal year, fiscal revenues are still unlikely to cover the gap created by the expansion of expenditures [1] - To address the budget deficit, the government plans to issue slightly over 28.6 trillion yen (approximately 182 billion USD) in new government bonds for fiscal year 2026, continuing the trend of high bond issuance seen in recent years [1]