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中方抛售3096亿美债,美专家惊呼:中国的王牌奏效了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-08 13:56
美国这边,政府停摆刚落地,财政拖欠工资、服务陷入瘫痪;中国那边,美债减持的消息一出,市场立马起了波澜。 这不是情绪化的反应,更不是赌气式的退场,而是有节奏、有步骤的资产重配。 换句话说,不是临时起意,是早有打算。 过去三年,中国手里的美债一边在减持,一边在换仓。虽然有时候还小幅增持几笔,但大方向没变,就是一点点往外抽。 这种方式不是砸盘,而是让市场慢慢适应。既不引发震荡,也不损害自身利益,关键是传递出一个信号:美债并非不可替代,美元也不是绝对安全。 特别是今年以来,美国财政上的不确定性越来越多,债务总量高得惊人,利息开销也压得财政喘不过气。 这种背景下,中国选择把部分美债换成其他资产,比如黄金,实际上就是在给自己防风险。既是对局势的回应,也是对未来的主动准备。 说到底,美国政府这次"关门"并不新鲜,历史上早就不是第一次了。但这回情况不一样,背后的经济压力更大,政治分歧更深,财政问题更棘手。 两件事一前一后发生,背后关联可不只是巧合。 中美之间这场看不见硝烟的较量,已经从贸易口水战,走到了金融实战场。有人说,中国这回是真把"美债"这张底牌打出效果了。 中国减持美债,其实不是今天才开始做的决定。从前几年起,相关操 ...
美联储降息25个基点,人民币强势崛起,中国成大赢家?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-21 07:47
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the benchmark interest rate, reducing the range from 4.25%-4.50% to 4.00%-4.25%, which is expected to have widespread implications for the financial markets [2][3] - The term "risk management rate cut" was introduced, indicating that while the U.S. economy is still functioning, there are warning signs that necessitate preemptive measures to avoid larger issues [3][5] - The employment data for August showed only 22,000 new jobs added, significantly below the normal range of 150,000 to 200,000, indicating companies are tightening their hiring practices [5][9] Group 2 - The unemployment rate increased from 4.1% to 4.3%, marking the highest level in nearly four years, which suggests a tougher job market for Americans [5][21] - The Fed's decision to cut rates is influenced by political pressures, particularly from former President Trump, who has been vocal about the need for more aggressive rate cuts [7][9] - The Fed also indicated potential future rate cuts, with predictions of two additional 25 basis point cuts by 2025, suggesting a prolonged period of loose monetary policy [9][25] Group 3 - The stock market typically reacts positively to preventive rate cuts, as lower borrowing costs can facilitate business expansion and attract investors seeking higher returns [11][13] - There has been a significant influx of foreign capital into the Chinese market, with foreign holdings of A-shares reaching 2.57 trillion yuan, indicating renewed international interest in China's economic prospects [14][20] - The bond market is expected to benefit from the rate cut cycle, as existing bonds with higher yields become more valuable compared to new issues [16][21] Group 4 - The Fed's rate cut is seen as a turning point for the global financial landscape, prompting a reassessment of asset values and capital flows [25] - China's economic environment is expected to improve as external pressures from previous aggressive Fed rate hikes diminish, allowing for a more favorable investment climate [18][23] - The long-term outlook for China's economy remains stable due to its large domestic market, complete industrial chain, and advancing technological capabilities, which are attractive to long-term capital [23][25]