Group 1: Military Actions and Objectives - The core objective of the US-Israel military action is to restructure Iran's internal power dynamics and influence its nuclear policy according to US demands[6] - The military actions are expected to be ongoing, characterized by a "phased pressure" approach rather than a one-off strike, indicating a prolonged conflict[10] - The likelihood of ground troop deployment by the US in Iran is considered low due to political constraints and the nature of military objectives[27] Group 2: Iran's Response and Capabilities - Iran's response is anticipated to be more aggressive than previously expected, utilizing asymmetric retaliation and long-term attrition strategies against US and allied targets[23] - The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) holds significant political and military influence, with approximately 25% representation in Iran's political core, suggesting a continuation of hardline policies[15] - The potential for Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz poses a significant risk to global oil supply, which could lead to substantial price increases due to risk premiums[30] Group 3: Market Implications and Risk Assessment - Global risk assessments are expected to rise, with financial markets already pricing in military risks, particularly in gold and oil markets, which have seen fluctuations of around 2% following recent developments[31] - Non-US assets may face increased volatility, while the Chinese market could benefit from a relatively stable risk profile compared to other non-US markets[33] - The geopolitical landscape in the Middle East is undergoing significant changes, with potential implications for energy supply and pricing structures globally[10]

资产配置 | 定期报告 美伊事件压制风偏，全球风险评价分化 20260302 多资产配置周报 研究结论 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 03 日 | 郑月灵 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120003 | | --- | --- | | | zhengyueling@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号：S0860125060012 | | | zhoushiying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 董翱翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860125030016 | | | dongaoxiang@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 | | 地缘扰动和关税博弈强化中盘蓝筹涨价逻 | 2026-02-26 | | --- | --- | | 辑：20260222A 股风格及行业配置周报 | | | 海外地缘和降息节奏彰显国内风险评价下 | 2026-02-25 | | 行：20260222 多资产配置周报 | | | 前期热点波动上行，中盘蓝筹风险可控： | 2026-0 ...