2026年1月31日，国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布数据显示，1月份制造业采购 经理指数（PMI）为49.3%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落。 展望未来，付一夫认为，制造业PMI走势无须过度担忧：短期看，春节后企业集中复工复产，叠加逆周 期调节政策有望加码，2月PMI大概率稳中有升；中期看，政策对制造业的支持力度持续，高技术与装 备制造业的扩张韧性将带动整体复苏，全年PMI预计稳定在荣枯线上方，呈现短期修复、中期稳升态 势。 苏商银行特约研究员付一夫在接受《中国经营报》记者采访时分析称："1月制造业PMI有所回落，主要 源于季节性扰动与需求不足叠加的短期现象。春节临近导致企业提前停工、生产节奏放缓，叠加建筑业 淡季间接拖累需求，构成季节性主导因素；而内外需偏弱则是核心基本面制约。" 东方金诚统计数据显示，剔除2023年极端值后，过去十年中，1月制造业PMI指数呈现"八降二升"，平 均下行0.3个百分点。国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧解读称，1月份部分制造业行业进入 传统淡季，加之市场有效需求仍显不足，制造业景气水平较上月有所下降。 中国企业资本联盟副理事长柏文 ...

Core Insights - In November, China's total import and export value reached $549.03 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.3% [1][2] - Exports totaled $330.35 billion, growing by 5.9% year-on-year, while imports were $218.67 billion, up by 1.9% [1][2] - The trade surplus for November was $111.68 billion [1] Summary by Category Total Trade Value - The total import and export value for the first eleven months of the year was $5.75 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [2] - The total export value for the same period was $3.41 trillion, increasing by 5.4%, while imports were $2.34 trillion, showing a decline of 0.6% [2] Export Performance - November's export growth of 5.9% was a significant rebound, accelerating by 7.0 percentage points compared to the previous month [4] - The high base effect from the previous year diminished, contributing to the improved export figures [4] - Exports to the EU, Africa, and Latin America saw notable increases, while exports to the U.S. experienced a slight decline [4][5] Import Performance - November's import growth rose to 1.9%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month [6] - The increase in imports was supported by a lower base from the previous year and strong export performance driving the demand for intermediate goods [6] - Despite the growth, domestic investment and consumption have slowed, impacting the demand for bulk commodities and consumer goods [6]