早盘提示 早盘提示 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周一国债期货主力合约开盘全线高开，随后回落到前收盘附近窄幅波动至收盘，截 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 至收盘 | 30 | 年期国债期货主力合约 | TL2603 | 下跌 | 0.05%，10 | 年期 | T2603 | 上涨 | 0.03%，5 | 年期 | TF2603 | 下跌 | 0.02%，2 | 年期 | TS2603 | 下跌 | 0.03%。 | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1、公开市场：周一央行开展了 | 135 | 亿元 | 7 | 天期逆回购操作，当天有 | 4823 | 亿元逆回 | 购到期，当日合计净回笼 | ...

Core Insights - The national service production index in China increased by 4.2% year-on-year in November, indicating a positive trend in the service sector [2] - The information transmission, software and IT services, leasing and business services, and financial sectors showed significant growth, with production indices rising by 12.9%, 8.4%, and 5.1% respectively, outpacing the overall service production index [2] - For the period from January to November, the national service production index grew by 5.6%, while the revenue of large-scale service enterprises increased by 7.6% year-on-year from January to October [2] Industry Performance - The service business activity index stood at 49.5% in November, while the business activity expectation index was at 55.9%, indicating a generally optimistic outlook for the service industry [2] - Specific sectors such as railway transportation, telecommunications, and financial services reported business activity indices above 55.0%, reflecting a high level of economic activity [2] - The railway sector experienced record-breaking performance, with a total of 3.95 billion passengers transported in the first ten months of the year, marking a historical high for the same period [2]

本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 1、重要会议临近，市场高预期能兑现吗？ 2、人民币持续升值，提示什么机会？ 如有疑问请以音频内容为准，添加妙投小虎哥微信miaotou515，入群有机会与董小姐进一步交流。 新闻解读评级说明：五星重磅，四星重要，三星级以下大家选择听。 （文稿为机器转录，如有出入，请以音频为准） 每天10分钟拆解新闻背后的逻辑。大家好，今天是2025年的11月30号星期天，我是董小姐。 1、重要会议临近，市场高预期能兑现吗？ 马上就要进入12月，市场的氛围有没有起变化？我们先从周末的几条重要消息梳理逻辑。 市场关注点也在切换：国内政策"重头戏"——政治局会议和中央经济工作会议——都将在上旬召开。前 者定方向、定原则，后者排任务、细部署，但都不会透露明年GDP具体目标，这一数字要等到明年3月 两会才揭晓。于是这里存在预期差：市场盼"大招"，若会议临近却兑现不了，指数可能向下修正。 市场为何期待强刺激？最新宏观数据偏弱： 第一，11月制造业PMI仅比上月微升0.2，仍在50以下，整体收缩；服务业商务活动指数环比大降0.6， 也处于收缩区间。 第二，11月中旬公布的信贷数据显示实体经济融资需 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - In October 2025, China's CPI and core CPI both rose 0.2% month-on-month, and PPI rose 0.1% month-on-month, indicating a mild recovery in the inflation level. Due to base effects, the year-on-year CPI data for November is expected to show a significant rebound, while the year-on-year PPI data will remain roughly flat. China's economic activity continues to be in a mild state [5][16][17] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs CPI Analysis Year-on-Year Data - In October, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% year-on-year, against a market expectation of a 0.1% decline and a previous decline of 0.3%. From January to October, the average national consumer price decreased 0.1% compared with the same period of the previous year [2][6] - Food prices in October decreased 2.9% year-on-year, with the previous decrease being 4.4%, showing a significant narrowing of the year-on-year decline. Non-food prices rose 0.9% year-on-year, compared with a 0.7% increase in September [2][6] - Core CPI rose 1.2% year-on-year in October, compared with a 1.0% increase in September, and its year-on-year increase has been expanding for the past six months [2][6] - Consumer goods prices decreased 0.2% year-on-year in October, compared with a 0.8% decrease in September. Service prices rose 0.8% year-on-year, compared with a 0.6% increase in September [2][6] Month-on-Month Data - In October, CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month, compared with a 0.1% increase in the previous period. Food prices rose 0.3% month-on-month, rising for three consecutive months, with the previous increase being 0.7%. Non-food prices rose 0.2% month-on-month, compared with a 0.1% decrease in the previous period [3][7] - Consumer goods prices rose 0.2% month-on-month in October, compared with a 0.3% increase in the previous period. Affected by the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, service prices rose 0.2% month-on-month in October, compared with a 0.3% decrease in September [3][7] - Core CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month in October, compared with a flat level in September [3][7] Influencing Factors - The rapid rise of the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index in October this year promoted the month-on-month increase of CPI in October. The increase in agricultural product prices in November compared with the same period last year will help drive the year-on-year increase of CPI in November [9] - Domestic refined oil prices were reduced twice in October. The energy price in November is likely to have a downward impact on the month-on-month CPI [9] PPI Analysis Year-on-Year Data - In October, the national industrial producer price index (PPI) decreased 2.1% year-on-year, against a market expectation of a 2.3% decrease and a previous decrease of 2.3%. From January to October, the average PPI decreased 2.7% compared with the same period of the previous year [3][10] - Production material prices decreased 2.4% year-on-year in October, affecting the overall level of industrial producer prices to decrease by about 1.77 percentage points. Among them, mining industry prices decreased 7.8% year-on-year, raw material industry prices decreased 2.5% year-on-year, and processing industry prices decreased 1.9% year-on-year [10] - The year-on-year decline in ex-factory prices was relatively large in industries such as coal mining and washing, oil and gas extraction, chemical fiber manufacturing, etc. The year-on-year increase in ex-factory prices was relatively large in industries such as non-ferrous metal ore mining and dressing, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing [10] Month-on-Month Data - In October, PPI rose 0.1% month-on-month, the first month-on-month positive growth this year, compared with a flat level in the previous period. Production material prices rose 0.1% month-on-month, compared with a flat level in the previous period [3][11] - The month-on-month increase in prices was relatively large in industries such as non-ferrous metal ore mining and dressing, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, coal mining and washing, etc. The month-on-month decline in prices was relatively large in industries such as oil and gas extraction, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, chemical fiber manufacturing, etc. [4][12] - In October, the month-on-month change in consumer goods prices was flat, compared with a 0.2% decrease in the previous period. Among them, food prices decreased 0.1% month-on-month, clothing prices decreased 0.1% month-on-month, general daily necessities prices rose 0.7% month-on-month, and durable consumer goods prices decreased 0.3% month-on-month [13] PMI and Service Industry Index - In October, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.0%, remaining below the boom-bust line for the seventh consecutive month, compared with 49.8% in the previous period. The new order index in October was 48.8%, compared with 49.7% in the previous period, indicating a decline in manufacturing market demand [5][16][17] - In October, the service industry business activity index was 50.2%, compared with 50.1% in the previous month. The service industry sales price index was 47.7%, compared with 47.2% in the previous period. The service industry new order index was 46.0%, compared with 46.7% in the previous period [5][17]

Core Insights - The national service production index in July increased by 5.8% year-on-year [1] - The information transmission, software and IT services, financial services, and leasing and business services sectors saw production index growth of 11.9%, 8.7%, and 8.0% respectively, outpacing the overall service production index by 6.1, 2.9, and 2.2 percentage points [1] - From January to July, the national service production index grew by 5.9% year-on-year [1] Industry Performance - For the first half of the year, revenue from large-scale service enterprises increased by 7.5% year-on-year [1] - The service business activity index for July was recorded at 50.0%, while the business activity expectation index was at 56.6% [1] - Specific sectors such as railway transport, air transport, postal services, and cultural and sports entertainment had business activity indices above 60.0%, indicating a high level of economic activity [1]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - In April, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was reported at 49%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight contraction in the manufacturing sector [3] - High-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 51.5%, significantly above the overall manufacturing level, indicating continued expansion in this sector [5] - The new orders index for consumer goods manufacturing was at the critical point of 50%, suggesting a good release of domestic market demand [5] Group 2: Business Confidence and Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index for April was 52.1%, remaining in the expansion zone, reflecting strong confidence among enterprises regarding market development [5] - Industries such as food and beverage, automotive, and aerospace showed high expectation indices of 58% and above, indicating robust business activity [7] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.1%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point, indicating continued expansion [8] - The service sector, particularly tourism and information services, showed positive performance, contributing to the overall growth in non-manufacturing activities [8][9] Group 4: Construction Sector - The construction business activity index was reported at 51.9%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, yet still indicating expansion [9] - With the arrival of the construction peak season, civil engineering investment is accelerating, highlighting the role of investment in driving economic growth [10]