Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January is 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity due to seasonal factors and insufficient market demand [2] - The production index stands at 50.6%, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing production, while the new orders index is at 49.2%, reflecting a drop in market demand [2] - Certain industries such as agricultural processing and aerospace have production and new orders indices above 56.0%, indicating strong demand, while sectors like petroleum and automotive show indices below the critical point, suggesting a slowdown in market demand [2] Group 2 - The main raw materials purchasing price index and the factory price index are at 56.1% and 50.6%, respectively, both showing increases from the previous month, with the factory price index rising above the critical point for the first time in nearly 20 months [3] - Large enterprises maintain a PMI of 50.3%, indicating continued expansion, while medium and small enterprises show PMIs of 48.7% and 47.4%, reflecting a decline in their economic performance [3] - High-tech manufacturing leads with a PMI of 52.0%, remaining above 52.0% for two consecutive months, while consumer goods and high-energy industries show lower PMIs of 48.3% and 47.9%, indicating a decrease in their economic conditions [3] Group 3 - The production and business activity expectation index is at 52.6%, indicating optimism among enterprises, particularly in agricultural processing and food industries, which have indices above 56.0% [4] - The non-manufacturing business activity index for January is 49.4%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in overall non-manufacturing activity [4] - The service industry business activity index is at 49.5%, down 0.2 percentage points, with sectors like financial services showing high activity indices above 65.0%, while the real estate sector drops below 40.0%, indicating weak performance [4]

2026年1月31日，国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布数据显示，1月份制造业采购 经理指数（PMI）为49.3%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落。 展望未来，付一夫认为，制造业PMI走势无须过度担忧：短期看，春节后企业集中复工复产，叠加逆周 期调节政策有望加码，2月PMI大概率稳中有升；中期看，政策对制造业的支持力度持续，高技术与装 备制造业的扩张韧性将带动整体复苏，全年PMI预计稳定在荣枯线上方，呈现短期修复、中期稳升态 势。 苏商银行特约研究员付一夫在接受《中国经营报》记者采访时分析称："1月制造业PMI有所回落，主要 源于季节性扰动与需求不足叠加的短期现象。春节临近导致企业提前停工、生产节奏放缓，叠加建筑业 淡季间接拖累需求，构成季节性主导因素；而内外需偏弱则是核心基本面制约。" 东方金诚统计数据显示，剔除2023年极端值后，过去十年中，1月制造业PMI指数呈现"八降二升"，平 均下行0.3个百分点。国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧解读称，1月份部分制造业行业进入 传统淡季，加之市场有效需求仍显不足，制造业景气水平较上月有所下降。 中国企业资本联盟副理事长柏文 ...

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the growth of China's service industry, with a projected increase in value added by 5.4% in 2025 compared to the previous year [1] Group 1: Service Industry Growth - The value added in the information transmission, software, and IT services sector is expected to grow by 11.1% [1] - The leasing and business services sector is projected to increase by 10.3% [1] - The transportation, warehousing, and postal services sector is anticipated to grow by 5.2% [1] - The wholesale and retail sector is expected to see a growth of 5.0% [1] - The accommodation and catering sector is projected to grow by 4.9% [1] Group 2: Production and Business Activity Indices - In December, the service production index increased by 5.0% year-on-year [1] - The production indices for the information transmission, software, and IT services sector, leasing and business services sector, and financial sector grew by 14.8%, 11.3%, and 6.5% respectively [1] - From January to November, the operating revenue of large-scale service enterprises increased by 7.8% year-on-year [1] Group 3: Business Activity Indices - The business activity index for the service industry in December was 49.7%, up by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The business activity expectation index for the service industry rose to 56.4%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points [1] - Industries such as telecommunications, broadcasting, television, satellite transmission services, monetary financial services, and capital market services all had business activity indices above 60.0%, indicating a high level of prosperity [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the bond market is "volatile" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The 12 - month Chinese manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, while the service industry remained below the boom - bust line. The stock market's sharp rise on Monday suppressed bond market bulls, and Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short term [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Market Review** - On Monday, Treasury bond futures opened higher across the board, then fell back and fluctuated narrowly around the previous close until the close. By the close, the 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 fell 0.05%, the 10 - year T2603 rose 0.03%, the 5 - year TF2603 fell 0.02%, and the 2 - year TS2603 fell 0.03% [1] **Important Information** - **Open Market**: On Monday, the central bank conducted 13.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 482.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 468.8 billion yuan [1] - **Funds Market**: On Monday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funds market remained low. DR001's weighted average for the day was 1.26% (previous trading day: 1.24%); DR007's weighted average for the day was 1.43% (same as the previous trading day) [1] - **Cash Bond Market**: On Monday, the closing yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds mostly increased compared to the previous trading day. The 2 - year Treasury bond yield rose 2.91 BP to 1.38%, the 5 - year rose 1.31 BP to 1.64%, the 10 - year rose 1.57 BP to 1.86%, and the 30 - year rose 2.93 BP to 2.28% [1] - **Central Bank Data**: In December 2025, the central bank net - injected 50 billion yuan through open - market Treasury bond trading operations, marking the third consecutive month of such operations. In December, the central bank conducted 3.5361 trillion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, withdrew 3.4542 trillion yuan, achieving a net injection of 81.9 billion yuan. Other - term reverse repurchases had a net injection of 400 billion yuan. Through MLF, there was a net injection of 100 billion yuan, and through SLF, a net injection of 7.1 billion yuan [1] - **US Data**: The US December ISM manufacturing index slightly decreased from 48.2 to 47.9, remaining below 50 for 10 consecutive months [1] **Market Logic** - In December, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, returning to the expansion range after eight consecutive months below the boom - bust line. Manufacturing production and demand both entered the expansion range. The December service industry business activity index was 49.7%, remaining below the boom - bust line. The central bank's Q4 monetary policy committee meeting emphasized adjusting the intensity, rhythm, and timing of monetary policy. The new regulations on fund sales fees are favorable for the bond market. The stock market rose sharply on Monday, suppressing bond market bulls [1][2] **Trading Strategy** - Traders should conduct band operations [2]

Core Insights - The national service production index in China increased by 4.2% year-on-year in November, indicating a positive trend in the service sector [2] - The information transmission, software and IT services, leasing and business services, and financial sectors showed significant growth, with production indices rising by 12.9%, 8.4%, and 5.1% respectively, outpacing the overall service production index [2] - For the period from January to November, the national service production index grew by 5.6%, while the revenue of large-scale service enterprises increased by 7.6% year-on-year from January to October [2] Industry Performance - The service business activity index stood at 49.5% in November, while the business activity expectation index was at 55.9%, indicating a generally optimistic outlook for the service industry [2] - Specific sectors such as railway transportation, telecommunications, and financial services reported business activity indices above 55.0%, reflecting a high level of economic activity [2] - The railway sector experienced record-breaking performance, with a total of 3.95 billion passengers transported in the first ten months of the year, marking a historical high for the same period [2]

Group 1 - The market is anticipating significant policy announcements from the upcoming Political Bureau meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference, which are expected to set directions and tasks for the economy, but will not reveal the GDP target for next year until March [3][4] - There is a discrepancy in expectations as the market hopes for strong stimulus measures, but recent macroeconomic data has been weak, with the November manufacturing PMI only slightly increasing by 0.2 and remaining below 50, indicating overall contraction [4] - The service sector's business activity index saw a significant decline of 0.6, also remaining in the contraction zone, highlighting the need for potential stimulus [4] Group 2 - Recent credit data from mid-November indicates weak financing demand in the real economy, further supporting the need for policy intervention [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - In October 2025, China's CPI and core CPI both rose 0.2% month-on-month, and PPI rose 0.1% month-on-month, indicating a mild recovery in the inflation level. Due to base effects, the year-on-year CPI data for November is expected to show a significant rebound, while the year-on-year PPI data will remain roughly flat. China's economic activity continues to be in a mild state [5][16][17] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs CPI Analysis Year-on-Year Data - In October, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% year-on-year, against a market expectation of a 0.1% decline and a previous decline of 0.3%. From January to October, the average national consumer price decreased 0.1% compared with the same period of the previous year [2][6] - Food prices in October decreased 2.9% year-on-year, with the previous decrease being 4.4%, showing a significant narrowing of the year-on-year decline. Non-food prices rose 0.9% year-on-year, compared with a 0.7% increase in September [2][6] - Core CPI rose 1.2% year-on-year in October, compared with a 1.0% increase in September, and its year-on-year increase has been expanding for the past six months [2][6] - Consumer goods prices decreased 0.2% year-on-year in October, compared with a 0.8% decrease in September. Service prices rose 0.8% year-on-year, compared with a 0.6% increase in September [2][6] Month-on-Month Data - In October, CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month, compared with a 0.1% increase in the previous period. Food prices rose 0.3% month-on-month, rising for three consecutive months, with the previous increase being 0.7%. Non-food prices rose 0.2% month-on-month, compared with a 0.1% decrease in the previous period [3][7] - Consumer goods prices rose 0.2% month-on-month in October, compared with a 0.3% increase in the previous period. Affected by the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, service prices rose 0.2% month-on-month in October, compared with a 0.3% decrease in September [3][7] - Core CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month in October, compared with a flat level in September [3][7] Influencing Factors - The rapid rise of the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index in October this year promoted the month-on-month increase of CPI in October. The increase in agricultural product prices in November compared with the same period last year will help drive the year-on-year increase of CPI in November [9] - Domestic refined oil prices were reduced twice in October. The energy price in November is likely to have a downward impact on the month-on-month CPI [9] PPI Analysis Year-on-Year Data - In October, the national industrial producer price index (PPI) decreased 2.1% year-on-year, against a market expectation of a 2.3% decrease and a previous decrease of 2.3%. From January to October, the average PPI decreased 2.7% compared with the same period of the previous year [3][10] - Production material prices decreased 2.4% year-on-year in October, affecting the overall level of industrial producer prices to decrease by about 1.77 percentage points. Among them, mining industry prices decreased 7.8% year-on-year, raw material industry prices decreased 2.5% year-on-year, and processing industry prices decreased 1.9% year-on-year [10] - The year-on-year decline in ex-factory prices was relatively large in industries such as coal mining and washing, oil and gas extraction, chemical fiber manufacturing, etc. The year-on-year increase in ex-factory prices was relatively large in industries such as non-ferrous metal ore mining and dressing, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing [10] Month-on-Month Data - In October, PPI rose 0.1% month-on-month, the first month-on-month positive growth this year, compared with a flat level in the previous period. Production material prices rose 0.1% month-on-month, compared with a flat level in the previous period [3][11] - The month-on-month increase in prices was relatively large in industries such as non-ferrous metal ore mining and dressing, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, coal mining and washing, etc. The month-on-month decline in prices was relatively large in industries such as oil and gas extraction, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, chemical fiber manufacturing, etc. [4][12] - In October, the month-on-month change in consumer goods prices was flat, compared with a 0.2% decrease in the previous period. Among them, food prices decreased 0.1% month-on-month, clothing prices decreased 0.1% month-on-month, general daily necessities prices rose 0.7% month-on-month, and durable consumer goods prices decreased 0.3% month-on-month [13] PMI and Service Industry Index - In October, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.0%, remaining below the boom-bust line for the seventh consecutive month, compared with 49.8% in the previous period. The new order index in October was 48.8%, compared with 49.7% in the previous period, indicating a decline in manufacturing market demand [5][16][17] - In October, the service industry business activity index was 50.2%, compared with 50.1% in the previous month. The service industry sales price index was 47.7%, compared with 47.2% in the previous period. The service industry new order index was 46.0%, compared with 46.7% in the previous period [5][17]

Core Insights - The national service production index in July increased by 5.8% year-on-year [1] - The information transmission, software and IT services, financial services, and leasing and business services sectors saw production index growth of 11.9%, 8.7%, and 8.0% respectively, outpacing the overall service production index by 6.1, 2.9, and 2.2 percentage points [1] - From January to July, the national service production index grew by 5.9% year-on-year [1] Industry Performance - For the first half of the year, revenue from large-scale service enterprises increased by 7.5% year-on-year [1] - The service business activity index for July was recorded at 50.0%, while the business activity expectation index was at 56.6% [1] - Specific sectors such as railway transport, air transport, postal services, and cultural and sports entertainment had business activity indices above 60.0%, indicating a high level of economic activity [1]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - In April, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was reported at 49%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight contraction in the manufacturing sector [3] - High-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 51.5%, significantly above the overall manufacturing level, indicating continued expansion in this sector [5] - The new orders index for consumer goods manufacturing was at the critical point of 50%, suggesting a good release of domestic market demand [5] Group 2: Business Confidence and Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index for April was 52.1%, remaining in the expansion zone, reflecting strong confidence among enterprises regarding market development [5] - Industries such as food and beverage, automotive, and aerospace showed high expectation indices of 58% and above, indicating robust business activity [7] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.1%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point, indicating continued expansion [8] - The service sector, particularly tourism and information services, showed positive performance, contributing to the overall growth in non-manufacturing activities [8][9] Group 4: Construction Sector - The construction business activity index was reported at 51.9%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, yet still indicating expansion [9] - With the arrival of the construction peak season, civil engineering investment is accelerating, highlighting the role of investment in driving economic growth [10]