有个刚回县城的朋友跟我吐槽过一件事，他在大城市年收入接近50万，早上8点到晚上9点是常态，周末 加班当家常饭。春节回家见了几个读书时的同学，人家县城公务员，朝九晚五，周末在家，还能开宝 马、戴金表，唯一的压力就是年底有没有年终奖。他当时的心情是这样的：这10多年在大城市费劲巴力 地搞，还不如人家在县城舒服。 这个故事在网上出现了无数次，每次都会引发一大波共鸣。有人感慨"北漂十年，不如县城中产"，有人 开玩笑说"宇宙的尽头是考编"，还有人认真分析起了"县城婆罗门"现象。所有的讨论最后都指向一个问 题：小县城、小城市的经济，是不是真的靠公务员养活的？ 答案其实比想象的更复杂，也更严峻。我们今天就来把这个现象剥开了看，因为这关系到在三四线城市 生活的几亿人的日子。 三四线城市面临的另一个困境是人口持续流出。我们读大学的时候，周围的同学有一堆考上大城市公务 员的，也有一堆在大城市找了工作的。很少有人回到小县城，除非是考上了公务员。这意味着什么？意 味着县城失去了年轻的、有消费能力的、有活力的人群。留下的要么是老人，要么是没有能力离开的 人。消费主体变了，需求结构就跟着变了。以前可能开家餐厅、开家服装店就能活，现在呢， ...

Group 1 - The trend of young people moving from rural areas to major cities is reversing, with a significant slowdown in urbanization rate to 0.5% in 2023 compared to an average of 1.2% over the previous five years [1] - High living costs in major cities, with an average rent-to-income ratio of 48% in cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, compared to only 18% in county towns, are diminishing the appeal of urban life [2] - The rapid upgrade of infrastructure in county towns, including an 85% coverage of high-speed rail networks and the establishment of major hospitals and schools, is attracting young people back [2] Group 2 - The cost-benefit analysis of living in county towns versus major cities is a significant factor for returnees, as one IT engineer noted that a monthly salary of 8,000 in his hometown is more comfortable than a 200,000 annual salary in Shanghai after expenses [3] - Despite rising property prices in county towns (60%-100% increase over five years), the job market remains heavily reliant on government positions, with over 60% of mid-to-high-end consumption driven by civil servants [4] - The narrow job market in county towns is highlighted by the competitive nature of civil service exams, with over 283,000 applicants for 2024 and a competition ratio of 3,572:1 for the most sought-after positions [6] Group 3 - The over-reliance on a "civil servant economy" poses sustainability challenges, with an average county-level fiscal self-sufficiency rate of only 42% in 2023, and some regions below 30% [6] - The phenomenon of industrial hollowing is evident, with 60% of tax revenue in a top county coming from real estate and construction, while manufacturing contributes less than 15% [8] - Successful diversification strategies in counties, such as tourism in Guizhou and e-commerce in Shandong, demonstrate potential pathways for revitalizing local economies [8] Group 4 - The need for counties to break away from dependence on government jobs and develop a diverse industrial ecosystem is crucial for retaining talent [8] - The government has initiated support for county-level economic development, with 120 pilot counties receiving special bond allocations to promote local economies [8] - The transformation of the "return flow" of talent into a sustainable development force requires counties to offer differentiated opportunities compared to major cities, such as lower startup costs and a more flexible work environment [8]