Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by Zhonggong Education, highlighting its declining revenue, increasing refund liabilities, and the impact of its "agreement class" model on its financial health [6][10][15]. Group 1: Company Performance - Zhonggong Education's revenue has decreased from 6.9 billion in 2021 to 2.6 billion in 2024, with a loss of 3.68 billion over the past years [6][10]. - The company reported a cash balance of 177 million, while the pending refunds reached 482 million [9]. - The "agreement class" model, which initially contributed 75% of the company's revenue, has now led to 82% of its litigation cases [8][10]. Group 2: Refund Issues - The refund process has become a significant issue, with reports of students facing long repayment terms, such as a 17-year plan for refunds [12][13]. - The overall refund rate reached 68.46% in 2021, with some products having a failure rate of 82.94% for students not passing exams [22]. - The company has been forced to adjust its refund policies, including offering internal vouchers instead of cash refunds [18]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The number of applicants for national civil service exams has nearly doubled from 2021 to 2024, while the acceptance rate has dropped from 1.6% to 1.3% [23]. - The competitive landscape has intensified, with new entrants offering innovative refund schemes, further complicating Zhonggong Education's position [35]. - The company has begun downsizing its workforce from 45,000 to 7,888 and reducing its branches from 1,669 to 681 in response to financial pressures [35]. Group 4: Strategic Shifts - Zhonggong Education is attempting to diversify its business model by exploring new revenue streams, including employment services and hardware sales [36]. - The company has invested heavily in real estate, spending billions on new training facilities, which has not yielded the expected returns [29]. - Despite these efforts, the revenue from new ventures remains minimal, accounting for less than 3% of total income as of 2024 [38].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by Zhonggong Education, highlighting its declining revenue and increasing refund liabilities due to its "agreement class" model, which has led to significant financial strain and legal issues [2][4][9]. Group 1: Company Performance - Zhonggong Education's revenue has decreased from 6.9 billion in 2021 to 2.6 billion in 2024, with a cumulative loss of 3.68 billion over the past years [2][4]. - The company reported a cash balance of 177 million, while the pending refunds reached 482 million, indicating a severe liquidity crisis [4]. - The "agreement class" model, which once accounted for 75% of the company's revenue, now contributes to 82% of its legal disputes [4][9]. Group 2: Refund Issues - A recent incident highlighted the difficulties in refunding students, with one student facing a 17-year repayment plan for a failed exam [6][8]. - The refund process has become so problematic that it has attracted attention from scammers posing as customer service representatives [8]. - The overall refund rate reached 68.46% in 2021, with only 20%-30% of students passing the written exams, leading to increased financial liabilities for the company [12][16]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The competition in the civil service exam training market has intensified, with the number of applicants nearly doubling from 2021 to 2024, while the acceptance rate dropped from 1.6% to 1.3% [12][14]. - New entrants in the market have introduced aggressive refund policies, further complicating Zhonggong Education's position [22][23]. - The company has begun downsizing, reducing its workforce from 45,000 to 7,888 and cutting the number of direct branches from 1,669 to 681 [23]. Group 4: Strategic Shifts - Zhonggong Education is attempting to pivot towards employment services, claiming it will be a valuable market in the next decade [23][25]. - The company has also ventured into new business areas, including hardware and live streaming, although these efforts have yet to yield significant revenue [23][25]. - Despite these efforts, the revenue from new ventures remains below 3% of total income, indicating challenges in successfully diversifying its business model [25].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has entered a profit realization phase, with significant revenue and profit growth reported for 2024 and Q1 2025. The revenue for 2024 reached 2.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1,046%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.53 billion yuan, up 158% year-on-year [8] - The company has launched an employee stock ownership plan, allowing 275 core employees, including 13 executives, to acquire shares at a price of 45.91 yuan per share, with a total investment cap of 1.25 billion yuan [8] - The company is expected to continue to release profits as it stabilizes operations post-employee stock plan implementation, with revised net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 being 3.7 billion, 4.5 billion, and 4.9 billion yuan respectively [8] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, total revenue is projected at 28.33 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1,046% and a net profit of 0.53 billion yuan, reflecting a 158% increase [8] - The first quarter of 2025 shows revenue of 8.27 billion yuan, a 19% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.21 billion yuan, up 67% year-on-year [8] - The non-academic training business has seen substantial growth, with revenue reaching 2.79 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1,309% [8] Valuation Metrics - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 0.38 yuan, increasing to 2.62 yuan in 2025, and further to 3.22 yuan in 2026 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 34.78 for 2025, 28.32 for 2026, and 26.27 for 2027, indicating a relatively reasonable valuation within the public examination training industry [8]