考虑到六库联调调节来水波动，我们上调2025E/2026E归母净利润2.8%/3%至341 亿元/352 亿元，同比分 别+5%/+3%。考虑到市场资金轮动，估值中枢震荡，我们维持31.5 元的目标价不变，维持"跑赢行业"评 级不变，目标价较当前上行空间为9.8%。当前股价对应20.6x/19.9x P/E，目标价对应22.6x/21.9x P/E。 拟以自有资金266 亿元投资扩建葛洲坝航运枢纽。根据公告，公司拟出资建设葛洲坝航运扩能工程，工 期91 月（含筹建期12 个月），平均每年资本开支约为40 亿元。工程预计将拆除既有三号船闸，在左侧 新建两线单级船闸，并扩挖上下游引航道。我们认为上述扩建具有1）社会效益：葛洲坝职能在于航 运、发电、防洪，需优先保证航运。船闸多年处于超负荷运行状态，公司有责任承接扩建工程，减少船 舶待闸时间。2）经济效益：扩建后葛洲坝年均发电量从约 158 亿千瓦时增至180 亿千瓦时，将有利于 降低船舶通航对发电调度的制约，有利于未来在调度、市场等方面的获取国家政策支持。 我们认为上述投资不影响公司继续实现长期70%分红率目标，长期价值仍有保障。2024 年长江电力经 营性现金流 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in power generation, with a significant improvement in financial expenses [8][10] - The company aims to achieve a power generation target of 300 billion kWh in 2025, supported by favorable water resource conditions [10][15] - The company has increased its market-oriented trading volume, which is expected to enhance revenue and pricing [13][14] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 84,492 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.12%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 32,496 million yuan, up 19.28% [9][10] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 17,015 million yuan, a growth of 8.68%, and a net profit of 5,181 million yuan, reflecting a 30.56% increase [9][10] - The company's financial expenses decreased significantly, contributing to higher profit growth rates compared to revenue growth [10][12] Operational Highlights - The total installed capacity of hydropower is 71,795 MW, with domestic hydropower accounting for 16.45% of the national total [10] - The company’s six hydropower stations generated 295.904 billion kWh in 2024, a 7.11% increase year-on-year [10][12] - The company has successfully implemented market-oriented pricing strategies, with the proportion of market transactions rising to 38.6% in 2024 [13][14] Future Outlook - The company has revised its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 35,028 million yuan, 36,715 million yuan, and 37,087 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 7.8%, 4.8%, and 1.0% [15] - The expected dividend payout ratio for 2025 is 70%, translating to a dividend yield of 3.4% [15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in power generation, with financial expenses continuously improving. In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 84.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.12%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 32.50 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.28% [8][10] - The company aims to achieve a power generation target of 300 billion kWh in 2025, supported by favorable water resource conditions and improved market pricing [15] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 84.49 billion yuan, up 8.12% year-on-year, and a net profit of 32.50 billion yuan, up 19.28% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 17.02 billion yuan, a growth of 8.68%, and a net profit of 5.18 billion yuan, a growth of 30.56% [9][10] - The company's total installed hydropower capacity is 71.795 million kW, accounting for 16.45% of the national hydropower capacity. The six major hydropower stations generated 295.90 billion kWh in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.11% [10][12] Market Dynamics - The company has increased its market-based trading volume to 38.6% in 2024, up from 37.8% in 2023, with an average on-grid electricity price of 285.52 yuan/MWh, an increase of 4.24 yuan/MWh year-on-year [13][14] - The company is actively engaging in market-oriented pricing mechanisms, which are expected to enhance its competitive advantage in the clean energy sector [13] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for the company has been adjusted upwards, with net profit estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 set at 35.03 billion yuan, 36.72 billion yuan, and 37.09 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 7.8%, 4.8%, and 1.0% [15] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected at 20.6 for 2025, with a dividend yield of 3.4% based on a 70% payout ratio [15]