Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The macroeconomic environment is favorable, with the Federal Reserve continuing to lower interest rates and tariff pressures easing [6][10] - The demand season is gradually coming to an end, leading to potential downward pressure on aluminum water conversion rates and inventory performance [10] - Long-term supply growth in the aluminum industry is limited, while demand continues to have growth points, suggesting sustained high industry prosperity [10] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of October 31, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2888.0 per ton, up $31.5 from the previous week, a 1.1% increase week-on-week and a 10.4% increase year-on-year [22] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 21300.0 yuan per ton, up 75.0 yuan from the previous week, a 0.4% increase week-on-week and a 2.1% increase year-on-year [22] - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was 21300.0 yuan per ton, up 170.0 yuan from the previous week, a 0.8% increase week-on-week and a 2.0% increase year-on-year [22] 2. Production - In September 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 361.5 million tons, a decrease of 11.8 million tons month-on-month and a decrease of 7.4 million tons year-on-year [54] - The alumina production in September 2025 was 760.4 million tons, a decrease of 13.5 million tons month-on-month and an increase of 38.3 million tons year-on-year [54] 3. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK): Price 26.93, EPS forecast for 2024/2025/2026: 2.35/2.65/2.89, PE: 11.5/10.2/9.3, Investment Rating: Buy [5] - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ): Price 13.37, EPS forecast: 0.96/1.00/1.27, PE: 14.0/13.3/10.5, Investment Rating: Buy [5] - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ): Price 24.73, EPS forecast: 1.91/2.13/2.56, PE: 12.9/11.6/9.7, Investment Rating: Buy [5] - China Aluminum (601600.SH): Price 9.99, EPS forecast: 0.72/0.84/0.92, PE: 13.8/11.8/10.9, Investment Rating: Buy [5] - Yun Aluminum (000807.SZ): Price 22.99, EPS forecast: 1.27/1.88/2.07, PE: 18.1/12.2/11.1, Investment Rating: Buy [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The report indicates that tariff pressures are expected to ease further, and the off-season destocking performance is better than anticipated. The aluminum industry is likely to experience a continuous trend of destocking and price increases, supported by improving export conditions [10] - The long-term outlook for the aluminum industry remains positive due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases, maintaining a high level of industry prosperity [10] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of May 30, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2,448.5 per ton, while the Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was ¥20,070.0 per ton [14][20] - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was ¥20,240.0 per ton, down ¥160.0 from the previous week [20] 2. Production - In May 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum was 3.729 million tons, an increase of 123,000 tons month-on-month and 214,000 tons year-on-year [53] - The production of alumina in May 2025 was 7.272 million tons, up 189,000 tons month-on-month and 593,000 tons year-on-year [53] 3. Inventory - As of May 29, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 511,000 tons, a decrease of 46,000 tons week-on-week [7] - The inventory of aluminum rods was recorded at 128,300 tons, with a slight decrease of 2,500 tons week-on-week [7] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies include Shenhuo Co., China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, China Aluminum, and Yun Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth [5] 5. Supply and Demand - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity remains stable, with a slight increase in the alloying ratio affecting the delivery situation [7] - Demand from downstream sectors is showing signs of weakness, particularly in photovoltaic aluminum and automotive materials, while cable orders remain strong due to state grid demand [7]