证券研究报告 2025年08月24日 有色金属 铝行业周报：美联储降息预期强化，下游需求继续回升 最近一年走势 相关报告 -11% 2% 16% 30% 43% 57% 2024/08 2024/11 2025/02 2025/05 2025/08 有色金属 沪深300 《铝行业周报：下游铝加工开工率回升，静待库存拐点（推荐）*有色金属*王 璇，陈晨》——2025-08-17 《铝行业周报：美联储降息预期提升，淡季累库趋势延续（推荐）*有色金属* 王璇，陈晨》——2025-08-11 《铝行业周报：美国非农就业低于预期，国内淡季累库趋势延续（推荐）*有 色金属*王璇，陈晨》——2025-08-04 沪深300表现 评级：推荐(维持) 陈晨(证券分析师) 王璇(证券分析师) S0350522110007 S0350523080001 chenc09@ghzq.com.cn wangx15@ghzq.com.cn | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | 8.2% | 25.0% | 51.3% | | 沪深300 | 6.3% | 11. ...

利润5.23 亿元，同比+1568.52%。公司于25Q2 实现营收45.64 亿元，环比+21.97%；实现归母净利润 2.79 亿元，环比+14.00%。公司二季度业绩落在此前业绩预告偏上限的位置，业绩表现亮眼，尤其是在 二季度石油焦和预焙阳极价格有所调整的背景下，单吨预焙阳极利润环比还有所提升。 预焙阳极产能及产销量数据方面：公司目前预焙阳极总产能346 万吨。今年上半年，公司实现预焙阳极 产量176.05 万吨，同比+12.23%，实现预焙阳极销量169.01 万吨，同比+9.82%，其中出口销售44.56 万 吨，同比+13.18%，国内销售124.45 万吨，同比+8.66%。预计公司预焙阳极将会保持满产满销的状态。 锂电负极产能及产销量数据方面：今年上半年，公司实现锂电负极产品产量4.29 万吨，同比+84.91%， 实现锂电负极产品销量4.40 万吨，同比+120.00%。 上半年公司锂电负极业务总体预计仍呈现亏损的状态，但亏损幅度在逐步收窄，未来将有望实现扭亏为 盈。 新项目建设稳步推进中：公司与吉利百矿合资的广西年产60 万吨预焙阳极项目目前工厂土建主体建设 工作已基本完成，力争2025 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年08月22日 索通发展（603612.SH）——半年报点评 优于大市 二季度业绩表现亮眼，预焙阳极盈利能力环比继续提升 公司发布半年报：上半年实现营收 83.06 亿元，同比+28.28%；实现归母净 利润 5.23 亿元，同比+1568.52%。公司于 25Q2 实现营收 45.64 亿元，环比 +21.97%；实现归母净利润 2.79 亿元，环比+14.00%。公司二季度业绩落在 此前业绩预告偏上限的位置，业绩表现亮眼，尤其是在二季度石油焦和预焙 阳极价格有所调整的背景下，单吨预焙阳极利润环比还有所提升。 预焙阳极产能及产销量数据方面：公司目前预焙阳极总产能 346 万吨。今年 上半年，公司实现预焙阳极产量 176.05 万吨，同比+12.23%，实现预焙阳极 销量 169.01 万吨，同比+9.82%，其中出口销售 44.56 万吨，同比+13.18%， 国内销售 124.45 万吨，同比+8.66%。预计公司预焙阳极将会保持满产满销 的状态。 | 证券分析师：刘孟峦 | 证券分析师：杨耀洪 | | --- | --- | | 010-88005312 | 021-60933 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant growth in both revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by strong market demand and rising prices in the prebaked anode sector [1]. Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 8.306 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 28.28% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 523 million yuan, showing a remarkable year-on-year growth of 1,568.52% [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses was 522 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 364.53% [1] - Basic earnings per share were reported at 1.05 yuan [1] - The company proposed a cash dividend of 2.1 yuan per 10 shares (tax included) to all shareholders [1] Industry Insights - The prebaked anode sector within the primary aluminum industry demonstrated a favorable development trend, with rising aluminum prices and strong market demand contributing to increased prebaked anode prices [1] - The company's joint ventures with high-quality downstream customers, including the 340,000-ton prebaked anode project and the 300,000-ton project, have been steadily operating, leading to significant growth in prebaked anode production and sales [1]

报告期内，预焙阳极所处的原铝产业链展现出良好发展态势，原铝价格上涨，市场需求旺盛，因此，预 焙阳极价格上涨。公司与下游优质客户合资的索通创新二期34万吨预焙阳极项目、陇西索通30万吨预焙 阳极项目产能稳步运行，预焙阳极产销量同比较大幅度增长。以上导致公司营业收入同比增长。 索通发展（603612）(603612.SH)发布2025年半年度报告，该公司营业收入为83.06亿元，同比增长 28.28%。归属于上市公司股东的净利润为5.23亿元，同比增长1568.52%。归属于上市公司股东的扣除非 经常性损益的净利润为5.22亿元，同比增长364.53%。基本每股收益为1.05元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, indicating strong operational performance and market demand [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 8.306 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 28.28% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 523 million yuan, showing a remarkable year-on-year growth of 1568.52% [1] - Basic earnings per share were reported at 1.05 yuan per share [1] Dividend Distribution - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.1 yuan per 10 shares (including tax) [1] Production and Sales Performance - The production of prebaked anodes reached 1.7605 million tons, an increase of 12.23% year-on-year [1] - Sales of prebaked anodes totaled 1.6901 million tons, up by 9.82% year-on-year, with exports accounting for 445,600 tons (up 13.18%) and domestic sales at 1.2445 million tons (up 8.66%) [1] - Lithium battery anode production was 42,900 tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 84.91%, with sales reaching 44,000 tons, a 120.00% increase [1] - Capacitor product production was 775 million units, up 3.52% year-on-year, with sales of 788 million units, an increase of 8.47% [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum processing sector is witnessing a recovery in operating rates, with expectations for inventory to reach a turning point. The upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is anticipated to boost demand [11]. - The macroeconomic environment is leaning towards favorable conditions, with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a temporary suspension of tariffs between China and the U.S. [6]. - The report highlights that the current low inventory levels and reduced aluminum ingot supply provide support for aluminum prices [11]. Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of August 15, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2,603.0 per ton, down $12.0 from the previous week but up $276.0 year-on-year [24]. - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 20,770.0 yuan per ton, up 85.0 yuan week-on-week and up 1,755.0 yuan year-on-year [24]. - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was 20,680.0 yuan per ton, up 50.0 yuan week-on-week and up 1,750.0 yuan year-on-year [24]. 2. Production - In July 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum was 3.721 million tons, an increase of 112,000 tons month-on-month and 168,000 tons year-on-year [55]. - The production of alumina in July 2025 was 7.650 million tons, up 392,000 tons month-on-month and 808,000 tons year-on-year [55]. 3. Inventory - As of August 14, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 588,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons week-on-week [7]. - The inventory of aluminum rods was 138,500 tons, down 4,000 tons week-on-week, indicating a continuous decline due to reduced production by manufacturers [7]. 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies in the aluminum sector include China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., China Aluminum, and Yunnan Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" [5].

Core Viewpoint - A-share companies have reported better-than-expected performance in the first half of the year, attracting market attention and investment despite a challenging economic environment [1] Group 1: Performance Highlights - 59 stocks have been identified as having exceeded market expectations, with notable companies including CATL, Industrial Fulian, Zijin Mining, Muyuan Foods, and WuXi AppTec [1] - The sectors with the most stocks exceeding expectations include power equipment, machinery, electronics, automotive, defense, and basic chemicals, with power equipment having the highest representation [1] - 18 stocks reported a net profit growth of over 100% in the first half of the year [1] Group 2: Specific Company Performances - Zhimin Da achieved a net profit of 0.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.48 times, driven by significant order growth in embedded modules, particularly in AI products [2] - Shijia Photon reported total revenue of 0.993 billion yuan, a 121.12% increase, with overseas revenue growing by 323.59% [2] - Suotong Development expects a net profit of 0.45 to 0.54 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.35 to 16.22 times due to favorable market conditions in the aluminum industry [2] Group 3: Market Performance and Investment Trends - The average increase for the 59 stocks that exceeded expectations was 37.45% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [4] - Six stocks have doubled in value, including Shijia Photon and Zhimin Da [4] - Notable financing activity has been observed, with 18 stocks seeing net purchases exceeding 100 million yuan since July, including New Yi Sheng and WuXi AppTec [4] Group 4: Noteworthy Forecasts - New Yi Sheng anticipates a net profit of 3.7 to 4.2 billion yuan for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year growth of 327.68% to 385.47% [6] - The company benefits from increased investment in AI-related computing power and a shift towards high-speed product demand [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the current economic indicators and trends in various sectors, including liquidity, infrastructure, real estate, industrial products, and export chains, providing insights into potential investment opportunities and risks. Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.7 percentage points in June 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1.9 percentage points [4] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index was 46.09 in July 2025, down 6.16% from the previous month [4] - The London gold spot price increased by 0.79% compared to the previous week [4] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The steel PMI new orders index reached a 9-month high in July [5] - Weekly price changes included rebar down 2.90%, cement price index down 1.37%, rubber down 2.33%, coke up 3.94%, coking coal up 0.98%, and iron ore down 2.55% [5] - National blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, asphalt, and all-steel tire operating rates changed by -0.57 percentage points, +0.20 percentage points, +3.0 percentage points, and -3.94 percentage points respectively [5] Real Estate Completion Chain - Titanium dioxide and flat glass prices changed by -0.77% and 0.00% respectively, with flat glass gross profit at -58 CNY/ton and titanium dioxide profit at -1409 CNY/ton [6] - The flat glass operating rate was 75% this week [6] Industrial Products Chain - The PMI new orders index for July was 49.40%, down 0.8 percentage points [7] - Major commodity prices showed cold-rolled down 0.19%, copper down 1.43%, and aluminum down 1.49%, with corresponding gross profit changes of +12.77%, -18.19%, and -10.26% [7] - The national semi-steel tire operating rate was 74.45%, down 1.42 percentage points [7] Subcategories - Tungsten concentrate prices reached a new high since 2011 [8] - Graphite electrode price was 18,000 CNY/ton, unchanged, with a gross profit of 1357.4 CNY/ton, down 10.61% [8] - Electrolytic aluminum price was 20,490 CNY/ton, down 1.49%, with estimated profit at 2926 CNY/ton (excluding tax), down 10.26% [8] Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.27 this week [9] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel was 80 CNY/ton [9] - The price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel reached 390 CNY/ton, up 20 CNY/ton [9] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in July 2025 was 47.10%, down 0.6 percentage points [10] - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1232.29 points this week, down 2.30% [10] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate was 78.40%, up 0.40 percentage points [10] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index decreased by 1.75%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being commercial vehicles at -0.51% [11] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the CSI 300 index was 46.36% and 64.79% respectively [11] - The current PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the CSI 300 index is 0.57, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of various industries, focusing on liquidity, construction, real estate, industrial products, pricing relationships, export chains, and valuation metrics, highlighting both opportunities and challenges in the market. Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.7 percentage points in June 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1.9 percentage points [3] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Rebar prices reached a new high for the year, with weekly price changes showing rebar up by 5.50%, cement price index down by 2.05%, rubber up by 3.09%, coke up by 8.55%, coking coal up by 6.60%, and iron ore up by 0.64% [4] - National capacity utilization rates for blast furnaces, cement, asphalt, and all-steel tires decreased by 0.08 percentage points, 6.80 percentage points, 1.8 percentage points, and 0.08 percentage points respectively [4] Real Estate Completion Chain - Prices for titanium dioxide and flat glass changed by -0.38% and 0.00% respectively, with flat glass profit at -58 yuan/ton and titanium dioxide profit at -1350 yuan/ton; flat glass operating rate was 75% [5] Industrial Products Chain - Major commodity prices showed cold-rolled steel, copper, and aluminum increasing by 6.42%, 1.05%, and 0.19% respectively, with corresponding profit changes of +107.38%, -18.19%, and -1.86% [6] - The national operating rate for semi-steel tires was 75.87%, down by 0.12 percentage points [6] - The PMI new orders index for June was 50.20% [6] Subcategory Products - Prices for graphite electrodes were 18,000 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a comprehensive profit of 1357.4 yuan/ton, down by 15.09% [7] - Electrolytic aluminum price was 20,800 yuan/ton, up by 0.19%, with estimated profit at 3260 yuan/ton (excluding tax), down by 1.86% [7] - Electrolytic copper price was 79,580 yuan/ton, up by 1.05% [7] Pricing Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.37 this week; the price difference between hot-rolled and rebar was 100 yuan/ton [8] - The price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel reached 370 yuan/ton, up by 10 yuan/ton [8] - The price difference between small rebar (mainly used in real estate) and large rebar (mainly used in infrastructure) was 150 yuan/ton, down by 6.25% from last week [8] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in June 2025 was 47.70%, up by 0.2 percentage points [9] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates was 1261.35 points, down by 3.24% [9] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate was 78.00%, down by 0.70 percentage points [9] Valuation Metrics - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.69%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being cement manufacturing, which rose by 13.13% [10] - The PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the CSI 300 is currently at 0.57, with a historical high of 0.82 reached in August 2017 [11]