Market Performance - On October 17, U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.52% at 46,190.61 points, the S&P 500 up 0.53% at 6,664.01 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.52% at 22,679.97 points. For the week, the Dow rose 1.56%, the S&P 500 increased by 1.7%, and the Nasdaq gained 2.14% [1] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index initially dropped over 1.3% but later rebounded, closing down 0.14% for the day and up 1.83% for the week [1] Gold Market - On October 17, international gold prices fell sharply, with spot gold dropping below $4,200 per ounce, a decline of over 3%. By the end of trading, spot gold was down 1.73% at $4,251.448 per ounce, while COMEX gold fell 0.85% to $4,267.9 per ounce. Spot silver decreased by 4.21% to $51.861 per ounce, and COMEX silver dropped 5.01% to $50.625 per ounce [6][7] - The decline in gold prices led to significant losses in U.S. gold stocks, with Kinross Gold down over 9% and Barrick Gold down more than 6% [7] - Factors contributing to the drop in gold prices included President Trump's more conciliatory remarks on trade issues and ongoing assessments of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which reduced the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [7][9] Economic Outlook - The White House's economic advisor, Kevin Hassett, expressed confidence that trade tensions are easing, which has improved market sentiment. He noted that the regional bank crisis's impact has also subsided, alleviating market fears [5] - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting is expected to result in a 25 basis point cut to the federal funds rate target range of 4% to 4.25%, aimed at boosting the weak job market while maintaining sufficient tightening to ensure inflation returns to the 2% target [13] - There is a general expectation that the Fed will lower rates again by the end of the year, although officials emphasize the need for caution in their decision-making [13]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court will hold a hearing in November regarding the legality of certain tariffs, increasing the likelihood that some tariffs may be deemed illegal in the first half of next year [1] Group 1: Tariff Legality and Implications - If certain tariffs are ruled illegal, they may be replaced by new tariffs that could have different rates depending on the exporting country [1] - Refunds will be available for tariffs paid from April 2025 until the ruling, with U.S. Treasury Secretary suggesting that half of the tariff revenue could be refunded, equating to 0.5% to 0.7% of GDP, which would add to the fiscal deficit [1] Group 2: Impact on Companies - Refunds of tariff payments represent a form of tax rebate, providing unexpected cash payments to U.S. companies that have paid tariffs, with approximately two-thirds of these payments coming from small U.S. companies [1] - The potential for tariff refunds may act as a fiscal stimulus similar to income tax rebate checks [1] Group 3: Inflation Considerations - The introduction of new tariffs replacing old ones may lead to inflationary distortions; if new tariffs lower rates, prices of U.S. goods that increased due to previous tariffs may not decrease due to price stickiness [1] - Conversely, if the new tariff regime raises certain rates, it could introduce new inflation risks [1]