2025.11. 16 本文字数：2619，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 冯迪凡 如果美国最高法院裁定特朗普政府无权以《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）为由征收关税的话，美 国政府是否会退还这部分关税？退款过程又会怎样？ 在11月美国最高法院就该案进行的口头辩论中，大多数大法官对上述关税的合法性都表示怀疑。 但一些大法官提出了疑问，该关税被裁定非法，将会发生什么？大法官巴雷特（Amy Coney Barrett）就表示，退还关税可能会"非常混乱"。 据报道，美国财政部部长贝森特在9月曾警告，"如果最高法院等到明年夏天才作出必须退还关税的 裁决，那么需要退还的金额可能在7500亿～1万亿美元之间。" 英国杜伦大学法学院副院长、跨国法教授兼全球政策研究所联合主任杜明对第一财经记者采访时表 示，判决应该不会拖那么久。 "11月的审理已属于加速办理状态，若口头辩论阶段已过，判决不会拖到2026年夏天，估计最快今 年12月，最迟明年1月能出结果。"他解释道。 同时，在退回关税方面，他表示，如果美国最高法院判决特朗普政府败诉，那么已经征收的1000亿 美元以上的关税要退还，另外可能还有利息问题，商家也有可能要 ...

但一些大法官提出了疑问，该关税被裁定非法，将会发生什么？大法官巴雷特（Amy Coney Barrett）就 表示，退还关税可能会"非常混乱"。 据报道，美国财政部部长贝森特在9月曾警告，"如果最高法院等到明年夏天才作出必须退还关税的裁 决，那么需要退还的金额可能在7500亿～1万亿美元之间。" 英国杜伦大学法学院副院长、跨国法教授兼全球政策研究所联合主任杜明对第一财经记者采访时表示， 判决应该不会拖那么久。 如果美国最高法院裁定特朗普政府无权以《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）为由征收关税的话，美国 政府是否会退还这部分关税？退款过程又会怎样？ 在11月美国最高法院就该案进行的口头辩论中，大多数大法官对上述关税的合法性都表示怀疑。 位于洛杉矶的小型鸡尾酒和利口酒装瓶厂Greenbar Distillery目前也已支付超过5万美元的额外关税，相 当于公司利润的10%。 "11月的审理已属于加速办理状态，若口头辩论阶段已过，判决不会拖到2026年夏天，估计最快今年12 月，最迟明年1月能出结果。"他解释道。 同时，在退回关税方面，他表示，如果美国最高法院判决特朗普政府败诉，那么已经征收的1000亿美元 以上的 ...

如果美国最高法院裁定特朗普政府无权以《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）为由征收关税的话，美国政府是否会退还这部分关税？退款过程又会怎样？ 在11月美国最高法院就该案进行的口头辩论中，大多数大法官对上述关税的合法性都表示怀疑。 但一些大法官提出了疑问，该关税被裁定非法，将会发生什么？大法官巴雷特（Amy Coney Barrett）就表示，退还关税可能会"非常混乱"。 "判决不会拖到2026年夏天，估计最快今年12月，最迟明年1月能出结果。" 据报道，美国财政部部长贝森特在9月曾警告，"如果最高法院等到明年夏天才作出必须退还关税的裁决，那么需要退还的金额可能在7500亿～1万亿美元之 间。" 英国杜伦大学法学院副院长、跨国法教授兼全球政策研究所联合主任杜明对第一财经记者采访时表示，判决应该不会拖那么久。 "11月的审理已属于加速办理状态，若口头辩论阶段已过，判决不会拖到2026年夏天，估计最快今年12月，最迟明年1月能出结果。"他解释道。 同时，在退回关税方面，他表示，如果美国最高法院判决特朗普政府败诉，那么已经征收的1000亿美元以上的关税要退还，另外可能还有利息问题，商家也 有可能要求美国政府赔偿其他损失 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court will hold a hearing in November regarding the legality of certain tariffs, increasing the likelihood that some tariffs may be deemed illegal in the first half of next year [1] Group 1: Tariff Legality and Implications - If certain tariffs are ruled illegal, they may be replaced by new tariffs that could have different rates depending on the exporting country [1] - Refunds will be available for tariffs paid from April 2025 until the ruling, with U.S. Treasury Secretary suggesting that half of the tariff revenue could be refunded, equating to 0.5% to 0.7% of GDP, which would add to the fiscal deficit [1] Group 2: Impact on Companies - Refunds of tariff payments represent a form of tax rebate, providing unexpected cash payments to U.S. companies that have paid tariffs, with approximately two-thirds of these payments coming from small U.S. companies [1] - The potential for tariff refunds may act as a fiscal stimulus similar to income tax rebate checks [1] Group 3: Inflation Considerations - The introduction of new tariffs replacing old ones may lead to inflationary distortions; if new tariffs lower rates, prices of U.S. goods that increased due to previous tariffs may not decrease due to price stickiness [1] - Conversely, if the new tariff regime raises certain rates, it could introduce new inflation risks [1]

Group 1 - OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries have decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October, following a meeting on September 7 [3] - The eight countries involved include Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, and they will adjust production based on market conditions to maintain stability [3] - In September, these countries had already increased production by 547,000 barrels per day [4] Group 2 - U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that if the Supreme Court upholds a ruling against the government's tariff measures, approximately half of the collected tariffs would need to be refunded, which could have disastrous consequences [6] - A recent poll indicated that President Trump's approval rating stands at 43%, with 57% of respondents disapproving of his performance, particularly regarding inflation management [8][9] - The poll also revealed that only 39% of respondents approved of Trump's handling of inflation, highlighting economic concerns among the public [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent court ruling against Trump's tariffs could lead to the return of previously collected tariffs, worsening the already strained federal finances in the U.S. [1][3][4] Group 1: U.S. Treasury Market - Most U.S. Treasuries faced selling pressure, with the 2-year yield rising by 3.5 basis points to 3.658%, the 10-year yield increasing by over 6.3 basis points to 4.289%, and the 30-year yield climbing by over 6 basis points to 4.978% [1] - The court's decision may result in a significant increase in bond issuance and yields if tariffs are refunded, as noted by policy experts [4] Group 2: International Bond Markets - Major overseas bond yields have also surged, with Germany, Italy, and France seeing their 30-year bond yields reach the highest levels since 2011 [4] - On September 2, German 10-year yields rose by 4.5 basis points to 2.792%, and 30-year yields increased by 5.1 basis points to 3.412% [4] Group 3: U.K. Bond Market - The U.K. bond market is under pressure as the Labour government attempts to address a fiscal gap of £20 billion to £25 billion, leading to rising yields across the board [5] - The 2-year U.K. bond yield increased by 4.7 basis points to 4.016%, while the 10-year yield rose by 5.8 basis points to 4.808%, marking the highest levels since 1998 [5] Group 4: Currency Movements - The British pound fell by 1% against the U.S. dollar, indicating a lack of confidence in the government's ability to stabilize finances [6] Group 5: Japanese Bond Market - In the Asia-Pacific region, Japanese bond yields showed mixed results, with the 10-year yield decreasing by 2 basis points to 1.604%, while the 30-year yield rose by 5.2 basis points to 3.242% [8] Group 6: U.S. Treasury Issuance - The U.S. Treasury is set to issue a total of $291 billion in bonds, including various maturities, on September 2 [9]