特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 发布日期： 2025-12-24 【1】三季度实际GDP年化季率初值+4.3%，预期+3.3%，前值+3.8%； 【2】三季度实际个人消费支出季率初值+3.5%，预期+2.7%，前值+2.5%； 【3】三季度核心PCE物价指数年化季率初值+2.9%，预期+2.9%，前值+2.6%。 免责声明 本订阅号是光大证券股份有限公司研究所（以下简称"光大证券研究所"）依法设立、独立运营的官方唯一订阅号。其他任 何以光大证券研究所名义注册的、或含有"光大证券研究"、与光大证券研究所品牌名称等相关信息的订阅号均不是光大证 券研究所的官方订阅号。 从降息角度看，受政府停摆影响，四季度美国GDP增速或再次承压，但基数效应下，明年一季度美国经济 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the textile manufacturing and branding sectors faced external pressures, including tariff impacts and macroeconomic challenges, yet leading companies demonstrated strong operational resilience. Looking ahead to 2026, the manufacturing sector is expected to see a gradual easing of tariff disruptions, while the branding sector should focus on recovery opportunities and high-growth niche markets [1][2][3]. Textile Manufacturing Sector - The textile manufacturing sector experienced significant pressure from tariff impacts in April 2025, leading to short-term order fluctuations and reduced capacity utilization, which negatively affected profits. However, leading OEM companies maintained their long-term advantages, with some showing operational improvements by Q3 2025 [2]. - Tariff disruptions are anticipated to gradually diminish, with a positive outlook for orders from leading OEMs in 2026. Companies have adjusted pricing and product designs in response to tariffs, and the U.S. apparel market demand remains healthy [3][6]. Branding Sector - The branding sector has been under continuous pressure due to macroeconomic factors and weather-related impacts during the Q3 2025 autumn-winter transition, leading to decreased sales for some mass-market sports brands. However, there is potential for domestic brands to improve operations and capitalize on retail recovery opportunities, drawing lessons from the experiences of overseas leading brands during the 2008 financial crisis [4][6][7]. Outdoor Sports Sector - The outdoor footwear and apparel segment is one of the highest-performing areas within the industry, with a projected market size of 102.7 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.6%. The sector is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with a forecasted CAGR of 16.0% from 2024 to 2029 [5]. - Beyond outdoor footwear and apparel, other outdoor equipment segments, such as bicycles and smartwatches, are also experiencing high growth cycles, indicating a robust demand for outdoor activities and related products [5]. Investment Strategy - The textile manufacturing sector is expected to recover from tariff-related disruptions, with leading OEMs likely to see profit margins improve by the end of 2025. The sector is projected to benefit from stable order growth and enhanced manufacturing capabilities in the medium to long term [6][7]. - The branding sector continues to face challenges but has the potential for recovery, as domestic brands are well-positioned to emerge from the downturn by focusing on product innovation and maintaining healthy cash flows [6][7].