策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量深度 2025 年 12 月 16 日 策略深度报告 风格与趋势共振：新消费投资图景 消费具备轮动补涨配置机会，新消费兼具产业趋势与中期景气双重共振。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师: 王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：高天然 (8610)66229064 tianran.gao@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300522100001 2025 年 Q2 新消费行情演绎的三重逻辑：1）基本面层面：中美贸易摩 擦下，提振内需政策预期强化；2）资金面层面：全球资金再配置，港 股估值修复，A 股和港股消费共振；3）风格轮动：科技与消费呈现"跷 跷板"效应。从宏观背景与风格轮动逻辑来看，当前市场环境与 2025 年 Q2 有一定相似之处，消费风格具备轮动补涨配置机会：1）基本面层 面：CPI 回暖趋势初现，必选消费市场表现与 CPI 同比有较高相关度， 盈利-估值对比，消费风格具有明确优势；2）资金 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the textile manufacturing and branding sectors faced external pressures, including tariff impacts and macroeconomic challenges, yet leading companies demonstrated strong operational resilience. Looking ahead to 2026, the manufacturing sector is expected to see a gradual easing of tariff disruptions, while the branding sector should focus on recovery opportunities and high-growth niche markets [1][2][3]. Textile Manufacturing Sector - The textile manufacturing sector experienced significant pressure from tariff impacts in April 2025, leading to short-term order fluctuations and reduced capacity utilization, which negatively affected profits. However, leading OEM companies maintained their long-term advantages, with some showing operational improvements by Q3 2025 [2]. - Tariff disruptions are anticipated to gradually diminish, with a positive outlook for orders from leading OEMs in 2026. Companies have adjusted pricing and product designs in response to tariffs, and the U.S. apparel market demand remains healthy [3][6]. Branding Sector - The branding sector has been under continuous pressure due to macroeconomic factors and weather-related impacts during the Q3 2025 autumn-winter transition, leading to decreased sales for some mass-market sports brands. However, there is potential for domestic brands to improve operations and capitalize on retail recovery opportunities, drawing lessons from the experiences of overseas leading brands during the 2008 financial crisis [4][6][7]. Outdoor Sports Sector - The outdoor footwear and apparel segment is one of the highest-performing areas within the industry, with a projected market size of 102.7 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.6%. The sector is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with a forecasted CAGR of 16.0% from 2024 to 2029 [5]. - Beyond outdoor footwear and apparel, other outdoor equipment segments, such as bicycles and smartwatches, are also experiencing high growth cycles, indicating a robust demand for outdoor activities and related products [5]. Investment Strategy - The textile manufacturing sector is expected to recover from tariff-related disruptions, with leading OEMs likely to see profit margins improve by the end of 2025. The sector is projected to benefit from stable order growth and enhanced manufacturing capabilities in the medium to long term [6][7]. - The branding sector continues to face challenges but has the potential for recovery, as domestic brands are well-positioned to emerge from the downturn by focusing on product innovation and maintaining healthy cash flows [6][7].

Core Insights - The outdoor brand trend is reshaping the retail landscape in Beijing's Raffles City, with approximately 40% of the first floor now occupied by high-end outdoor sports brands, a significant shift from luxury fashion and jewelry [1][5][4] - The cycling station outside the shopping center has hosted nearly 130 urban cycling events since its establishment, enhancing community engagement and brand visibility [1][2] - The outdoor sports industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, with participation reaching 540 million in 2023 and an expected market size exceeding 600 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of over 30% in the past five years [5][6] Retail Strategy - Raffles City has strategically relocated brands like bags and fast fashion to higher floors to make room for more impactful outdoor brands, indicating a shift in commercial priorities [4][5] - The North Face is moving many of its stores from upper floors to the first floor, focusing on larger spaces and enhanced customer experiences, with sales per unit area increasing enough to offset rising rents [2][7] - The emphasis on experiential retail is evident, with brands like HOKA creating immersive environments to engage customers and convey brand narratives [8][9] Market Dynamics - The entry of outdoor brands into prime retail spaces is creating a new competitive landscape, with brands benefiting from shared customer bases and collaborative marketing efforts [10][11] - The shift towards outdoor brands is prompting shopping centers to rethink their spatial layouts and tenant mixes, as these brands attract a health-conscious consumer demographic [11] - Future plans include adding more health and outdoor-related retail brands to Raffles City, reflecting ongoing consumer trends towards active lifestyles [11]

Core Viewpoint - In 2026, product and channel innovation will be crucial for the growth of apparel brands, despite a stable overall industry growth. The differentiation in offline channel traffic and oversupply in the industry will necessitate brands to focus on product innovation and effective channel operations to maintain market position [3][6]. Group 1: Apparel Industry Trends - The apparel industry is expected to maintain stable demand in 2026, with innovation in operational models and products being the main growth drivers [6]. - The offline shopping center traffic is increasingly polarized, with top-tier shopping districts attracting significant customer flow, making them ideal for brands to showcase their image [8]. - The demand for functional apparel remains strong, particularly in the outdoor segment, which is projected to grow at a CAGR of 12.2% from 2014 to 2024, outpacing the overall apparel market [8]. Group 2: Jewelry Industry Insights - Jewelry sales are likely to continue being affected by high gold prices, with brands that emphasize product uniqueness expected to outperform the industry [12]. - The industry is witnessing a gradual recovery in sales baselines, and brands are enhancing their competitiveness through design innovation and optimizing channel images [12]. Group 3: OEM Manufacturers and Market Dynamics - Product innovation is identified as the primary driver for OEM manufacturers to gain market share, especially as demand for differentiated products increases [4][15]. - The textile manufacturing sector is anticipated to stabilize in 2026, recovering from profit margin lows caused by capacity expansion in 2025 [14]. - Manufacturers with technological advantages are expected to secure more orders by providing differentiated products to leading international brands [15].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strongly Recommended" with an expectation that the stock price will outperform the market by over 20% within six months [56]. Core Insights - The outdoor sports industry is experiencing a surge driven by the "dopamine economy," where emotional consumption is becoming a significant trend among consumers, particularly the younger generation [2][5]. - Both supply and demand sides are contributing to the growth of outdoor sports consumption, with government policies supporting infrastructure and service improvements, and a growing consumer preference for experiential and emotional value in purchases [5][6][9]. - The market for outdoor sports products is projected to reach approximately 27.44 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a stable growth trajectory [26][21]. Summary by Sections 01 Outdoor Sports: Activating the "Dopamine Economy" - Outdoor sports are increasingly favored by young people as a means to achieve happiness and express individuality, leading to a notable rise in emotional consumption [2][5]. - Government policies are actively promoting outdoor sports as a key area for economic growth, with a target to expand the industry to a total scale exceeding 7 trillion yuan by 2030 [6][7][9]. 02 Demand-Side Dominance: Driving Outdoor Sports Consumption - The outdoor sports market is robust, with a projected retail value of 26.22 billion yuan in 2022, growing by 3.39% year-on-year [26]. - The core motivations for outdoor sports participants include stress relief, physical fitness, and a connection with nature, with cycling, hiking, and climbing being the most popular activities [30][26]. - The younger demographic, particularly Generation Z, is leading the charge in emotional consumption, favoring experiences that provide joy and personal expression [10][18]. 03 Investment Recommendations and Key Focus Stocks - The report suggests focusing on segments related to emotional consumption, as this is expected to be a significant investment theme moving forward [49]. - Recommended companies include Anta Sports, 361 Degrees, and Amer Sports, which are well-positioned to capitalize on the growth in the outdoor sports sector [50][51].

Group 1 - The core focus of the article is on the surge in sales of hairy crabs on e-commerce platforms during the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, with some platforms expecting sales to increase by 4-5 times compared to pre-holiday levels [2][6] - E-commerce platforms have launched special sections for hairy crab sales, offering promotions such as crab cards and gift boxes to attract consumers [2][6] - The sales of crab cards on platforms like "What Worth Buying" have seen a year-on-year increase of 37.13%, with specific products like the Yangcheng Lake crab gift box becoming popular choices for gifting [6] Group 2 - Logistics companies are enhancing their fresh food delivery capabilities, with SF Express launching an intelligent express transfer center specifically for hairy crabs, increasing capacity by 100% compared to 2024 [7] - JD Supermarket has established a strategic partnership to create a crab base, aiming for an annual production of over 500,000 pounds of crabs [6][7] - The unique consumption patterns in September are attributed to the upcoming holidays, with increased demand for gifting and seasonal purchases, leading to an overall 20% increase in inventory for fresh e-commerce platforms [7][8] Group 3 - Travel-related products have seen a significant increase in sales, with smart luggage sales on JD platform growing over 10 times year-on-year, particularly in regions like Guangdong, Shanghai, and Beijing [8] - Women's clothing, especially autumn apparel, has become a major focus for purchases, with a year-on-year GMV increase of 96.58% for categories like trench coats and knitwear [8] - The demand for outdoor gear and travel convenience items, such as clothing and skincare storage bags, has also risen, with a 31.05% increase in popularity [8]

Core Insights - The upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day are driving a significant increase in sales of hairy crabs on e-commerce platforms, with some platforms expecting sales to grow by 4-5 times compared to pre-holiday levels [1][5] - The crab card GMV has seen a year-on-year increase of over 30%, indicating strong consumer demand [1] - E-commerce platforms are enhancing their supply chain capabilities, including automatic sorting systems and partnerships with local farms to ensure a steady supply of crabs [5] E-commerce Performance - The Yellow River hairy crab has shown remarkable performance, with pre-holiday sales achieving approximately 2 times year-on-year growth [5] - Platforms like Dingdong Maicai are exploring unique regional crab varieties beyond traditional sources, such as crabs from Xinjiang and Shandong [5] - The GMV for crab cards on the "What Worth Buying" platform has increased by 37.13%, with specific crab gift boxes becoming popular choices for consumers [5] Supply Chain and Logistics - E-commerce platforms are establishing strategic partnerships with local agricultural authorities to secure crab supplies, with JD Supermarket planning to produce over 500,000 pounds of crabs annually from its new base [5] - Logistics companies are enhancing their capabilities, with SF Express launching a dedicated smart express center for hairy crabs, increasing capacity by 100% compared to 2024 [5] - A tiered delivery system has been implemented by Yonghui, allowing for rapid delivery within 12 hours in key cities [7] Consumer Trends - The September consumer market is characterized by strong seasonal demand, with consumers preparing for the upcoming holidays and engaging in gift-giving and seasonal purchases [7] - Other categories, such as leisure snacks and outdoor gear, are also experiencing increased sales, with smart luggage sales on JD platform growing over 10 times year-on-year [7] - Women's clothing is a major focus for autumn purchases, with GMV for this category increasing by 96.58% on the "What Worth Buying" platform [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company is optimistic about investment opportunities in the outdoor sports and gold jewelry sectors, expecting industry leaders to continue achieving high growth [2][4]. Group 1: Outdoor Sports Industry - The outdoor sports sector benefits from a shift in lifestyle, with increasing consumer demand for outdoor apparel driven by a love for outdoor activities and innovations from leading manufacturers [4][19]. - The demand for functional outdoor clothing is rising, with consumers favoring comfort and performance, leading to a preference for high-tech materials [19][21]. - The market is seeing a trend towards product innovation and category segmentation, with brands focusing on specific outdoor activities to enhance consumer appeal [21][23]. - Companies like Bosideng are expanding their outdoor product lines, with outdoor revenue now accounting for over 30% of their total income [27]. Group 2: Gold Jewelry Industry - The gold jewelry sector is witnessing a rise in brands focusing on product and channel innovation, particularly in the fast-growing fixed-price gold category [27][28]. - Many brands are enhancing their competitiveness through high-end product offerings and innovative designs, integrating traditional cultural elements into their jewelry [27][28]. - The market is seeing a shift towards experiential retail, with brands investing in new store formats to attract consumers and enhance brand perception [33][35]. Group 3: Consumer Confidence and Market Trends - Consumer confidence is expected to continue its steady recovery, supported by government policies aimed at boosting consumption, with retail sales projected to grow by 5.0% in the first half of 2025 [7][10]. - The apparel sector is showing stable performance, with gold and silver jewelry sales growing at 11.3%, outperforming the overall retail market [7][10]. - The demand for functional and emotional value in consumer products is increasing, indicating a shift towards more diverse and higher-level consumer needs [12][44]. Group 4: Manufacturing and Trade Environment - The manufacturing sector is expected to benefit from a global production layout and efficiency, allowing leading companies to gain market share despite trade uncertainties [4][39]. - Recent tariff adjustments in the U.S. are alleviating some concerns for textile manufacturers, with a more favorable environment for companies with diversified production bases [40][41]. - The integration of supply chains is anticipated to accelerate, with leading suppliers expected to capture a larger market share due to their ability to manage cost fluctuations and production efficiency [41][45].

Core Viewpoint - The outdoor equipment market is experiencing significant growth, with brands increasingly using Mount Everest as a platform for marketing and brand validation, despite the challenges of appealing to a broader consumer base [2][3][4]. Industry Overview - The global outdoor equipment market is projected to reach $26 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.83% over the next five years [2]. - The Chinese outdoor products market is expected to grow from 215 billion yuan in 2024 to 270 billion yuan by 2026 [2]. Brand Strategy - Climbing Mount Everest serves as a powerful marketing tool for outdoor brands, establishing credibility and expertise in extreme conditions, which resonates with consumers [3][4]. - Brands like Camel, Kailas, and Bosideng have leveraged Everest climbs for promotional purposes, enhancing their visibility and brand recognition [3][4]. Market Competition - The competition among outdoor brands is intensifying, with many global brands entering the Chinese market, including Mammut, Patagonia, and Arc'teryx [4]. - The need for differentiation is emphasized, as many brands risk becoming homogenized in their marketing strategies by all attempting to associate with Everest [4]. Consumer Trends - A significant portion of outdoor enthusiasts (nearly 90%) engage in outdoor activities monthly, indicating a growing interest in outdoor lifestyles [6][7]. - The average annual spending of outdoor enthusiasts ranges between 2,000 to 5,000 yuan, reflecting a robust consumer market [7]. Product Development - Brands are shifting focus from high-altitude gear to more accessible outdoor products that cater to urban and casual outdoor activities, aiming to broaden their consumer base [6][7]. - The trend towards "light outdoor" and "urban outdoor" apparel is becoming increasingly popular, integrating outdoor elements into everyday fashion [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of the outdoor sports sector during the 618 shopping festival and the accelerating growth of domestic apparel retail sales in May 2025, while noting a weakening overall consumption environment in the U.S. [1][3] Group 1: 618 Shopping Festival Insights - The outdoor sports sector showed high vitality during the 618 shopping festival, with significant sales growth in sports and outdoor apparel, with transaction values exceeding 50% for various categories [2] - Top-selling brands on Tmall included Uniqlo, UR, and ZARA, while on Kuaishou, leading brands were Anta, Fila, and Xtep [2] Group 2: Domestic Retail Performance - In May 2025, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.40% year-on-year, with apparel retail sales growing by 3.50%, reflecting a 2 percentage point increase from April [3] - The growth in apparel sales is attributed to the timing of the 618 shopping festival, which likely boosted consumer spending [3] Group 3: U.S. Consumption Trends - In May 2025, U.S. retail sales decreased by 0.9% month-on-month but apparel retail sales showed resilience, with a 0.8% month-on-month increase and a 3.7% year-on-year increase [3] - The inventory turnover ratio for U.S. apparel retailers remained stable at 2.25 months, indicating a balanced inventory situation [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The company recommends focusing on high-quality manufacturing targets with strong pricing power, differentiated product development, robust financial reserves, and high shareholder returns [1] - Three investment themes are suggested: the ongoing trend of fitness and outdoor activities, companies expanding stores or improving management for higher customer spending, and the home textile sector benefiting from real estate stabilization and subsidy policies [1]