2026展望：制造板块关税扰动逐步消退，品牌关注复苏机遇及高增细分赛道。 智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，2025年，纺织制造与品牌端分别经历了外部环境的压力测 试，关税冲击与宏观环境压力扰动龙头公司经营，但龙头公司仍展现了优异的经营韧性。展望2026年， 制造板块的关税扰动有望逐步消退，品牌端建议关注复苏机遇及高增细分赛道。 综合梳理三条投资主线：一、纺织制造板块中，关税扰动逐渐消退，长期增长趋势不改，同时2026年各 龙头代工厂订单展望积极，盈利能力有望触底回升，同时部分龙头公司仍存在较大估值回升弹性。二、 品牌服饰板块中，参考海外龙头品牌公司走出2008年金融危机的经验，通过低谷期修炼内功，本土品牌 有望抓住零售复苏带来的经营改善机遇。三、户外运动主线，户外鞋服是鞋服行业中的景气度最高的赛 道之一，行业增长呈现提速趋势。同时除户外鞋服以外，部分户外装备赛道同样处于高景气周期。 2025复盘：关税冲击纺织制造公司经营，品牌服饰销售端持续承压。 复盘2025年来纺服板块表现，纺织制造与品牌端分别经历了外部环境的压力测试。具体来看，纺织制造 板块受4月关税冲击，短期订单波动带来产能利用率承压，通过经营 ...

（原标题：户外风刮到购物中心一层） 英国户外品牌Barbour正在试营业，它的对面是意大利自行车品牌COLNAGO，新西兰户外品牌 icebreaker隔壁的围挡上显示，美国户外品牌Smartwool全国首店也即将开业——走进北京来福士一楼， 一股户外风潮扑面而来。 一层向来是购物中心租金最高、位置最优越的黄金区域。几年前，这家购物中心靠近一楼入口的位置， 还是被轻奢服装、时尚潮牌、黄金珠宝等品牌占据。经过3年调整，如今北京来福士一层约40%的面 积，都让位给了定位高端的户外运动品牌。 不仅是场内，北京来福士东广场上那座墨绿色的骑行驿站把户外风延伸到场外，今年"五一"前骑行驿站 建成以来已经举办了近130场城市骑行活动。活动通常会从驿站前空地上的热身环节开始，参与者在解 锁全新骑行路线后，在刷新骑行榜排名的同时，也能兑换相应权益。 北京来福士中心是新加坡凯德集团旗下综合体旗舰品牌"来福士"的一员，坐落于北京市东直门立交桥的 西南角，地处东二环核心商务区。 凯德投资（中国）华北区商业管理董事总经理亓莉莉称，这个骑行驿站并非只是一个单纯的维修、补给 空间，还是由购物中心发起并长期维护的圈层会员互动平台，能够为对骑 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2026, product and channel innovation will be crucial for the growth of apparel brands, despite a stable overall industry growth. The differentiation in offline channel traffic and oversupply in the industry will necessitate brands to focus on product innovation and effective channel operations to maintain market position [3][6]. Group 1: Apparel Industry Trends - The apparel industry is expected to maintain stable demand in 2026, with innovation in operational models and products being the main growth drivers [6]. - The offline shopping center traffic is increasingly polarized, with top-tier shopping districts attracting significant customer flow, making them ideal for brands to showcase their image [8]. - The demand for functional apparel remains strong, particularly in the outdoor segment, which is projected to grow at a CAGR of 12.2% from 2014 to 2024, outpacing the overall apparel market [8]. Group 2: Jewelry Industry Insights - Jewelry sales are likely to continue being affected by high gold prices, with brands that emphasize product uniqueness expected to outperform the industry [12]. - The industry is witnessing a gradual recovery in sales baselines, and brands are enhancing their competitiveness through design innovation and optimizing channel images [12]. Group 3: OEM Manufacturers and Market Dynamics - Product innovation is identified as the primary driver for OEM manufacturers to gain market share, especially as demand for differentiated products increases [4][15]. - The textile manufacturing sector is anticipated to stabilize in 2026, recovering from profit margin lows caused by capacity expansion in 2025 [14]. - Manufacturers with technological advantages are expected to secure more orders by providing differentiated products to leading international brands [15].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strongly Recommended" with an expectation that the stock price will outperform the market by over 20% within six months [56]. Core Insights - The outdoor sports industry is experiencing a surge driven by the "dopamine economy," where emotional consumption is becoming a significant trend among consumers, particularly the younger generation [2][5]. - Both supply and demand sides are contributing to the growth of outdoor sports consumption, with government policies supporting infrastructure and service improvements, and a growing consumer preference for experiential and emotional value in purchases [5][6][9]. - The market for outdoor sports products is projected to reach approximately 27.44 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a stable growth trajectory [26][21]. Summary by Sections 01 Outdoor Sports: Activating the "Dopamine Economy" - Outdoor sports are increasingly favored by young people as a means to achieve happiness and express individuality, leading to a notable rise in emotional consumption [2][5]. - Government policies are actively promoting outdoor sports as a key area for economic growth, with a target to expand the industry to a total scale exceeding 7 trillion yuan by 2030 [6][7][9]. 02 Demand-Side Dominance: Driving Outdoor Sports Consumption - The outdoor sports market is robust, with a projected retail value of 26.22 billion yuan in 2022, growing by 3.39% year-on-year [26]. - The core motivations for outdoor sports participants include stress relief, physical fitness, and a connection with nature, with cycling, hiking, and climbing being the most popular activities [30][26]. - The younger demographic, particularly Generation Z, is leading the charge in emotional consumption, favoring experiences that provide joy and personal expression [10][18]. 03 Investment Recommendations and Key Focus Stocks - The report suggests focusing on segments related to emotional consumption, as this is expected to be a significant investment theme moving forward [49]. - Recommended companies include Anta Sports, 361 Degrees, and Amer Sports, which are well-positioned to capitalize on the growth in the outdoor sports sector [50][51].

Group 1 - The core focus of the article is on the surge in sales of hairy crabs on e-commerce platforms during the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, with some platforms expecting sales to increase by 4-5 times compared to pre-holiday levels [2][6] - E-commerce platforms have launched special sections for hairy crab sales, offering promotions such as crab cards and gift boxes to attract consumers [2][6] - The sales of crab cards on platforms like "What Worth Buying" have seen a year-on-year increase of 37.13%, with specific products like the Yangcheng Lake crab gift box becoming popular choices for gifting [6] Group 2 - Logistics companies are enhancing their fresh food delivery capabilities, with SF Express launching an intelligent express transfer center specifically for hairy crabs, increasing capacity by 100% compared to 2024 [7] - JD Supermarket has established a strategic partnership to create a crab base, aiming for an annual production of over 500,000 pounds of crabs [6][7] - The unique consumption patterns in September are attributed to the upcoming holidays, with increased demand for gifting and seasonal purchases, leading to an overall 20% increase in inventory for fresh e-commerce platforms [7][8] Group 3 - Travel-related products have seen a significant increase in sales, with smart luggage sales on JD platform growing over 10 times year-on-year, particularly in regions like Guangdong, Shanghai, and Beijing [8] - Women's clothing, especially autumn apparel, has become a major focus for purchases, with a year-on-year GMV increase of 96.58% for categories like trench coats and knitwear [8] - The demand for outdoor gear and travel convenience items, such as clothing and skincare storage bags, has also risen, with a 31.05% increase in popularity [8]

Core Insights - The upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day are driving a significant increase in sales of hairy crabs on e-commerce platforms, with some platforms expecting sales to grow by 4-5 times compared to pre-holiday levels [1][5] - The crab card GMV has seen a year-on-year increase of over 30%, indicating strong consumer demand [1] - E-commerce platforms are enhancing their supply chain capabilities, including automatic sorting systems and partnerships with local farms to ensure a steady supply of crabs [5] E-commerce Performance - The Yellow River hairy crab has shown remarkable performance, with pre-holiday sales achieving approximately 2 times year-on-year growth [5] - Platforms like Dingdong Maicai are exploring unique regional crab varieties beyond traditional sources, such as crabs from Xinjiang and Shandong [5] - The GMV for crab cards on the "What Worth Buying" platform has increased by 37.13%, with specific crab gift boxes becoming popular choices for consumers [5] Supply Chain and Logistics - E-commerce platforms are establishing strategic partnerships with local agricultural authorities to secure crab supplies, with JD Supermarket planning to produce over 500,000 pounds of crabs annually from its new base [5] - Logistics companies are enhancing their capabilities, with SF Express launching a dedicated smart express center for hairy crabs, increasing capacity by 100% compared to 2024 [5] - A tiered delivery system has been implemented by Yonghui, allowing for rapid delivery within 12 hours in key cities [7] Consumer Trends - The September consumer market is characterized by strong seasonal demand, with consumers preparing for the upcoming holidays and engaging in gift-giving and seasonal purchases [7] - Other categories, such as leisure snacks and outdoor gear, are also experiencing increased sales, with smart luggage sales on JD platform growing over 10 times year-on-year [7] - Women's clothing is a major focus for autumn purchases, with GMV for this category increasing by 96.58% on the "What Worth Buying" platform [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company is optimistic about investment opportunities in the outdoor sports and gold jewelry sectors, expecting industry leaders to continue achieving high growth [2][4]. Group 1: Outdoor Sports Industry - The outdoor sports sector benefits from a shift in lifestyle, with increasing consumer demand for outdoor apparel driven by a love for outdoor activities and innovations from leading manufacturers [4][19]. - The demand for functional outdoor clothing is rising, with consumers favoring comfort and performance, leading to a preference for high-tech materials [19][21]. - The market is seeing a trend towards product innovation and category segmentation, with brands focusing on specific outdoor activities to enhance consumer appeal [21][23]. - Companies like Bosideng are expanding their outdoor product lines, with outdoor revenue now accounting for over 30% of their total income [27]. Group 2: Gold Jewelry Industry - The gold jewelry sector is witnessing a rise in brands focusing on product and channel innovation, particularly in the fast-growing fixed-price gold category [27][28]. - Many brands are enhancing their competitiveness through high-end product offerings and innovative designs, integrating traditional cultural elements into their jewelry [27][28]. - The market is seeing a shift towards experiential retail, with brands investing in new store formats to attract consumers and enhance brand perception [33][35]. Group 3: Consumer Confidence and Market Trends - Consumer confidence is expected to continue its steady recovery, supported by government policies aimed at boosting consumption, with retail sales projected to grow by 5.0% in the first half of 2025 [7][10]. - The apparel sector is showing stable performance, with gold and silver jewelry sales growing at 11.3%, outperforming the overall retail market [7][10]. - The demand for functional and emotional value in consumer products is increasing, indicating a shift towards more diverse and higher-level consumer needs [12][44]. Group 4: Manufacturing and Trade Environment - The manufacturing sector is expected to benefit from a global production layout and efficiency, allowing leading companies to gain market share despite trade uncertainties [4][39]. - Recent tariff adjustments in the U.S. are alleviating some concerns for textile manufacturers, with a more favorable environment for companies with diversified production bases [40][41]. - The integration of supply chains is anticipated to accelerate, with leading suppliers expected to capture a larger market share due to their ability to manage cost fluctuations and production efficiency [41][45].

Core Viewpoint - The outdoor equipment market is experiencing significant growth, with brands increasingly using Mount Everest as a platform for marketing and brand validation, despite the challenges of appealing to a broader consumer base [2][3][4]. Industry Overview - The global outdoor equipment market is projected to reach $26 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.83% over the next five years [2]. - The Chinese outdoor products market is expected to grow from 215 billion yuan in 2024 to 270 billion yuan by 2026 [2]. Brand Strategy - Climbing Mount Everest serves as a powerful marketing tool for outdoor brands, establishing credibility and expertise in extreme conditions, which resonates with consumers [3][4]. - Brands like Camel, Kailas, and Bosideng have leveraged Everest climbs for promotional purposes, enhancing their visibility and brand recognition [3][4]. Market Competition - The competition among outdoor brands is intensifying, with many global brands entering the Chinese market, including Mammut, Patagonia, and Arc'teryx [4]. - The need for differentiation is emphasized, as many brands risk becoming homogenized in their marketing strategies by all attempting to associate with Everest [4]. Consumer Trends - A significant portion of outdoor enthusiasts (nearly 90%) engage in outdoor activities monthly, indicating a growing interest in outdoor lifestyles [6][7]. - The average annual spending of outdoor enthusiasts ranges between 2,000 to 5,000 yuan, reflecting a robust consumer market [7]. Product Development - Brands are shifting focus from high-altitude gear to more accessible outdoor products that cater to urban and casual outdoor activities, aiming to broaden their consumer base [6][7]. - The trend towards "light outdoor" and "urban outdoor" apparel is becoming increasingly popular, integrating outdoor elements into everyday fashion [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of the outdoor sports sector during the 618 shopping festival and the accelerating growth of domestic apparel retail sales in May 2025, while noting a weakening overall consumption environment in the U.S. [1][3] Group 1: 618 Shopping Festival Insights - The outdoor sports sector showed high vitality during the 618 shopping festival, with significant sales growth in sports and outdoor apparel, with transaction values exceeding 50% for various categories [2] - Top-selling brands on Tmall included Uniqlo, UR, and ZARA, while on Kuaishou, leading brands were Anta, Fila, and Xtep [2] Group 2: Domestic Retail Performance - In May 2025, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.40% year-on-year, with apparel retail sales growing by 3.50%, reflecting a 2 percentage point increase from April [3] - The growth in apparel sales is attributed to the timing of the 618 shopping festival, which likely boosted consumer spending [3] Group 3: U.S. Consumption Trends - In May 2025, U.S. retail sales decreased by 0.9% month-on-month but apparel retail sales showed resilience, with a 0.8% month-on-month increase and a 3.7% year-on-year increase [3] - The inventory turnover ratio for U.S. apparel retailers remained stable at 2.25 months, indicating a balanced inventory situation [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The company recommends focusing on high-quality manufacturing targets with strong pricing power, differentiated product development, robust financial reserves, and high shareholder returns [1] - Three investment themes are suggested: the ongoing trend of fitness and outdoor activities, companies expanding stores or improving management for higher customer spending, and the home textile sector benefiting from real estate stabilization and subsidy policies [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the sports and outdoor apparel sectors showed significant growth during the 618 shopping festival, with transaction values increasing by over 50% for various categories [1][2] - Major brands such as Nike, Fila, and Adidas saw transaction values exceed 100 million, while 2,196 brands including Salomon and HOKA experienced year-on-year growth of over 100% [2] - The report highlights three investment themes: the continuation of the fitness and outdoor trend, the potential for brands to expand stores or achieve high customer retention through refined management, and the home textile sector benefiting from real estate stabilization and subsidy policies [1] Group 2 - In May 2025, China's retail sales of clothing increased by 3.5% year-on-year, with a month-on-month acceleration attributed to the early timing of the 618 shopping festival [3] - In the U.S., retail sales decreased by 0.9% month-on-month in May 2025, but clothing and accessories saw a month-on-month increase of 0.8% and a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, indicating relative resilience in clothing consumption [4] - The inventory turnover ratio for U.S. clothing retailers remained stable at 2.25 months, suggesting a balanced supply-demand situation [4]