Group 1 - Market confidence in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September is wavering, with the probability now around 70%, a significant drop from the end of June [1] - The upcoming June Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is seen as a critical factor that could influence the Fed's policy direction for the second half of the year [1] - Economists expect the core CPI year-on-year rate for June to accelerate to 2.9%, the highest level since February [1] Group 2 - There is a significant division within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts, with some officials advocating for no cuts until 2025, while others support two or more cuts [2] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell has indicated the need for more time to assess the impact of tariffs on the economy before considering rate cuts [2] - The bond market is currently in a state of uncertainty, with traders recently closing bullish positions and the two-year Treasury yield fluctuating between 3.7% and 4% [2] Group 3 - Analysts believe the upcoming inflation report will reflect the impact of the trade war, and they do not expect the Fed to cut rates in September due to a resilient job market and risks in the asset market [3] - The market is pricing in two rate cuts before December, with the possibility of one being delayed to the first quarter of next year [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve will hold a two-day monetary policy meeting starting May 6, marking the first meeting after President Trump threatened to dismiss Chairman Jerome Powell [2] - Market expectations indicate a 96.9% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates, with only a 3.1% chance of a 25 basis point cut [2] - The U.S. labor department reported an increase of 177,000 non-farm jobs in April, exceeding the expected 130,000, which supports the Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged [4] Group 2 - Powell highlighted that the U.S. government's tariff increases could complicate the Fed's dual mandate of promoting employment and stabilizing prices [4] - Trump's pressure for a rate cut has intensified, as he claims there is no inflation in the U.S., despite Powell's stance of waiting for clearer economic signals before making policy adjustments [5][6] - Analysts believe that Trump's ongoing pressure may make it more difficult for the Fed to lower rates, as the Fed aims to maintain its independence [5]