安粮期货认为，本轮回调被普遍视为健康的"技术性回调"，而非趋势性反转。驱动金价上涨的长期宏观 背景依然稳固。美联储降息周期已开启且市场预期本周将继续降息，全球央行持续的购金趋势为市场提 供了坚实的需求基础，同时全球不确定性环境(如美元信用担忧、债务问题)并未发生根本性扭转。金价 在充分回调企稳后，中长期仍有望恢复上行趋势。 消息方面，昨日，伦敦金银市场协会(LBMA)代表预测，未来12个月内黄金价格将升至每盎司4980美 元，白银将升至每盎司59美元，铂金升至1816美元，钯金升至1709美元。当前金价受地缘政治紧张、美 国关税不确定性及"害怕错过"情绪推动。 10月28日，黄金期货价格触底回升，COMEX黄金期货价格维持在3990点附近，昨日黄金市场再度回 踩，黄金ETF华夏(518850)下跌3.5%，黄金股ETF(159562)下跌3.62%。市场受中美贸易磋商缓和及美债 收益率波动影响，短期避险需求受抑，但美联储宽松预期支撑中长期价值。黄金价格预计在900-945元/ 克区间震荡，白银在10700-11800元/千克区间波动。 ...

Group 1 - The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Goolsbee stated that the latest internal research indicates the U.S. labor market remains stable, suggesting a robust overall economic growth [1] - There are internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the extent of future interest rate cuts, with some officials concerned about a potential weakening labor market while others focus on high inflation [1] - The median forecast from the dot plot after last month's monetary policy meeting indicates two rate cuts are expected in 2025, with Goolsbee emphasizing significant room for rate reductions if inflation moves towards the 2% target [1] Group 2 - Due to the government shutdown, official economic data releases are delayed, prompting Federal Reserve officials to seek alternative data for decision-making, with Goolsbee mentioning that the unemployment rate is likely to remain unchanged in September [1] - Mortgage rates in the U.S. have risen for the second consecutive week, with the average 30-year fixed rate increasing to 6.34%, up from 6.3% the previous week [1] - Despite rising mortgage rates, homebuyers are responding to the significant drop in loan rates earlier in the year, as evidenced by a five-month high in existing home sales contracts in August, although many buyers remain cautious due to concerns over borrowing costs and economic outlook [1] Group 3 - Analysts predict that mortgage rates are likely to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term due to volatility in U.S. Treasury yields and the government shutdown [2] - The timing of the government shutdown is particularly sensitive, coinciding with the anticipated first rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2025, which could create uncertainty for future central bank decisions if key data releases are delayed [2] - It is noted that the Federal Reserve operates independently, and the October meeting will not be directly affected, but prolonged shutdowns could amplify potential impacts on the market and policy [2]

Economic Data - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for August showed an increase of only 22,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 75,000 [2] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, marking the highest level since 2021 [2] Stock Market Reaction - Following the disappointing employment data, U.S. stock indices initially opened higher but later experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones down 0.82%, Nasdaq down 0.69%, and S&P 500 down 0.75% [2][3] - The Nasdaq 100 index reversed its earlier gains, while the Chinese concept stocks showed resilience, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index up 0.55% [2][3] Bond Market - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell over 8 basis points to 4.08%, reaching a four-month low [11][12] - The decline in bond yields is attributed to the weak labor market data, leading traders to anticipate further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [9][15] Commodity Market - Gold prices surged, reaching a new record high of $3,590.93 per ounce, with an intraday increase of 1.29% [7] - Crude oil prices also fell, with NYMEX WTI down 2% to $62.17 per barrel [12] Federal Reserve Outlook - The weak labor market data has led to a consensus that the Federal Reserve is likely to resume interest rate cuts later in September [14][15] - Analysts suggest that the combination of tariff uncertainties, immigration changes, and the rise of AI applications is contributing to a weakening labor market [15]

Group 1 - The latest US non-farm payroll report for August showed an increase of only 22,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 75,000 [1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest level since the end of 2021, indicating a weakening labor market [1] - Following the disappointing employment data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September has reached 100% according to market expectations [2] Group 2 - The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reported that job vacancies in July fell to 7.181 million, the lowest since September 2024, and below the expected 7.382 million [2] - The ADP report indicated that private sector job growth in August was only 54,000, falling short of the anticipated 65,000 and significantly down from the revised 106,000 in the previous month [2] - Initial jobless claims increased by 8,000 to 237,000, marking the highest level since June 2025, against an expectation of 230,000 [2] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the combination of tariff policy uncertainty, immigration changes, and the rise of AI applications is contributing to a weakening labor market, reinforcing the case for interest rate cuts [3] - Concerns about inflation, fiscal health, and geopolitical instability are raising doubts about the stability of US Treasury bonds, traditionally seen as safe assets [3] - The US government's fiscal and debt situation is described as being in a "quasi-war state," necessitating fiscal consolidation [3] Group 4 - Central banks globally are reducing their bond holdings after previously engaging in quantitative easing during the pandemic, which had increased demand for long-term sovereign bonds [4] - The shift from defined benefit pension plans to defined contribution plans is leading to a decline in demand for long-term bonds from pension funds [4] Group 5 - Large institutions, such as Australian retirement trust funds managing approximately 216 billion USD, are reducing their exposure to US Treasuries, reflecting a broader trend of reassessing asset allocation [5] - Concerns about high debt levels, a weakening economy, and high inflation continue to pose risks to the US Treasury market, even if the government shifts to issuing short-term bonds [5]

Core Insights - Arm Holdings' stock price has experienced significant volatility, with a decline of 4.32% on September 2, marking a cumulative drop of 7.16% over two days [1] - The decline in Arm Holdings' stock is primarily attributed to the overall weak performance of Nvidia-related stocks, which directly impacted Arm Holdings [1] - The rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which increased by 4 basis points to 4.27%, has also exerted pressure on technology stocks, contributing to the negative market sentiment [1] Investment Perspective - Market participants should closely monitor changes in bond yields and their impact on the technology sector, given the current economic environment characterized by high interest rate uncertainty [1] - Despite short-term stock price pressures, Arm Holdings is viewed as a promising technology company with potential long-term investment value [1] - For investors with a higher risk tolerance, considering buying on dips during stock price adjustments may be a worthwhile strategy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in long-term U.S. Treasury yields is attributed to the signing of the "Big and Beautiful" bill, which is expected to raise the U.S. fiscal deficit, alongside ongoing uncertainties from global tariff conflicts initiated by the Trump administration [1][9]. Treasury Yield Summary - The 30-year Treasury yield is approaching 5%, while the 20-year yield is also nearing this threshold, and the 10-year yield is close to 4.5% [2][3]. - Shorter-term Treasury yields are relatively stable, with the 1-year yield exceeding 4% and the 2-year, 3-year, and 5-year yields fluctuating around 3.9% [3]. - Recent fluctuations in Treasury yields have led to corresponding changes in long-term Treasury futures prices, with the 10-year futures price dropping from nearly $112 to $110.77 [4]. Market Reactions to Legislation - The "Big and Beautiful" bill, which raises the federal debt ceiling to $5 trillion and includes tax cuts to stimulate economic growth, has raised concerns about increased Treasury supply, potentially leading to higher yields [9]. - The anticipated net issuance of Treasury securities is projected to be around $1 trillion in the third quarter, with refinancing pressures easing compared to the previous quarter [9]. Tariff Concerns - The announcement of a 30% tariff on imports from Mexico and the EU starting August 1, 2025, has added to market anxieties, contributing to the volatility in Treasury yields [10]. - Despite these concerns, the long-term value of U.S. Treasuries is supported by the market's recognition of U.S. creditworthiness and the expected downward trend in interest rates [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the "Big and Beautiful" Act on the U.S. Treasury market, highlighting concerns over increased fiscal deficits and trade conflicts, which have led to rising long-term U.S. Treasury yields [2][10]. Treasury Yield Trends - Long-term U.S. Treasury yields have shown increased volatility, with the 30-year yield approaching 5% and the 10-year yield nearing 4.5% [3][4]. - As of recent data, the 30-year Treasury yield is at 4.981%, while the 10-year yield is at 4.5% [4][5]. - The prices of long-term Treasury futures have also fluctuated, with the 10-year futures price dropping to 110.77 from a peak of nearly 112 earlier in the year [5][6]. Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on monetary policy is influenced by strong labor market data, with non-farm payrolls adding 147,000 jobs, aligning with the average monthly increase over the past year [8]. - The Fed's decision-making will continue to rely on economic data, with a current low unemployment rate and inflation slightly above the 2% target [8]. - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have diminished, with a 95.3% probability of no change in July [8]. Legislative Impact - The "Big and Beautiful" Act, signed into law, raises the federal debt ceiling to $5 trillion and aims to stimulate economic growth through tax cuts [10]. - Concerns about increased Treasury supply due to the Act may lead to a temporary rise in Treasury yields [10]. - The net issuance of Treasury bonds is expected to be around $1 trillion in the third quarter, with refinancing pressures easing compared to previous quarters [10]. Trade Policy Concerns - Ongoing trade tensions, particularly the announcement of new tariffs on imports from Mexico and the EU, add to market uncertainties [11]. - Despite these challenges, the long-term value of U.S. Treasuries remains supported by the market's recognition of U.S. creditworthiness and the stability of Treasury yields [11].

Group 1 - Market confidence in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September is wavering, with the probability now around 70%, a significant drop from the end of June [1] - The upcoming June Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is seen as a critical factor that could influence the Fed's policy direction for the second half of the year [1] - Economists expect the core CPI year-on-year rate for June to accelerate to 2.9%, the highest level since February [1] Group 2 - There is a significant division within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts, with some officials advocating for no cuts until 2025, while others support two or more cuts [2] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell has indicated the need for more time to assess the impact of tariffs on the economy before considering rate cuts [2] - The bond market is currently in a state of uncertainty, with traders recently closing bullish positions and the two-year Treasury yield fluctuating between 3.7% and 4% [2] Group 3 - Analysts believe the upcoming inflation report will reflect the impact of the trade war, and they do not expect the Fed to cut rates in September due to a resilient job market and risks in the asset market [3] - The market is pricing in two rate cuts before December, with the possibility of one being delayed to the first quarter of next year [3]

Group 1 - The US Treasury market has experienced significant volatility since April 2025, with 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields dropping to 3.44% and 3.86% respectively due to poor economic data and tariff policies [2] - From April 7 to 11, the 10-year Treasury yield surged by 56 basis points to a peak of 4.53%, marking the largest weekly increase since 2001, while the 30-year yield rose by 44 basis points to 4.97%, the largest since 1982 [2] - The US federal debt has reached $36.2 trillion, accounting for 123% of GDP, significantly exceeding the internationally recognized warning line of 60% [2] Group 2 - The recent US tariff increases have severely impacted global economic order and financial markets, leading to heightened risk sentiment towards dollar assets and increased volatility in US stock markets [3] - The Chinese economy is showing a positive trend with a stable financial system, and the impact of single market fluctuations on China's foreign exchange reserves is considered limited [3] - The volatility in the US Treasury market is influenced by economic data, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and global market risk appetite [4] Group 3 - There is a significant risk of stagflation in the US economy starting from the second quarter, with Treasury yields typically showing a pattern of initially declining due to recession fears before rising with inflation pressures [5] - In a stagflation environment, the maximum decline in yields could range from 25 to 150 basis points depending on the economic conditions, with current targets for the 10-year yield set between 3.6% and 4% [5] - The market's expectations for interest rate cuts may be overly optimistic, and adjustments in these expectations could lead to a decline in yield spreads [5]

作 者丨李域 编 辑丨巫燕玲，江佩佩 美国资产周一重演股债汇三杀。 当地时间4月2 1日，美股三大指数全线下跌，道琼斯工业指数、纳斯达克指数、标普5 0 0指数 均跌逾2%。 美 债 波 动 率 也 再 度 回 升 ， 长 期 美 债 的 抛 售 导 致 收 益 率 曲 线 急 剧 变 陡 。 美 元 指 数 跌 0 . 8 8% 报 9 8 . 3 5 ， 创 三 年 来 新 低 ， 盘 中 一 度 连 续 跌 破 9 9 、 9 8 两 大 整 数 位 关 口 ； 美 元 兑 日 元 跌 破 1 4 1 关 口，跌0 . 9 4%报1 4 0 . 8 5。 昨夜，美股大跌！道指跌近1 0 0 0点 据Wi n d，截至4月2 1日收盘，美股大幅收跌，道指跌9 7 1 . 8 2点。 | 新版 | 成分 | | 资讯 | 相关基金 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | | 现价 | | 涨跌幅 ◆ | | 苹果(APPLE) | | 193.160 | | -1.94% | | AAPL.O | | | | | | 谷歌(ALPHABET) | | 149.860 ...