Core Insights - The Brazilian real is experiencing significant volatility due to dual pressures from recent comments by Trump regarding tariffs and rumors of domestic policy changes [1][2] - The implied volatility of the USD/BRL exchange rate has surged, indicating heightened market uncertainty regarding the future of the real [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The 1-month implied volatility for the USD/BRL exchange rate jumped by 4.0 basis points to 14.0, nearing the high of 14.5 recorded in July 2025 [1] - Historical data shows that this volatility indicator peaked at 17.0 during the first round of tariff threats from the U.S. in April, suggesting current uncertainty is approaching critical warning levels [1] Group 2: Risk Factors - Trump's recent threats to impose additional tariffs and his interference in Brazil's judicial processes have raised concerns about trade policy uncertainty [1] - Rumors regarding a large-scale social assistance program by the Brazilian government have intensified selling pressure on the real, further increasing expectations of exchange rate volatility [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The options market reflects a strong bearish sentiment, with the 1-month 25 delta risk reversal indicator nearing a 7-month high of 3.4, indicating a significant demand for hedging against depreciation of the real [1] - The rising volatility risk premium of the real has also impacted Asian currency options, leading to increased pricing pressure in the region [2]

记者 | 金珊 编辑 | 曾静娇 经历两天前黑天鹅事件暴跌后，币圈止跌强势反弹。 10月13日，现货黄金开盘快速拉升，一度涨破4060美元，刷历史新高。截至7时30分左右，涨幅略微收 窄，最新报4049.16美元/盎司。 美股股指期货开盘上涨。截至北京时间13日7时15分左右，标普500指数期货涨超0.9%，纳斯达克100指 数期货涨超1.2%，道琼斯指数期货涨超0.9%。 据CME"美联储观察"最新数据，美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为2.2%，降息25个基点的概率为 97.8%。美联储12月维持利率不变概率为0%，累计降息25个基点的概率为2.2%，累计降息50个基点的概 率为96.7%。 | 排名 | 市种 | 价格 | 价格(24h%) | 资金费率 | 24小时成交额 | 成交额(24h%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | B BTC | $114835 | +3.64% | 0.0028% | $1109.01亿 | +4.91% | | 2 | + ETH | $4115.64 | +10.14% | -0.0069% | ...