尽管这一波动仍不及于去年法国总统马克龙意外决定提前举行大选后引发的混乱，但它凸显了政治风险 能够快速重塑市场情绪。 本周初，法国总理辞职，市场动荡不安。目前，投资者正关注总统埃马克龙今晚任命继任者的消息，希 望此举能平息市场，并为预算案在议会获得通过铺平道路。 智通财经APP获悉，由于法国政局动荡，期权交易员对欧元的悲观情绪为数月来最高水平，本周欧元市 场人气急剧下滑。尽管法国股市和债市有所回升，但欧元却即将迎来一年来表现最糟糕的一周，期权定 价显示欧元未来一个月的前景堪称自6月以来最为黯淡。鉴于交易员们直到周二仍普遍看涨欧元，这可 谓是一次急剧的逆转。 本周的走势是近年来欧元区最引人注目的走势之一：所谓的风险逆转指标正出现自 2022 年夏季以来一 周内第三大看跌重新定价。 ...

"我们发现，对冲基金正寻求在短期内进行美元多头的战术性操作，"巴克莱银行(Barclays Bank Plc)全球 外汇期权主管穆昆德·达加(Mukund Daga)表示，他所指的是年底前到期的期权合约。 全球对冲基金在期权市场似乎倾向于做多美元，他们押注美元对多数主要货币的反弹势头将延续至年 底。交易员透露，欧洲和亚洲的基金本周加大了期权交易力度，其核心观点是欧元、日元等货币将相对 美元走弱。芝加哥商品交易所集团(CME Group)的数据显示，12月底前到期的欧元兑美元看跌期权(若该 货币对下跌，此类期权价值将上升)在周三的交易量，是同期看涨期权交易量的三倍。 "美元看涨期权的买入需求主要集中在十国集团主要货币上，这些货币短期风险逆转指标的攀升，是需 求转向的良好信号，"花旗集团驻新加坡亚太区外汇交易主管内森·斯瓦米(Nathan Swami)表示。风险逆 转指标用于对比看涨期权与看跌期权的价格。 斯瓦米认为，"目前判断这是否是美元触底的明确信号，仍为时过早。"不过达加表示，他已观察到市场 对长期低价期权的战术性买入行为——这类期权能从美元大幅上涨中获利，交易员通常将其称为"尾部 风险"对冲工具。 媒体美 ...

随着美国进入近七年来首次政府停摆，美元正迎来一个月内持续时间最长的下跌走势。历史数据显示， 政府停摆通常会对美元构成压力，期权市场也呈现出这一趋势。风险逆转指标（用于衡量看涨与看跌交 易的需求差距）显示，未来一个月美元面临进一步下行风险。杰富瑞首席欧洲策略师Mohit Kumar表 示，股市下跌和美国国债上涨的幅度可能较为温和，但"外汇市场是我们不会指望逆转当前走势的市 场"，他预计美元疲软态势将持续。政府停摆的持续时间至关重要，停摆时间越长，美元承受的压力就 越大。今年以来，美元已跌至2022年以来的最低水平，原因包括特朗普执政下政策的不确定性、赤字不 断扩大，以及美联储独立性面临的压力，这些因素均引发投资者担忧。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index is experiencing slight upward movement despite recent weak employment data and the resignation of a Federal Reserve official, leading to increased demand for bearish options on the dollar [1] Market Analysis - The current price of the US dollar index is reported at 98.81, with a 0.06% increase from an opening price of 98.75 [1] - The market has largely priced in expectations for a rate cut in September, limiting the downside potential for the dollar [1] - Implied volatility has surged, with the 1-month risk reversal indicator rising to 0.55 and the 1-year risk reversal indicator increasing to 0.725 [1] Technical Levels - Short-term resistance for the dollar index is identified at 98.95-99.00, with significant resistance at 99.15-99.20 [1] - Short-term support levels are noted at 98.55-98.60, with important support at 98.35-98.40 [1] - A trading strategy suggests selling in the range of 99.00-98.35, with a stop loss of 20 points and a target at the lower end of the range [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant bearish sentiment towards the US dollar, with traders holding nearly $20 billion in net short positions across major and emerging market currencies [1] - A Reuters survey shows that among nine Asian currencies, seven are expected to appreciate against the US dollar, with the Singapore dollar attracting large long positions [1] - The dollar's long positions are primarily limited to the Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, and Swiss franc, highlighting a rare divergence in market sentiment [1] Group 2 - The upcoming Japanese Senate election on July 20 is viewed as a key risk event in the forex options market, with increased demand for call options on USD/JPY at strike prices as high as 150.00 [1] - Implied volatility has risen from 9% to 10%, reflecting market concerns over the uncertainty of the election results, with one-month volatility also increasing to 10.5% [2] - The risk reversal indicator shows that the premium for short-term call options on the yen relative to put options has narrowed to its lowest level of the year, suggesting expectations of increased fiscal stimulus if the ruling coalition loses its majority [2]

Core Viewpoint - The euro is increasingly being used as a safe-haven currency and is gaining traction in the global foreign exchange options market, as traders seek to avoid the unpredictable U.S. dollar amid trade war risks and economic uncertainties [1][5]. Group 1: Euro's Growing Role - Approximately 15% to 30% of contracts linked to the U.S. dollar against major currencies have shifted to the euro in the first five months of this year [1]. - The euro has appreciated by 11% against the U.S. dollar this year, reaching its highest level since 2021 at over 1.16 USD [5]. - The euro is being viewed as a key driver in a potentially more significant European capital flow environment, according to BNP Paribas options strategist Oliver Brennan [1]. Group 2: Dollar's Decline - The U.S. dollar has seen a decline of over 7% against a basket of major currencies, marking its lowest level since 2022 [5]. - Hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones predicts a further 10% decline in the dollar over the next year [5]. - The implied volatility of the euro against the yen has decreased relative to that of the dollar against the yen, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards the euro as a safer asset [5][9]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Strategy - Traders are increasingly favoring the euro over the dollar when hedging or betting on significant volatility in the yen, as evidenced by the widening spread in the "10-delta fly wing" options [9]. - The market is seeking cheaper ways to express bullish views on the euro, especially in light of the potential for better performance compared to the dollar [6]. - European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has called for policymakers to seize the opportunity to enhance the euro's global standing [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a growing belief among traders that the euro has further appreciation potential, particularly in light of the G7 meeting and recent market movements [1][4]. - Data from the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) shows that the gap between bullish and bearish euro options has widened significantly, with demand for euro call options reaching its highest level of the year [1][4]. - The euro's rise is attributed to a weaker dollar following Moody's downgrade of U.S. debt, with the euro reaching a 10-day high near 1.13 against the dollar [1][4]. Group 2 - Analysts from Danske Bank attribute the euro's recent strength to widespread dollar selling and comments from ECB President Lagarde, suggesting that market reactions are influenced by inconsistent U.S. policy signals [4]. - The risk reversal indicator, which measures the difference in implied volatility between bullish and bearish options, has surged recently, indicating increased market confidence in the euro's further rise [4][5]. - ING's foreign exchange strategy head notes that any minor adjustments in the G7 communiqué regarding currency policy could significantly impact the dollar's trajectory, particularly against the euro and yen [4].