Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Coal and Coking Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: May 13, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Research Institute, Black Research Team [2] - Analysts: Yuan Ming (Z0012648), Zhang Xuan (F03118257) [2] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Steel's spot profit remains high, driving iron - water production up. Coal and coke have short - term strong supply and demand, with a fair fundamental situation. In the long - term, due to coal supply guarantee and crude steel reduction expectations, coking coal surplus is hard to resolve, and coal prices may decline slowly. Coke's supply - demand contradiction is relatively controllable, but steel's far - month orders are falling, and the first price cut has started, making it difficult for the coke futures to rise. Maintain the idea of shorting on rebounds and avoid bottom - fishing [4]. Group 4: Risk Management Strategies Coke - For coking plants with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short J2509 coke futures according to sales plans. 25% hedging ratio at 1500 - 1550, 50% at 1550 - 1600 [3] Coking Coal - For traders with high coking coal inventory worried about price drops, they can sell JM2509 coking coal futures to lock in selling prices. 25% hedging ratio at 900 - 950, 50% at 950 - 1000 [3] Group 5: Market Analysis 利多解读 - Tariff negotiation eases, leading to a rebound in global risk assets [5] 利空解读 - Steel mills start the first price cut, to be implemented on the 16th; domestic coal mines have weak incentives to cut production, and stable supply causes serious coking coal surplus [8] - Black futures' daily warehouse receipt data shows that most products' warehouse receipts decreased on May 13, 2025, except for coking coal, coke, silicon iron, and silicon manganese which increased [6] - Coal and coke spot price data shows that most prices remained stable on May 13, 2025, with some having weekly declines [6][9] Group 6: Graphical Analysis - There are multiple graphs including coking coal and coke spot price trends, spread seasonality, basis seasonality, warehouse receipt inventory seasonality, price difference between domestic and foreign coking coal, profit seasonality, and ratio seasonality [10][11][12][13][14][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][31][33][35][39]