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关税驱动的通胀上升
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成交平稳,银行板块再度活跃
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-22 08:35
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Fed's decision to maintain interest rates unchanged implies that the timing of a monetary policy shift may not come soon, and US stocks fluctuated this week. Domestically, financial regulatory authorities have introduced a "high - level opening - up" policy package to attract foreign capital. Short - term market risk appetite is limited by the Middle East situation, and the stock index lacks strong breakthrough momentum. It is recommended to use the 07 contracts of IC and IM for hedging in the small - and medium - cap sectors [3] Summary by Directory Stock Market Data - **Domestic Main Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3359.9, down 0.51%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10005.03, down 1.16%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2009.89, down 1.66%; the CSI 300 Index was flat at 3846.64, down 0.45%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2673.72, down 0.10%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 5639.51, down 1.75%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 5999.59, down 1.74%; the Small and Medium - cap Composite Index closed at 11347.75, down 1.17%; the STAR 50 Index closed at 957.87, down 1.55%; the China Securities 2000 Index closed at 7841.57, down 1.84% [7] - **Global Main Stock Indexes**: The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.02% to 42206.82; the S&P 500 Index fell 0.15% to 5967.84; the Nasdaq rose 0.21% to 19447.41; the Hang Seng Index fell 1.52% to 23530.48; the STOXX 50 Index fell 1.03% to 5235.95; the FTSE 100 Index fell 0.86% to 8774.65; the German DAX Index fell 0.70% to 23350.55; the French CAC40 Index fell 1.24% to 7589.66; the Brazilian IBOVESPA Index fell 0.07% to 137115.83; the Russian RTS Index rose 0.66% to 1103.97; the Nikkei 225 Index rose 1.50% to 38403.23; the South Korean Composite Index rose 4.40% to 3021.84; the Indian Sensex30 Index rose 1.59% to 82408.17 [8][9] Futures Market Data - **Futures Contracts Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of IF was 93277 (previous 71697), and the open interest was 213382 (previous 247043); the trading volume of IH was 54538 (previous 41698), and the open interest was 72451 (previous 80984); the trading volume of IC was 95848 (previous 72439), and the open interest was 208030 (previous 197818); the trading volume of IM was 211961 (previous 172444), and the open interest was 307602 (previous 302180) [11][12] - **Futures Basis**: For IF, the basis of the current - month contract was 2.56 (previous - 18.57), the next - month contract was - 42.24 (previous - 54.37), the current - quarter contract was - 73.04 (previous - 107.37), and the next - quarter contract was - 101.44 (previous - 132.77); for IH, the basis of the current - month contract was 1.48 (previous - 5.96), the next - month contract was - 36.92 (previous - 23.96), the current - quarter contract was - 38.32 (previous - 55.16), and the next - quarter contract was - 40.32 (previous - 57.36); for IC, the basis of the current - month contract was 8.29 (previous - 41.62), the next - month contract was - 51.11 (previous - 134.82), the current - quarter contract was - 155.51 (previous - 266.22), and the next - quarter contract was - 269.51 (previous - 358.82); for IM, the basis of the current - month contract was 15.41 (previous - 44.72), the next - month contract was - 64.79 (previous - 148.72), the current - quarter contract was - 211.79 (previous - 322.52), and the next - quarter contract was - 380.19 (previous - 449.52) [32] - **Futures Inter - delivery Spread**: For the next - month minus the current - month spread, IF was - 44.80 (previous - 35.80), IH was - 38.40 (previous - 18.00), IC was - 59.40 (previous - 93.20), and IM was - 80.20 (previous - 104.00); for the next - quarter minus the current - month spread, IF was - 75.60 (previous - 88.80), IH was - 39.80 (previous - 49.20), IC was - 163.80 (previous - 224.60), and IM was - 227.20 (previous - 277.80); for the next - quarter minus the next - month spread, IF was - 30.80 (previous - 53.00), IH was - 1.40 (previous - 31.20), IC was - 104.40 (previous - 131.40), and IM was - 147.00 (previous - 173.80) [38]
鲍威尔:预计未来几个月将出现关税驱动的通胀上升
news flash· 2025-06-18 19:16
Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell anticipates an increase in inflation driven by tariffs in the coming months as the impact of tariffs on U.S. consumers becomes more pronounced [1] Group 1: Inflation and Tariffs - Powell indicated that the effects of tariffs on the supply chain take time to manifest, with many retailers currently selling goods imported before the tariffs were enacted [1] - The expectation is that inflation related to goods prices will rise during the summer due to these tariffs [1] - Specific categories of goods, such as personal computers and audiovisual equipment, have already shown price increases attributed to the tariff hikes [1]