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研报 | DRAM供应吃紧推高DDR5合约价,2026年获利有望超越HBM3e
TrendForce集邦· 2025-10-29 09:32
Core Insights - The article discusses the anticipated increase in Server DRAM contract prices in Q4 2025, driven by the expansion of data centers by global cloud service providers (CSPs) [2][3] - TrendForce has revised its price forecast for Conventional DRAM from an initial increase of 8-13% to a new range of 18-23% [2][3] Price Forecasts - The revised price increase for Conventional DRAM is now projected at 18-23%, while HBM Blended is expected to rise by 23-28% [3] - The original forecast for Conventional DRAM was an increase of 8-13%, and for HBM Blended, it was 13-18% [3] Market Outlook for 2026 - Server shipment volume is expected to grow by approximately 4% in 2026, with CSPs adopting high-performance computing architectures, leading to increased DRAM capacity per server [5] - The strong demand for servers is anticipated to keep DDR5 contract prices on an upward trend throughout 2026, particularly in the first half of the year [5] Competitive Landscape - As of Q2 2025, there was a significant price gap of over four times between HBM3e and DDR5, with HBM3e providing better profitability for suppliers [6] - However, as DDR5 prices continue to rise, the price gap is expected to narrow significantly by 2026, with DDR5 profitability surpassing that of HBM3e starting in Q1 2026 [6] - Suppliers may increase the supply of Server DDR5 to solidify their profit base, while also potentially raising average selling prices (ASP) to balance product profitability [6]
研报 | 4Q25 DRAM价格延续涨势,服务器需求提前发酵、旧制程产品涨幅仍较大
TrendForce集邦· 2025-09-24 04:08
Core Insights - The article discusses the current trends in the DRAM market, highlighting the price increases for various types of DRAM due to supply constraints and shifting demand towards high-end applications [2][4][6]. DRAM Price Trends - Overall Conventional DRAM prices are expected to increase by 8-13% in Q4 2025, while HBM blended prices are projected to rise by 13-18% [2][3]. - The demand for Server DRAM is anticipated to grow significantly in 2026, with major US CSPs planning to start procurement earlier to secure supply [4][5]. Segment Analysis - **PC DRAM**: Prices are expected to rise slightly due to limited supply as manufacturers shift capacity to Server DRAM. However, overall PC DRAM procurement is projected to decrease due to reduced OEM shipments [4][5]. - **Mobile DRAM**: LPDDR4X prices are forecasted to increase by over 10% in Q4 2025 due to supply constraints, while LPDDR5X is also expected to maintain an upward price trend [6]. - **Graphics DRAM**: GDDR7 prices are set to rise significantly due to strong demand from the market, particularly for NVIDIA's RTX6000 series, while GDDR6 prices will also increase but at a slower rate [6]. - **Consumer DRAM**: Supply remains limited, and while prices are expected to rise, the demand from buyers has slowed down after significant price increases in the previous quarter [7].