一场全球范围内已打响的存储资源战，正在为中国企业撕开一条万亿通道。 全球人工智能（AI）产业的高速发展吸引了大量顶级资源聚集。近期，因存储产能纷纷涌向AI服务器所需高带宽记忆体（HBM）的供应，多 行业因资源倾斜而出现巨大缺口。 图片来源：视觉中国 手机、电脑、汽车等产品所需的存储产品，因产能不足而价格飙升。这场存储危机让相关公司面临断供和成本压力的同时，也为正在赶超先进 技术的中国存储芯片企业提供了结构性机遇。 今年1月，三星电子联席首席执行官卢泰文表示，全球内存芯片短缺程度前所未有，没有任何行业能独善其身。 电子产品首当其冲，巨头也无法幸免。1月27日，据韩国媒体报道，三星电子在与苹果的谈判中提出，一季度LPDDR（移动设备专用低功耗内 存）芯片价格上涨超80%，而SK海力士的涨幅约为100%。且该谈判仅针对上半年，考虑到内存危机程度，下半年价格可能会进一步上涨。作 为销量以亿计的全球智能手机制造商，苹果的强势议价权不再，不得已接受了大幅涨价。 这场短缺同样发生在NAND（用于长期存储数据的芯片）上，中国企业同样正在补上这一缺口。据Counterpoint数据，长江存储在全球NAND 出货量中所占份额在2 ...

科创芯片设计ETF天弘（589070）紧密跟踪上证科创板芯片设计主题指数，指数聚焦半导体中游设计环 节，含量接近95%！相较于同类科创芯片指数更加"纯粹"，行业集中度极高！ 盘面上，两市低开低走，芯片设计概念下跌。相关ETF方面，科创芯片设计ETF天弘（589070）标的指 数盘中跌3.82%，成交额达8326.09万元。成分股中，聚辰股份、中微半导、普冉股份、联芸科技、佰维 存储跌超5%，成都华微、芯原股份、恒玄科技等多股跟跌。 华创证券指出，市场正投入海量资源推进NAND芯片与控制器设计的技术革新。推理需求带动数据中心 存储芯片激增，相关设计研发已进入与客户深度探讨阶段，未来将持续发展。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 消息面上，据中国基金报报道，行业正迎来库存周期反转与AI创新周期深化的双重驱动。① 据科创板 日报等多家媒体消息，芯片设计环节涨价预期明确，联发科已表态将适度调价，亚德诺自2月1日起全线 涨价10%-15%。② 同时，存储芯片"超级周期"持续，Counterpoint Research预测一季度价格还将上涨 40%-50%。③ 政策面上，广州开发区等地出台专项补贴措施，财政部等部委的税收支持政 ...

证券研究报告 行业点评报告 / 2026.01.28 先进封装涨价与扩产共振，强周期与成长共舞 -13% 3% 19% 35% 51% 67% 电子 沪深300 分析师 唐佳 SAC 证书编号：S0160525110002 tangjia@ctsec.com ❖ 风险提示：下游需求波动风险；行业竞争加剧风险；供应链与国产化风险。 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 投资评级:看好(维持) 电子 最近 12 月市场表现 分析师 詹小瑁 SAC 证书编号：S0160525120008 zhanxm@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《AI Agent 沙箱化有望带来 CPU 新增 量空间》 2026-01-25 2. 《台积电 Capex 与业绩双超预期，先进 制程/封装加速增长 》 2026-01-20 3. 《【财通电子&新科技】行业点评报告： AI 需求与 Capex 共振，国产先进封装迎强 周期》 2026-01-17 核心观点 ❖ 国科微、中微半导体接连发布涨价通知，涨价原因明确包含封测费用等成本的持 续上涨，封测厂商已开启涨价浪潮。据半导体产业纵横，行业龙头日月光的封 测报价涨幅将从原预期的 5%-10%上 ...

SK海力士还披露计划在下月注销约价值12.24万亿韩元(约合86亿美元)的库存股，作为提高股东回报的 更广泛努力的一部分。该公司重申正在考虑在美国上市，但尚未就此做出决定。该公司将于周四举行财 报电话会议。另一家存储巨头三星也将于周四公布完整的2025年第四季度业绩。 智通财经APP获悉，得益于人工智能(AI)领域持续强劲的需求同时推高了先进和传统存储芯片的价格， 韩国存储芯片巨头SK海力士公布了创纪录的季度营收和利润。数据显示，SK海力士2025年第四季度营 收同比增长66%至32.827万亿韩元，好于分析师共识预期的32.132万亿韩元;营业利润同比激增137%，至 创纪录的19.2万亿韩元，且超过分析师共识预期的17.7万亿韩元。 SK海力士在英伟达(NVDA.US)等公司设计的AI芯片组所需的高带宽内存(HBM)领域成功建立了令人羡 慕的领先优势，占据了HBM市场61%的份额。SK海力士表示："HBM营收同比增长逾一倍，为公司在 去年的创纪录业绩做出了重大贡献。" 此外，存储芯片行业产能向高端存储产品倾斜(如HBM)挤压了传统存储产品的产能，供应短缺推高了服 务器、个人电脑和移动设备中使用的通用DRA ...

27日，沪指窄幅震荡，创业板指、科创50指数等走高；全A成交额缩至3万亿元下方；港股强势上扬， 恒生指数涨超1%。 具体来看，沪指早盘一度下探，随后小幅震荡上扬；科创50指数较为强势。截至收盘，沪指涨0.18%报 4139.9点，深证成指微涨0.09%，创业板指涨0.71%，科创50指数涨1.51%，沪深北三市合计成交约2.92 万亿元，较此前一日缩量近3600亿元。 A股市场超3400股飘绿，煤炭、酿酒、石油、医药等板块走低；半导体板块大幅走高，盛科通信 （688702）、东芯股份（688110）20%涨停，均创新高；普冉股份涨近15%，盘中亦创出新高；新型电 池概念拉升，帝科股份涨超10%，金辰股份、宇晶股份等涨停；部分黄金概念股延续强势，白银有色斩 获6连板，中国黄金、四川黄金等3连板；CPO概念活跃，源杰科技涨超11%突破800元大关，续创历史 新高；天孚通信涨超7%。值得注意的是，紫金矿业盘中再度飙升，一度大涨8%续创历史新高，收盘涨 2.8%，全日成交299.1亿元，位居A股成交额首位。 港股方面，中国人寿涨近6%，友邦保险涨逾4%，紫金黄金国际涨逾11%，紫金矿业涨近3%，创历史新 高。 半导体 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a rebound with all three major indices rising, driven by strength in the semiconductor industry and precious metals [1] - Notable stocks included Dongxin Co. and Kangqiang Electronics, both hitting the daily limit, while Huahong Company rose over 7% to reach a new high [1] - The trading volume for the day was 2.92 trillion [1] Key Highlights Domestic Chips - The domestic chip sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Electric Science Chip, Dongxin Co., and Yaxiang Integration hitting the daily limit [4] - Microsoft announced the launch of its next-generation AI chip, Maia200, which reportedly improves performance by 30% per dollar compared to the latest hardware [4] - Samsung proposed a price increase of over 80% for LPDDR chips in Q1, with SK Hynix's increase around 100%, impacting Apple's supply chain [4] Semiconductor Pricing Trends - According to招商证券, the supply-demand gap is driving storage product prices up, with DRAM contract prices expected to increase by 55-60% and Server DRAM prices by over 60% in Q1 2026 [6] - The forecast for NAND Flash products indicates a price increase of 33-38% [6] - The localization rate of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in China is currently low, with projections to reach 30% by 2026 [6] Optical Communication - The optical communication sector rebounded, with stocks like Zhongci Electronics and Kecuan Technology hitting the daily limit [7] - Demand for optical modules remains strong, driven by increased capital expenditures from major North American cloud providers, with a projected total exceeding $380 billion for 2025 [9] Photovoltaic Sector - The photovoltaic sector strengthened in the afternoon, with companies like Saiwu Technology and Zhengtai Power seeing significant gains [10] - Elon Musk announced plans to achieve 200 GW of solar manufacturing capacity in the U.S. within three years, indicating a strong future demand for solar technology [12] Stock Performance - Key stocks in the semiconductor and optical communication sectors showed substantial gains, with Dongxin Co. and Shengke Communication both rising by 20% [18] - The overall market sentiment reflects a positive outlook for sectors related to AI, storage, and renewable energy technologies [18]

Core Insights - SanDisk has transformed from a struggling legacy storage card company to the best-performing stock in the S&P 500, achieving nearly 1000% returns in just five months due to an unexpected market surge driven by AI applications [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The surge in demand for AI applications has shifted the focus to storage chips, leading to a significant increase in memory chip prices since September, with NAND flash prices rising over 300% and DRAM costs increasing by approximately 280% [4][5]. - The unexpected demand for "context" storage has created a new technology bottleneck, as highlighted by industry leaders, emphasizing that without storage, AI cannot function effectively [5]. Group 2: Financial Performance - SanDisk's stock price has skyrocketed, reaching an all-time high, with a market capitalization increase of over $50 billion since last year [4]. - Analysts predict that SanDisk's adjusted earnings per share will grow by over 170% year-on-year, with sales expected to surge by about 40% [9]. Group 3: Competitive Advantage - SanDisk benefits from operational leverage, allowing it to convert additional sales from price increases into profits without incurring extra costs for hiring or equipment [7]. - The company's long-standing joint venture with Kioxia provides a cost advantage, enabling it to acquire core NAND chips at lower prices than competitors [7]. Group 4: Investment Sentiment - Elliott Management, which pushed for SanDisk's spin-off, missed out on significant gains as it sold its shares before the recent price surge, highlighting the unpredictable nature of market movements [8]. - Bernstein Research has identified SanDisk as a top pick for 2026, citing unprecedented NAND shortages and price increases, with strong demand expected to persist for at least six quarters [9].

三星、SK海力士将既有产能全力冲刺生产高端DRAM及高频宽存储（HBM），大举排挤NAND Flash产 出，两大厂今年同步大砍NAND芯片产量，三星全年产量甚至比先前景气低迷时还少，将使得全球 NAND芯片市场持续供不应求，价格再度狂飙。 中国台湾供应链方面，群联认为，云端服务业者对企业级SSD与储存容量需求呈现结构性增长，目前市 场供给仍偏紧，缺口约在一成以上，短期内难以缓解，尤其主要NAND芯片厂过去几年对扩产态度保 守，即使启动新投资，新增产能最快也要到2027年后才可能逐步开出。 点序方面，该公司深耕NAND控制芯片，同样搭上价格上扬走势，挹注运营动能。 市场估算，全球NAND芯片供给结构性缺口将因此扩大约3%至4%，时值NAND芯片严重供不应求、价 格狂涨，两大厂产出不增反减，将使得供给更吃紧，价格涨势延续，台湾NAND芯片应用双巨头群联 （8299）、点序（6485）将成两大赢家，模组厂威刚、创见、十铨等也沾光。 韩媒Chosun Biz引述市场研究公司Omdia的数据报道，三星、SK海力士冲刺高端DRAM与HBM，持续降 低NAND芯片产出，其中，三星今年NAND芯片产量将由去年的490万片降 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the storage industry, with expectations of price increases and demand recovery in the second quarter of 2025, suggesting a favorable investment environment [8][23][39]. Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI in China rose to 50.5% in March, indicating a continuous recovery in the manufacturing sector, while the U.S. PMI remained below the expansion threshold at 49% [7][11]. - The storage chip market is experiencing price increases, with DDR5 chip prices rising for the first time in seven months, and NAND manufacturers like Micron and Sandisk issuing price increase notices due to anticipated supply shortages in the second quarter [8][22][25]. - The domestic storage market is currently active, with prices for flash memory, SSDs, and memory modules increasing across the board, driven by demand from AI applications [8][46][47]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Trends - China's manufacturing PMI increased by 0.3% to 50.5%, indicating ongoing recovery in manufacturing activities [7][11]. - The electronic information manufacturing sector saw production growth of 10.6% and export growth of 5.9% in January-February, despite a slight decline in profit margins [14][16]. Upstream Market - Research indicates that DDR5 chip prices have stopped falling and are beginning to rise, with expectations of increased demand from cloud service providers and server manufacturers [22][23]. - Major NAND manufacturers are also raising prices due to inventory depletion and anticipated demand recovery [25][39]. Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEM) Dynamics - Micron reported strong demand for HBM and data center products, with full capacity sold out for 2025 [28][29]. - The company maintains a capital expenditure of $14 billion, reflecting confidence in long-term growth in DRAM and NAND demand [29]. Domestic Spot Market - The storage spot market is experiencing a surge in prices, with NAND and SSD prices rising due to low inventory levels and increased demand from AI applications [46][47]. - The market is expected to remain active, with SSD prices increasing significantly due to supply constraints and rising costs from manufacturers [52][53]. Application Market - Intel and AMD are launching new products that are expected to drive demand in the PC and AI sectors, with significant growth anticipated in AI PC shipments [71][82]. - The competition in the AI PC market is intensifying, with major brands like Lenovo and HP shifting production to Southeast Asia to adapt to changing market conditions [79][82].

Core Viewpoint - The surge in memory chip prices has made companies like Sandisk, Micron Technology, and Western Digital popular stocks, but it has created significant challenges for their customers, including Apple and HP, as the high costs of memory components pose investment risks that are unlikely to reverse in the short term [1] Group 1: Impact on Hardware Manufacturers - Consumer hardware manufacturers are facing pressure due to high memory component costs, leading to two choices: accept lower profit margins or raise prices, which could harm demand [1] - Apple’s stock has seen only an 8.6% increase in 2025, marking its worst performance since 2022, while HP's stock has dropped nearly one-third in 2025 and hit its lowest level since November 2020 [2] - Dell Technologies' stock has decreased by 28% since reaching a historical high in October [2] Group 2: Semiconductor Manufacturers' Risks - The rising memory prices also pose risks for semiconductor manufacturers like Qualcomm and Arm, with recent downgrades in their ratings by Mizuho Securities and Bank of America [5] - The market is expected to continue pressuring these companies as long as memory prices remain high, driven by demand from artificial intelligence [5] - Dell is viewed positively due to its server business growth, which offsets the negative impact of rising memory prices [5] Group 3: Memory Price Trends and Industry Outlook - Samsung reported a more than 30% increase in average DRAM chip prices and about a 20% increase in NAND chip prices, with expectations that this trend will continue into 2026 or longer [6] - The memory cost for consumer hardware products may account for 10% to 20% of material costs, leading to concerns about profitability for companies like Apple and HP [6] - HP's earnings forecast for 2026 has been lowered by 7.1% due to rising memory costs, while Dell's performance expectations remain relatively stable due to strong demand in its server business [7] Group 4: Long-term Industry Dynamics - Analysts suggest that the current memory chip shortage is not just a cyclical issue but may indicate a permanent strategic reconfiguration of global silicon wafer capacity [6] - The anticipated significant increase in memory component costs over the next two years could impact even large companies like Apple [7] - The cyclical nature of memory prices is acknowledged, but the current supply shortage suggests that prices are unlikely to decrease in the short term [7]