Core Viewpoint - Douyin Real Estate is shifting from the previously dominant CPS model to a new lead generation model, despite the CPS model showing significant growth in its short lifespan [1][12]. Summary by Sections CPS Model Overview - CPS (Cost Per Sale) is an online transaction model based on actual sales commissions, integrating developers, influencers, and service providers, primarily targeting the new housing market [4]. - The CPS model utilizes platform algorithms to match property content with potential buyers, facilitating transactions through a structured process, with commission rates ranging from 1% to 3% based on various factors [4][6]. Performance Metrics - In 2024, Douyin Real Estate reported a significant increase in its creator base by 33.1%, with the number of cities and service providers growing by 140% and 274%, respectively, and the number of influencers increasing by 994% [6]. - The online customer source in the real estate industry surged from 25% to 63% between 2022 and 2024, indicating a shift in buyer behavior towards online channels [6]. Market Dynamics - The CPS model addressed several industry pain points, such as prolonged buyer decision cycles and market monopolization by leading agencies, by providing a more efficient and transparent transaction process [7][8]. - Developers benefit from reduced customer acquisition costs and increased exposure through Douyin's public traffic pool, allowing for direct engagement with buyers without upfront advertising costs [8][9]. Transition to Lead Generation Model - The decision to abandon the CPS model is attributed to the evolving landscape of real estate marketing, where outdated models are being phased out in favor of content-driven approaches [12][14]. - The new lead generation model will reportedly still involve real estate agents paying for leads, resembling a traditional advertising model that has previously been deemed ineffective [14]. Implications of the Shift - The transition may lead to decreased trust among developers and buyers in the Douyin platform, as well as potential income loss for influencers who relied on the CPS model for commissions [13][14]. - The industry is observing whether Douyin's shift is an attempt to emulate competitors like Kuaishou, which previously experimented with the CPS model before reverting to a lead generation approach [13][14].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment [9][12]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as the largest player in China and the third largest globally in the building character toy market, with a strong IP matrix and a focus on high-quality, cost-effective products [8][16]. - The building character toy industry is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected CAGR of 41.3% in China from 2023 to 2028, significantly outpacing the overall toy industry growth [8][10]. - The company's revenue is expected to grow significantly, with forecasts of 39.19 billion, 54.97 billion, and 67.44 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 75%, 40%, and 23% [9][12]. Company Overview - The company, originally founded in 2014 as a children's educational technology firm, has transitioned to focus on building toys and character toys, launching its first character toy line in 2022 [16][17]. - The company has developed a robust IP portfolio with over 50 self-owned or licensed IPs, including popular franchises like Ultraman and Transformers [8][16]. Financial Analysis - The company has shown impressive revenue growth, achieving 22.41 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 155.6% [4][29]. - The adjusted net profit is projected to reach 9.95 billion CNY in 2025, with a staggering growth rate of 348% compared to the previous year [4][12]. - The gross margin has been steadily increasing, reaching 52.6% in 2024, driven by the strong performance of character toys [42][43]. Industry Insights - The global toy industry is expected to grow at a CAGR of over 5% from 2023 to 2028, with the character toy segment showing even higher growth potential [8][10]. - The competitive landscape is concentrated, with the company holding a 30.3% market share in China, leading over competitors like Bandai and LEGO [8][10]. Competitive Advantages - The company has established a comprehensive system that integrates product design, research, and production, allowing for efficient and high-quality product offerings [10][11]. - The marketing strategy focuses on content-driven engagement, leveraging social media and influencer partnerships to enhance brand visibility and consumer interaction [3][10].