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建材周专题:关注稳地产政策预期
Changjiang Securities· 2025-04-22 02:12
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [12]. Core Insights - The report highlights a narrowing decline in real estate data from the National Bureau of Statistics, emphasizing the importance of stable real estate policy expectations [5][21]. - Cement prices have slightly decreased, while glass inventory remains stable month-on-month [7][24]. - There is a focus on infrastructure and existing stock chains under the expectation of increased domestic demand, with investment opportunities in Africa being highlighted [9]. Summary by Sections Basic Situation - In March, the year-on-year decline in national commodity housing sales was 2.1% in terms of value and 3.0% in terms of area, with a smaller decline of 1.6% in value and 0.9% in area for March alone [5][6]. - The price index for new and second-hand homes in 70 cities fell by 0.1% and 0.2% respectively in March, with first-tier cities showing slight increases [5][6]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a 24.4% year-on-year decline in new construction area, which narrowed to an 18.1% decline in March [6]. Cement Market - The national cement market price decreased, with a current average of 397.74 yuan/ton, down 3.55 yuan/ton month-on-month but up 35.65 yuan/ton year-on-year [25]. - The cement output rate in key regions was 48.5%, showing a slight month-on-month increase but a year-on-year decrease of about 2.0% [7][24]. - Cement production in the first quarter of 2025 saw a year-on-year decline of 1.4%, with a 2.5% increase in March [6]. Glass Market - The average price of glass was 74.99 yuan per weight box, with a slight month-on-month increase of 0.28 yuan [45]. - The total inventory of glass in monitored provinces was 5,624 million weight boxes, showing a slight increase from the previous week [44][45]. - The production capacity of float glass increased slightly, with 286 production lines and a daily melting capacity of 158,505 tons [44]. Investment Opportunities - The report recommends companies such as Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and China Liansu in the infrastructure chain, highlighting the potential for improved net profit due to lower coal costs [9]. - In the existing stock demand, companies like Sanke Tree and Beixin Building Materials are favored for their growth potential and low valuations [9]. - The report also points to investment opportunities in Africa, particularly in Keda Manufacturing, which has shown strong performance in overseas markets [9].
建材周专题2025W14:关税事件至今,关注内需方向与超跌修复标的
Changjiang Securities· 2025-04-16 09:54
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the impact of the US tariff increase on the building materials sector, suggesting a focus on domestic demand and potential recovery of oversold stocks [5][6] - Cement shipments are showing continuous recovery, while glass inventory continues to decline, indicating a positive trend in the market [6][7] - The report highlights the importance of infrastructure chains under the expectation of increased domestic demand, recommending companies like China Liansu, Huaxin Cement, and Anhui Conch Cement [5][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Basic Situation - Cement: After the Qingming Festival, the national cement enterprise shipment rate is approximately 48%, a 1 percentage point increase month-on-month but a 3 percentage point decrease year-on-year. The national cement price has decreased by 0.2% month-on-month [6][25] - Glass: The price of float glass has seen slight increases, with overall inventory continuing to decline. The production capacity remains stable, and the supply-demand structure is near balance [7][37] Infrastructure and Stock Chains - The report stresses the need to focus on infrastructure chains due to trade friction, recommending companies with strong fundamentals such as Huaxin Cement and Anhui Conch Cement. The demand for building materials is expected to improve in 2025, particularly in the second-hand housing market [5][8] Fiberglass and Wind Power Chains - The fiberglass sector is benefiting from the demand for wind power and thermoplastics, with significant profit growth expected in the first quarter. Companies like China Jushi and Zhongcai Technology are highlighted as key players [8][45]