周度报告-国债期货 政策预期或升温，长债震荡转弱 [Table_Rank] 走势评级： 国债：震荡 报告日期： 2025 年 11 月 23 日 [Table_Summary] ★一周复盘：国债期货窄幅震荡 重要事项： 未获得东证期货书面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。本报告的信息均来源于 公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文 中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息或意见并不构成交易建议，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 有关分析师承诺，见本报告最后部分。并请阅读报告最后一页的免责声明。 国 债 期 货 本周（11.17-11.23）国债期货窄幅震荡。周一，美国降息预期下 降且市场较为担忧 AI 泡沫，海外权益市场走弱，另外周末地缘 风险发酵，国内权益市场调整，债券市场走强。周二，受海外 流动性偏紧，地缘风险发酵影响，权益市场继续走弱，国债小 幅上涨。周三，市场消息面平静，资金面转松，但股市震荡上 涨，国债下跌。周四，受英伟达财报超预期影响，股市高开， 但随即走弱，国债期货 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Kaiyuan Securities indicates that Dongfang Yuhong's net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 is 560 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 40.2% [1] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 370 million yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 93.4% [1] - For H1 2025, revenue from various product segments is as follows: waterproof membranes 5.51 billion yuan (down 8.8%), coatings 3.95 billion yuan (down 17.1%), mortar powder 2.00 billion yuan (down 6.2%), and engineering construction 850 million yuan (down 32.3%) [1] Geographic Revenue Breakdown - In H1 2025, domestic revenue was 12.99 billion yuan (down 12.3%), while overseas revenue reached 580 million yuan (up 42.1%) [1] Project Developments - The construction of the Houston production, research, and logistics base is ongoing, and the Tian Ding Feng Middle East production base project has officially commenced and is progressing rapidly [1] - The Tian Ding Feng Canada production, research, and logistics base has officially started construction, and the Malaysia production and research logistics base has successfully completed its first trial production [1] Financial Health - The company's asset-liability ratio stands at 47.55%, indicating a long-term low level, which highlights its long-term investment value [1] Market Outlook - With supportive real estate policies expected to stabilize the real estate sector, the company continues to expand its overseas presence and maintains a "buy" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's H1 2025 performance shows significant growth, with revenue reaching 5.816 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.97%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 436 million yuan, up 107.53% year-on-year [4] - The report highlights the positive impact of relaxed real estate policies and improved cash flow, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [4][5] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.04 billion, 1.35 billion, and 1.77 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 213.5%, 29.8%, and 31.2% [4] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 32.35%, an increase of 3.71 percentage points year-on-year, driven by competitive advantages and a decrease in raw material prices [6] - The company’s revenue from home decoration wall paint, engineering wall paint, substrates and auxiliary materials, and waterproof membranes for H1 2025 were 1.574 billion, 1.795 billion, 1.733 billion, and 460 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +8.43%, -2.26%, +10.4%, and -28.62% [5] - The average selling price of home decoration wall paint increased by 2.78% year-on-year, contributing positively to the gross margin [5] Valuation Metrics - The company’s projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.41, 1.83, and 2.40 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 34.5, 26.6, and 20.3 [7] - The projected return on equity (ROE) for 2025 is 28.1%, indicating strong profitability [7] - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 35.932 billion yuan, with a current share price of 48.70 yuan [1]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish stance at the Jackson Hole central bank conference strengthens expectations for a rate cut in September, leading to a significant pullback in the US dollar index [1][2] - Powell highlighted a "peculiar balance" in the labor market due to a substantial slowdown in both supply and demand, indicating increased downside risks for employment [2] - The revised monetary policy framework emphasizes a balanced approach to managing employment and inflation targets, with long-term inflation rates primarily determined by monetary policy [2] Group 2: Copper Market Analysis - Downstream consumption improvement has led to a decrease in social copper inventory, which fell by 0.87 million tons to 123,000 tons as of August 25, compared to the previous week [3] - The current copper price is reported at 79,270 to 79,520 yuan/ton, with a slight decrease in the average premium to the current month contract [3][5] - Despite the decrease in inventory, rising copper prices are suppressing downstream consumption, increasing the pressure for inventory accumulation [1][3] Group 3: Aluminum Market Analysis - Aluminum ingot inventory increased significantly, with a total of 616,000 tons reported as of August 25, reflecting a rise of 20,000 tons from the previous week [4][6] - The current price of aluminum is reported at 20,780 yuan/ton, with a slight increase from the previous trading day [4][6] - Overall, the aluminum market remains in a seasonal lull, with supply changes being minimal and downstream consumption still weak [1][4] Group 4: Domestic Real Estate Policy - Shanghai has announced significant real estate policy changes, including easing restrictions on home purchases and optimizing housing fund policies, aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [2] - These policies are set to take effect on August 26, 2025, and are expected to boost market confidence [2]

Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.46% at 119.970 yuan, the 10-year main contract down 0.05% at 108.760 yuan, the 5-year main contract down 0.05% at 105.955 yuan, and the 2-year main contract down 0.01% at 102.420 yuan [1] - As of 17:00, the yield on the 30-year government bond "25 Super Long Special Government Bond 02" rose by 1.4 basis points to 1.887%, the yield on the 10-year government development bond "25 National Development 10" rose by 1.05 basis points to 1.7525%, and the yield on the 10-year government bond "25 Coupon Government Bond 11" rose by 0.95 basis points to 1.6735% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 170.7 billion yuan at a fixed rate, with a bidding amount of 170.7 billion yuan and a successful bid amount of 170.7 billion yuan [2] - On the same day, 226.2 billion yuan in reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 55.5 billion yuan [2] - The overnight repurchase weighted rate (DR001) fell by nearly 10 basis points to around 1.35%, indicating a gradual return to a balanced but slightly loose liquidity environment post-tax period [2] News Developments - On July 19, the groundbreaking ceremony for the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project was held in Linzhi City, Tibet, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan for the construction of five tiered power stations [3] - The project primarily focuses on power transmission and consumption outside Tibet while also addressing local demand [3] - The stock market opened high and continued to trend upward, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.72%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.86%, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.87% [3] - A total trading volume of 1.73 trillion yuan was recorded, up from 1.59 trillion yuan the previous day, with 4,000 stocks gaining and the number of stocks hitting the daily limit reaching a two-month high [3] Operational Suggestions - Recent policies against excessive competition and the commencement of large infrastructure projects have boosted the commodity and equity markets, leading to a recovery in risk appetite that may suppress the bond market [4] - Current fundamental data shows a supply-demand divergence, with production continuing to rise, positively impacting quarterly GDP performance, but nominal growth is hindered by low inflation, affecting corporate profits and real economic sentiment [4] - The period of July to August may see a new round of stable real estate policies, government investment expansion, and tariff negotiations, indicating a complex macroeconomic outlook [4] - The bond market is expected to remain in a range-bound phase due to the lack of a clear main trend, with the T2509 contract focusing on support around 108.6 [4] - A cautious approach is recommended in the short term, monitoring funding conditions and incremental policy developments, while considering a potential shift towards a looser funding environment [4]

Core Insights - The stock index futures closed higher across the board, indicating positive market sentiment and expectations for future policy support [1] - Economic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows a significant increase in retail sales, suggesting strong consumer market potential [2] - The bond market is primarily supported by favorable fundamentals, while the stock market is driven by policy expectations [4] Group 1: Stock Market Insights - Stock index futures for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 100 rose by 0.38%, 0.48%, 0.46%, and 0.72% respectively, reflecting a bullish sentiment in the equity market [1] - Analysts expect a new round of upward momentum in stock indices as the policy release window approaches [2] - The upcoming Lujiazui Forum is anticipated to announce significant financial policies, which could further influence market dynamics [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, growing by 6.1% year-on-year, surpassing both the previous value of 5.1% and the forecast of 4.9% [2] - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, which is crucial for improving residents' asset balance sheets and boosting domestic demand [2] Group 3: Bond Market Insights - The bond market's reaction to economic data has been relatively muted, indicating that the market had anticipated these figures [3] - The People's Bank of China conducted significant reverse repurchase operations to stabilize market liquidity amid concerns over tightening [3] - The bond market is expected to experience an upward trend post mid-month tax period, with government bonds likely to test previous highs [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [12]. Core Insights - The report highlights a narrowing decline in real estate data from the National Bureau of Statistics, emphasizing the importance of stable real estate policy expectations [5][21]. - Cement prices have slightly decreased, while glass inventory remains stable month-on-month [7][24]. - There is a focus on infrastructure and existing stock chains under the expectation of increased domestic demand, with investment opportunities in Africa being highlighted [9]. Summary by Sections Basic Situation - In March, the year-on-year decline in national commodity housing sales was 2.1% in terms of value and 3.0% in terms of area, with a smaller decline of 1.6% in value and 0.9% in area for March alone [5][6]. - The price index for new and second-hand homes in 70 cities fell by 0.1% and 0.2% respectively in March, with first-tier cities showing slight increases [5][6]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a 24.4% year-on-year decline in new construction area, which narrowed to an 18.1% decline in March [6]. Cement Market - The national cement market price decreased, with a current average of 397.74 yuan/ton, down 3.55 yuan/ton month-on-month but up 35.65 yuan/ton year-on-year [25]. - The cement output rate in key regions was 48.5%, showing a slight month-on-month increase but a year-on-year decrease of about 2.0% [7][24]. - Cement production in the first quarter of 2025 saw a year-on-year decline of 1.4%, with a 2.5% increase in March [6]. Glass Market - The average price of glass was 74.99 yuan per weight box, with a slight month-on-month increase of 0.28 yuan [45]. - The total inventory of glass in monitored provinces was 5,624 million weight boxes, showing a slight increase from the previous week [44][45]. - The production capacity of float glass increased slightly, with 286 production lines and a daily melting capacity of 158,505 tons [44]. Investment Opportunities - The report recommends companies such as Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and China Liansu in the infrastructure chain, highlighting the potential for improved net profit due to lower coal costs [9]. - In the existing stock demand, companies like Sanke Tree and Beixin Building Materials are favored for their growth potential and low valuations [9]. - The report also points to investment opportunities in Africa, particularly in Keda Manufacturing, which has shown strong performance in overseas markets [9].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in first-tier and core second-tier cities has shown significant recovery due to a series of policy supports [1][7]. Market Performance - In March, first-tier cities experienced substantial year-on-year growth in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with Beijing's new housing transaction area increasing by 46% and Shenzhen's second-hand housing transactions rising by 58% [2][3]. - Second-tier cities like Ningbo, Hefei, Suzhou, Hangzhou, and Chengdu also saw notable increases, with Ningbo's new housing transactions up by 79% and Hangzhou's second-hand transactions up by 68% [2][3]. Land Market Dynamics - The land market in core cities has been active, with a 26.5% year-on-year increase in land transfer revenue across 300 cities and an average premium rate of 13.6% [5]. - Specific cities like Hangzhou, Shanghai, and Chengdu recorded average premium rates of 43.2%, 29.0%, and 28.3% respectively, with record land prices set in March [5][6]. Future Policy Outlook - The second quarter is expected to see the acceleration of policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, with a focus on expanding domestic demand as a priority [8]. - Analysts suggest that housing consumption is crucial for economic stability, and further supportive measures may include easing purchase restrictions in core cities and lowering mortgage rates [8].