建筑材料/装修建材 三棵树（603737.SH） 2025 年 08 月 28 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/8/28 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 48.70 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 55.38/26.30 | | 总市值(亿元) | 359.32 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 359.32 | | 总股本(亿股) | 7.38 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 7.38 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 40.13 | 8 月 25 日上海市住房城乡建设管理委员会等部门联合印发《关于优化调整本市房地 产政策措施的通知》，进一步放宽楼市限购政策。此外，三棵树发布 2025 年中报， 2025H1 公司实现营收 58.16 亿元，同比+0.97%；归母净利润 4.36 亿元，同比 +107.53%；扣非归母净利润 2.92 亿元，同比+268.48%。2025Q2 单季度营收 36.86 亿元，环比+73%；归母净利润 3.31 亿元，环比+214.49%；扣非归母净利润 3.07 亿 元，环比增加 3.22 亿元。考虑原材料价格下行，我们上调 2025 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：英大期货） 摘要： 美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会的讲话态度转鸽，强化了9月降息预期，上周五美指短线大幅 回撤，铜铝价格走高。8月非农就业数据或将对后续降息路径提供更多数据支撑。国内方面，近期稳地 产政策不断释放，上海发布楼市重磅政策，提振市场信心。铜方面，供应增量有限，消费边际改善，助 力电解铜去库，但铜价走高抑制下游消费，增加累库压力。铝方面，供应端变化不大，消费端虽然小幅 回暖，但整体仍处于淡季氛围，铝价反弹抑制下游消费，电解铝仍有累库压力。 今日沪铜大幅冲高，沪铝夜盘走高后，日内维持窄幅震荡。截至8月25日收盘，沪铜主力CU2510合约收 报79690元/吨，涨1040元/吨，涨幅1.32%。沪铝主力AL2510合约收报20770元/吨，涨140元/吨，涨幅 0.68%。 宏观消息面，美东时间8月22日美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上发表重磅讲话。鲍威尔的发 言分为两个部分，第一部分是经济回顾与展望，第二部分是对联储货币政策框架的修改。据华尔街见闻 讯，鲍威尔说，劳动力市场指标稳定使联储能谨慎考虑政策调整，基准前景和风险平衡变化可能需要联 储调整政策立场；劳动力市场 ...

Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.46% at 119.970 yuan, the 10-year main contract down 0.05% at 108.760 yuan, the 5-year main contract down 0.05% at 105.955 yuan, and the 2-year main contract down 0.01% at 102.420 yuan [1] - As of 17:00, the yield on the 30-year government bond "25 Super Long Special Government Bond 02" rose by 1.4 basis points to 1.887%, the yield on the 10-year government development bond "25 National Development 10" rose by 1.05 basis points to 1.7525%, and the yield on the 10-year government bond "25 Coupon Government Bond 11" rose by 0.95 basis points to 1.6735% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 170.7 billion yuan at a fixed rate, with a bidding amount of 170.7 billion yuan and a successful bid amount of 170.7 billion yuan [2] - On the same day, 226.2 billion yuan in reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 55.5 billion yuan [2] - The overnight repurchase weighted rate (DR001) fell by nearly 10 basis points to around 1.35%, indicating a gradual return to a balanced but slightly loose liquidity environment post-tax period [2] News Developments - On July 19, the groundbreaking ceremony for the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project was held in Linzhi City, Tibet, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan for the construction of five tiered power stations [3] - The project primarily focuses on power transmission and consumption outside Tibet while also addressing local demand [3] - The stock market opened high and continued to trend upward, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.72%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.86%, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.87% [3] - A total trading volume of 1.73 trillion yuan was recorded, up from 1.59 trillion yuan the previous day, with 4,000 stocks gaining and the number of stocks hitting the daily limit reaching a two-month high [3] Operational Suggestions - Recent policies against excessive competition and the commencement of large infrastructure projects have boosted the commodity and equity markets, leading to a recovery in risk appetite that may suppress the bond market [4] - Current fundamental data shows a supply-demand divergence, with production continuing to rise, positively impacting quarterly GDP performance, but nominal growth is hindered by low inflation, affecting corporate profits and real economic sentiment [4] - The period of July to August may see a new round of stable real estate policies, government investment expansion, and tariff negotiations, indicating a complex macroeconomic outlook [4] - The bond market is expected to remain in a range-bound phase due to the lack of a clear main trend, with the T2509 contract focusing on support around 108.6 [4] - A cautious approach is recommended in the short term, monitoring funding conditions and incremental policy developments, while considering a potential shift towards a looser funding environment [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [12]. Core Insights - The report highlights a narrowing decline in real estate data from the National Bureau of Statistics, emphasizing the importance of stable real estate policy expectations [5][21]. - Cement prices have slightly decreased, while glass inventory remains stable month-on-month [7][24]. - There is a focus on infrastructure and existing stock chains under the expectation of increased domestic demand, with investment opportunities in Africa being highlighted [9]. Summary by Sections Basic Situation - In March, the year-on-year decline in national commodity housing sales was 2.1% in terms of value and 3.0% in terms of area, with a smaller decline of 1.6% in value and 0.9% in area for March alone [5][6]. - The price index for new and second-hand homes in 70 cities fell by 0.1% and 0.2% respectively in March, with first-tier cities showing slight increases [5][6]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a 24.4% year-on-year decline in new construction area, which narrowed to an 18.1% decline in March [6]. Cement Market - The national cement market price decreased, with a current average of 397.74 yuan/ton, down 3.55 yuan/ton month-on-month but up 35.65 yuan/ton year-on-year [25]. - The cement output rate in key regions was 48.5%, showing a slight month-on-month increase but a year-on-year decrease of about 2.0% [7][24]. - Cement production in the first quarter of 2025 saw a year-on-year decline of 1.4%, with a 2.5% increase in March [6]. Glass Market - The average price of glass was 74.99 yuan per weight box, with a slight month-on-month increase of 0.28 yuan [45]. - The total inventory of glass in monitored provinces was 5,624 million weight boxes, showing a slight increase from the previous week [44][45]. - The production capacity of float glass increased slightly, with 286 production lines and a daily melting capacity of 158,505 tons [44]. Investment Opportunities - The report recommends companies such as Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and China Liansu in the infrastructure chain, highlighting the potential for improved net profit due to lower coal costs [9]. - In the existing stock demand, companies like Sanke Tree and Beixin Building Materials are favored for their growth potential and low valuations [9]. - The report also points to investment opportunities in Africa, particularly in Keda Manufacturing, which has shown strong performance in overseas markets [9].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in first-tier and core second-tier cities has shown significant recovery due to a series of policy supports [1][7]. Market Performance - In March, first-tier cities experienced substantial year-on-year growth in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with Beijing's new housing transaction area increasing by 46% and Shenzhen's second-hand housing transactions rising by 58% [2][3]. - Second-tier cities like Ningbo, Hefei, Suzhou, Hangzhou, and Chengdu also saw notable increases, with Ningbo's new housing transactions up by 79% and Hangzhou's second-hand transactions up by 68% [2][3]. Land Market Dynamics - The land market in core cities has been active, with a 26.5% year-on-year increase in land transfer revenue across 300 cities and an average premium rate of 13.6% [5]. - Specific cities like Hangzhou, Shanghai, and Chengdu recorded average premium rates of 43.2%, 29.0%, and 28.3% respectively, with record land prices set in March [5][6]. Future Policy Outlook - The second quarter is expected to see the acceleration of policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, with a focus on expanding domestic demand as a priority [8]. - Analysts suggest that housing consumption is crucial for economic stability, and further supportive measures may include easing purchase restrictions in core cities and lowering mortgage rates [8].