新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-19 超跌修复，镍不锈钢价格低位反弹 镍品种 市场分析 2025-12-18日沪镍主力合约2601开于113600元/吨，收于113940元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化1.07%，当日成交量为 97677（-41919）手，持仓量为85352（-8713）手。沪镍的反弹是技术超跌修复与宏观流动性改善共同作用的结果， 而非基本面实质性好转。据印尼镍矿商协会（APNI）表示，政府在2026年工作计划和预算（RKAB）中提出的镍 矿石产量目标约为2.5亿吨，较2025年RKAB设定的3.79亿吨大幅下降，此消息对镍价的反弹也起到一定的推动作用。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，近期镍矿市场有成交落地，镍矿价格持稳运行。菲律宾方面，近期北部矿山Eramen1.4% 镍矿FOB40成交落地。装船出货方面，效率尚可。下游工厂生产计划未有变动，多需年前备库，对原料镍矿采购 压价心态或将放缓。印尼方面，12月(二期)内贸基准价预计走跌0.110.18美元/湿吨，内贸升水方面，当前主流升水 维持+25.升水区间多在+25-26。印尼矿山雨季到来，镍矿供应减少。但部分铁厂多有减产计划，因 ...

Market Overview - A-share market experienced a significant increase on December 8, with the Shenzhen Component Index rising over 1% and the ChiNext Index increasing over 2% [1][2] - The total market turnover reached 2.05 trillion yuan, ending a streak of 16 consecutive trading days with turnover below 2 trillion yuan [1][2] - Over 3,400 stocks in the A-share market rose, indicating a broad-based rally [1][2] Sector Performance - Key sectors that surged included optical modules, optical chips, memory, and 6G technology, while sectors like coal, phosphorus chemicals, and liquor saw adjustments [2][3] - The communication sector led the gains, with stocks such as Tianfu Communication and Guangku Technology seeing significant price increases, with Tianfu Communication rising over 19% [3][5] Fund Flow and Investor Sentiment - There was a notable increase in financing balance, with over 7 billion yuan net inflow into the main funds on December 8, and a total increase of over 70 billion yuan in financing balance over the previous week [3][4] - The overall sentiment among investors appears to be improving, with expectations for a potential spring rally starting as early as mid-December [6] Industry Insights - Among the 31 industries, 16 saw an increase in financing balance, with machinery, non-ferrous metals, and electronics leading in net buying amounts [4] - The electronic, communication, and non-ferrous metal sectors attracted the most net inflows, while defense, pharmaceuticals, and food and beverage sectors experienced net outflows [5] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current market may still be in a phase of recovery from previous declines, with the potential for a cross-year rally to develop [6] - Factors such as anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and improved domestic fundamentals are expected to support market conditions [6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows a slight increase with a "high and low" trend, driven by small and medium-sized growth stocks and the real estate sector, while large-cap stocks like banks and oil companies face pressure [4][6]. Market Performance - The three major A-share indices experienced a mild increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly retreating due to the drag from heavyweight stocks such as banks and oil [4]. - The Shenzhen Component Index outperformed, supported by active mid and small-cap growth stocks and the real estate sector [4]. Trading Volume and Market Sentiment - The total trading volume in both markets decreased by 11.9%, indicating a significant reduction in market activity and a cautious attitude among investors [7]. - There is a structural adjustment in fund flows, shifting towards undervalued sectors like military and coal, although the overall scale remains limited [7]. Fund Flow Dynamics - Institutional investors are adjusting their portfolios defensively, moving funds into sectors supported by policies and events, such as defense, culture, and computing, while selling off high-valuation growth sectors like electronics and semiconductors [9]. - Retail investors are engaging in short-term speculation, increasing positions in military and media sectors, believing in recovery opportunities due to policy catalysts [9]. Investor Sentiment - The sentiment among retail investors shows a mixed approach, with 21.36% increasing their positions and 22.62% reducing them, while 56.02% remain unchanged [15]. - A majority of retail investors (59.46%) expect the market to rise in the next trading day [18]. Positioning and Profitability - The average position of investors is reported at 71.19%, with 52.80% fully invested [21]. - A significant portion of investors (43.13%) is experiencing losses of less than 20%, while 5.56% have profits exceeding 50% [23].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In Q3 2025, infrastructure REITs sectors showed a pattern of intensified differentiation, both between sectors and within different projects of the same sector [3]. - The affordable housing sector was the most stable, with most projects achieving positive revenue growth due to rising occupancy rates and rents. The municipal environmental protection sector also performed well, with overall revenue indicators rising year - on - year, showing a trend of increasing volume and price. In contrast, the industrial park sector continued to decline, with supply - demand imbalance remaining a major problem. The warehousing sector faced marginal pressure, and the energy sector's operating data in Q3 was also poor [3]. - After the release of REITs Q3 reports, the differentiation in operating performance was also reflected in the secondary - market. Pay continuous attention to the structural opportunities of high - quality targets supported by oversold repair and institutional allocation demand. Oversold repair and institutional allocation demand are still important supports for the REITs market, but opportunities are mainly concentrated in high - quality projects, and weak projects may face a supplementary decline. Also, pay attention to the rhythm of market repair and prevent the risk of oversold repair turning into over - rising [3]. Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs 1. Affordable Housing - The affordable housing sector maintained stable operations with strong bond - like attributes. Most projects achieved positive revenue growth, but some market - oriented rental projects had controllable performance fluctuations. For example, the Beijing affordable housing project's new expansion assets significantly increased revenue, while the Shenzhen Anju and Suzhou Hengtai projects saw a decline in EBITDA [6]. - Specific projects' data on revenue, EBITDA, distributable amount, occupancy rate, rent pricing, and other indicators are presented in detail in Figures 1, 2, and 3 [7][8][9]. 2. Warehousing - The warehousing sector faced marginal pressure. Projects with a high proportion of related - party transactions had relatively more stable operating performance, while market - oriented projects were affected by new warehouse entries. For example, in the CICC Puluosi, Huaxia Shenguoji, and Huatai Zijin Baowan projects, occupancy rates fluctuated due to new supplies [10]. - The SF project's operation was stable, but its profitability indicators weakened due to the cancellation of lease contracts by former tenants. The occupancy rate of the Hongtu Innovation Yantian Port REIT in Q3 2025 declined marginally due to a tenant's early termination of business [10]. - Figures 4, 5, 6, and 7 show detailed data on the profitability and operating indicators of warehousing projects [11][12][13][14]. 3. Consumption - The consumption sector remained stable overall, with most projects actively adjusting and reforming, and most revenue indicators rising. However, some projects with a high correlation between rent and performance had a slight decline in profitability due to seasonal factors. For example, the Shouchuang Outlet project had a slow - sales season in spring and summer, but its cumulative operating data in 2025 exceeded the comparable forecast data in the project's issuance - stage evaluation report [15]. 4. Industrial Park - Not provided in the given content 5. Transportation - Not provided in the given content 6. Energy - Not provided in the given content 7. Municipal Environmental Protection - Not provided in the given content 8. New Infrastructure - Not provided in the given content 9. Investment Suggestions - Not provided in the given content

Market Overview - The market is currently experiencing a mixed performance, with traditional sectors like coal, banking, and food and beverage providing support, while a significant number of stocks are declining, with 4,171 stocks in the red [1][3][6] - The A-share market is showing signs of volatility post-holiday, with trading volumes generally decreasing, indicating a cautious sentiment among investors [5][11] Sector Performance - Traditional sectors such as banking, non-bank financials, coal, liquor, and beverages are performing well, while sectors like rare earth permanent magnets, steel, and precious metals are seeing significant declines [6][13] - Technology stocks, particularly in the semiconductor sector, are facing selling pressure, with notable declines in stocks like Sanhua Intelligent Control and others [6][9] Trading Volume and Investor Sentiment - Trading volumes have shown a downward trend, with daily transaction amounts fluctuating between 1.95 trillion and 2.67 trillion yuan over the past week [5][11] - Investor sentiment is characterized by a mix of caution due to economic recovery concerns and the potential for policy support, leading to a "top and bottom" oscillation pattern in the market [5][11] Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue its oscillatory behavior in the short term, with potential risks from external environments, shrinking trading volumes, and adjustments in high-valuation sectors [12][15] - Analysts suggest that the market may stabilize and trend upwards if trade conditions improve and if the performance of technology stocks exceeds expectations following the third-quarter earnings reports [14][15]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the impact of the US tariff increase on the building materials sector, suggesting a focus on domestic demand and potential recovery of oversold stocks [5][6] - Cement shipments are showing continuous recovery, while glass inventory continues to decline, indicating a positive trend in the market [6][7] - The report highlights the importance of infrastructure chains under the expectation of increased domestic demand, recommending companies like China Liansu, Huaxin Cement, and Anhui Conch Cement [5][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Basic Situation - Cement: After the Qingming Festival, the national cement enterprise shipment rate is approximately 48%, a 1 percentage point increase month-on-month but a 3 percentage point decrease year-on-year. The national cement price has decreased by 0.2% month-on-month [6][25] - Glass: The price of float glass has seen slight increases, with overall inventory continuing to decline. The production capacity remains stable, and the supply-demand structure is near balance [7][37] Infrastructure and Stock Chains - The report stresses the need to focus on infrastructure chains due to trade friction, recommending companies with strong fundamentals such as Huaxin Cement and Anhui Conch Cement. The demand for building materials is expected to improve in 2025, particularly in the second-hand housing market [5][8] Fiberglass and Wind Power Chains - The fiberglass sector is benefiting from the demand for wind power and thermoplastics, with significant profit growth expected in the first quarter. Companies like China Jushi and Zhongcai Technology are highlighted as key players [8][45]